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Stochastic Population Analysis: A Functional Data Approach

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  • Lei Fang
  • Wolfgang K. Härdle

Abstract

Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines ideas of functional principal component analysis (fPCA), nonparametric smoothing and time series analysis. Based on this stochastic approach, the demographic characteristics and trends in different Asian regions are calculated and compared. We illustrate that China and Japan exhibited a similar demographic trend in the past decade. We also compared the HU method with the LC model. The HU method can explain more variation of the demographic dynamics when we have data of high quality, however, it also encounters problems and performs similarly as the LC model when we deal with limited and scarce data sets, such as Chinese data sets due to the substandard quality of the data and the population policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Fang & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2015. "Stochastic Population Analysis: A Functional Data Approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-007, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman, 2016. "Grouped functional time series forecasting: An application to age-specific mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Lei Fang & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Juhyun Park, 2016. "A Mortality Model for Multi-populations A Semi-Parametric Approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Functional principal component analysis; Nonparametric smoothing; Mortality forecasting; Fertility forecasting; Asian demography; Lee-Carter model; Hyndman-Ullah method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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