Monetary policy expectations at the zero lower bound
AbstractObtaining monetary policy expectations from the yield curve is difficult near the zero lower bound (ZLB). Standard dynamic term structure models, which ignore the ZLB, can be misleading. Shadow-rate models are better suited for this purpose, because they account for the distributional asymmetry in projected short rates induced by the ZLB. Besides providing better interest rate fit and forecasts, our shadow-rate models deliver estimates of the future monetary policy liftoff from the ZLB that are closer to survey expectations. We also document significant improvements for inference about monetary policy expectations when macroeconomic factors are included in the term structure model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2013-18.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-08-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-08-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2013-08-16 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2013-08-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-08-16 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SPO-2013-08-16 (Sports & Economics)
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