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Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty

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  • Ana Beatriz Galvão
  • James Mitchell

Abstract

GDP is measured with error. But data uncertainty is rarely communicated quantitatively in real‐time. An exception are the fan charts for historical real GDP growth published by the Bank of England. To assess how well data uncertainty is understood, we first evaluate the accuracy of the historical fan charts. We find that data uncertainties can be accurately quantified, even without judgement, using past revisions data. Secondly, we conduct an online survey to gauge perceptions of GDP data uncertainty across a wider set of experts. Our results call for greater communication of data uncertainties to anchor experts' dispersed expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023. "Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:85:y:2023:i:3:p:457-481
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.12542
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      by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations on 2020-08-10 18:53:00

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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