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Tipo de cambio real y sus fundamentos: estimación del desalineamiento

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  • Jesús Ferreryra Gugliermino

    (Banco Central de la Reserva del Perú)

  • Rafael Herrada Vargas

    (Banco Central de la Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

Esta investigación compara dos enfoques para examinar en qué magnitud el tipo de cambio real actual es consistente con los fundamentos económicos. El enfoque del FEER calcula el tipo de cambio real que iguala la cuenta corriente a pleno empleo con una cuenta corriente objetivo teniendo en cuenta criterios de sostenibilidad de la cuenta corriente. El enfoque del BEER utiliza métodos econométricos para establecer un vinculo para explicar el tipo de cambio real con las principales variables económicas que lo explican. En el documento se expone el marco teórico presentando una breve discusión sobre las diferentes bases conceptuales que deben tomarse en cuenta para la especificación de un modelo de tipo de cambio real de equilibrio. Partiendo de una rápida revisión de las definiciones de equilibrio y desalineamiento, se pasa a una descripción de modelos uniecuacionales y estructurales, como las principales alternativas propuestas en la literatura para la estimación del tipo de cambio real de equilibrio. Asimismo se define los conceptos del FEER y el BEER. Seguidamente, se estiman los dos enfoques presentados en la sección anterior, y se hace un resumen de la metodología utilizada en la estimación. Asimismo, se presenta un estudio sobre la sostenibilidad de la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos in its journal Monetaria.

Volume (Year): XXVI (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (abril-junio)
Pages: 167-206

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Handle: RePEc:cml:moneta:v:xxvi:y:2003:i:2:p:167-206

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  1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Leon, Jorge & Mendez, Eduardo & Prado, Eduardo, 2003. "El Tipo de Cambio Real de Costa Rica
    [Real Exchange Rate of Costa Rica]
    ," MPRA Paper 44509, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2003.

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