IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v260y2020ics0306261919319300.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel composite electricity demand forecasting framework by data processing and optimized support vector machine

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Ping
  • Li, Ranran
  • Liu, Ningning
  • Gao, Yuyang

Abstract

Reliable forecast of electricity can encourage accessible and responsible information for scholars, policymakers, end-consumers and managers of the electricity market. Numerous electricity forecasting methods have been achieved commendably, the performance of which varies depending on numerical characteristics and operational conditions. In this study, the composite forecasting concept is introduced and implemented to show the potential of forecasting performance. This modeling concept is a remarkable ability to identify and measure any seasonal relationship that exists in electricity demand data. Moreover, it is available as a toolbox in many of the programming operation research. In the module of nonlinear time series decomposition, the noise disturbance is initially considered before extracting the seasonal variation to support the condition that the linear and stationary time series should be used for the seasonality identifying method. Also, we further provide a new insight of prediction intervals estimation to better reflect the uncertainties of the underlying challenging power system plan and operation. The results show that the proposed model can generate promising forecasts compared to the other combination schemata and it can be useful for both policy-makers and public agencies to guarantee the security and regulation of the power system.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Ping & Li, Ranran & Liu, Ningning & Gao, Yuyang, 2020. "A novel composite electricity demand forecasting framework by data processing and optimized support vector machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:260:y:2020:i:c:s0306261919319300
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114243
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919319300
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114243?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Yuanyuan & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Ge & Dong, Yao, 2012. "Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 284-294.
    2. AL-Musaylh, Mohanad S. & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Li, Yan & Adamowski, Jan F., 2018. "Two-phase particle swarm optimized-support vector regression hybrid model integrated with improved empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise for multiple-horizon electricity demand forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 422-439.
    3. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    4. Lahmiri, Salim, 2018. "Minute-ahead stock price forecasting based on singular spectrum analysis and support vector regression," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 444-451.
    5. Zahedi, Gholamreza & Azizi, Saeed & Bahadori, Alireza & Elkamel, Ali & Wan Alwi, Sharifah R., 2013. "Electricity demand estimation using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy network: A case study from the Ontario province – Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 323-328.
    6. Singh, Priyanka & Dwivedi, Pragya, 2018. "Integration of new evolutionary approach with artificial neural network for solving short term load forecast problem," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 537-549.
    7. Yimei Wang & Yongqian Liu & Li Li & David Infield & Shuang Han, 2018. "Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Clustering Pre-Calculated CFD Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, April.
    8. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hewson, Michael, 2015. "Wind speed and electricity demand correlation analysis in the Australian National Electricity Market: Determining wind turbine generators’ ability to meet electricity demand without energy storage," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 182-191.
    9. Lebotsa, Moshoko Emily & Sigauke, Caston & Bere, Alphonce & Fildes, Robert & Boylan, John E., 2018. "Short term electricity demand forecasting using partially linear additive quantile regression with an application to the unit commitment problem," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 104-118.
    10. Ghasemi, A. & Shayeghi, H. & Moradzadeh, M. & Nooshyar, M., 2016. "A novel hybrid algorithm for electricity price and load forecasting in smart grids with demand-side management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 40-59.
    11. Yang, Wendong & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Du, Pei, 2019. "A hybrid forecasting system based on a dual decomposition strategy and multi-objective optimization for electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1205-1225.
    12. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2016. "Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 384-390.
    13. Filippini, Massimo & Hirl, Bettina & Masiero, Giuliano, 2018. "Habits and rational behaviour in residential electricity demand," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 137-152.
    14. Shao, Zhen & Gao, Fei & Zhang, Qiang & Yang, Shan-Lin, 2015. "Multivariate statistical and similarity measure based semiparametric modeling of the probability distribution: A novel approach to the case study of mid-long term electricity consumption forecasting i," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 502-518.
    15. Fang, Tingting & Lahdelma, Risto, 2016. "Evaluation of a multiple linear regression model and SARIMA model in forecasting heat demand for district heating system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 544-552.
    16. Berk, K. & Hoffmann, A. & Müller, A., 2018. "Probabilistic forecasting of industrial electricity load with regime switching behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 147-162.
    17. Wu, Lifeng & Gao, Xiaohui & Xiao, Yanli & Yang, Yingjie & Chen, Xiangnan, 2018. "Using a novel multi-variable grey model to forecast the electricity consumption of Shandong Province in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 327-335.
    18. Zhang, Xiaobo & Wang, Jianzhou & Gao, Yuyang, 2019. "A hybrid short-term electricity price forecasting framework: Cuckoo search-based feature selection with singular spectrum analysis and SVM," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 899-913.
    19. Arora, Siddharth & Taylor, James W., 2018. "Rule-based autoregressive moving average models for forecasting load on special days: A case study for France," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 259-268.
    20. He, Feifei & Zhou, Jianzhong & Feng, Zhong-kai & Liu, Guangbiao & Yang, Yuqi, 2019. "A hybrid short-term load forecasting model based on variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory networks considering relevant factors with Bayesian optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 103-116.
    21. Jiang, Ping & Liu, Feng & Song, Yiliao, 2017. "A hybrid forecasting model based on date-framework strategy and improved feature selection technology for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 694-709.
    22. Zhao, Xuejing & Wang, Chen & Su, Jinxia & Wang, Jianzhou, 2019. "Research and application based on the swarm intelligence algorithm and artificial intelligence for wind farm decision system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 681-697.
    23. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "A trigonometric grey prediction approach to forecasting electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2839-2847.
    24. Günay, M. Erdem, 2016. "Forecasting annual gross electricity demand by artificial neural networks using predicted values of socio-economic indicators and climatic conditions: Case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 92-101.
    25. An, Ning & Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jianzhou & Shang, Duo & Zhao, Erdong, 2013. "Using multi-output feedforward neural network with empirical mode decomposition based signal filtering for electricity demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 279-288.
    26. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Danxiang Wei & Jianzhou Wang & Kailai Ni & Guangyu Tang, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network Combined with Fuzzy Time Series for Energy Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-38, September.
    2. Zhang, Wenyu & Zhang, Lifang & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "Hybrid system based on a multi-objective optimization and kernel approximation for multi-scale wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    3. Liu, Zhenkun & Jiang, Ping & Zhang, Lifang & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "A combined forecasting model for time series: Application to short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    4. Yang, Wendong & Sun, Shaolong & Hao, Yan & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "A novel machine learning-based electricity price forecasting model based on optimal model selection strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    5. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    6. Kailai Ni & Jianzhou Wang & Guangyu Tang & Danxiang Wei, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network for Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study in Australia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-30, June.
    7. Meng, Anbo & Zhu, Zibin & Deng, Weisi & Ou, Zuhong & Lin, Shan & Wang, Chenen & Xu, Xuancong & Wang, Xiaolin & Yin, Hao & Luo, Jianqiang, 2022. "A novel wind power prediction approach using multivariate variational mode decomposition and multi-objective crisscross optimization based deep extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    8. Dai, Yeming & Yang, Xinyu & Leng, Mingming, 2022. "Forecasting power load: A hybrid forecasting method with intelligent data processing and optimized artificial intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    9. Ma, Weiwu & Fang, Song & Liu, Gang & Zhou, Ruoyu, 2017. "Modeling of district load forecasting for distributed energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 181-205.
    10. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Wang, Zhi-Wei & Li, Qin, 2020. "Forecasting the industrial solar energy consumption using a novel seasonal GM(1,1) model with dynamic seasonal adjustment factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    11. Jiang, Ping & Liu, Zhenkun & Niu, Xinsong & Zhang, Lifang, 2021. "A combined forecasting system based on statistical method, artificial neural networks, and deep learning methods for short-term wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    12. Yang, Dongchuan & Guo, Ju-e & Li, Yanzhao & Sun, Shaolong & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Short-term load forecasting with an improved dynamic decomposition-reconstruction-ensemble approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    13. Du, Pei & Guo, Ju'e & Sun, Shaolong & Wang, Shouyang & Wu, Jing, 2022. "A novel two-stage seasonal grey model for residential electricity consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    14. Yechi Zhang & Jianzhou Wang & Haiyan Lu, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Combined Model Based on Multiobjective Optimization for Multistep-Ahead Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-27, May.
    15. Hamzacebi, Coskun & Es, Huseyin Avni, 2014. "Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using an optimized grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 165-171.
    16. Kaboli, S. Hr. Aghay & Selvaraj, J. & Rahim, N.A., 2016. "Long-term electric energy consumption forecasting via artificial cooperative search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 857-871.
    17. Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Sun, Xun & Zhao, Weigang & Mi, Zhifu & Wang, Bing & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Forecasting China’s regional energy demand by 2030: A Bayesian approach," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 85-95.
    18. Jasiński, Tomasz, 2020. "Use of new variables based on air temperature for forecasting day-ahead spot electricity prices using deep neural networks: A new approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    19. Wang, Jianzhou & Wang, Shiqi & Yang, Wendong, 2019. "A novel non-linear combination system for short-term wind speed forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1172-1192.
    20. Li, Chen, 2020. "Designing a short-term load forecasting model in the urban smart grid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:260:y:2020:i:c:s0306261919319300. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.