The paper considers transitions in the health and disability status of persons as they age. In particular, we explore the relationship between health and disability at younger ages (say 50) and health and disability in future ages. We consider for example, the future health path of persons who are in good health at age 50 compared to the future health path of persons who are in poor health at age 50. To do this, we develop a model that jointly considers health and mortality. The key feature of the model is the assumption of underlying “latent” health that determines both mortality and self-reported responses to categorical health and disability questions. Latent health allows for heterogeneity among individuals and allows for correlation of health status over time, thus allowing for state dependence as well as heterogeneity. The model also allows for classification errors in self-reported response to categorical health and disability questions. All of these are important features of health and disability data, as we show with descriptive data. The model accommodates the strong relationship between self-reported health status and mortality, which is critical to an understanding of the paths of health and disability of the survivors who are observed in panel data files. Our empirical analysis is based on all four cohorts of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) -- the HRS, AHEAD, CODA and WB cohorts). We find that self-reported health and self-reported disability correspond very closely to one another in the HRS. We find that both self-reported health and disability are strong predictors of mortality. Health and disability at younger ages are strongly related to future health and disability paths of persons as they age. There are important differences in health and disability paths by education level, race, and gender.
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Paper provided by Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim in its series MEA discussion paper series with number
07131.
Length: Date of creation: 03 Jul 2007 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:07131
Contact details of provider: Postal: MEA - Mannheimer Forschungsinstitut Ökonomie und Demographischer Wandel, L13, 17, University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim Phone: +49/621/181.1862 Fax: +49/621/181.1863 Web page: http://www.mea.uni-mannheim.de/
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Michael D. Hurd & Daniel McFadden & Angela Merrill, 2001.
"Predictors of Mortality among the Elderly,"
NBER Chapters,
in: Themes in the Economics of Aging, pages 171-198
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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