Splines for financial volatility
AbstractWe propose a flexible generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity type of model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of using multivariate "B"-splines of lagged observations and volatilities. Estimation of such a "B"-spline basis expansion is constructed within the likelihood framework for non-Gaussian observations. As the dimension of the "B"-spline basis is large, i.e. many parameters, we use regularized and sparse model fitting with a boosting algorithm. Our method is computationally attractive and feasible for large dimensions. We demonstrate its strong predictive potential for financial volatility on simulated and real data, and also in comparison with other approaches, and we present some supporting asymptotic arguments. Copyright (c) 2009 Royal Statistical Society.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Statistical Society in its journal Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology).
Volume (Year): 71 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Francesco Audrino & Peter Bühlmann, 2007. "Splines for Financial Volatility," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-11, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
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- Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2013.
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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B,
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- Francq, Christian & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2010. "Optimal predictions of powers of conditionally heteroskedastic processes," MPRA Paper 22155, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ozer Ozdemir & Memmedaga Memmedli & Akhlitdin Nizamitdinov, 2013. "ANN Models and Bayesian Spline Models for Analysis of Exchange Rates and Gold Price," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 5(2), pages 53-69, September.
- Nikolay Robinzonov & Gerhard Tutz & Torsten Hothorn, 2012. "Boosting techniques for nonlinear time series models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 96(1), pages 99-122, January.
- Audrino, Francesco & Meier, Pirmin, 2012. "Empirical pricing kernel estimation using a functional gradient descent algorithm based on splines," Economics Working Paper Series 1210, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
- VAN BELLEGEM, Sébastien, 2011. "Locally stationary volatility modelling," CORE Discussion Papers 2011041, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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