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An Area Wide Real Time Data Base for the Euro Area

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Author Info

  • Domenico Giannone
  • Jérôme Henry
  • Magdalena Lalik
  • Michèle Modugno

Abstract

This paper describes how we constructed a real time database for the euro area covering more than 200 series regularly published in the European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, as made available ahead of publication to the Governing Council members before their first meeting of the month. We describe the database in details and study the properties of the euro area real-time data flow and data revisions, also providing comparisons with the United States and Japan. We finally illustrate how such revisions can contribute to the uncertainty surrounding key macroeconomic ratios and the NAIRU.

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File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/59649/1/2010-026-GIANNONE_HENRY_LALIK_MODUGNO-areawide.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers ECARES with number ECARES 2010-026.

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Length: 59 p.
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/59649

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Keywords: real-time; euro area; revisions; database;

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References

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  1. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
  2. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93.
  4. Croushore, Dean, 2006. "Forecasting with Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  5. Swanson, N.R., 1996. "Forecasting Using First Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time Series data," Papers 4-96-7, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  6. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  7. Mariagnese Branchi & Christian Dieden & Wim Haine & Csaba Horwáth & Andrew Kanutin & Linda Kezbere, 2007. "Analysis of revisions to general economic statistics," Occasional Paper Series 74, European Central Bank.
  8. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2010. "A monetary real-time conditional forecast of euro area inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 388-405.
  9. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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