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An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area

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  • Domenico Giannone

    (Université libre de Bruxelles, ECARES)

  • Jérôme Henry

    (European Central Bank DG, Financial Stability)

  • Magdalena Lalik

    (European Central Bank, DG, Statistics)

  • Michele Modugno

    (Université libre de Bruxelles, ECARES)

Abstract

This paper describes how we constructed a real-time database for the euro area. The database covers more than 200 series regularly published in the European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, as made available to the Governing Council members for their first monthly meeting. We study the properties of the real-time data flow and data revisions in the euro area, also providing comparisons with the United States and Japan. We illustrate how revisions contribute to the uncertainty surrounding key macroeconomic ratios and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. © 2012 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 94 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1000-1013

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:94:y:2012:i:4:p:1000-1013

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Keywords: real-time; euro area; revisions; database; data uncertainty;

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  1. Mariagnese Branchi & Christian Dieden & Wim Haine & Csaba Horwáth & Andrew Kanutin & Linda Kezbere, 2007. "Analysis of revisions to general economic statistics," Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank 74, European Central Bank.
  2. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1157, European Central Bank.
  3. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  7. Swanson Norman, 1996. "Forecasting Using First-Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time-Series Data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, April.
  8. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2010. "A monetary real-time conditional forecast of euro area inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 388-405.
  9. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93.
  10. Croushore, Dean, 2006. "Forecasting with Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier.
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