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Macro to micro: Country exposures, firm fundamentals and stock returns

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  • Li, Ningzhong
  • Richardson, Scott
  • Tuna, İrem

Abstract

We outline a systematic approach to incorporate macroeconomic information into firm level forecasting from the perspective of an equity investor. Using a global sample of 198,315 firm-years over the 1998–2010 time period, we find that combining firm level exposures to countries (via geographic segment data) with forecasts of country level performance, is able to generate superior forecasts for firm fundamentals. This result is particularly evident for purely domestic firms. We further find that this forecasting benefit is associated with future excess stock returns. These relations are stronger after periods of higher dispersion in expected country level performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Ningzhong & Richardson, Scott & Tuna, İrem, 2014. "Macro to micro: Country exposures, firm fundamentals and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:58:y:2014:i:1:p:1-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2014.04.005
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    24. Yaniv Konchitchki, 2016. "Accounting Valuation and Cost of Capital Dynamics: Theoretical and Empirical Macroeconomic Aspects. Discussion of Callen," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(1), pages 26-34, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic exposures; Earnings; Stock returns; Geographic segments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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