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Nonlinear State-Space Models for Microeconometric Panel Data

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  • Heiss, Florian

Abstract

In applied microeconometric panel data analyses, time-constant random effects and first-order Markov chains are the most prevalent structures to account for intertemporal correlations in limited dependent variable models. An example from health economics shows that the addition of a simple autoregressive error terms leads to a more plausible and parsimonious model which also captures the dynamic features better. The computational problems encountered in the estimation of such models - and a broader class formulated in the framework of nonlinear state space models - hampers their widespread use. This paper discusses the application of different nonlinear filtering approaches developed in the time-series literature to these models and suggests that a straightforward algorithm based on sequential Gaussian quadrature can be expected to perform well in this setting. This conjecture is impressively confirmed by an extensive analysis of the example application.

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File URL: http://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1157/1/Heiss_WP2006-22.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 1157.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:1157

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Keywords: LDV models; panel data; state space; numerical integration; health;

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References

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  1. Florian Heiss & Axel Börsch-Supan & Michael Hurd & David A. Wise, 2009. "Pathways to Disability: Predicting Health Trajectories," NBER Chapters, in: Health at Older Ages: The Causes and Consequences of Declining Disability among the Elderly, pages 105-150 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  3. Tanizaki, Hisashi & Mariano, Roberto S, 1994. "Prediction, Filtering and Smoothing in Non-linear and Non-normal Cases Using Monte Carlo Integration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 163-79, April-Jun.
  4. Hess, Stephane & Train, Kenneth E. & Polak, John W., 2006. "On the use of a Modified Latin Hypercube Sampling (MLHS) method in the estimation of a Mixed Logit Model for vehicle choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 147-163, February.
  5. Bo E. Honoré & Elie Tamer, 2006. "Bounds on Parameters in Panel Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 611-629, 05.
  6. Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-64, May.
  7. Heiss, Florian & Winschel, Viktor, 2006. "Estimation with Numerical Integration on Sparse Grids," Discussion Papers in Economics 916, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  8. V.A. Hajivassiliou & P. A. Ruud, 1993. "Classical Estimation Methods for LDV Models Using Simulation," Econometrics 9311002, EconWPA.
  9. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1997. "Simulated maximum likelihood estimation of dynamic discrete choice statistical models some Monte Carlo results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-35.
  10. Danielsson, J & Richard, J-F, 1993. "Accelerated Gaussian Importance Sampler with Application to Dynamic Latent Variable Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S153-73, Suppl. De.
  11. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54.
  12. Paul Contoyannis & Andrew M. Jones & Nigel Rice, 2004. "The dynamics of health in the British Household Panel Survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 473-503.
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Cited by:
  1. Heiss, Florian & Börsch-Supan, Axel & Hurd, Michael & Wise, David, 2006. "Pathways to Disability: Predicting Health Trajectories," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-30, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  2. Florian Heiss & Daniel McFadden & Joachim Winter, 2007. "Mind the Gap! Consumer Perceptions and Choices of Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans," NBER Working Papers 13627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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