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Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank

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  • Cabrero, Alberto
  • Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo
  • Hirsch, Astrid
  • Nieto, Fernando

Abstract

The main focus of this paper is to model the daily series of banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. The series of banknotes in circulation displays very marked seasonal patterns. To the best of our knowledge the empirical performance of two competing approaches to model seasonality in daily time series, namely the ARIMA-based approach and the Structural Time Series approach, has never been put to the test. The application presented in this paper provides valid intuition on the merits of each approach. The forecasting performance of the models is also assessed in the context of their impact on the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. JEL Classification: C22, C51, C53, C59

Suggested Citation

  • Cabrero, Alberto & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Hirsch, Astrid & Nieto, Fernando, 2002. "Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 142, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2002142
    Note: 337420
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Deinhammer, Harald & Ladi, Anna, 2017. "Modelling euro banknote quality in circulation," Occasional Paper Series 204, European Central Bank.
    2. Ioana Florentina SAVU, 2011. "Developing Partnership between National Bank of Romania and Universities," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(3), pages 565-574, July.
    3. Martin-Rodriguez, Gloria & Caceres-Hernandez, Jose Juan, 2012. "Forecasting weekly Canary tomato exports from annual surface data," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126364, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Ollech, Daniel, 2018. "Seasonal adjustment of daily time series," Discussion Papers 41/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Faruk Balli & Elsayed Mousa Elsamadisy, 2012. "Modelling the currency in circulation for the State of Qatar," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(4), pages 321-339, November.
    6. Antonio Noriega & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2013. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1243-1265, June.
    7. Ioana Florentina SAVU, 2011. "National Bank of Romania Management in Time of Financial Crisis," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(5), pages 1013-1021, December.
    8. Sylvestre, Julie & Coutinho, Cristina, 2020. "The use of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy instruments and its monetary policy implementation framework between the first quarter of 2018 and the fourth quarter of 2019," Occasional Paper Series 245, European Central Bank.
    9. Maroje Lang & Davor Kunovac & Silvio Basač & Željka Štaudinger, 2008. "Modelling of Currency outside Banks in Croatia," Working Papers 17, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    10. García, Juan R. & Pacce, Matías & Rodrigo, Tomasa & Ruiz de Aguirre, Pep & Ulloa, Camilo A., 2021. "Measuring and forecasting retail trade in real time using card transactional data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1235-1246.
    11. Fischer, Björn & Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future," Working Paper Series 330, European Central Bank.
    12. Diego Bodas & Juan R. García López & Tomasa Rodrigo López & Pep Ruiz de Aguirre & Camilo A. Ulloa & Juan Murillo Arias & Juan de Dios Romero Palop & Heribert Valero Lapaz & Matías J. Pacce, 2019. "Measuring retail trade using card transactional data," Working Papers 1921, Banco de España.
    13. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G., 2007. "Monetary policy implementation: A European Perspective," Discussion Papers 2007/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    14. Kaushik Bhattacharya & Sunny Kumar Singh, 2016. "Impact of Payment Technology on Seasonality of Currency in Circulation: Evidence from the USA and India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 117-136, June.
    15. Bindseil, Ulrich & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Hirsch, Astrid & Weller, Benedict, 2006. "Excess reserves and the implementation of monetary policy of the ECB," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 491-510, July.
    16. Halil Guler & Anil Talasli, 2010. "Modelling the Daily Currency in Circulation in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 10(1), pages 29-46.
    17. Bukhari, Syed Kalim Hyder & Abdul, Jalil & Rao, Nasir Hamid, 2011. "Detection and Forecasting of Islamic Calendar Effects in Time Series Data: Revisited," MPRA Paper 31124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Marek Hlavacek & Michael Konak & Josef Cada, 2005. "The Application of Structured Feedforward Neural Networks to the Modelling of Daily Series of Currency in Circulation," Working Papers 2005/11, Czech National Bank.
    19. Assenmacher, Katrin & Seitz, Franz & Tenhofen, Jörn, 2017. "The use of large denomination banknotes in Switzerland," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162917, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Webel, Karsten, 2022. "A review of some recent developments in the modelling and seasonal adjustment of infra-monthly time series," Discussion Papers 31/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Michael Wagner, 2010. "Forecasting Daily Demand in Cash Supply Chains," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 2(4), pages 377-383, November.
    22. Erica Rizziato, 2010. "La Formazione-sviluppo per la creazione di moderne comunità lavorative [Developmnt-training to create working communities]," CERIS Working Paper 201003, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    23. Mr. Romain M Veyrune & Shaoyu Guo, 2019. "Autonomous Factor Forecast Quality: The Case of the Eurosystem," IMF Working Papers 2019/296, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Bindseil, Ulrich, 2020. "Tiered CBDC and the financial system," Working Paper Series 2351, European Central Bank.
    25. Mariam El Hamiani Khatat, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Models of Currency Demand," IMF Working Papers 2018/028, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Daily Forecast; liquidity management; seasonality; time series models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other

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