IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v115y2016ip1p734-745.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Support vector regression with fruit fly optimization algorithm for seasonal electricity consumption forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Cao, Guohua
  • Wu, Lijuan

Abstract

Accurate monthly electricity consumption forecasting can provide the reliable guidance for better energy planning and administration. However, it has been found that the monthly electricity consumption demonstrates a complex nonlinear characteristic and an obvious seasonal tendency. Support vector regression has been widely applied to handle nonlinear time series prediction, but it suffers from the key parameters selection and the influence of seasonal tendency. This paper proposes a novel approach, which hybridizes support vector regression model with fruit fly optimization algorithm and the seasonal index adjustment to forecast monthly electricity consumption. Besides, in order to comprehensively evaluate the forecasting performance of the hybrid model, a small sample of monthly electricity consumption of China and a large sample of monthly electricity retail sales of the United States were employed to demonstrate the forecasting performance. The results show that the proposed hybrid approach is a viable option for the electricity consumption forecasting applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Cao, Guohua & Wu, Lijuan, 2016. "Support vector regression with fruit fly optimization algorithm for seasonal electricity consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 734-745.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:115:y:2016:i:p1:p:734-745
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.09.065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216313068
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2016.09.065?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abdel-Aal, R.E. & Al-Garni, A.Z. & Al-Nassar, Y.N., 1997. "Modelling and forecasting monthly electric energy consumption in eastern Saudi Arabia using abductive networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 911-921.
    2. Deo, Rohit & Hurvich, Clifford & Lu, Yi, 2006. "Forecasting realized volatility using a long-memory stochastic volatility model: estimation, prediction and seasonal adjustment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 29-58.
    3. Ko, Chia-Nan & Lee, Cheng-Ming, 2013. "Short-term load forecasting using SVR (support vector regression)-based radial basis function neural network with dual extended Kalman filter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 413-422.
    4. Hu, Zhongyi & Bao, Yukun & Chiong, Raymond & Xiong, Tao, 2015. "Mid-term interval load forecasting using multi-output support vector regression with a memetic algorithm for feature selection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 419-431.
    5. Ganesan, P. & Rajakarunakaran, S. & Thirugnanasambandam, M. & Devaraj, D., 2015. "Artificial neural network model to predict the diesel electric generator performance and exhaust emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 115-124.
    6. Taghavifar, Hamid & Mardani, Aref & Karim Maslak, Haleh, 2015. "A comparative study between artificial neural networks and support vector regression for modeling of the dissipated energy through tire-obstacle collision dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 358-364.
    7. Dong, Zibo & Yang, Dazhi & Reindl, Thomas & Walsh, Wilfred M., 2015. "A novel hybrid approach based on self-organizing maps, support vector regression and particle swarm optimization to forecast solar irradiance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 570-577.
    8. Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2011. "Electric load forecasting by seasonal recurrent SVR (support vector regression) with chaotic artificial bee colony algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5568-5578.
    9. Pan Duan & Kaigui Xie & Tingting Guo & Xiaogang Huang, 2011. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electric Power Systems Using the PSO-SVR and FCM Clustering Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, January.
    10. Zhang, G. Peter & Qi, Min, 2005. "Neural network forecasting for seasonal and trend time series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 501-514, January.
    11. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    12. Wang, Jianjun & Li, Li & Niu, Dongxiao & Tan, Zhongfu, 2012. "An annual load forecasting model based on support vector regression with differential evolution algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 65-70.
    13. Hongze Li & Sen Guo & Huiru Zhao & Chenbo Su & Bao Wang, 2012. "Annual Electric Load Forecasting by a Least Squares Support Vector Machine with a Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(11), pages 1-16, November.
    14. Pappas, S.Sp. & Ekonomou, L. & Karamousantas, D.Ch. & Chatzarakis, G.E. & Katsikas, S.K. & Liatsis, P., 2008. "Electricity demand loads modeling using AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1353-1360.
    15. Zhou, Zhong-bing & Dong, Xiu-cheng, 2012. "Analysis about the seasonality of China's crude oil import based on X-12-ARIMA," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 281-288.
    16. Che, Jinxing & Wang, Jianzhou & Wang, Guangfu, 2012. "An adaptive fuzzy combination model based on self-organizing map and support vector regression for electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 657-664.
    17. Zhang, Wen Yu & Hong, Wei-Chiang & Dong, Yucheng & Tsai, Gary & Sung, Jing-Tian & Fan, Guo-feng, 2012. "Application of SVR with chaotic GASA algorithm in cyclic electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 850-858.
    18. Abdel-Aal, R.E. & Al-Garni, A.Z., 1997. "Forecasting monthly electric energy consumption in eastern Saudi Arabia using univariate time-series analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1059-1069.
    19. Wei-Chiang Hong & Yucheng Dong & Chien-Yuan Lai & Li-Yueh Chen & Shih-Yung Wei, 2011. "SVR with Hybrid Chaotic Immune Algorithm for Seasonal Load Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(6), pages 1-18, June.
    20. Taghavifar, Hamid & Mardani, Aref, 2014. "A comparative trend in forecasting ability of artificial neural networks and regressive support vector machine methodologies for energy dissipation modeling of off-road vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 569-576.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    2. Deb, Chirag & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Junjing & Lee, Siew Eang & Shah, Kwok Wei, 2017. "A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 902-924.
    3. Ma, Weiwu & Fang, Song & Liu, Gang & Zhou, Ruoyu, 2017. "Modeling of district load forecasting for distributed energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 181-205.
    4. Zhang, Wen Yu & Hong, Wei-Chiang & Dong, Yucheng & Tsai, Gary & Sung, Jing-Tian & Fan, Guo-feng, 2012. "Application of SVR with chaotic GASA algorithm in cyclic electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 850-858.
    5. Deihimi, Ali & Orang, Omid & Showkati, Hemen, 2013. "Short-term electric load and temperature forecasting using wavelet echo state networks with neural reconstruction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 382-401.
    6. He, Yaoyao & Zheng, Yaya, 2018. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on Yeo-Johnson transformation quantile regression and Gaussian kernel function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 143-156.
    7. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    8. Zhu, L. & Li, M.S. & Wu, Q.H. & Jiang, L., 2015. "Short-term natural gas demand prediction based on support vector regression with false neighbours filtered," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 428-436.
    9. Zhang, Wenbin & Tian, Lixin & Wang, Minggang & Zhen, Zaili & Fang, Guochang, 2016. "The evolution model of electricity market on the stable development in China and its dynamic analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 344-359.
    10. Son, Hyojoo & Kim, Changwan, 2017. "Short-term forecasting of electricity demand for the residential sector using weather and social variables," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 200-207.
    11. Min-Liang Huang, 2016. "Hybridization of Chaotic Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization with SVR in Electric Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, May.
    12. Guowei Cai & Wenjin Wang & Junhai Lu, 2016. "A Novel Hybrid Short Term Load Forecasting Model Considering the Error of Numerical Weather Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    13. Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2011. "Electric load forecasting by seasonal recurrent SVR (support vector regression) with chaotic artificial bee colony algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5568-5578.
    14. Cheng-Wen Lee & Bing-Yi Lin, 2016. "Application of Hybrid Quantum Tabu Search with Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-16, October.
    15. Lianhui Li & Chunyang Mu & Shaohu Ding & Zheng Wang & Runyang Mo & Yongfeng Song, 2015. "A Robust Weighted Combination Forecasting Method Based on Forecast Model Filtering and Adaptive Variable Weight Determination," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    16. Yan Hong Chen & Wei-Chiang Hong & Wen Shen & Ning Ning Huang, 2016. "Electric Load Forecasting Based on a Least Squares Support Vector Machine with Fuzzy Time Series and Global Harmony Search Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-13, January.
    17. de Oliveira, Erick Meira & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2018. "Forecasting mid-long term electric energy consumption through bagging ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 776-788.
    18. Azadeh, A. & Saberi, M. & Seraj, O., 2010. "An integrated fuzzy regression algorithm for energy consumption estimation with non-stationary data: A case study of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 2351-2366.
    19. Moting Su & Zongyi Zhang & Ye Zhu & Donglan Zha & Wenying Wen, 2019. "Data Driven Natural Gas Spot Price Prediction Models Using Machine Learning Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, May.
    20. Fanidhar Dewangan & Almoataz Y. Abdelaziz & Monalisa Biswal, 2023. "Load Forecasting Models in Smart Grid Using Smart Meter Information: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-55, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:115:y:2016:i:p1:p:734-745. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.