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Earnings volatility and earnings predictability

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  • Dichev, Ilia D.
  • Tang, Vicki Wei
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    Abstract

    Survey evidence indicates widely held managerial beliefs that earnings volatility is negatively related to earnings predictability. In addition, existing research suggests that earnings volatility is determined by economic and accounting factors, and both of these factors reduce earnings predictability. We find that the consideration of earnings volatility brings substantial improvements in the prediction of both short- and long-term earnings. Conditioning on volatility information also allows one to identify systematic errors in analyst forecasts, which implies that analysts do not fully understand the implications of earnings volatility for earnings predictability.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Accounting and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 47 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1-2 (March)
    Pages: 160-181

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:47:y:2009:i:1-2:p:160-181

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jae

    Related research

    Keywords: Earnings volatility Earnings predictability Analyst forecasts Fundamental analysis;

    References

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    1. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
    2. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
    3. Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
    4. Brown, Philip, 1993. "Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 331-335, November.
    5. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-344, November.
    6. Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2000. "The changing time-series properties of earnings, cash flows and accruals: Has financial reporting become more conservative?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 287-320, June.
    7. Collins, Daniel W. & Maydew, Edward L. & Weiss, Ira S., 1997. "Changes in the value-relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-67, December.
    8. Paul Hribar, 2002. "Errors in Estimating Accruals: Implications for Empirical Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 105-134, 03.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Gerakos, Joseph & Kovrijnykh, Andrei, 2013. "Performance shocks and misreporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 57-72.
    2. Yusuke Takasu & Makoto Nakano, 2012. "What Do Smoothed Earnings Tell Us about the Future?," The Japanese Accounting Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 2, pages 1-32, December.
    3. Georges Dionne & Karima Ouederni, 2010. "Corporate Risk Management and Dividend Signaling Theory," Cahiers de recherche 1008, CIRPEE.
    4. Nadeem Iqbal & Sajid Rahman Khattak & Muhammad Arif Khattak, 2013. "Does Fundamental Analysis Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from Non-Financial Companies Listed on KSE," Knowledge Horizons - Economics, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(4), pages 182-190, December.
    5. Roberto E. Wessels & Tom J. Wansbeek, 2014. "What is the Relation (if any) Between a Firm's Corporate Governance Arrangements and its Financial Performance?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4599, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Dichev, Ilia D. & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2013. "Earnings quality: Evidence from the field," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 1-33.
    7. Fecht, Falko & Füss, Roland & Rindler, Philipp B., . "Corporate Transparency and Bond Liquidity," Working Papers on Finance 1404, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    8. James Gong & Siyi Li, 2013. "CEO incentives and earnings prediction," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 647-674, May.
    9. Francesco PAOLONE, 2014. "Cost Structure Complexity And Stock Prices Volatility: An Analysis Of Possible Relationship Among Italian Listed Companies In The Period Of Crisis," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 38(1(47)), pages 107-133, June.
    10. Iuliia Brushko, 2013. "Financial Signaling and Earnings Forecasts," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp498, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
    11. Kevin W. Hee, 2011. "Changes in the predictive ability of earnings around earnings restatements," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 155-175, June.

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