Underpriced Default Spread Exacerbates Market Crashes
AbstractIn this paper, we develop a specific observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the default spread in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using three different data sets for 18 countries and property types, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the underpricing economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced. Furthermore, only one of the countries in our sample continues to exhibit the underpricing symptom following a market crash. This indicates that market crashes have a cleansing effect and eliminate underpricing at least for a period of time. This makes investing in such markets safer following a negative demand shock.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Finance Working Papers with number 22458.
Date of creation: Jan 2006
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real estate bubble; lender optimism; disaster myopia; Asian financial crisis;
Other versions of this item:
- Winston T. H. Koh & Roberto S. Mariano & Andrey Pavlov & Sock Yong Phang & Augustine H. H. Tan & Susan M. Wachter, 2006. "Underpriced Default Spread Exacerbates Market Crashes," Working Papers 12-2006, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
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