Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism

Contents:

Author Info

  • Athanasopoulos, George
  • Ahmed, Roman A.
  • Hyndman, Rob J.

Abstract

In this paper we explore the hierarchical nature of tourism demand time series and produce short-term forecasts for Australian domestic tourism. The data and forecasts are organized in a hierarchy based on disaggregating the data according to geographical regions and purposes of travel. We consider five approaches to hierarchical forecasting: two variations of the top-down approach, the bottom-up method, a newly proposed top-down approach where top-level forecasts are disaggregated according to the forecasted proportions of lower level series, and a recently proposed optimal combination approach. Our forecast performance evaluation shows that the top-down approach based on forecast proportions and the optimal combination method perform best for the tourism hierarchies we consider. By applying these methods, we produce detailed forecasts of the Australian domestic tourism market.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-4TPF8WD-1/2/cd935d9529968e15142a3ab5cce8ddb6
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 146-166

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:1:p:146-166

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Related research

Keywords: Australia Exponential smoothing Hierarchical forecasting Innovations state space models Optimal combination forecasts Top-down method Tourism demand;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 2004. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers 12371, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. E. Shlifer & R. W. Wolff, 1979. "Aggregation and Proration in Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 594-603, June.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  5. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Forecasting Contemporaneously Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 201-14, July.
  6. Taylor, James W., 2003. "Exponential smoothing with a damped multiplicative trend," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 715-725.
  7. Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
  8. Dangerfield, Byron J. & Morris, John S., 1992. "Top-down or bottom-up: Aggregate versus disaggregate extrapolations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 233-241, October.
  9. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
  10. Edwards, John B & Orcutt, Guy H, 1969. "Should Aggregation Prior to Estimation Be the Rule?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(4), pages 409-20, November.
  11. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844, July.
  2. Divino, J.A. & McAleer, M.J., 2008. "Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-22, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. Capistrán, Carlos & Constandse, Christian & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2010. "Multi-horizon inflation forecasts using disaggregated data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 666-677, May.
  4. Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
  5. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2013. "Forecasting aggregate demand: Analytical comparison of top-down and bottom-up approaches in a multivariate exponential smoothing framework," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 185-198.
  6. Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0915, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  7. George Athanasopoulos & Ashton de Silva, 2010. "Multivariate exponential smoothing for forecasting tourist arrivals to Australia and New Zealand," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  8. Andrawis, Robert R. & Atiya, Amir F. & El-Shishiny, Hisham, 2011. "Combination of long term and short term forecasts, with application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 870-886, July.
  9. Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling and Forecasting Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-651, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  10. Minfeng Deng & George Athanasopoulos, 2009. "Modelling Australian Domestic and International Inbound Travel: a Spatial-Temporal Approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:1:p:146-166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.