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Early-warning tools to forecast General Government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal Indicators

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Author Info
Javier J. Pérez () (Centro de Estudios Andaluces)

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Abstract

In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts' figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts' movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2005/14.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2005_14

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Related research
Keywords: Leading indicators Fiscal forecasting and monitoring General Government Deficit European Monetary Union

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1989. "A composite approach to forecasting state government revenues: Case study of the Idaho sales tax," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 373-380. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  5. Keereman, F., 1999. "The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 137, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Isabel Argimón & Francisco Martí, 2007. "Available data on-budget and off-budget activities of Spanish central, state and local governments," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 43-54, December. [Downloadable!]
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