Early-warning tools to forecast General Government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal Indicators
AbstractIn this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts' figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts' movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2005/14.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Leading indicators; Fiscal forecasting and monitoring; General Government Deficit; European Monetary Union;
Other versions of this item:
- Javier J. Pérez, 2005. "Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators," Working Paper Series 497, European Central Bank.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-08-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2005-08-03 (European Economics)
- NEP-FIN-2005-08-03 (Finance)
- NEP-FOR-2005-08-03 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2005-08-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2005-08-03 (Public Economics)
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