IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v299y2021ics030626192100605x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel hybrid load forecasting framework with intelligent feature engineering and optimization algorithm in smart grid

Author

Listed:
  • Hafeez, Ghulam
  • Khan, Imran
  • Jan, Sadaqat
  • Shah, Ibrar Ali
  • Khan, Farrukh Aslam
  • Derhab, Abdelouahid

Abstract

Real-time, accurate, and stable forecasting plays a vital role in making strategic decisions in the smart grid (SG). This ensures economic savings, effective planning, and reliable and secure power system operation. However, accurate and stable forecasting is challenging due to the uncertain and intermittent electric load behavior. In this context, a rigid forecasting model with assertive stochastic and non-linear behavior capturing abilities is needed. Thus, a support vector regression (SVR) model emerged to cater the non-linear time-series predictions. However, it suffers from computational complexity and hard-to-tune appropriate parameters problem. Due to these problems, forecasting results of SVR are not as accurate as required. To solve such problems, a novel hybrid approach is developed by integrating feature engineering (FE) and modified fire-fly optimization (mFFO) algorithm with SVR, namely FE-SVR-mFFO forecasting framework. FE eliminates redundant and irrelevant features to ensure high computational efficiency. The mFFO algorithm obtains and tunes the SVR model’s appropriate parameters to effectively avoid trapping into local optimum and returns accurate forecasting results. Besides, most literature studies are focused on forecast accuracy improvement. However, the forecasting model’s effectiveness and productiveness are determined equally by its stability and convergence rate. Considering only one objective (accuracy or stability or convergence rate) is inadequate; thus, the proposed FE-SVR-mFFO forecasting framework achieves these three relatively independent objectives simultaneously. To evaluate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed framework, real half-hourly load data of five states of Australia (New South Wales (NSW), Queensland (QLD), South Australia (SA), Tasmania (TAS), and Victoria (VIC)) are employed as a case study. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms benchmark frameworks like EMD-SVR-PSO, FS-TSFE-CBSSO, VMD-FFT-IOSVR, and DCP-SVM-WO in terms of accuracy, stability, and convergence rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafeez, Ghulam & Khan, Imran & Jan, Sadaqat & Shah, Ibrar Ali & Khan, Farrukh Aslam & Derhab, Abdelouahid, 2021. "A novel hybrid load forecasting framework with intelligent feature engineering and optimization algorithm in smart grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:299:y:2021:i:c:s030626192100605x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117178
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192100605X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117178?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Yuanyuan & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Ge & Dong, Yao, 2012. "Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 284-294.
    2. Wei-Chiang Hong & Guo-Feng Fan, 2019. "Hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition with Support Vector Regression Model for Short Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    3. Yu, Feng & Xu, Xiaozhong, 2014. "A short-term load forecasting model of natural gas based on optimized genetic algorithm and improved BP neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 102-113.
    4. Jiang, Ping & Li, Ranran & Liu, Ningning & Gao, Yuyang, 2020. "A novel composite electricity demand forecasting framework by data processing and optimized support vector machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    5. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Ma, Xin & Zhou, Hanmi & Zhang, Fucang, 2020. "Hybrid support vector machines with heuristic algorithms for prediction of daily diffuse solar radiation in air-polluted regions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 2034-2045.
    6. Dai, Yeming & Zhao, Pei, 2020. "A hybrid load forecasting model based on support vector machine with intelligent methods for feature selection and parameter optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    7. Lin, Whei-Min & Gow, Hong-Jey & Tsai, Ming-Tang, 2010. "An enhanced radial basis function network for short-term electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3226-3234, October.
    8. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Kequan & Lu, Haiyan, 2016. "Research and application of a hybrid model based on multi-objective optimization for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 213-233.
    9. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hongqi & Liang, Xifeng & Li, Yanfei, 2015. "New wind speed forecasting approaches using fast ensemble empirical model decomposition, genetic algorithm, Mind Evolutionary Algorithm and Artificial Neural Networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1066-1075.
    10. Ghulam Hafeez & Khurram Saleem Alimgeer & Zahid Wadud & Zeeshan Shafiq & Mohammad Usman Ali Khan & Imran Khan & Farrukh Aslam Khan & Abdelouahid Derhab, 2020. "A Novel Accurate and Fast Converging Deep Learning-Based Model for Electrical Energy Consumption Forecasting in a Smart Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-25, May.
    11. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    12. Cao, Guohua & Wu, Lijuan, 2016. "Support vector regression with fruit fly optimization algorithm for seasonal electricity consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 734-745.
    13. Wang, Jianzhou & Song, Yiliao & Liu, Feng & Hou, Ru, 2016. "Analysis and application of forecasting models in wind power integration: A review of multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 960-981.
    14. Masa-Bote, D. & Castillo-Cagigal, M. & Matallanas, E. & Caamaño-Martín, E. & Gutiérrez, A. & Monasterio-Huelín, F. & Jiménez-Leube, J., 2014. "Improving photovoltaics grid integration through short time forecasting and self-consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 103-113.
    15. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Liang, Tulu & Wang, Chen, 2016. "A combined model based on multiple seasonal patterns and modified firefly algorithm for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 135-153.
    16. Ghadimi, Noradin & Akbarimajd, Adel & Shayeghi, Hossein & Abedinia, Oveis, 2018. "Two stage forecast engine with feature selection technique and improved meta-heuristic algorithm for electricity load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 130-142.
    17. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
    18. Yildiz, B. & Bilbao, J.I. & Sproul, A.B., 2017. "A review and analysis of regression and machine learning models on commercial building electricity load forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1104-1122.
    19. Hafeez, Ghulam & Alimgeer, Khurram Saleem & Khan, Imran, 2020. "Electric load forecasting based on deep learning and optimized by heuristic algorithm in smart grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    20. Raza, Muhammad Qamar & Khosravi, Abbas, 2015. "A review on artificial intelligence based load demand forecasting techniques for smart grid and buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1352-1372.
    21. Dordonnat, V. & Pichavant, A. & Pierrot, A., 2016. "GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load forecasting using time series and semi-parametric regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1005-1011.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ihab Taleb & Guillaume Guerard & Frédéric Fauberteau & Nga Nguyen, 2022. "A Flexible Deep Learning Method for Energy Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Farah Mohammad & Kashif Saleem & Jalal Al-Muhtadi, 2023. "Ensemble-Learning-Based Decision Support System for Energy-Theft Detection in Smart-Grid Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Xie, Haonan & Jiang, Meihui & Zhang, Dongdong & Goh, Hui Hwang & Ahmad, Tanveer & Liu, Hui & Liu, Tianhao & Wang, Shuyao & Wu, Thomas, 2023. "IntelliSense technology in the new power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Hassani, Hossein & Razavi-Far, Roozbeh & Saif, Mehrdad, 2022. "Real-time out-of-step prediction control to prevent emerging blackouts in power systems: A reinforcement learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    5. Rehan Akram & Nasir Ayub & Imran Khan & Fahad R. Albogamy & Gul Rukh & Sheraz Khan & Muhammad Shiraz & Kashif Rizwan, 2021. "Towards Big Data Electricity Theft Detection Based on Improved RUSBoost Classifiers in Smart Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Wang, Xiao & Sun, Xiao-Xue & Chu, Shu-Chuan & Watada, Junzo & Pan, Jeng-Shyang, 2023. "Improved butterfly optimization algorithm applied to prediction of combined cycle power plant," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 337-353.
    7. Fanidhar Dewangan & Almoataz Y. Abdelaziz & Monalisa Biswal, 2023. "Load Forecasting Models in Smart Grid Using Smart Meter Information: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-55, January.
    8. Huang, Yanmei & Hasan, Najmul & Deng, Changrui & Bao, Yukun, 2022. "Multivariate empirical mode decomposition based hybrid model for day-ahead peak load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    9. Laouafi, Abderrezak & Laouafi, Farida & Boukelia, Taqiy Eddine, 2022. "An adaptive hybrid ensemble with pattern similarity analysis and error correction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    10. Yi Liang & Yingying Fan & Yongfang Peng & Haigang An, 2022. "Smart Grid Project Benefit Evaluation Based on a Hybrid Intelligent Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, September.
    11. Hisham Alghamdi & Ghulam Hafeez & Sajjad Ali & Safeer Ullah & Muhammad Iftikhar Khan & Sadia Murawwat & Lyu-Guang Hua, 2023. "An Integrated Model of Deep Learning and Heuristic Algorithm for Load Forecasting in Smart Grid," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-22, November.
    12. Wu, Han & Liang, Yan & Heng, Jiani, 2023. "Pulse-diagnosis-inspired multi-feature extraction deep network for short-term electricity load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    13. Bo Hu & Jian Xu & Zuoxia Xing & Pengfei Zhang & Jia Cui & Jinglu Liu, 2022. "Short-Term Combined Forecasting Method of Park Load Based on CEEMD-MLR-LSSVR-SBO," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, April.
    14. Yu, Binbin & Li, Jianjing & Liu, Che & Sun, Bo, 2022. "A novel short-term electrical load forecasting framework with intelligent feature engineering," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    15. Wang, Jianzhou & Gao, Jialu & Wei, Danxiang, 2022. "Electric load prediction based on a novel combined interval forecasting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    16. Che, Jinxing & Yuan, Fang & Zhu, Suling & Yang, Youlong, 2022. "An adaptive ensemble framework with representative subset based weight correction for short-term forecast of peak power load," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    17. Dai, Yeming & Yang, Xinyu & Leng, Mingming, 2022. "Forecasting power load: A hybrid forecasting method with intelligent data processing and optimized artificial intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    18. Hany Habbak & Mohamed Mahmoud & Khaled Metwally & Mostafa M. Fouda & Mohamed I. Ibrahem, 2023. "Load Forecasting Techniques and Their Applications in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-33, February.
    19. Sajawal ur Rehman Khan & Israa Adil Hayder & Muhammad Asif Habib & Mudassar Ahmad & Syed Muhammad Mohsin & Farrukh Aslam Khan & Kainat Mustafa, 2022. "Enhanced Machine-Learning Techniques for Medium-Term and Short-Term Electric-Load Forecasting in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zulfiqar, M. & Kamran, M. & Rasheed, M.B. & Alquthami, T. & Milyani, A.H., 2023. "A hybrid framework for short term load forecasting with a navel feature engineering and adaptive grasshopper optimization in smart grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
    2. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Kequan & Lu, Haiyan, 2016. "Research and application of a hybrid model based on multi-objective optimization for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 213-233.
    3. Chengshi Tian & Yan Hao, 2018. "A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, March.
    4. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    5. Yuqi Dong & Xuejiao Ma & Chenchen Ma & Jianzhou Wang, 2016. "Research and Application of a Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Data Decomposition for Electrical Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-30, December.
    6. Xuejiao Ma & Dandan Liu, 2016. "Comparative Study of Hybrid Models Based on a Series of Optimization Algorithms and Their Application in Energy System Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-34, August.
    7. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Liang, Tulu & Wang, Chen, 2016. "A combined model based on multiple seasonal patterns and modified firefly algorithm for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 135-153.
    8. Ping Jiang & Zeng Wang & Kequan Zhang & Wendong Yang, 2017. "An Innovative Hybrid Model Based on Data Pre-Processing and Modified Optimization Algorithm and Its Application in Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-29, July.
    9. Hu, Yi & Qu, Boyang & Wang, Jie & Liang, Jing & Wang, Yanli & Yu, Kunjie & Li, Yaxin & Qiao, Kangjia, 2021. "Short-term load forecasting using multimodal evolutionary algorithm and random vector functional link network based ensemble learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    10. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Li, Qin & Pei, Ling-Ling, 2018. "A seasonal GM(1,1) model for forecasting the electricity consumption of the primary economic sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 522-534.
    11. Yechi Zhang & Jianzhou Wang & Haiyan Lu, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Combined Model Based on Multiobjective Optimization for Multistep-Ahead Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-27, May.
    12. Wang, Jianzhou & Heng, Jiani & Xiao, Liye & Wang, Chen, 2017. "Research and application of a combined model based on multi-objective optimization for multi-step ahead wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 591-613.
    13. Wang, Jianzhou & Yang, Wendong & Du, Pei & Li, Yifan, 2018. "Research and application of a hybrid forecasting framework based on multi-objective optimization for electrical power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 59-78.
    14. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Yu, Mengxia & Ma, Jing & Jin, Congjun, 2017. "Research and application of a hybrid wavelet neural network model with the improved cuckoo search algorithm for electrical power system forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 203-222.
    15. Kailai Ni & Jianzhou Wang & Guangyu Tang & Danxiang Wei, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network for Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study in Australia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-30, June.
    16. Dai, Yeming & Yang, Xinyu & Leng, Mingming, 2022. "Forecasting power load: A hybrid forecasting method with intelligent data processing and optimized artificial intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    17. Zhu, Jizhong & Dong, Hanjiang & Zheng, Weiye & Li, Shenglin & Huang, Yanting & Xi, Lei, 2022. "Review and prospect of data-driven techniques for load forecasting in integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    18. Lozinskaia, Agata & Redkina, Anastasiia & Shenkman, Evgeniia, 2020. "Electricity consumption forecasting for integrated power system with seasonal patterns," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 60, pages 5-25.
    19. Yang, Wendong & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Du, Pei, 2019. "A hybrid forecasting system based on a dual decomposition strategy and multi-objective optimization for electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1205-1225.
    20. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Yu, Mengxia & Ma, Jing & Jin, Congjun, 2017. "Research and application of a combined model based on multi-objective optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1057-1074.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:299:y:2021:i:c:s030626192100605x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.