Factor Analysis Using Subspace Factor Models: Some Theoretical Results and an Application to UK Inflation Forecasting
AbstractRecent work in the macroeconometric literature considers the problem of summarising efficiently a large set of variables and using this summary for a variety of purposes including forecasting. Work in this field has been carried out in a series of recent papers. This paper provides an alternative method for estimating factors derived from a factor state space model. This model has a clear dynamic interpretation. Further, the method does not require iterative estimation techniques and due to a modification introduced, can accommodate cases where the number of variables exceeds the number of observations. The computational cost and robustness of the method is comparable to that of principal component analysis because matrix algebraic methods are used.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 466.
Date of creation: Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Factor models; Subspace methods; State space models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-12-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2002-12-10 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2002-12-02 (Econometric Time Series)
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- Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
- Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Kapetanios, George, 2004. "A note on modelling core inflation for the UK using a new dynamic factor estimation method and a large disaggregated price index dataset," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 63-69, October.
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