IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ime/imedps/17-e-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Term Structure Models with Negative Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Yoichi Ueno

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: youichi.ueno@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

This paper proposes a new term structure model to generalize the Gaussian affine model and the Black model with an efficient and accurate solution method. The new model assumes that arbitrage between money or reserves and government bonds works but not perfectly. The new model enables us to quantify the effects of forward guidance, quantitative easing, and the negative interest rate policy. Estimation results for Switzerland, Germany, and Japan show that the new model outperforms both the Gaussian affine model and the Black model. Moreover, the results indicate that the power of arbitrage moves in tandem with basis swap spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoichi Ueno, 2017. "Term Structure Models with Negative Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:17-e-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/17-E-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Black, Fischer, 1995. "Interest Rates as Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1371-1376, December.
    2. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.
    4. Krippner, Leo, 2013. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-138.
    5. Yoichi Ueno & Naohiko Baba & Yuji Sakurai, 2006. "The Use of the Black Model of Interest Rates as Options for Monitoring the JGB Market Expectations," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-15, Bank of Japan.
    6. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 226-259.
    7. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2007. "Equilibrium Interest Rate and the Yield Curve in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    8. Leo Krippner, 2013. "A tractable framework for zero lower bound Gaussian term structure models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2013/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2006. "Monetary Policy and the Yield Curve at Zero Interest: The Macro-Finance Model of Interest Rates as Options," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    10. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    11. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    12. Ichiue, Hibiki & Ueno, Yoichi, 2015. "Monetary policy and the yield curve at zero interest," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-12.
    13. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    14. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2013. "Estimating Term Premia at the Zero Bound: An Analysis of Japanese, US, and UK Yields," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fumihiko Arai & Yoshibumi Makabe & Yasunori Okawara & Teppei Nagano, 2016. "Recent Trends in Cross-currency Basis," Bank of Japan Review Series 16-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    17. Kim, Don H. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2012. "Term structure models and the zero bound: An empirical investigation of Japanese yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 32-49.
    18. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Masayuki Inui & Nao Sudo & Tomoaki Yamada, 2017. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on inequality in Japan," BIS Working Papers 642, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Kenji Suganuma & Yoichi Ueno, 2018. "The Effects of the Bank of Japan's Corporate and Government Bond Purchases on Credit Spreads," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Yoshihiko Hogen & Ryoichi Okuma, 2018. "The Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Japan: A Learning-Approach Perspective," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    4. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1637-1671, September.
    5. Yuto Iwasaki & Nao Sudo, 2017. "Myths and Observations on Unconventional Monetary Policy -- Takeaways from Post-Bubble Japan --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    6. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2021. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness under the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Yield Curve Dynamics in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2021-012, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    7. Kazuhiro Hiraki & Wataru Hirata, 2020. "Market-based Long-term Inflation Expectations in Japan: A Refinement on Breakeven Inflation Rates," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    8. Morita, Hiroshi, 2020. "Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Japanese Fiscal Policy under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-97, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Iwasaki, Yuto & Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2021. "Missing wage inflation? Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in a nonlinear DSGE model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda, 2022. "Why Aging Induces Deflation and Secular Stagnation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2022-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    11. Koeda, Junko, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing measures," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 121-141.
    12. Junko Koeda & Yoichi Ueno, 2022. "A Preferred Habitat View of Yield Curve Control," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    13. Nobuhiro Abe & Takuji Fueki & Sohei Kaihatsu, 2019. "Estimating a Markov Switching DSGE Model with Macroeconomic Policy Interaction," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-3, Bank of Japan.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    2. Leo Krippner, 2014. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in conventional and unconventional environments," CAMA Working Papers 2014-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 75-125, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes: An application to term structure modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 348-366.
    5. Leo Krippner, 2013. "A tractable framework for zero lower bound Gaussian term structure models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2013/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    7. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2017. "Term-structure modelling at the zero lower bound: Implications for estimating the forward term premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 100-106.
    8. Tsz-Kin Chung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Ka-Fai Li, 2015. "Term-Structure Modelling at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Estimating the Term Premium," Working Papers 212015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Marco J. Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2018. "A Shadow Policy Rate to Calibrate U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 305-346, December.
    10. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea L., 2016. "Below the zero lower bound: A shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Papers 32/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2015. "Understanding policy rates at the zero lower bound: insights from a Bayesian shadow rate model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1023, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2018. "A Survey-based Shadow Rate and Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    14. Andreasen, Martin M & Meldrum, Andrew, 2015. "Dynamic term structure models: the best way to enforce the zero lower bound in the United States," Bank of England working papers 550, Bank of England.
    15. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    16. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    17. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
    18. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    19. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2013. "Estimating Term Premia at the Zero Bound: An Analysis of Japanese, US, and UK Yields," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    20. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2022. "Nearly Exact Bayesian Estimation of Non-linear No-Arbitrage Term-Structure Models [Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 807-838.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term Structure Model; Monetary Policy; Negative Interest Rate; Basis Swap Spreads;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:17-e-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kinken (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.