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Factor Analysis Using Subspace Factor Models: Some Theoretical Results and an Application to UK Inflation Forecasting

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  • George Kapetanios

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

Abstract

Recent work in the macroeconometric literature considers the problem of summarising efficiently a large set of variables and using this summary for a variety of purposes including forecasting. Work in this field has been carried out in a series of recent papers. This paper provides an alternative method for estimating factors derived from a factor state space model. This model has a clear dynamic interpretation. Further, the method does not require iterative estimation techniques and due to a modification introduced, can accommodate cases where the number of variables exceeds the number of observations. The computational cost and robustness of the method is comparable to that of principal component analysis because matrix algebraic methods are used.

Suggested Citation

  • George Kapetanios, 2002. "Factor Analysis Using Subspace Factor Models: Some Theoretical Results and an Application to UK Inflation Forecasting," Working Papers 466, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:466
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    2. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    3. Jean-Marc Robin & Richard Smith, 2000. "Tests of rank," Post-Print hal-03587662, HAL.
    4. Robin, Jean-Marc & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Tests Of Rank," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 151-175, April.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2007. "Automatic Leading Indicators (ALIs) versus Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs): Comparison of Inflation and GDP growth Forecasting," EcoMod2007 23900072, EcoMod.
    3. George Kapetanios, 2002. "Modelling Core Inflation for the UK Using a New Dynamic Factor Estimation Method and a Large Disaggregated Price Index Dataset," Working Papers 471, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
    5. George Kapetanios, 2002. "Modelling Core Inflation for the UK Using a New Dynamic Factor Estimation Method and a Large Disaggregated Price Index Dataset," Working Papers 471, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor models; Subspace methods; State space models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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