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Early-warning tools to forecast General Government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal Indicators

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Abstract

In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts' figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts' movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms.

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Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2005/14.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2005_14

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Keywords: Leading indicators; Fiscal forecasting and monitoring; General Government Deficit; European Monetary Union;

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  3. Lutz Kilian & Atsushi Inoue, 2002. "In-Sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?," Working Paper Series 195, European Central Bank.
  4. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Ana Lamo, 2002. "Short-term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline," Working Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
  5. MOULIN, Laurent & SALTO, Matteo & SILVESTRINI, Andrea & VEREDAS, David, 2004. "Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficits : the case of France," CORE Discussion Papers 2004048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1989. "A composite approach to forecasting state government revenues: Case study of the Idaho sales tax," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 373-380.
  7. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  8. repec:fth:eeccco:137 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Isabel Argimón & Francisco Martí, 2007. "Available data on-budget and off-budget activities of Spanish central, state and local governments," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 43-54, December.

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