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Measuring the stance of monetary policy in conventional and unconventional environments

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  • Leo Krippner

Abstract

This article introduces an idea for summarizing of the stance of monetary policy with quantities derived from a class of yield curve models that respect the zero lower bound constraint for interest rates. The “economic stimulus measure” aggregates the current and estimated expected path of interest rates relative to the neutral interest rate from the yield curve model. Unlike shadow short rates, economic stimulus measures are consistent and comparable across conventional and unconventional monetary policy environments, and are less subject to variation with modelling choices, as I demonstrate with two and three factor models estimated with different data sets. Full empirical testing of the inter-relationships between ES measures and macroeconomic data remains a topic for future work.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2014-06.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-06

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Keywords: Unconventional monetary policy; zero lower bound; shadow short rate; term structure model;

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  1. Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa & Jamel Jouini, 2003. "Structural breaks in the US inflation process," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 633-636.
  2. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Theoretically Consistent Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 39-59.
  3. Leo Krippner, 2013. "A tractable framework for zero-lower-bound Gaussian term structure models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Leo Krippner, 2012. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2012/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Leo Krippner, 2011. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound," CAMA Working Papers 2011-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  7. Gurkaynak, Refet S & Sack, Brian & Swanson, Eric T, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," MPRA Paper 820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Leo Krippner, 2009. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  9. Leo Krippner, 2013. "Faster solutions for Black zero lower bound term structure models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-66, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  10. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  11. Black, Fischer, 1995. " Interest Rates as Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1371-76, December.
  12. Leo Krippner, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Research Paper Series 226, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  13. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. repec:fip:fedlps:y:2012:i:nov8 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March.
  16. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, December.
  17. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Monetary policy expectations at the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2013-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  18. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
  19. Kim, Don H. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2012. "Term structure models and the zero bound: An empirical investigation of Japanese yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 32-49.
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