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David I. Harvey

Not to be confused with: David Harvey

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. David Harvey & Paul Newbold, 2000. "Tests for multiple forecast encompassing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 471-482.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Tests for multiple forecast encompassing (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2000) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Taylor, AM Robert, 2021. "Simple Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Good Size and Power Properties," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 29814, University of Essex, Essex Business School.

    Cited by:

    1. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Break Detection in Quantile Predictive Regression Models with Persistent Covariates," Papers 2302.05193, arXiv.org.
    2. Tassos Magdalinos & Katerina Petrova, 2022. "Uniform and Distribution-Free Inference with General Autoregressive Processes," Working Papers 1344, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Xiaosai Liao & Xinjue Li & Qingliang Fan, 2024. "Robust Inference for Multiple Predictive Regressions with an Application on Bond Risk Premia," Papers 2401.01064, arXiv.org.

  2. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Sollis, Robert & Taylor, AM Robert, 2020. "Real-Time Detection of Regimes of Predictability in the U.S. Equity Premium," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 27775, University of Essex, Essex Business School.

    Cited by:

    1. Florens Odendahl & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2021. "Evaluating forecast performance with state dependence," Economics Working Papers 1800, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Smith, Simon C., 2021. "International stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Miriam Arden & Tiemen Woutersen, 2021. "A Balanced Portfolio Can Have a Higher Geometric Return Than the Risky Asset," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-5, September.
    4. Rossi, Barbara & Odendahl, Florens & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2020. "Comparing Forecast Performance with State Dependence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Fan, Rui & Lee, Ji Hyung & Shin, Youngki, 2023. "Predictive quantile regression with mixed roots and increasing dimensions: The ALQR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).

  3. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne & Yang Zu, 2018. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility," Discussion Papers 18/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    2. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2019. "Sup-ADF-style bubble-detection methods under test," CQE Working Papers 7819, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    3. Stefan Richter & Weining Wang & Wei Biao Wu, 2018. "A supreme test for periodic explosive GARCH," Papers 1812.03475, arXiv.org.
    4. Stefan Richter & Weining Wang & Wei Biao Wu, 2023. "Testing for parameter change epochs in GARCH time series," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 467-491.
    5. Vicente Esteve & María A. Prats, 2022. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: The case of the Spanish public debt, 1850?2021," Working Papers 2205, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    6. Xuanling Yang & Dong Li & Ting Zhang, 2024. "A simple stochastic nonlinear AR model with application to bubble," Papers 2401.07038, arXiv.org.
    7. Zhang, Erhua & Wu, Jilin, 2020. "Adaptive estimation of AR∞ models with time-varying variances," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    8. Skrobotov Anton, 2023. "Testing for explosive bubbles: a review," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    9. Yiu Lim Lui & Weilin Xiao & Jun Yu, 2021. "Mildly Explosive Autoregression with Anti‐persistent Errors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 518-539, April.
    10. Esteve, Vicente & Prats, María A., 2023. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: the case of Spanish public debt," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 116980, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Esteve, Vicente & Prats, María A., 2023. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: The case of Spanish public debt," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Dettoni, Robinson & Costamagna, Rodrigo & Valenzuela, Mario, 2019. "Rational bubbles in the real housing stock market: Empirical evidence from Santiago de Chile," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 269-281.
    13. Sam Astill & David I Harvey & Stephen J Leybourne & A M Robert Taylor & Yang Zu, 2023. "CUSUM-Based Monitoring for Explosive Episodes in Financial Data in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 187-227.

  4. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Sollis, Robert & Taylor, AM Robert, 2018. "Detecting Regimes of Predictability in the U.S. Equity Premium," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 23198, University of Essex, Essex Business School.

    Cited by:

    1. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Robert Sollis & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2018. "Real‐Time Monitoring for Explosive Financial Bubbles," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 863-891, November.

  5. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Emily J. Whitehouse, 2017. "Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples," Discussion Papers 17/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone, 2020. "Comparing predictive accuracy in small samples using fixed‐smoothing asymptotics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 391-409, June.
    2. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Owyang, 2022. "Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1314-1333, November.
    3. Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone & Alessia Paccagnini & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2021. "Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts," CAMA Working Papers 2021-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2021. "Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1247-1260.
    5. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing & Yang, Lin, 2020. "Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 684-694.
    6. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    7. Hwee Kwan Chow & Yijie Fei & Daniel Han, 2023. "Forecasting GDP with many predictors in a small open economy: forecast or information pooling?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 805-829, August.
    8. Dimitriadis, Timo & Liu, Xiaochun & Schnaitmann, Julie, 2020. "Encompassing tests for value at risk and expected shortfall multi-step forecasts based on inference on the boundary," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    9. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2023. "Measuring Persistent Global Economic Factors with Output, Commodity Price, and Commodity Currency Data," Working Papers 23-05, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    10. Costantini, Mauro & Kunst, Robert M., 2021. "On using predictive-ability tests in the selection of time-series prediction models: A Monte Carlo evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 445-460.
    11. Qin Lu & Jingwen Liao & Kechi Chen & Yanhui Liang & Yu Lin, 2024. "Predicting Natural Gas Prices Based on a Novel Hybrid Model with Variational Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 639-678, February.
    12. Kwas, Marek & Paccagnini, Alessia & Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "Common factors and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Zhou, Jin & Li, Haiqi & Zhong, Wanling, 2021. "A modified Diebold–Mariano test for equal forecast accuracy with clustered dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    14. Rubaszek Michal & Karolak Zuzanna & Kwas Marek & Uddin Gazi Salah, 2020. "The role of the threshold effect for the dynamics of futures and spot prices of energy commodities," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-20, December.
    15. Schlösser, Alexander, 2020. "Forecasting industrial production in Germany: The predictive power of leading indicators," Ruhr Economic Papers 838, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    16. Lin, Yu & Lu, Qin & Tan, Bin & Yu, Yuanyuan, 2022. "Forecasting energy prices using a novel hybrid model with variational mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    17. Rubaszek, Michał & Karolak, Zuzanna & Kwas, Marek, 2020. "Mean-reversion, non-linearities and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

  6. Iliyan Georgiev & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2017. "A bootstrap stationarity test for predictive regression invalidity," Discussion Papers 17/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Iliyan Georgiev, 2019. "Inference under random limit bootstrap measures," Papers 1911.12779, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    2. Yang, Bingduo & Long, Wei & Yang, Zihui, 2022. "Testing predictability of stock returns under possible bubbles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 246-260.
    3. Xiaohui Liu & Yuzi Liu & Yao Rao & Fucai Lu, 2021. "A Unified test for the Intercept of a Predictive Regression Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 571-588, April.
    4. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Transformed regression-based long-horizon predictability tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    5. Georgiev, I & Harvey, DI & Leybourne, SJ & Taylor, AM, 2018. "Testing for Parameter Instability in Predictive Regression Models," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 21162, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    6. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Matei Demetrescu, 2019. "Testing for Episodic Predictability in Stock Returns," Working Papers w201906, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Fukang Zhu & Mengya Liu & Shiqing Ling & Zongwu Cai, 2020. "Testing for Structural Change of Predictive Regression Model to Threshold Predictive Regression Model," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202021, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2020.
    8. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Matei Demetrescu, 2016. "Residual-augmented IVX predictive regression," Working Papers w201605, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Predictability Tests Robust against Parameter Instability," Papers 2307.15151, arXiv.org.

  7. Chrystalleni Aristidou & David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne, 2016. "The impact of the initial condition on covariate augmented unit root tests," Discussion Papers 16/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Aristidou Chrystalleni & Harvey David I. & Leybourne Stephen J., 2017. "The Impact of the Initial Condition on Covariate Augmented Unit Root Tests," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, January.

  8. Sam Astill & David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne & Robert Taylor, 2016. "Tests for an end-of-sample bubble in financial time series," Discussion Papers 16/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Escobari, Diego & Garcia, Sergio & Mellado, Cristhian, 2017. "Identifying bubbles in Latin American equity markets: Phillips-Perron-based tests and linkages," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 90-101.
    2. Frank J. Fabozzi & Iason Kynigakis & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Radu S. Tunaru, 2020. "Detecting Bubbles in the US and UK Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 469-513, May.
    3. KUROZUMI, Eiji & 黒住, 英司, 2017. "Confidence Sets for the Date of a Mean Shift at the End of a Sample," Discussion Papers 2017-06, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Eiji Kurozumi, 2018. "Confidence Sets for the Date of a Structural Change at the End of a Sample," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 850-862, November.
    5. Astill, Sam & Taylor, A.M. Robert & Kellard, Neil & Korkos, Ioannis, 2023. "Using covariates to improve the efficacy of univariate bubble detection methods," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 342-366.
    6. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Robert Sollis & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2018. "Real‐Time Monitoring for Explosive Financial Bubbles," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 863-891, November.
    7. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena & Skrobotov, Anton, 2017. "Testing time series for the bubbles (with application to Russian data)," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 46, pages 90-103.
    8. Moreira, Afonso M. & Martins, Luis F., 2020. "A new mechanism for anticipating price exuberance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 199-221.
    9. Christopher Lynch & Benjamin Mestel, 2019. "Change-Point Analysis Of Asset Price Bubbles With Power-Law Hazard Function," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(07), pages 1-24, November.
    10. Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Dettoni, Robinson & Costamagna, Rodrigo & Valenzuela, Mario, 2019. "Rational bubbles in the real housing stock market: Empirical evidence from Santiago de Chile," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 269-281.
    11. Sam Astill & David I Harvey & Stephen J Leybourne & A M Robert Taylor & Yang Zu, 2023. "CUSUM-Based Monitoring for Explosive Episodes in Financial Data in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 187-227.

  9. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne, 2014. "Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 14/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J., 2016. "Improving the length of confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 239-245.
    2. KUROZUMI, Eiji & 黒住, 英司 & SKROBOTOV, Anton, 2016. "Confidence Sets for the Break Date in Cointegrating Regressions," Discussion Papers 2016-07, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Yicong Lin & Mingxuan Song, 2023. "Robust bootstrap inference for linear time-varying coefficient models: Some Monte Carlo evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-049/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.

  10. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2013. "Break date estimation for models with deterministic structural change," Discussion Papers 13/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J., 2016. "Improving the length of confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 239-245.
    2. Anton Skrobotov, 2016. "On Trend Breaks and Initial Condition in Unit Root Testing," Working Papers 0097, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
    3. Yicong Lin & Mingxuan Song, 2023. "Robust bootstrap inference for linear time-varying coefficient models: Some Monte Carlo evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-049/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne, 2014. "Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 14/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    5. Yiannis Karavias & Elias Tzavalis, 2014. "Testing for unit roots in panels with structural changes, spatial and temporal dependence when the time dimension is finite," Discussion Papers 14/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    6. Skrobotov Anton, 2013. "Bias Correction of KPSS Test with Structural Break for Reducing of Size Distortion," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 33-61, December.
    7. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    8. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    9. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou, 2017. "The aggregate exports-GDP relation under the prism of infrequent trend breaks and multi-horizon causality," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 661-689, October.

  11. David Harvey & Neil Kellard & Jakob Madsen & Mark Wohar, 2012. "Trends and Cycles in Real Commodity Prices: 1650-2010," CEH Discussion Papers 010, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2017. "Does investor attention matter? The attention-return relation in gold futures market," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Trends and Cycles in Historical Gold and Silver Prices," Working Papers 201507, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Awaworyi-Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2022. "Breaks, trends and correlations in commodity prices in the very long-run," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

  12. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2011. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series," Discussion Papers 11/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    2. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    3. Mar'ia Jos'e Presno & Manuel Landajo & Paula Fern'andez Gonz'alez, 2024. "Stochastic convergence in per capita CO$_2$ emissions. An approach from nonlinear stationarity analysis," Papers 2402.00567, arXiv.org.
    4. Chambers, Marcus J. & Ercolani, Joanne S. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "Testing for seasonal unit roots by frequency domain regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 243-258.
    5. Presno, María José & Landajo, Manuel & Fernández González, Paula, 2018. "Stochastic convergence in per capita CO2 emissions. An approach from nonlinear stationarity analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 563-581.
    6. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2009. "A Sequential Procedure to Determine the Number of Breaks in Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-005, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    7. Zerbo, Eléazar & Darné, Olivier, 2019. "On the stationarity of CO2 emissions in OECD and BRICS countries: A sequential testing approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 319-332.
    8. Ghoshray, A., 2018. "The Dynamic Properties of Natural Resource Prices," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277210, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2013. "Recursive adjustment, unit root tests and structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 62-82, January.
    10. Ghoshray Atanu & Kejriwal Mohitosh & Wohar Mark, 2014. "Breaks, trends and unit roots in commodity prices: a robust investigation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 23-40, February.
    11. Josep Lluís Carrion-I-Silvestre & María Dolores Gadea, 2016. "Bounds, Breaks and Unit Root Tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 165-181, March.
    12. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Maria Dolores Gadea, 2015. "Testing for multiple level shifts in I(0) and I(1) stochastic processes," EcoMod2015 8702, EcoMod.
    13. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    14. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & María Dolores Gadea, 2021. "“Detecting multiple level shifts in bounded time series”," AQR Working Papers 202106, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2021.
    15. Atanu Ghoshray & Issam Malki & Javier Ordóñez, 2022. "On the long-run dynamics of income and wealth inequality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 375-408, February.
    16. Presno, María José & Landajo, Manuel & Fernández, Paula, 2014. "Non-renewable resource prices: A robust evaluation from the stationarity perspective," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 394-416.
    17. Fabien Candau & Michaël Goujon & Jean-François Hoarau & Serge Rey, 2013. "Real exchange rate and competitiveness of an EU’s ultra-peripheral region: La Reunion Island," Working Papers hal-01847942, HAL.
    18. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2020. "Stationarity properties of per capita CO2 emissions in the OECD in the very long-run: A replication and extension analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2014. "Break Date Estimation for Models with Deterministic Structural Change," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 623-642, October.
    20. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne, 2014. "Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 14/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    21. Manuel Landajo & Mar'ia Jos'e Presno, 2024. "The prices of renewable commodities: A robust stationarity analysis," Papers 2402.01005, arXiv.org.
    22. Presno, María José & Landajo, Manuel & Fernández, Paula, 2012. "Non-renewable resource prices. A robust evaluation from the stationarity perspective," MPRA Paper 42523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    24. Anton Skrobotov, 2014. "A simple modification of the Busetti-Harvey stationarity tests with structural breaks at unknown time," Working Papers 0102, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2014.
    25. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2019. "How resilient is La Réunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness: an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981-2015," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(24), pages 2639-2653, May.
    26. Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & María Dolores Gadea, 2023. "Testing for multiple level shifts with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 801-819, September.
    27. Sobreira, Nuno & Nunesz, Luis C. & Rodriguesz, Paulo M. M., 2012. "Neoclassical, semi-endogenous or endogenous growth theory? Evidence based on new structural change tests," Insper Working Papers wpe_291, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    28. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nuno Sobreira, 2013. "Characterizing economic growth paths based on new structural change tests," Working Papers w201313, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    29. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    30. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2022. "The prices of renewable commodities: a robust stationarity analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 447-470, April.

  13. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2011. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Discussion Papers 11/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2013. "Testing for unit roots in the possible presence of multiple trend breaks using minimum Dickey–Fuller statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 265-284.
    2. Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Tzavalis, Elias & Vrontos, Ioannis, 2017. "On Bayesian analysis and unit root testing for autoregressive models in the presence of multiple structural breaks," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 70-90.
    3. Anton Skrobotov, 2013. "Local Structural Trend Break in Stationarity Testing," Working Papers 0074, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    4. Anton Skrobotov, 2016. "On Trend Breaks and Initial Condition in Unit Root Testing," Working Papers 0097, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
    5. Harris, David & Kew, Hsein & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2020. "Level shift estimation in the presence of non-stationary volatility with an application to the unit root testing problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 354-388.
    6. Marilena Furno, 2021. "Cointegration tests at the quantiles," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1087-1100, January.
    7. Anton Skrobotov, 2014. "A simple modification of the Busetti-Harvey stationarity tests with structural breaks at unknown time," Working Papers 0102, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2014.
    8. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    9. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    10. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2015. "Testing for Unit Roots Under Multiple Possible Trend Breaks and Non-Stationary Volatility Using Bootstrap Minimum Dickey–Fuller Statistics," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 603-629, September.

  14. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "The impact of the initial condition on robust tests for a linear trend," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Elliott, Graham, 2020. "Testing for a trend with persistent errors," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8qb0j5s7, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Anton Skrobotov, 2015. "Trend and Initial Condition in Stationarity Tests: The Asymptotic Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(2), pages 254-273, April.
    3. Anton Skrobotov, 2016. "On Trend Breaks and Initial Condition in Unit Root Testing," Working Papers 0097, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
    4. Terence Mills, 2013. "Breaks and unit roots in global and hemispheric temperatures: an updated analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 745-755, June.
    5. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

  15. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series [Revised to become No. 10/01 above]," Discussion Papers 09/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.

  16. Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for Unit Roots in the Presence of a Possible Break in Trend and Non-Stationary Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2008-62, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2014. "Savings and investments in the OECD: a panel cointegration study with a new bootstrap test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1271-1300, June.
    2. Sven Otto, 2020. "Unit Root Testing with Slowly Varying Trends," Papers 2003.04066, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    3. Pershin, Vitaly & Molero, Juan Carlos & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2016. "Exploring the oil prices and exchange rates nexus in some African economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 166-180.
    4. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2013. "Recursive adjustment, unit root tests and structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 62-82, January.
    5. Sven Otto, 2021. "Unit root testing with slowly varying trends," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 85-106, January.
    6. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2023. "Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Husein, Jamal, 2020. "Current account sustainability for 21 African economies: Evidence based on nonlinear flexible Fourier stationarity and unit-root tests," MPRA Paper 100410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sun, Jingwei & Shi, Wendong, 2015. "Breaks, trends, and unit roots in spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 169-177.
    9. Anton Skrobotov, 2016. "On Trend Breaks and Initial Condition in Unit Root Testing," Working Papers 0097, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
    10. Fossati, Sebastian, 2011. "Unit Root Testing with Stationary Covariates and a Structural Break in the Trend Function," Working Papers 2011-10, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    11. Lajos Horváth & Piotr Kokoszka & Jeremy VanderDoes & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Inference in functional factor models with applications to yield curves," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 872-894, November.
    12. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    13. Harris, D & Leybourne, SJ & Taylor, AMR, 2016. "Tests of the Co-integration Rank in VAR Models in the Presence of a Possible Break in Trend at an Unknown Point," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 15847, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    14. Aquino, Juan, 2019. "The Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Phillips Curve: Specification, Structural Breaks and Robustness," Working Papers 2019-019, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    15. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor & Bart Verpagen, 2019. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in long run time series," LEM Papers Series 2019/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    16. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Hasan Güngör, 2021. "Co-movement of commodity price indexes and energy price index: a wavelet coherence approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    17. David I. Harvey, & Stephen J. Leybourne, & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for a unit root when uncertain about the trend [Revised to become 07/03 above]," Discussion Papers 06/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    18. Harris, David & Kew, Hsein & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2020. "Level shift estimation in the presence of non-stationary volatility with an application to the unit root testing problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 354-388.
    19. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.
    20. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2012. "Unit roots, nonlinearities and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2012-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    21. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Unit root testing in practice: dealing with uncertainty over the trend and initial condition," Discussion Papers 07/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    22. Górecki, Tomasz & Horváth, Lajos & Kokoszka, Piotr, 2018. "Change point detection in heteroscedastic time series," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 63-88.
    23. Börger, Matthias & Schupp, Johannes, 2018. "Modeling trend processes in parametric mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 369-380.
    24. Wang, Shaoping & Li, Yanglin & Wen, Kuangyu, 2021. "Recursive adjusted unit root tests under non-stationary volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    25. Balcombe, Kelvin & Fraser, Iain, 2017. "Do bubbles have an explosive signature in markov switching models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 81-100.
    26. Terence Mills, 2013. "Breaks and unit roots in global and hemispheric temperatures: an updated analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 745-755, June.
    27. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    28. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Trends, cycles and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 3, pages 45-60, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    29. Apergis, Nicholas & Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2015. "Downstream integration of natural gas prices across U.S. states: Evidence from deregulation regime shifts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 82-92.
    30. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2015. "Testing for Unit Roots Under Multiple Possible Trend Breaks and Non-Stationary Volatility Using Bootstrap Minimum Dickey–Fuller Statistics," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 603-629, September.

  17. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Seasonal unit root tests and the role of initial conditions," Discussion Papers 08/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Anton Skrobotov, 2013. "On GLS-detrending for deterministic seasonality testing," Working Papers 0073, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2014.

  18. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for unit roots and the impact of quadratic trends, with an application to relative primary commodity prices," Discussion Papers 08/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Georgios Bertsatos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Mike G. Tsionas, 2022. "Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 605-634, February.
    2. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
    3. Westerlund, Joakim, 2015. "The effect of recursive detrending on panel unit root tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 453-467.
    4. Marcos Sanso-Navarro, 2011. "Broken trend stationarity of hours worked," Post-Print hal-00712742, HAL.
    5. Winkelried, Diego, 2015. "Unit Roots, Flexible Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Working Papers 2015-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    6. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    7. Ligang Liu & Andrew Tsang, 2008. "Pass‐through Effects of Global Commodity Prices on China's Inflation: An Empirical Investigation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 22-34, November.
    8. Presno, María José & Landajo, Manuel & Fernández, Paula, 2014. "Non-renewable resource prices: A robust evaluation from the stationarity perspective," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 394-416.
    9. Manuel Landajo & Mar'ia Jos'e Presno, 2024. "The prices of renewable commodities: A robust stationarity analysis," Papers 2402.01005, arXiv.org.
    10. Presno, María José & Landajo, Manuel & Fernández, Paula, 2012. "Non-renewable resource prices. A robust evaluation from the stationarity perspective," MPRA Paper 42523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Yiannis Karavias & Elias Tzavalis, 2014. "Testing for unit roots in panels with structural changes, spatial and temporal dependence when the time dimension is finite," Discussion Papers 14/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    12. Lan Cheng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2017. "Combination of “combinations of p values”," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 329-350, August.
    13. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2022. "The prices of renewable commodities: a robust stationarity analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 447-470, April.
    14. Westerlund, Joakim, 2013. "Simple unit root testing in generally trending data with an application to precious metal prices in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 12-27.
    15. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno & Paula Fernández González, 2021. "Stationarity in the Prices of Energy Commodities. A Nonparametric Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, June.
    16. Gonçalves, Thallis Macedo de Assis & Cerqueira, Luiz Fernando & Feijó, Carmem Aparecida, 2023. "Pass-through of exchange rate shocks in Brazil as a small open economy," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.

  19. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of uncertainty over both the trend and initial condition," Discussion Papers 08/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2021. "Are coffee farmers worse off in the long run?," 95th Annual Conference, March 29-30, 2021, Warwick, UK (Hybrid) 311084, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    2. Anton Skrobotov, 2015. "Trend and Initial Condition in Stationarity Tests: The Asymptotic Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(2), pages 254-273, April.
    3. Smeekes, S., 2011. "Bootstrap sequential tests to determine the stationary units in a panel," Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    4. Xu, Deyi & Sheraz, Muhammad & Hassan, Arshad & Sinha, Avik & Ullah, Saif, 2022. "Financial development, renewable energy and CO2 emission in G7 countries: New evidence from non-linear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Harvey David I. & Leybourne Stephen J. & Whitehouse Emily J., 2018. "Testing for a unit root against ESTAR stationarity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-29, February.
    6. Stephan Smeekes & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010. "Bootstrap union tests for unit roots in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Discussion Papers 10/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    7. Stephan Smeekes, 2013. "Detrending Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 869-891, November.
    8. Saeid Mahdavi & Joakim Westerlund, 2017. "Are state–local government expenditures converging? New evidence based on sequential unit root tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 373-403, September.
    9. Sandberg, Rickard, 2016. "Trends, unit roots, structural changes, and time-varying asymmetries in U.S. macroeconomic data: the Stock and Watson data re-examined," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 699-713.
    10. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2023. "Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Andre M. Marques & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2021. "Testing for Granger Causality in Quantiles Between the Wage Share and Capacity Utilization," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_03, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    12. Anton Skrobotov, 2016. "On Trend Breaks and Initial Condition in Unit Root Testing," Working Papers 0097, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
    13. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of uncertainty over both the trend and initial condition," Discussion Papers 08/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    14. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Dimitris N. Politis & Anders Rahbek & Stephan Smeekes, 2015. "Recent developments in bootstrap methods for dependent data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 398-415, May.
    15. Jeremy Nguyen & Jen-je Su, 2015. "Combining linear and nonlinear unit root tests with an application to PPP," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2796-2801.
    16. Su, Jen-Je & Nguyen, Jeremy K., 2013. "Alternative unit root testing strategies using the Fourier approximation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 8-11.
    17. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2012. "Unit roots, nonlinearities and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2012-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2022. "Trends and persistence of farm-gate coffee prices around the world," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321166, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    19. Milda Norkute, 2015. "Can the sectoral New Keynesian Phillips curve explain inflation dynamics in the Euro Area?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1191-1216, December.
    20. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    21. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2022. "Testing for Granger causality in quantiles between the wage share in income and productive capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 290-312.

  20. David Harris & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Nikoloas D. Sakkas, 2008. "Local asymptotic power of the Im-Pesaran-Shin panel unit root test and the impact of initial observations," Discussion Papers 08/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Valerija Botric, 2013. "Output Convergence between Western Balkans and EU-15," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 5(1).
    2. Yiannis Karavias & Elias Tzavalis, 2016. "Local Power of Fixed-T Panel Unit Root Tests With Serially Correlated Errors and Incidental Trends," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 222-239, March.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    4. Joakim Westerlund & Jörg Breitung, 2013. "Lessons from a Decade of IPS and LLC," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5-6), pages 547-591, August.
    5. Becheri, I.G. & Drost, Feike C. & van den Akker, R., 2013. "Asymptotically UMP Panel Unit Root Tests," Other publications TiSEM e34b7d23-8e53-4cea-ba69-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Karavias, Yiannis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2013. "The Power Performance of Fixed-T Panel Unit Root Tests allowing for Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 46012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Stauskas, Ovidijus, 2019. "On the Limit Theory of Mixed to Unity VARs: Panel Setting With Weakly Dependent Errors," Working Papers 2019:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    8. Pedroni, Peter L. & Vogelsang, Timothy J. & Wagner, Martin & Westerlund, Joakim, 2015. "Nonparametric rank tests for non-stationary panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 378-391.
    9. Yiannis Karavias & Elias Tzavalis, 2012. "The local power of fixed-T panel unit root tests allowing for serially correlated errors," Discussion Papers 12/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    10. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Turuntseva, Marina (Турунцева, Марина), 2017. "Testing the Hypothesis of a Unit Root for Independent Panels [Тестирование Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня Для Независимых Панелей]," Working Papers 021707, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    11. Becheri, I.G. & Drost, Feike C. & van den Akker, R., 2013. "Asymptotically UMP Panel Unit Root Tests," Discussion Paper 2013-017, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Westerlund, Joakim & Larsson, Rolf, 2009. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Random Coefficient Panel Data Model," Working Papers in Economics 383, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    13. Chingnun Lee & Jyh-Lin Wu & Lixiong Yang, 2016. "A Simple Panel Unit-Root Test with Smooth Breaks in the Presence of a Multifactor Error Structure," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(3), pages 365-393, June.
    14. Kajal Lahiri & Zhongwen Liang & Huaming Peng, 2017. "The Local Power of the IPS Test with Both Initial Conditions and Incidental Trends," CESifo Working Paper Series 6313, CESifo.
    15. Westerlund, Joakim, 2015. "The power of PANIC," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 495-509.

  21. David Harris & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for a unit root in the presence of a possible break in trend," Discussion Papers 07/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2014. "Savings and investments in the OECD: a panel cointegration study with a new bootstrap test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1271-1300, June.
    2. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2013. "Testing for unit roots in the possible presence of multiple trend breaks using minimum Dickey–Fuller statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 265-284.
    3. Syed Abul Basher & Alfred Haug & Perry Sadorsky, 2010. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Emerging Stock Markets," Working Papers 1014, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2010.
    4. Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of a possible break in trend and non-stationary volatility," Discussion Papers 09/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    5. Pershin, Vitaly & Molero, Juan Carlos & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2016. "Exploring the oil prices and exchange rates nexus in some African economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 166-180.
    6. Ghoshray Atanu & Kejriwal Mohitosh & Wohar Mark, 2014. "Breaks, trends and unit roots in commodity prices: a robust investigation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 23-40, February.
    7. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Dukpa Kim & Pierre Perron, 2007. "GLS-based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks both under the null and the alternative hypotheses," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    8. Husein, Jamal, 2020. "Current account sustainability for 21 African economies: Evidence based on nonlinear flexible Fourier stationarity and unit-root tests," MPRA Paper 100410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. O'Hare, Colin & Li, Youwei, 2016. "Modelling mortality: Are we heading in the right direction?," MPRA Paper 71392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sun, Jingwei & Shi, Wendong, 2015. "Breaks, trends, and unit roots in spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 169-177.
    11. Anton Skrobotov, 2013. "Local Structural Trend Break in Stationarity Testing," Working Papers 0074, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    12. Fossati, Sebastian, 2011. "Unit Root Testing with Stationary Covariates and a Structural Break in the Trend Function," Working Papers 2011-10, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    13. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    14. Harris, D & Leybourne, SJ & Taylor, AMR, 2016. "Tests of the Co-integration Rank in VAR Models in the Presence of a Possible Break in Trend at an Unknown Point," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 15847, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    15. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor & Bart Verpagen, 2019. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in long run time series," LEM Papers Series 2019/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    16. David I. Harvey, & Stephen J. Leybourne, & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for a unit root when uncertain about the trend [Revised to become 07/03 above]," Discussion Papers 06/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    17. Harris, David & Kew, Hsein & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2020. "Level shift estimation in the presence of non-stationary volatility with an application to the unit root testing problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 354-388.
    18. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.
    19. O'Hare, Colin & Li, Youwei, 2014. "Identifying structural breaks in stochastic mortality models," MPRA Paper 62994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2014. "Break Date Estimation for Models with Deterministic Structural Change," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 623-642, October.
    21. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2012. "Unit roots, nonlinearities and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2012-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    22. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Unit root testing in practice: dealing with uncertainty over the trend and initial condition," Discussion Papers 07/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    23. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    24. Börger, Matthias & Schupp, Johannes, 2018. "Modeling trend processes in parametric mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 369-380.
    25. Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2014. "A joint test for structural stability and a unit root in autoregressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 577-587.
    26. Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2011. "Joint Detection of Structural Change and Nonstationarity in Autoregressions," MPRA Paper 29189, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Atanu Ghoshray & Ashira Perera, 2016. "An Empirical Study of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 551-571, July.
    28. Wang, Shaoping & Li, Yanglin & Wen, Kuangyu, 2021. "Recursive adjusted unit root tests under non-stationary volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    29. Balcombe, Kelvin & Fraser, Iain, 2017. "Do bubbles have an explosive signature in markov switching models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 81-100.
    30. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Discussion Papers 10/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    31. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2014. "Unit Root Testing under a Local Break in Trend using Partial Information on the Break Date," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(1), pages 93-111, February.
    32. Sobreira, Nuno & Nunesz, Luis C. & Rodriguesz, Paulo M. M., 2012. "Neoclassical, semi-endogenous or endogenous growth theory? Evidence based on new structural change tests," Insper Working Papers wpe_291, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    33. Terence Mills, 2013. "Breaks and unit roots in global and hemispheric temperatures: an updated analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 745-755, June.
    34. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    35. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nuno Sobreira, 2013. "Characterizing economic growth paths based on new structural change tests," Working Papers w201313, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    36. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    37. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Trends, cycles and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 3, pages 45-60, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    38. Apergis, Nicholas & Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2015. "Downstream integration of natural gas prices across U.S. states: Evidence from deregulation regime shifts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 82-92.
    39. Richard S. J. Tol & Francisco Estrada & Carlos Gay-García, 2012. "The persistence of shocks in GDP and the estimation of the potential economic costs of climate change," Working Paper Series 4312, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    40. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2015. "Testing for Unit Roots Under Multiple Possible Trend Breaks and Non-Stationary Volatility Using Bootstrap Minimum Dickey–Fuller Statistics," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 603-629, September.

  22. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Bin Xiao, 2007. "A powerful test for linearity when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 07/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Burak GÜRIŞ & İpek M. YURTTAGÜLER & Muhammed TIRAŞOĞLU, 2017. "Unemployment convergence analysis for Nordic countries: Evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 45-56, Spring.
    2. Feyyaz Zeren & Filiz Konuk, 2013. "Testing The Random Walk Hypothesis For Emerging Markets: Evidence From Linear And Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 8(4), pages 61-71, december.
    3. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Regis, Paulo José, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: Nonlinear unit root tests revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 343-346.
    4. Yi‐Ting Peng & Tsangyao Chang & Omid Ranjbar, 2022. "Analyzing the degree of persistence of economic policy uncertainty using linear and non‐linear fourier quantile unit root tests," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(4), pages 453-471, July.
    5. Ghoshray, A., 2018. "The Dynamic Properties of Natural Resource Prices," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277210, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Juan Cuestas & Dean Garratt, 2011. "Is real GDP per capita a stationary process? Smooth transitions, nonlinear trends and unit root testing," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 555-563, December.
    7. Burhan Biçer & Almila Burgac Cil, 2023. "Symmetric and Asymmetric Dynamics of Output Gap and Inflation Relation for Turkish Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(5), pages 520-549.
    8. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2016. "Renewable-to-total electricity consumption ratio: Estimating the permanent or transitory fluctuations based on flexible Fourier stationarity and unit root tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1409-1427.
    9. Yoon, Gawon, 2009. "It's all the miners' fault: On the nonlinearity in U.S. unemployment rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1449-1454, November.
    10. Aslan, Alper & Kum, Hakan, 2011. "The stationary of energy consumption for Turkish disaggregate data by employing linear and nonlinear unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4256-4258.
    11. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2016. "Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non-linearities and long memory," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 519-538, November.
    12. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Heshmati, Almas & Azam, Muhammad, 2015. "Are Unemployment Rates in OECD Countries Stationary? Evidence from Univariate and Panel Unit Root Tests," IZA Discussion Papers 9571, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Sustainable economic development in China: Modelling the role of hydroelectricity consumption in a multivariate framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 516-531.
    14. Aslan, Alper, 2011. "Does natural gas consumption follow a nonlinear path over time? Evidence from 50 US States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4466-4469.
    15. Golpe, Antonio A. & Carmona, Monica & Congregado, Emilio, 2012. "Persistence in natural gas consumption in the US: An unobserved component model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 594-600.
    16. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    17. Wahab, Bashir A. & Adewuyi, Adeolu O., 2021. "Analysis of major properties of metal prices using new methods: Structural breaks, non-linearity, stationarity and bubbles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Burak Güriş & Burcu Yavuz Tiftikçigil & Muhammed Tıraşoğlu, 2017. "Testing for unemployment hysteresis in Turkey: evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 35-46, January.
    19. Mücahit Aydın, 2019. "Investigation of the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis with Fourier Unit Root Tests: The Case of Turkey," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(0), pages 35-48, June.
    20. Malika Neifar & Leila Gharbi, 2022. "Weak EMH and Canadian stock markets: evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests," Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 629-651, December.
    21. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2012. "Inflation Convergence in Central and Eastern Europe with a View to Adopting the Euro," Working Papers 2012005, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    22. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.
    23. Esra ALP & Ünal SEVEN, 2019. "Türkiye Konut Piyasasında Etkinlik Analizi," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(1), pages 84-112, May.
    24. Murat Eren & Selim Basar & Bengu Tosun, 2022. "Dollarization and Risk Premium in a Risky Country: An Investigation on Turkiye," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 625-651, December.
    25. SAHIN, Emrah & GUNGOR, Selim & KARACA, Suleyman Serdar, 2020. "Empirical Analysis Of The Relationship Between Purchasing Managers Index And Bist Industrial Index Under Structural Breaks," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 24(3), pages 6-22, September.
    26. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Florin Zsurkis, Gabriel, 2015. "Revisiting non-linearities in business cycles around the world," MPRA Paper 65668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2016. "‘Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India’ — A failed replication (negative Type 1 and Type 2)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 150-160.
    28. Durmuş Çağrı Yıldırım & Seda Yıldırım & Seyfettin Erdoğan & Işıl Demirtaş & Gualter Couto & Rui Alexandre Castanho, 2021. "Time-Varying Convergences of Environmental Footprint Levels between European Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, March.
    29. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Wahab, Bashir A. & Adeboye, Olusegun S., 2020. "Stationarity of prices of precious and industrial metals using recent unit root methods: Implications for markets’ efficiency," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    30. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Smooth transition, non-linearity and current account sustainability: Evidence from the European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 541-554.
    31. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Florin Zsurkis, Gabriel, 2017. "Are linear models really unuseful to describe business cycle data?," MPRA Paper 79413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Nonlinearity in real exchange rates: an approach with disaggregated data and a new linearity test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1125-1132.
    33. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "How Do Carbon Emissions Respond to Economic Shocks? Evidence from Low-, Middle- and High-Income Countries," MPRA Paper 93976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 May 2019.
    34. Kassouri, Yacouba, 2022. "Boom-bust cycles in oil consumption: The role of explosive bubbles and asymmetric adjustments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    35. Lopes, Artur Silva & Zsurkis, Gabriel Florin, 2017. "Are linear models really unuseful to describe business cycle data?," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    36. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Zhang, Han, 2023. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil futures market: Which structural change-based HAR models have better performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    37. Mehmet Altuntaş & Emre Kılıç & Şevket Pazarcı & Alican Umut, 2022. "Borsa İstanbul Alt Endekslerinde Etkin Piyasa Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Fourier Kırılmalı ve Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testlerinden Kanıtlar," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 7(1), pages 169-185.
    38. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "The Flexible Fourier Form and Local GLS De-trended Unit Root Tests," Working Papers w200919, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    39. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zaman, Khair Uz, 2014. "Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 183-195.
    40. Yunus Kilic & Mehmet Fatih Bugan, 2016. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(10), pages 262-272, October.
    41. Gozbasi, Onur & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 381-384.
    42. Saša Obradoviæ & Lela Ristiæ & Nemanja Lojanica, 2018. "Are unemployment rates stationary for SEE10 countries? Evidence from linear and nonlinear dynamics," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 559-583.
    43. Moosa, Imad A. & Ma, Ming, 2018. "Linear and Nonlinear Attractors in Purchasing Power Parity," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(2), pages 149-172.
    44. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    45. Erdas Mehmet Levent, 2019. "Validity of Weak-Form Market Efficiency in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs): Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 399-428, December.
    46. Ayca Doganer, 2022. "Determining Unemployment Hysteresis in European Countries Using Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests: The 1991-2020 Period," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 753-785, December.
    47. Mehmet Hanefi Topal, 2020. "The Middle Income Trap: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75.
    48. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2022. "The quantile dependence of the stock returns of “clean” and “dirty” firms on oil demand and supply shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    49. Neifar, Malika, 2020. "Multivariate GARCH Approaches: case of major sectorial Tunisian stock markets," MPRA Paper 99658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2021. "Nonlinearities and Chaos: A New Analysis of CEE Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-13, March.
    51. Yavuz, Nilgün Çil & Yilanci, Veli, 2012. "Testing For Nonlinearity In G7 Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 69-79, September.
    52. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2016. "Are fluctuations in oil consumption permanent or transitory? Evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 262-270.
    53. neifar, malika, 2020. "Efficiency-Market Hypothesis: case of Tunisian and 6 ‎Asian stock markets ‎," MPRA Paper 103232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    54. Yifei Cai & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "Are shocks to natural gas consumption transitory or permanent? A more powerful panel unit root test on the G7 countries," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2), pages 111-120, May.
    55. Selahattin GÜRİŞ & Burak GÜRİŞ & Muhammed TIRAŞOĞLU, 2017. "Do military expenditures converge in NATO countries? Linear and nonlinear unit root test evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 237-248, Summer.
    56. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ranjbar, Omid & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2021. "Testing the persistence of shocks on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from a quantile unit-root test with smooth breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    57. Yusuf TUNA & Ayca DOGANER & Guldenur CETIN, 2022. "Determining the Relationships Between Domestic Credits, Economic Growth and Inflation in Turkiye by Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 16(2), pages 173-187.
    58. neifar, malika, 2020. "Efficient Markets Hypothesis in Canada:‎ a comparative study between Islamic and Conventional stock markets ‎," MPRA Paper 103175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

  23. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Unit root testing in practice: dealing with uncertainty over the trend and initial condition," Discussion Papers 07/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Born Benjamin & Demetrescu Matei, 2015. "Recursive Adjustment for General Deterministic Components and Improved Cointegration Rank Tests," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 143-179, July.
    2. Samuel Brien & Michael Jansson & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests of a Unit Root in an Autoregressive Model of Arbitrary Order," Working Paper 1429, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    3. Pierre Perron & Gabriel Rodríguez, "undated". "Residuals-based Tests for Cointegration with GLS Detrended Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-017, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised 19 Oct 2015.
    4. Anton Skrobotov, 2015. "Trend and Initial Condition in Stationarity Tests: The Asymptotic Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(2), pages 254-273, April.
    5. Martin C. Arnold & Christoph Hanck, 2019. "On Combining Evidence from Heteroskedasticity Robust Panel Unit Root Tests in Pooled Regressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, July.
    6. Smeekes, S., 2011. "Bootstrap sequential tests to determine the stationary units in a panel," Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    7. Harvey David I. & Leybourne Stephen J. & Whitehouse Emily J., 2018. "Testing for a unit root against ESTAR stationarity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-29, February.
    8. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2013. "Recursive adjustment, unit root tests and structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 62-82, January.
    9. Stephan Smeekes & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010. "Bootstrap union tests for unit roots in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Discussion Papers 10/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    10. Silva Lopes, Artur, 2020. "Revisiting income convergence with DF-Fourier tests: old evidence with a new test," MPRA Paper 102208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Amsler Christine & Schmidt Peter & Vogelsang Timothy J, 2009. "The KPSS Test Using Fixed-b Critical Values: Size and Power in Highly Autocorrelated Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-44, December.
    12. Michael Jansson & Morten Ø. Nielsen, 2009. "Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests For Seasonal Unit Roots," Working Paper 1224, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    13. Adel Bosch & Franz Ruch, 2012. "An Alternative Business Cycle Dating Procedure for South Africa," Working Papers 5210, South African Reserve Bank.
    14. Stephan Smeekes, 2013. "Detrending Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 869-891, November.
    15. Bykhovskaya, Anna & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2020. "Point optimal testing with roots that are functionally local to unity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 231-259.
    16. Hugo Ferrer-Pérez & María-Isabel Ayuda & Antonio Aznar, 2019. "Improving the Performance of a Long-Run Variance Ratio Test for a Unit Root," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 258-274, June.
    17. Sandberg, Rickard, 2016. "Trends, unit roots, structural changes, and time-varying asymmetries in U.S. macroeconomic data: the Stock and Watson data re-examined," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 699-713.
    18. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2023. "Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Ahlgren, Niklas & Juselius, Mikael, 2009. "Tests for Cointegration Rank and the Initial Condition," Working Papers 539, Hanken School of Economics.
    20. Michael Jansson & Morten Ø. Nielsen, 2009. "Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests Of The Unit Root Hypothesis," Working Paper 1213, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    21. Bayer, C & Hanck, C.H., 2009. "Combining non-cointegration tests," Research Memorandum 012, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    22. Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Tzavalis, Elias & Vrontos, Ioannis, 2017. "On Bayesian analysis and unit root testing for autoregressive models in the presence of multiple structural breaks," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 70-90.
    23. Anton Skrobotov, 2016. "On Trend Breaks and Initial Condition in Unit Root Testing," Working Papers 0097, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
    24. Natalia Bailey & Liudas Giraitis, 2015. "Spectral Approach to Parameter-Free Unit Root Testing," Working Papers 746, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    25. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Yang Zu, 2019. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1131-1151, November.
    26. Matei Demetrescu & Helmut Luetkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2008. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a Vector Autoregressive Process with Uncertain Deterministic Trend Term," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/24, European University Institute.
    27. Cho, Cheol-Keun & Amsler, Christine & Schmidt, Peter, 2015. "A test of the null of integer integration against the alternative of fractional integration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 217-237.
    28. Peter C.B. Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos, 2008. "Unit Root and Cointegrating Limit Theory When Initialization Is in the Infinite Past," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1655, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    29. Silva Lopes, Artur C., 2021. "Most likely you go your way (and I'll go mine): non-convergent incomes with a new DF-Fourier test," MPRA Paper 107676, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2021.
    30. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of uncertainty over both the trend and initial condition," Discussion Papers 08/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    31. Christoph Hanck, 2012. "Multiple unit root tests under uncertainty over the initial condition: some powerful modifications," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 767-774, August.
    32. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for unit roots and the impact of quadratic trends, with an application to relative primary commodity prices," Discussion Papers 08/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    33. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2011. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series," Discussion Papers 11/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    34. Shelef, Amit, 2016. "A Gini-based unit root test," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 763-772.
    35. Franz Ruch & Stan du Plessis, 2015. "SecondRound Effects from Food and Energy Prices an SBVAR approach," Working Papers 7008, South African Reserve Bank.
    36. Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin Mumford, 2010. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment," NBER Working Papers 15984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Mehdi Hosseinkouchack & Uwe Hassler, 2016. "Powerful Unit Root Tests Free of Nuisance Parameters," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 533-554, July.
    38. Jeremy Nguyen & Jen-je Su, 2015. "Combining linear and nonlinear unit root tests with an application to PPP," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2796-2801.
    39. Aristidou Chrystalleni & Harvey David I. & Leybourne Stephen J., 2017. "The Impact of the Initial Condition on Covariate Augmented Unit Root Tests," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, January.
    40. Guillaume Chevillon, 2013. "Robust Cointegration Testing in the Presence of Weak Trends, with an Application to the Human Origin of Global Warming," Working Papers hal-00914830, HAL.
    41. Su, Jen-Je & Nguyen, Jeremy K., 2013. "Alternative unit root testing strategies using the Fourier approximation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 8-11.
    42. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J., 2014. "Asymptotic behaviour of tests for a unit root against an explosive alternative," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 64-68.
    43. Anna Bykhovskaya & Vadim Gorin, 2020. "Cointegration in large VARs," Papers 2006.14179, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    44. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "The impact of the initial condition on robust tests for a linear trend," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    45. Karsten Reichold, 2022. "A Residuals-Based Nonparametric Variance Ratio Test for Cointegration," Papers 2211.06288, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    46. Meng, Ming & Lee, Hyejin & Cho, Myeong Hyeon & Lee, Junsoo, 2013. "Impacts of the initial observation on unit root tests using recursive demeaning and detrending procedures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 195-199.
    47. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2012. "Unit roots, nonlinearities and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2012-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    48. Nishi, Mikihito & 西, 幹仁 & Kurozumi, Eiji & 黒住, 英司, 2022. "Stochastic Local and Moderate Departures from a Unit Root and Its Application to Unit Root Testing," Discussion Papers 2022-02, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    49. Wang, Shaoping & Li, Yanglin & Wen, Kuangyu, 2021. "Recursive adjusted unit root tests under non-stationary volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    50. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Discussion Papers 10/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    51. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2012. "Local-Explosive Approximations to Null Distributions of the Johansen Cointegration Test, with an Application to Cyclical Concordance in the Euro Area," ESSEC Working Papers WP1210, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    52. Lan Cheng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2017. "Combination of “combinations of p values”," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 329-350, August.
    53. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    54. Kajal Lahiri & Zhongwen Liang & Huaming Peng, 2017. "The Local Power of the IPS Test with Both Initial Conditions and Incidental Trends," CESifo Working Paper Series 6313, CESifo.
    55. Silva Lopes, Artur, 2016. "A simple proposal to improve the power of income convergence tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 92-95.
    56. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Rejection Probabilities for a Battery of Unit-Root Tests," Working Papers in Economics 568, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    57. Qiankun Zhou & Jun Yu, 2012. "Asymptotic Distributions of the Least Squares Estimator for Diffusion Processes," Working Papers 11-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    58. Ke-Li Xu & Jui-Chung Yang, 2015. "Towards Uniformly Efficient Trend Estimation Under Weak/Strong Correlation and Non-stationary Volatility," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 42(1), pages 63-86, March.
    59. Arturas Juodis & Yiannis Karavias, 2019. "Partially heterogeneous tests for Granger non-causality in panel data," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 59, Bank of Lithuania.
    60. Patrick Marsh, 2019. "Properties of the power envelope for tests against both stationary and explosive alternatives: the effect of trends," Discussion Papers 19/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    61. Razvan Pascalau & Junsoo Lee & Saban Nazlioglu & Yan (Olivia) Lu, 2022. "Johansen‐type cointegration tests with a Fourier function," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 828-852, September.
    62. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series [Revised to become No. 10/01 above]," Discussion Papers 09/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    63. Fathali Firoozi & Donald Lien, 2016. "A Modified ADF Test for Geometric ARMA Processes," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 15(2), pages 173-179, December.
    64. Anton Skrobotov, 2013. "Double Unit Roots Testing, GLS-detrending and Uncertainty over the Initial Conditions," Working Papers 0083, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    65. Heon Lee, 2021. "Money Creation and Banking: Theory and Evidence," Papers 2109.15096, arXiv.org.

  24. Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Rodrigues, Bruno Dore & Stevenson, Maxwell J., 2013. "Takeover prediction using forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 628-641.
    3. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Testing the Value of Probability Forecasts for Calibrated Combining," Discussion Papers 13-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    4. Lahiri, Kajal & Wang, J. George, 2013. "Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190.
    5. Dimitriadis, Timo & Schnaitmann, Julie, 2021. "Forecast encompassing tests for the expected shortfall," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 604-621.
    6. Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski & Grzegorz Koloch, 2011. "Forecasting the Polish zloty with non-linear models," NBP Working Papers 81, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    7. Rendon-Sanchez, Juan F. & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2019. "Structural combination of seasonal exponential smoothing forecasts applied to load forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(3), pages 916-924.
    8. Dimitriadis, Timo & Liu, Xiaochun & Schnaitmann, Julie, 2020. "Encompassing tests for value at risk and expected shortfall multi-step forecasts based on inference on the boundary," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    9. Michael P. Clements, 2011. "An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Rounding on the SPF Probabilities of Decline and Output Growth Histograms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 207-220, February.
    10. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    11. Turgut Kisinbay & Chikako Baba, 2011. "Predicting Recessions: A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations," IMF Working Papers 2011/235, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Long-Run Restrictions and Survey Forecasts of Output, Consumption and Investment," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    13. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 76-86.
    14. David G. McMillan & Mark E. Wohar, 2010. "Stock return predictability and dividend-price ratio: a nonlinear approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 351-365.
    15. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2014. "Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner," MPRA Paper 55017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Stéphane Sorbe, 2007. "Assessing the Forecast Properties of the CESifo World Economic Climate Indicator: Evidence for the Euro Area," ifo Working Paper Series 46, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    17. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196, Elsevier.
    18. Timo Dimitriadis & Julie Schnaitmann, 2019. "Forecast Encompassing Tests for the Expected Shortfall," Papers 1908.04569, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    19. Guizzardi, Andrea & Stacchini, Annalisa, 2015. "Real-time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 213-223.
    20. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
    21. Stahl, Dale O., 2018. "Assessing the forecast performance of models of choice," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 86-92.
    22. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, May.

  25. David I. Harvey, & Stephen J. Leybourne, & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "A simple, robust and powerful test of the trend hypothesis," Discussion Papers 06/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    Cited by:

    1. Elliott, Graham, 2020. "Testing for a trend with persistent errors," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8qb0j5s7, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Zahra (Mila) Elmi & Omid Ranjbar, 2018. "Re-testing Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: new evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 441-454, January.
    3. Wagner, Alexander F. & Schrimpf, Paul & Petzev, Ivan, 2015. "Has the Pricing of Stocks Become More Global?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10966, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Sungju Chun & Pierre Perron, 2013. "Comparisons of robust tests for shifts in trend with an application to trend deviations of real exchange rates in the long run," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3512-3528, August.
    5. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Bin Xiao, 2007. "A powerful test for linearity when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 07/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    6. Anton Skrobotov, 2015. "Trend and Initial Condition in Stationarity Tests: The Asymptotic Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(2), pages 254-273, April.
    7. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "On the non-convergence of energy intensities: Evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 641-650, January.
    8. Skrobotov, Anton, 2022. "On robust testing for trend," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    9. Ghoshray Atanu & Kejriwal Mohitosh & Wohar Mark, 2014. "Breaks, trends and unit roots in commodity prices: a robust investigation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 23-40, February.
    10. Xu, Ke-Li, 2012. "Robustifying multivariate trend tests to nonstationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 147-154.
    11. Pierre Perron & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2007. "Estimating Deterministic Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-020, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    12. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2023. "Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Harvey, David I. & Kellard, Neil M. & Madsen, Jakob B. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Long-Run Commodity Prices, Economic Growth, and Interest Rates: 17th Century to the Present Day," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 57-70.
    14. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
    15. Yang, Yang & Wang, Shaoping, 2017. "Two simple tests of the trend hypothesis under time-varying variance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 123-128.
    16. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2019-02, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    17. Yeonwoo Rho & Xiaofeng Shao, 2015. "Inference for Time Series Regression Models With Weakly Dependent and Heteroscedastic Errors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 444-457, July.
    18. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
    19. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    20. Rabah Arezki & Kaddour Hadri & Prakash Loungani & Yao Rao, 2013. "Breaking the Dynamic of Relative Primary Commodity Prices in Levels and Volatilities since 1650," Economics Working Papers 13-02, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
    21. Kaddour Hadri, 2010. "What Can We Learn From Primary Commodity Prices Series Which Is Useful To Policymakers In Resource-Rich Countries?," Economics Working Papers 10-07, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
    22. Liu, Guannan & Yao, Shuang, 2020. "A robust test for predictability with unknown persistence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    23. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of uncertainty over both the trend and initial condition," Discussion Papers 08/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    24. Tristan Jourde, 2022. "The rising interconnectedness of the insurance sector," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 397-425, June.
    25. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for unit roots and the impact of quadratic trends, with an application to relative primary commodity prices," Discussion Papers 08/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    26. George Kapetanios & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2016. "Semiparametric Sieve-Type Generalized Least Squares Inference," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 951-985, June.
    27. David I. Harvey, & Stephen J. Leybourne, & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for a unit root when uncertain about the trend [Revised to become 07/03 above]," Discussion Papers 06/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    28. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "The impact of the initial condition on robust tests for a linear trend," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    29. Le Pen, Yannick, 2011. "A pair-wise approach to output convergence between European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 955-964, May.
    30. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne, 2014. "Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 14/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    31. McCulloch, J. Huston, 2016. "Moment Ratio estimation of autoregressive/unit root parameters and autocorrelation-consistent standard errors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 712-733.
    32. Pötscher, Benedikt M. & Preinerstorfer, David, 2017. "Further Results on Size and Power of Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Robust Tests, with an Application to Trend Testing," MPRA Paper 81053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2012. "Unit roots, nonlinearities and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2012-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    34. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Unit root testing in practice: dealing with uncertainty over the trend and initial condition," Discussion Papers 07/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    35. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    36. Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
    37. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
    38. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2013. "Robust testing of time trend and mean with unknown integration order errors Frequency (and Other) Contaminations," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-006, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    39. Astill, Sam & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "Robust tests for a linear trend with an application to equity indices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 168-185.
    40. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2012. "Local-Explosive Approximations to Null Distributions of the Johansen Cointegration Test, with an Application to Cyclical Concordance in the Euro Area," ESSEC Working Papers WP1210, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    41. David Harvey & Neil Kellard & Jakob Madsen & Mark Wohar, 2012. "Trends and Cycles in Real Commodity Prices: 1650-2010," CEH Discussion Papers 010, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    42. Tristan Jourde, 2022. "The Rising Interconnectedness of the Insurance Sector," Working papers 857, Banque de France.
    43. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    44. Ke-Li Xu & Jui-Chung Yang, 2015. "Towards Uniformly Efficient Trend Estimation Under Weak/Strong Correlation and Non-stationary Volatility," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 42(1), pages 63-86, March.
    45. Xu, Ke-Li, 2016. "Multivariate trend function testing with mixed stationary and integrated disturbances," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 38-57.
    46. Rapach, David E. & Ringgenberg, Matthew C. & Zhou, Guofu, 2016. "Short interest and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 46-65.

  26. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Simple, Robust and Powerful Tests of the Breaking Trend Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 06/11, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    2. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2013. "Testing for unit roots in the possible presence of multiple trend breaks using minimum Dickey–Fuller statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 265-284.
    3. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2009. "A Sequential Procedure to Determine the Number of Breaks in Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-005, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Jingjing Yang, 2017. "Consistency of Trend Break Point Estimator with Underspecified Break Number," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2013. "Recursive adjustment, unit root tests and structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 62-82, January.
    6. Bent Jesper Christensen & Robinson Kruse & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2013. "A unified framework for testing in the linear regression model under unknown order of fractional integration," CREATES Research Papers 2013-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Ghoshray Atanu & Kejriwal Mohitosh & Wohar Mark, 2014. "Breaks, trends and unit roots in commodity prices: a robust investigation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 23-40, February.
    8. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Xuewen Yu & Pierre Perron, 2020. "Bootstrap Procedures for Detecting Multiple Persistence Shifts in Heteroskedastic Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2020-009, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    9. Vogelsang, Timothy & Nawaz, Nasreen, 2015. "Estimation and Inference of Linear Trend Slope Ratios with an Application to Global Temperature Data," MPRA Paper 117435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kurozumi Eiji, 2015. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes with Non-Homogeneous Regressors," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, January.
    11. F. Peters & J. P. Mackenbach & W. J. Nusselder, 2016. "Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 687-702, December.
    12. Harvey, David I. & Kellard, Neil M. & Madsen, Jakob B. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Long-Run Commodity Prices, Economic Growth, and Interest Rates: 17th Century to the Present Day," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 57-70.
    13. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
    14. Yang, Yang & Wang, Shaoping, 2017. "Two simple tests of the trend hypothesis under time-varying variance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 123-128.
    15. Anton Skrobotov, 2013. "Local Structural Trend Break in Stationarity Testing," Working Papers 0074, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    16. Marcos Sanso-Navarro, 2011. "Broken trend stationarity of hours worked," Post-Print hal-00712742, HAL.
    17. Anton Skrobotov, 2016. "On Trend Breaks and Initial Condition in Unit Root Testing," Working Papers 0097, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
    18. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2019-02, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    19. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
    20. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    21. Rabah Arezki & Kaddour Hadri & Prakash Loungani & Yao Rao, 2013. "Breaking the Dynamic of Relative Primary Commodity Prices in Levels and Volatilities since 1650," Economics Working Papers 13-02, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
    22. Kaddour Hadri, 2010. "What Can We Learn From Primary Commodity Prices Series Which Is Useful To Policymakers In Resource-Rich Countries?," Economics Working Papers 10-07, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
    23. Harris, David & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Testing For A Unit Root In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1545-1588, December.
    24. Atanu Ghoshray & Issam Malki & Javier Ordóñez, 2022. "On the long-run dynamics of income and wealth inequality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 375-408, February.
    25. Tristan Jourde, 2022. "The rising interconnectedness of the insurance sector," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 397-425, June.
    26. Seong Yeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2016. "Inference on a Structural Break in Trend with Fractionally Integrated Errors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 555-574, July.
    27. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2011. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series," Discussion Papers 11/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    28. Fabien Candau & Michaël Goujon & Jean-François Hoarau & Serge Rey, 2013. "Real exchange rate and competitiveness of an EU’s ultra-peripheral region: La Reunion Island," Working Papers hal-01847942, HAL.
    29. Harris, David & Kew, Hsein & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2020. "Level shift estimation in the presence of non-stationary volatility with an application to the unit root testing problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 354-388.
    30. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.
    31. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2014. "Break Date Estimation for Models with Deterministic Structural Change," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 623-642, October.
    32. Paraskevi Salamaliki, 2015. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Focus on Infrequent Structural Shifts," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-08, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    33. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne, 2014. "Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 14/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    34. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    35. Börger, Matthias & Schupp, Johannes, 2018. "Modeling trend processes in parametric mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 369-380.
    36. Atanu Ghoshray & Ashira Perera, 2016. "An Empirical Study of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 551-571, July.
    37. Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
    38. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Discussion Papers 10/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    39. Anton Skrobotov, 2014. "A simple modification of the Busetti-Harvey stationarity tests with structural breaks at unknown time," Working Papers 0102, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2014.
    40. Sobreira, Nuno & Nunesz, Luis C. & Rodriguesz, Paulo M. M., 2012. "Neoclassical, semi-endogenous or endogenous growth theory? Evidence based on new structural change tests," Insper Working Papers wpe_291, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    41. Wei, Wei & Zhang, Wan-Li & Wen, Jun & Wang, Jun-Sheng, 2020. "TFP growth in Chinese cities: The role of factor-intensity and industrial agglomeration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 534-549.
    42. David Harvey & Neil Kellard & Jakob Madsen & Mark Wohar, 2012. "Trends and Cycles in Real Commodity Prices: 1650-2010," CEH Discussion Papers 010, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    43. Nuno Sobreira & Luis C. Nunes, 2016. "Tests for Multiple Breaks in the Trend with Stationary or Integrated Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(3), pages 394-411, June.
    44. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    45. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nuno Sobreira, 2013. "Characterizing economic growth paths based on new structural change tests," Working Papers w201313, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    46. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    47. Xu, Ke-Li, 2016. "Multivariate trend function testing with mixed stationary and integrated disturbances," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 38-57.
    48. Mario Gómez Aguirre & José Carlos A. Rodríguez Chávez, 2012. "Análisis de la paridad del poder de compra: evidencia empírica entre México y Estados Unidos," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 169-207.
    49. Noguera, José, 2013. "Oil prices: Breaks and trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 60-67.
    50. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series [Revised to become No. 10/01 above]," Discussion Papers 09/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    51. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou, 2017. "The aggregate exports-GDP relation under the prism of infrequent trend breaks and multi-horizon causality," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 661-689, October.
    52. Iacone, Fabrizio & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Robert Taylor, A.M., 2013. "Testing for a break in trend when the order of integration is unknown," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 30-45.
    53. Rapach, David E. & Ringgenberg, Matthew C. & Zhou, Guofu, 2016. "Short interest and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 46-65.

  27. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne & A M Robert Taylor, 2005. "On Robust Trend Function Hypothesis Testing," Discussion Papers 05-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

    Cited by:

    1. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Lisa Xiao, 2009. "Testing for nonlinear trends when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 09/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

  28. Robert Taylor & Stephen Leybourne & David Harvey, 2004. "Modified Tests for a Change in Persistence," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 64, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad Hassan Ahmad & Eric J. Pentecost, 2020. "Testing the ‘Fear of Floating’ Hypothesis: A Statistical Analysis for Eight African Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 407-430, April.
    2. Uwe Hassler & Jan Scheithauer, 2011. "Detecting changes from short to long memory," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 847-870, November.
    3. Eyal Dvir & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Three Epochs of Oil," NBER Working Papers 14927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. A H Ahmad & E J Pentecost, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regime Verification: An Alternative Method of Testing for Regime Changes," Department of Economics Working Papers 22748, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    5. Halunga, Andreea G. & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2009. "Changes in the order of integration of US and UK inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 30-32, January.
    6. Kruse, Yves Robinson & Kaufmann, Hendrik, 2015. "Bias-corrected estimation in mildly explosive autoregressions," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112897, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2017. "Unemployment Rate Hysteresis and the Great Recession: Exploring the Metropolitan Evidence," Working Papers 201740, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Chiquiar Daniel & Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2007. "A Time Series Approach to Test a Change in Inflation Persistence: The Mexican Experience," Working Papers 2007-01, Banco de México.
    9. Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Sibbertsen, Philipp & Voges, Michelle, 2019. "Testing for breaks in the cointegrating relationship: On the stability of government bond markets' equilibrium," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-656, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    10. Zsolt Darvas & Balẳ Varga, 2014. "Inflation persistence in central and eastern European countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(13), pages 1437-1448, May.
    11. S Coleman & K Sirichand, 2015. "Investigating Multiple Changes in Persistence in International Yields," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 20(1), pages 65-90, March.
    12. Simeon Coleman Author name: Vitor Leone, 2012. "Time-series characteristics of UK commercial property returns: Testing for multiple changes in persistence," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2012/03, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    13. Zhanshou Chen & Yanting Xiao & Fuxiao Li, 2021. "Monitoring memory parameter change-points in long-memory time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2365-2389, May.
    14. Roy Cerqueti & Mauro Costantini & Luciano Gutierrez, 2009. "New panel tests to assess inflation persistence," Working Papers 54-2009, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Oct 2009.
    15. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Xuewen Yu & Pierre Perron, 2020. "Bootstrap Procedures for Detecting Multiple Persistence Shifts in Heteroskedastic Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2020-009, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    16. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Dobson, 2011. "Inflation persistence: Implication for a monetary union in the Caribbean," Working Papers 2011017, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    17. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2011. "A Class of Robust Tests in Augmented Predictive Regressions," Working Papers w201126, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Martins, Luis F. & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2014. "Testing for persistence change in fractionally integrated models: An application to world inflation rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 502-522.
    19. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    20. C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007. "Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-099/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    21. Roy Cerqueti & Mauro Costantini & Luciano Gutierrez & Joakim Westerlund, 2019. "Panel stationary tests against changes in persistence," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1079-1100, August.
    22. Chen, Wei & Huang, Zhuo & Yi, Yanping, 2015. "Is there a structural change in the persistence of WTI–Brent oil price spreads in the post-2010 period?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 64-71.
    23. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Signaling asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2012, Bank of Finland.
    24. Gabriel Zsurkis & JoÃo Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "A Re‐Examination of Inflation Persistence Dynamics in OECD Countries: A New Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 935-959, August.
    25. Mohitosh Kejriwal, 2017. "A Robust Sequential Procedure for Estimating the Number of Structural Changes in Persistence," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1303, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    26. Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 67-85.
    27. Petrenko, Victoria (Петренко, ВИктория) & Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Turuntseva, Maria (Турунцева, Мария), 2016. "Testing of Changes in Persistence and Their Effect on the Forecasting Quality [Тестирование Изменения Инерционности И Влияние На Качество Прогнозов]," Working Papers 542, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    28. Park, Cheolbeom, 2010. "When does the dividend-price ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 81-101, January.
    29. Jorge Belaire-Franch, 2019. "A note on the evidence of inflation persistence around the world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1477-1487, May.
    30. Chen, Zhanshou & Jin, Zi & Tian, Zheng & Qi, Peiyan, 2012. "Bootstrap testing multiple changes in persistence for a heavy-tailed sequence," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 2303-2316.
    31. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Matei Demetrescu, 2016. "Residual-augmented IVX predictive regression," Working Papers w201605, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    32. Simeon Coleman & Vitor Leone, 2015. "An investigation of regime shifts in UK commercial property returns: a time series analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(60), pages 6479-6492, December.
    33. Leone, Vitor & de Medeiros, Otavio Ribeiro, 2015. "Signalling the Dotcom bubble: A multiple changes in persistence approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 77-86.
    34. Xiao Han & Nikolaos Sakkas & Jo Danbolt & Arman Eshraghi, 2022. "Persistence of investor sentiment and market mispricing," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 617-640, August.
    35. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    36. Mohamed Bouabidi, 2022. "The Tunisian exchange rate regime: Is it really floating?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4684-4704, October.
    37. Assaf, Ata & Bhandari, Avishek & Charif, Husni & Demir, Ender, 2022. "Multivariate long memory structure in the cryptocurrency market: The impact of COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    38. Pedro Bação, 2006. "The Performance of Structural Change Tests," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 611-628, August.
    39. Pang, Tianxiao & Du, Lingjie & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2021. "Estimating multiple breaks in nonstationary autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 277-311.
    40. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2009. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Working Papers 2009-02, Banco de México.
    41. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Break-Point Date Estimation for Nonstationary Autoregressive and Predictive Regression Models," Papers 2308.13915, arXiv.org.
    42. Górecki, Tomasz & Horváth, Lajos & Kokoszka, Piotr, 2018. "Change point detection in heteroscedastic time series," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 63-88.
    43. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047.
    44. Uwe Hassler & Jan Scheithauer, 2008. "On Critical Values of Tests against a Change in Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 705-710, October.
    45. Daiqing Xi & Tianxiao Pang, 2021. "Estimating multiple breaks in mean sequentially with fractionally integrated errors," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 451-494, February.
    46. Lajos Horváth & William Pouliot & Shixuan Wang, 2017. "Detecting at-Most-m Changes in Linear Regression Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 552-590, July.
    47. Cerqueti, Roy & Costantini, Mauro & Gutierrez, Luciano, 2008. "Change in persistence tests for panels: An update and some new results," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08043, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    48. A. M. Robert Taylor, 2005. "Fluctuation Tests for a Change in Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(2), pages 207-230, April.
    49. Noriega, Antonio E. & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2009. "The dynamics of persistence in US inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 168-172, November.
    50. Rob Ackrill and Simeon Coleman, 2012. "Inflation dynamics in central and eastern European countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2012/01, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    51. Cook, Steven & Fosten, Jack, 2019. "Replicating rockets and feathers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 139-151.
    52. Hans KREMERS & Andreas LOESCHEL, 2010. "The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
    53. Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled & Yousaf, Imran & Bhandari, Avishek, 2023. "Long memory in the high frequency cryptocurrency markets using fractal connectivity analysis: The impact of COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    54. Otavio Ribeiro de Medeiros and Vitor Leone, 2012. "Multiple Changes in Persistence vs. Explosive Behaviour: The Dotcom Bubble," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2012/02, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    55. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Pang, Tianxiao & Zhang, Danna & Liang, Yanling, 2017. "Structural change in non-stationary AR(1) models," MPRA Paper 80510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "A Note on the Dynamics of Persistence in US Inflation," Working Papers 2008-12, Banco de México.
    57. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Ramlogan-Dobson, 2013. "Convergence of Inflationary Shocks: Evidence from the Caribbean," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1229-1243, September.
    58. Hendrik Kaufmannz & Robinson Kruse, 2013. "Bias-corrected estimation in potentially mildly explosive autoregressive models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    59. Li, Fuxiao & Tian, Zheng & Xiao, Yanting & Chen, Zhanshou, 2015. "Variance change-point detection in panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 140-143.
    60. Luis F. Martins & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2022. "Tests for segmented cointegration: an application to US governments budgets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 567-600, August.
    61. Eiji Kurozumi, 2005. "Detection of Structural Change in the Long‐run Persistence in a Univariate Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(2), pages 181-206, April.
    62. Cerqueti, Roy & Costantini, Mauro & Gutierrez, Luciano, 2007. "Change in persistence tests for panels," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp07040, University of Molise, Department of Economics.

Articles

  1. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Robert Sollis & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2021. "Real‐time detection of regimes of predictability in the US equity premium," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 45-70, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2021. "Simple tests for stock return predictability with good size and power properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 198-214.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Whitehouse, Emily J., 2020. "Date-stamping multiple bubble regimes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 226-246.

    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Bingduo & Long, Wei & Yang, Zihui, 2022. "Testing predictability of stock returns under possible bubbles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 246-260.
    2. Lajos Horváth & Hemei Li & Zhenya Liu, 2021. "How to identify the different phases of stock market bubbles statistically?," Post-Print hal-03511435, HAL.
    3. Skrobotov Anton, 2023. "Testing for explosive bubbles: a review," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov, 2021. "On the asymptotic behavior of bubble date estimators," Papers 2110.04500, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.

  4. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Zu, Yang, 2020. "Sign-Based Unit Root Tests For Explosive Financial Bubbles In The Presence Of Deterministically Time-Varying Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 122-169, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Bago, Jean-Louis & Akakpo, Koffi & Rherrad, Imad & Ouédraogo, Ernest, 2020. "Volatility Spillover and International Contagion of Housing Bubbles," MPRA Paper 100098, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of Asset Price Bubbles," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2331, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2019. "Sup-ADF-style bubble-detection methods under test," CQE Working Papers 7819, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    4. Vicente Esteve & María A. Prats, 2022. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: The case of the Spanish public debt, 1850?2021," Working Papers 2205, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    5. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov, 2023. "Improving the accuracy of bubble date estimators under time-varying volatility," Papers 2306.02977, arXiv.org.
    6. Xuanling Yang & Dong Li & Ting Zhang, 2024. "A simple stochastic nonlinear AR model with application to bubble," Papers 2401.07038, arXiv.org.
    7. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov & Alexey Tsarev, 2020. "Time-Transformed Test for the Explosive Bubbles under Non-stationary Volatility," Papers 2012.13937, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    8. Esteve, Vicente & Prats, María A., 2023. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: the case of Spanish public debt," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 116980, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    10. Esteve, Vicente & Prats, María A., 2023. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: The case of Spanish public debt," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Sam Astill & David I Harvey & Stephen J Leybourne & A M Robert Taylor & Yang Zu, 2023. "CUSUM-Based Monitoring for Explosive Episodes in Financial Data in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 187-227.

  5. Iliyan Georgiev & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2019. "A Bootstrap Stationarity Test for Predictive Regression Invalidity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 528-541, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Yang Zu, 2019. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1131-1151, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Robert Sollis & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2018. "Real‐Time Monitoring for Explosive Financial Bubbles," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 863-891, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Caravello, Tomas E. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2023. "Rational bubbles: Too many to be true?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Eiji Kurozumi, 2021. "Asymptotic Behavior of Delay Times of Bubble Monitoring Tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 314-337, May.
    3. Shobande Olatunji Abdul & Shodipe Oladimeji Tomiwa, 2020. "Re-Evaluation of World Population Figures: Politics and Forecasting Mechanics," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 104-125, February.
    4. Judith Eidenberger & Vanessa Redak & Eva Ubl, 2019. "Who puts our financial system at risk? A methodological approach to identify banks with potential significant negative effects on financial stability," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 37, pages 57-72.
    5. Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Dettoni, Robinson & Costamagna, Rodrigo & Valenzuela, Mario, 2019. "Rational bubbles in the real housing stock market: Empirical evidence from Santiago de Chile," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 269-281.
    6. Sam Astill & David I Harvey & Stephen J Leybourne & A M Robert Taylor & Yang Zu, 2023. "CUSUM-Based Monitoring for Explosive Episodes in Financial Data in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 187-227.

  8. Georgiev, Iliyan & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2018. "Testing for parameter instability in predictive regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 101-118.

    Cited by:

    1. Xiaohui Liu & Yuzi Liu & Yao Rao & Fucai Lu, 2021. "A Unified test for the Intercept of a Predictive Regression Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 571-588, April.
    2. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Xuewen Yu & Pierre Perron, 2020. "Bootstrap Procedures for Detecting Multiple Persistence Shifts in Heteroskedastic Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2020-009, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. Boldea, Otilia & Cornea-Madeira, Adriana & Hall, Alastair R., 2019. "Bootstrapping structural change tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 359-397.
    4. Liu, Yanbo & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2023. "Robust inference with stochastic local unit root regressors in predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 563-591.
    5. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Break Detection in Quantile Predictive Regression Models with Persistent Covariates," Papers 2302.05193, arXiv.org.
    6. Torben G. Andersen & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2021. "Testing for Parameter Instability and Structural Change in Persistent Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 28570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Matei Demetrescu, 2019. "Testing for Episodic Predictability in Stock Returns," Working Papers w201906, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Fukang Zhu & Mengya Liu & Shiqing Ling & Zongwu Cai, 2020. "Testing for Structural Change of Predictive Regression Model to Threshold Predictive Regression Model," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202021, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2020.
    9. Anibal Emiliano Da Silva Neto & Jesús Gonzalo & Jean‐Yves Pitarakis, 2021. "Uncovering Regimes in Out of Sample Forecast Errors from Predictive Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 713-741, June.
    10. Mikihito Nishi, 2023. "Testing for Stationary or Persistent Coefficient Randomness in Predictive Regressions," Papers 2309.04926, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    11. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Bootstrapping Nonstationary Autoregressive Processes with Predictive Regression Models," Papers 2307.14463, arXiv.org.
    12. Cai, Zongwu & Juhl, Ted, 2023. "The distribution of rolling regression estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1447-1463.
    13. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Limit Theory under Network Dependence and Nonstationarity," Papers 2308.01418, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    14. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Predictability Tests Robust against Parameter Instability," Papers 2307.15151, arXiv.org.
    15. Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2019. "Predictive Regressions," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28554, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    16. Zongwu Cai & Ted Juhl, 2020. "The Distribution Of Rolling Regression Estimators," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202218, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2022.

  9. Harvey, David I. & Kellard, Neil M. & Madsen, Jakob B. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Long-Run Commodity Prices, Economic Growth, and Interest Rates: 17th Century to the Present Day," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 57-70.

    Cited by:

    1. Yasmeen Idilbi-Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices Using the Term Structure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-39, December.
    2. Christophe Gouel & Qingyin Ma & John Stachurski, 2023. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Commodity Prices," Papers 2308.07577, arXiv.org.
    3. Fernandez, Viviana, 2019. "A readily computable commodity price index: 1900–2016," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    4. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    5. Ojeda-Joya, Jair & Jaulin-Mendez, Oscar & Bustos-Pelaez, Juan, 2015. "The Interdependence between Commodity-Price and GDP Cycles: A Frequency-Domain Approach," MPRA Paper 90403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Nov 2018.
    6. Abbas, Syed Kanwar & Lan, Hao, 2020. "Commodity price pass-through and inflation regimes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    7. Yves Jégourel, 2017. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 1) : le débat sur l’hypothèse de Prebisch-Singer," Policy notes & Policy briefs 1729, Policy Center for the New South.
    8. Infante-Amate, Juan & Krausmann, Fridolin, 2019. "Trade, Ecologically Unequal Exchange and Colonial Legacy: The Case of France and its Former Colonies (1962–2015)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 98-109.
    9. Saidi, Samir & Mani, Venkatesh & Mefteh, Haifa & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Akhtar, Pervaiz, 2020. "Dynamic linkages between transport, logistics, foreign direct Investment, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from developing countries," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 277-293.
    10. Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Persistence in Trends and Cycles of Gold and Silver Prices: Evidence from Historical Data," Working Papers 201816, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Makhlouf, Yousef & Kellard, Neil M. & Vinogradov, Dmitri, 2017. "Child mortality, commodity price volatility and the resource curse," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 144-156.
    12. Awaworyi-Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2022. "Breaks, trends and correlations in commodity prices in the very long-run," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Umair Kashif & Junguo Shi & Snovia Naseem & Muhammad Ayaz & Rehan Sohail Butt & Waris Ali Khan & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2023. "Do agricultural commodity prices asymmetrically affect the performance of value-added agriculture? Evidence from Pakistan using a NARDL model," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    14. Ge, Yiqing & Tang, Ke, 2020. "Commodity prices and GDP growth," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Yousef Makhlouf, 2023. "Trends in Income Inequality: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 213-243, January.
    16. Gray, Rowena & Narciso, Gaia & Tortorici, Gaspare, 2019. "Globalization, agricultural markets and mass migration: Italy, 1881–1912," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Fernandez, Viviana, 2019. "Assessing cycles of mine production and prices of industrial metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2019. "Do international primary commodity prices exhibit asymmetric adjustment?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 40-50.

  10. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Whitehouse, Emily J., 2017. "Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 833-847.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Aristidou Chrystalleni & Harvey David I. & Leybourne Stephen J., 2017. "The Impact of the Initial Condition on Covariate Augmented Unit Root Tests," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Sollis, Robert, 2017. "Improving the accuracy of asset price bubble start and end date estimators," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 121-138.

    Cited by:

    1. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    2. Lajos Horváth & Hemei Li & Zhenya Liu, 2021. "How to identify the different phases of stock market bubbles statistically?," Post-Print hal-03511435, HAL.
    3. Kruse, Robinson & Kaufmann, Hendrik & Wegener, Christoph, 2018. "Bias-corrected estimation for speculative bubbles in stock prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 354-364.
    4. Emily J. Whitehouse & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2023. "Real‐Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 482-513, June.
    5. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2017. "Tests for an end-of-sample bubble in financial time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 651-666, October.
    6. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Yang Zu, 2019. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1131-1151, November.
    7. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Whitehouse, Emily J., 2020. "Date-stamping multiple bubble regimes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 226-246.
    8. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov, 2023. "Improving the accuracy of bubble date estimators under time-varying volatility," Papers 2306.02977, arXiv.org.
    9. Theodosios Perifanis, 2019. "Detecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Prices’ Bubble Periods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.
    10. Lajos Horv'ath & Lorenzo Trapani, 2023. "Real-time monitoring with RCA models," Papers 2312.11710, arXiv.org.
    11. Pang, Tianxiao & Du, Lingjie & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2021. "Estimating multiple breaks in nonstationary autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 277-311.
    12. Astill, Sam & Taylor, A.M. Robert & Kellard, Neil & Korkos, Ioannis, 2023. "Using covariates to improve the efficacy of univariate bubble detection methods," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 342-366.
    13. Andria C. Evripidou & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Robert Sollis, 2022. "Testing for Co‐explosive Behaviour in Financial Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 624-650, June.
    14. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Robert Sollis & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2018. "Real‐Time Monitoring for Explosive Financial Bubbles," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 863-891, November.
    15. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov, 2023. "On the asymptotic behavior of bubble date estimators," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 359-373, July.
    16. Skrobotov Anton, 2023. "Testing for explosive bubbles: a review," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    17. Potrykus, Marcin, 2023. "Investing in wine, precious metals and G-7 stock markets – A co-occurrence analysis for price bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    18. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena & Skrobotov, Anton, 2017. "Testing time series for the bubbles (with application to Russian data)," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 46, pages 90-103.
    19. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Pang, Tianxiao & Zhang, Danna & Liang, Yanling, 2017. "Structural change in non-stationary AR(1) models," MPRA Paper 80510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Moreira, Afonso M. & Martins, Luis F., 2020. "A new mechanism for anticipating price exuberance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 199-221.
    21. Bellón, Carlos & Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel, 2022. "Bubbles in Ethereum," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    22. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Co-explosivity in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 178-183.
    23. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov, 2021. "On the asymptotic behavior of bubble date estimators," Papers 2110.04500, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.

  13. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2017. "Tests for an end-of-sample bubble in financial time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 651-666, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Sollis, Robert & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2016. "Tests for explosive financial bubbles in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 548-574.

    Cited by:

    1. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    2. Escobari, Diego & Garcia, Sergio & Mellado, Cristhian, 2017. "Identifying bubbles in Latin American equity markets: Phillips-Perron-based tests and linkages," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 90-101.
    3. Bago, Jean-Louis & Akakpo, Koffi & Rherrad, Imad & Ouédraogo, Ernest, 2020. "Volatility Spillover and International Contagion of Housing Bubbles," MPRA Paper 100098, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lajos Horváth & Hemei Li & Zhenya Liu, 2021. "How to identify the different phases of stock market bubbles statistically?," Post-Print hal-03511435, HAL.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2019. "Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(6), pages 1336-1361, December.
    6. Lajos Horváth & Curtis Miller & Gregory Rice, 2021. "Detecting early or late changes in linear models with heteroscedastic errors," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 48(2), pages 577-609, June.
    7. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux & Shuping Shi, 2017. "Did bubbles migrate from the stock to the housing market in China between 2005 and 2010?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 276-292, August.
    8. Wang, Xichen & Yan, Ji (Karena) & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2021. "Emerging stock market exuberance and international short-term flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Lajos Horvath & Lorenzo Trapani, 2021. "Changepoint detection in random coefficient autoregressive models," Papers 2104.13440, arXiv.org.
    10. Emily J. Whitehouse & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2023. "Real‐Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 482-513, June.
    11. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Lui, Yiu Lim & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Yu, Jun, 2022. "Robust Testing for Explosive Behavior with Strongly Dependent Errors," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 11-2022, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    13. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of Asset Price Bubbles," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2331, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Boswijk, H. Peter & Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rahbek, Anders, 2021. "Bootstrapping non-stationary stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 161-180.
    15. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2019. "Sup-ADF-style bubble-detection methods under test," CQE Working Papers 7819, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    16. Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard & Schütte, Erik Christian Montes, 2020. "Testing for explosive bubbles in the presence of autocorrelated innovations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 207-225.
    17. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2017. "Tests for an end-of-sample bubble in financial time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 651-666, October.
    18. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Yang Zu, 2019. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1131-1151, November.
    19. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2022. "Bubbles in US gasoline prices: Assessing the role of hurricanes and anti–price gouging laws," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    20. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    21. Canepa Alessandra, 2022. "Small Sample Adjustment for Hypotheses Testing on Cointegrating Vectors," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 51-85, January.
    22. Anna Creti & Marc Joëts, 2014. "Multiple bubbles in European Union Emission Trading Scheme," Post-Print hal-01411636, HAL.
    23. Caravello, Tomas E. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2023. "Rational bubbles: Too many to be true?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    24. Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping & Tan, David, 2020. "Gold as a Financial Instrument," MPRA Paper 102782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Fantazzini, Dean, 2016. "The Oil Price Crash in 2014/15: Was There a (Negative) Financial Bubble?," MPRA Paper 72094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Whitehouse, Emily J., 2020. "Date-stamping multiple bubble regimes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 226-246.
    27. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov, 2023. "Improving the accuracy of bubble date estimators under time-varying volatility," Papers 2306.02977, arXiv.org.
    28. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick, 2016. "The shine of precious metals around the global financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 717-738.
    29. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2023. "Price bubbles of agricultural commodities: evidence from China’s futures market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 195-222, January.
    30. Li, Yanglin & Wang, Shaoping & Zhao, Qing, 2021. "When does the stock market recover from a crisis?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    31. Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Mapping algorithms, agricultural futures, and the relationship between commodity investment flows and crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 486-504.
    32. Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2017. "Are there bubbles in exchange rates? Some new evidence from G10 and emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 419-442.
    33. Grabowski, Wojciech & Welfe, Aleksander, 2020. "The Tobit cointegrated vector autoregressive model: An application to the currency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-100.
    34. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2018. "Sentiment and asset price bubble in the precious metals markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 106-111.
    35. Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2018. "Bubble contagion: Evidence from Japan’s asset price bubble of the 1980-90s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 89-95.
    36. Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.
    37. Alexakis, Christos & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Dowling, Michael, 2017. "Do cointegrated commodities bubble together? the case of hog, corn, and soybean," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 96-102.
    38. Shuping Shi & Peter C B Phillips, 2020. "Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer," CAMA Working Papers 2020-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    39. Pang, Tianxiao & Du, Lingjie & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2021. "Estimating multiple breaks in nonstationary autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 277-311.
    40. Kristoffer Pons Bertelsen, 2019. "Comparing Tests for Identification of Bubbles," CREATES Research Papers 2019-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    41. Astill, Sam & Taylor, A.M. Robert & Kellard, Neil & Korkos, Ioannis, 2023. "Using covariates to improve the efficacy of univariate bubble detection methods," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 342-366.
    42. Andria C. Evripidou & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Robert Sollis, 2022. "Testing for Co‐explosive Behaviour in Financial Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 624-650, June.
    43. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Sari, Emre, 2018. "Dynamics of the Turkish paintings market: A comprehensive empirical study," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 180-194.
    44. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov & Alexey Tsarev, 2020. "Time-Transformed Test for the Explosive Bubbles under Non-stationary Volatility," Papers 2012.13937, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    45. Zeren Feyyaz & Yilanci Veli, 2019. "Are there Multiple Bubbles in the Stock Markets? Further Evidence from Selected Countries," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 98(1), pages 81-95, June.
    46. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Robert Sollis & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2018. "Real‐Time Monitoring for Explosive Financial Bubbles," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 863-891, November.
    47. Ramit Sawhney & Shivam Agarwal & Vivek Mittal & Paolo Rosso & Vikram Nanda & Sudheer Chava, 2022. "Cryptocurrency Bubble Detection: A New Stock Market Dataset, Financial Task & Hyperbolic Models," Papers 2206.06320, arXiv.org.
    48. Eray Gemici & Muslum Polat & Remzi Gök & Muhammad Asif Khan & Mohammed Arshad Khan & Yunus Kilic, 2023. "Do Bubbles in the Bitcoin Market Impact Stock Markets? Evidence From 10 Major Stock Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    49. Gharib, Cheima & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Serret, Vanessa & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on crude oil prices: Evidence from Econophysics approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    50. Eiji Kurozumi, 2021. "Asymptotic Behavior of Delay Times of Bubble Monitoring Tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 314-337, May.
    51. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2021. "Global convergence of inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    52. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti & Christopher L. Gilbert & J. Roderick McCrorie, 2015. "Testing for Mild Explosivity and Bubbles in LME Non-Ferrous Metals Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 763-782, September.
    53. Akcora, Begum & Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2023. "Price bubbles in the European natural gas market between 2011 and 2020," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    54. Esteve, Vicente & Prats, María A., 2023. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: the case of Spanish public debt," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 116980, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    55. Wang, Shaoping & Feng, Hao & Gao, Da, 2023. "Testing for short explosive bubbles: A case of Brent oil futures price," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    56. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena & Skrobotov, Anton, 2017. "Testing time series for the bubbles (with application to Russian data)," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 46, pages 90-103.
    57. Floro, Danvee, 2019. "Testing the predictive ability of house price bubbles for macroeconomic performance: A meta-analytic approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 164-181.
    58. Basse, Tobias & Klein, Tony & Vigne, Samuel A. & Wegener, Christoph, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and the dot.com-bubble: Can dividend policy rescue the efficient market hypothesis?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    59. Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Detection of bubbles in WTI, brent, and Dubai oil prices: A novel double recursive algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    60. Moreira, Afonso M. & Martins, Luis F., 2020. "A new mechanism for anticipating price exuberance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 199-221.
    61. Steenkamp, Daan, 2018. "Explosiveness in G11 currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 388-408.
    62. Meng, Bo & Vijh, Anand M., 2021. "Stock merger activity and industry performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    63. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    64. Esteve, Vicente & Prats, María A., 2023. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: The case of Spanish public debt," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    65. Sam Astill & David I Harvey & Stephen J Leybourne & A M Robert Taylor & Yang Zu, 2023. "CUSUM-Based Monitoring for Explosive Episodes in Financial Data in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 187-227.
    66. Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2018. "Do 18th century ‘bubbles’ survive the scrutiny of 21st century time series econometrics?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 131-134.
    67. Assaf, Ata, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in the art markets: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 340-355.

  15. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2015. "Robust and Powerful Tests for Nonlinear Deterministic Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(6), pages 780-799, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Atanu Ghoshray & Madhavi Pundit, 2021. "Economic growth in China and its impact on international commodity prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2776-2789, April.
    2. Winkelried, Diego, 2015. "Unit Roots, Flexible Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Working Papers 2015-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Enders Walter & Jones Paul, 2016. "Grain prices, oil prices, and multiple smooth breaks in a VAR," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 399-419, September.
    4. Pierre Perron & Mototsugu Shintaniz & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2020. "Trigonometric Trend Regressions of Unknown Frequencies with Stationary or Integrated Noise," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2020-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    5. Pierre Perron & Mototsugu Shintani & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2015. "Testing for Flexible Nonlinear Trends with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 15-00001, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    6. Takamitsu Kurita & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023. "Johansen Test with Fourier-Type Smooth Nonlinear Trends in Cointegrating Relations," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1216, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

  16. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Robert Sollis, 2015. "Recursive Right-Tailed Unit Root Tests for an Explosive Asset Price Bubble," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 166-187.

    Cited by:

    1. Escobari, Diego & Garcia, Sergio & Mellado, Cristhian, 2017. "Identifying bubbles in Latin American equity markets: Phillips-Perron-based tests and linkages," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 90-101.
    2. Akanksha Jalan & Roman Matkovskyy & Valerio Potì, 2022. "Shall the winning last? A study of recent bubbles and persistence," Post-Print hal-03603161, HAL.
    3. KIRKPINAR, Aysegul & ERER, Elif & ERER, Deniz, 2019. "Is There A Rational Bubble In Bist 100 And Sector Indices?," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 23(3), pages 21-33, September.
    4. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick, 2016. "The shine of precious metals around the global financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 717-738.
    5. Benjamin Beckers, 2015. "The Real-Time Predictive Content of Asset Price Bubbles for Macro Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1496, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Alexakis, Christos & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Dowling, Michael, 2017. "Do cointegrated commodities bubble together? the case of hog, corn, and soybean," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 96-102.
    7. Pang, Tianxiao & Du, Lingjie & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2021. "Estimating multiple breaks in nonstationary autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 277-311.
    8. Nishi, Mikihito & 西, 幹仁 & Kurozumi, Eiji & 黒住, 英司, 2022. "Stochastic Local and Moderate Departures from a Unit Root and Its Application to Unit Root Testing," Discussion Papers 2022-02, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Eiji Kurozumi, 2021. "Asymptotic Behavior of Delay Times of Bubble Monitoring Tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 314-337, May.
    10. Skrobotov Anton, 2023. "Testing for explosive bubbles: a review," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    11. Wang, Shaoping & Feng, Hao & Gao, Da, 2023. "Testing for short explosive bubbles: A case of Brent oil futures price," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena & Skrobotov, Anton, 2017. "Testing time series for the bubbles (with application to Russian data)," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 46, pages 90-103.
    13. Zhao, Zhao & Wen, Huwei & Li, Ke, 2021. "Identifying bubbles and the contagion effect between oil and stock markets: New evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 780-788.
    14. Moreira, Afonso M. & Martins, Luis F., 2020. "A new mechanism for anticipating price exuberance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 199-221.
    15. Christopher Lynch & Benjamin Mestel, 2019. "Change-Point Analysis Of Asset Price Bubbles With Power-Law Hazard Function," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(07), pages 1-24, November.
    16. Sam Astill & David I Harvey & Stephen J Leybourne & A M Robert Taylor & Yang Zu, 2023. "CUSUM-Based Monitoring for Explosive Episodes in Financial Data in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 187-227.
    17. Marco R. Barassi & Nicola Spagnolo & Yuqian Zhao, 2018. "Fractional Integration Versus Structural Change: Testing the Convergence of $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(4), pages 923-968, December.

  17. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2015. "Testing for Unit Roots Under Multiple Possible Trend Breaks and Non-Stationary Volatility Using Bootstrap Minimum Dickey–Fuller Statistics," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 603-629, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Rickard Sandberg, 2018. "Unit Root Testing in Multiple Smooth Break Models with Nonlinear Dynamics," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 942-952, November.
    2. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    3. Mustafa Akpinar & Nejat Yumusak, 2016. "Year Ahead Demand Forecast of City Natural Gas Using Seasonal Time Series Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, September.

  18. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J., 2015. "Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 262-279.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "On infimum Dickey–Fuller unit root tests allowing for a trend break under the null," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 235-242.

    Cited by:

    1. Xue-hua Zhao & Xu Chen, 2015. "Auto Regressive and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Hybrid Model for Annual Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2913-2926, June.
    2. Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Modeling the dynamics of import in the Russian Federation using the error correction model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 59, pages 88-112.

  20. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J., 2014. "Asymptotic behaviour of tests for a unit root against an explosive alternative," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 64-68.

    Cited by:

    1. Kruse, Robinson & Kaufmann, Hendrik & Wegener, Christoph, 2018. "Bias-corrected estimation for speculative bubbles in stock prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 354-364.
    2. Skrobotov Anton, 2023. "Testing for explosive bubbles: a review," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena & Skrobotov, Anton, 2017. "Testing time series for the bubbles (with application to Russian data)," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 46, pages 90-103.
    4. Patrick Marsh, 2019. "Properties of the power envelope for tests against both stationary and explosive alternatives: the effect of trends," Discussion Papers 19/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    5. Anton Skrobotov, 2013. "Double Unit Roots Testing, GLS-detrending and Uncertainty over the Initial Conditions," Working Papers 0083, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.

  21. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2014. "Break Date Estimation for Models with Deterministic Structural Change," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 623-642, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2014. "Unit Root Testing under a Local Break in Trend using Partial Information on the Break Date," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(1), pages 93-111, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Anton Skrobotov, 2016. "On Trend Breaks and Initial Condition in Unit Root Testing," Working Papers 0097, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
    2. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    3. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    4. K. Moses Tule & O. Taiwo Ajilore, 2016. "On the stability of the money multiplier in Nigeria: Co-integration analyses with regime shifts in banking system liquidity," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1187780-118, December.

  23. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2013. "A bootstrap test for additive outliers in non-stationary time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 454-465, July.

    Cited by:

    1. V. A. Reisen & C. Lévy-Leduc & M. Bourguignon & H. Boistard, 2017. "Robust Dickey–Fuller tests based on ranks for time series with additive outliers," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 80(1), pages 115-131, January.
    2. Alanya-Beltran, Willy, 2022. "Unit roots in lower-bounded series with outliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

  24. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2013. "Testing for unit roots in the possible presence of multiple trend breaks using minimum Dickey–Fuller statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 265-284.

    Cited by:

    1. Esteve García, Vicente & Navarro Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats Albentosa, María Asuncíon, 2017. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices revisited: Long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2012," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-93, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Yannick Hoga, 2022. "Quantifying the data-dredging bias in structural break tests," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 143-155, February.
    3. Ana Lourdes Morones Carrillo, 2016. "Crecimiento económico en México: restricción por la balanza de pagos," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 39-58, May.
    4. Martha Ofelia Lobo Rodriguez & Carlos Alberto Flores Sanchez & Duniesky Feito Madrigal & Jorge Quiroz Felix, 2016. "An Econometric Analysis Of The Demand For Tourism In Mexico, Un Analisis Econometrico De La Demanda De Turismo En Mexico," Revista Internacional Administracion & Finanzas, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(3), pages 61-70.
    5. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2016. "The Impact of Pre-marital Sex Ratios on Household Saving in Two Asian Countries: The Competitive Saving Motive Revisited," NBER Working Papers 22412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Brantley Liddle & George Messinis, 2018. "Revisiting carbon Kuznets curves with endogenous breaks modeling: evidence of decoupling and saturation (but few inverted-Us) for individual OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 783-798, March.
    7. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J., 2016. "Improving the length of confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 239-245.
    8. Atanu Ghoshray & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordóñez, 2020. "Economic integration and the distribution of income in Europe: A between country analysis," Working Papers 2020/11, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    9. Ricardo Quineche & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2017. "Selecting the Lag Length for the M GLS Unit Root Tests with Structural Change: A Warning Note for Practitioners Based on Simulations," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-10, April.
    10. Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Tzavalis, Elias & Vrontos, Ioannis, 2017. "On Bayesian analysis and unit root testing for autoregressive models in the presence of multiple structural breaks," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 70-90.
    11. Eléazar Zerbo, 2015. "What determines the long-run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Exploring the role of energy, trade openness and financial development in six countries," Working Papers hal-01238524, HAL.
    12. Anton Skrobotov, 2013. "Local Structural Trend Break in Stationarity Testing," Working Papers 0074, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    13. Rickard Sandberg, 2018. "Unit Root Testing in Multiple Smooth Break Models with Nonlinear Dynamics," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 942-952, November.
    14. Bashir Olayinka Kolawole, 2021. "Fiscal Stability and Macroeconomic Environment in Nigeria: A Further Assessment," Theory Methodology Practice (TMP), Faculty of Economics, University of Miskolc, vol. 17(02), pages 53-66.
    15. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2020. "Stock prices, dividends, and structural changes in the long-term: The case of U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Atanu Ghoshray & Issam Malki & Javier Ordóñez, 2022. "On the long-run dynamics of income and wealth inequality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 375-408, February.
    17. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor & Bart Verpagen, 2019. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in long run time series," LEM Papers Series 2019/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    18. Manveer Kaur Mangat & Erhard Reschenhofer, 2020. "Frequency-Domain Evidence for Climate Change," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    19. Lajos Horváth & Gregory Rice, 2014. "Extensions of some classical methods in change point analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(2), pages 219-255, June.
    20. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2016. "‘Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India’ — A failed replication (negative Type 1 and Type 2)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 150-160.
    21. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.
    22. Paraskevi Salamaliki, 2015. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Focus on Infrequent Structural Shifts," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-08, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    23. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne, 2014. "Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 14/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    24. Vicente Esteve & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(2), pages 219-249, May.
    25. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2017. "The impact of sex ratios before marriage on household saving in two Asian countries: The competitive saving motive revisited," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 739-757, September.
    26. Mariam Camarero & Alejandro Muñoz & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "50 Years of Capital Mobility in the Eurozone: Breaking the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 867-905, November.
    27. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    28. Liddle, Brantley & Messinis, George, 2014. "Revisiting sulfur Kuznets curves with endogenous breaks modeling: Substantial evidence of inverted-Us/Vs for individual OECD countries," MPRA Paper 59565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Parewangi, Andi M. Alfian & Iskandar, Azwar, 2020. "The Nexus of Islamic Finance and Poverty," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 61(2), pages 111-139, December.
    30. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou, 2017. "The aggregate exports-GDP relation under the prism of infrequent trend breaks and multi-horizon causality," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 661-689, October.
    31. Marina Faďoš & Mária Bohdalová, 2019. "Unemployment gender inequality: evidence from the 27 European Union countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(3), pages 349-371, September.
    32. Martin B. Schmidt, 2021. "On the evolution of athlete anthropometric measurements: racial integration, expansion, and steroids," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3419-3443, December.
    33. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2015. "Testing for Unit Roots Under Multiple Possible Trend Breaks and Non-Stationary Volatility Using Bootstrap Minimum Dickey–Fuller Statistics," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 603-629, September.

  25. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 140-167.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of uncertainty over both the trend and initial condition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 188-195.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J., 2012. "An infimum coefficient unit root test allowing for an unknown break in trend," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 298-302.

    Cited by:

    1. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2014. "Unit Root Testing under a Local Break in Trend using Partial Information on the Break Date," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(1), pages 93-111, February.
    2. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    3. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.

  28. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223.

    Cited by:

    1. Bentes, Sonia R. & Menezes, Rui, 2013. "On the predictability of realized volatility using feasible GLS," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 58-66.
    2. Rodrigues, Bruno Dore & Stevenson, Maxwell J., 2013. "Takeover prediction using forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 628-641.
    3. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Testing the Value of Probability Forecasts for Calibrated Combining," Discussion Papers 13-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    4. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    5. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Andres Ramirez Hassan, 2020. "Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 33/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
    8. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Pablo Pincheira-Brown & Andrea Bentancor & Nicolás Hardy, 2023. "An Inconvenient Truth about Forecast Combinations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-24, September.
    10. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 02/2013, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    11. Cristina Conflitti & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Stephen Hora & Erim Kardeş, 2015. "Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 229(1), pages 429-450, June.
    13. Trapero, Juan R. & Cardós, Manuel & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2019. "Quantile forecast optimal combination to enhance safety stock estimation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 239-250.
    14. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Lyon, Aidan & Wintle, Bonnie C. & Burgman, Mark, 2015. "Collective wisdom: Methods of confidence interval aggregation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1759-1767.
    18. Fabian Krüger & Ingmar Nolte, 2011. "Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-43, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    19. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
    20. Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M Martin & David T. Frazier, 2020. "Focused Bayesian Prediction," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    21. Qian, Wei & Rolling, Craig A. & Cheng, Gang & Yang, Yuhong, 2022. "Combining forecasts for universally optimal performance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 193-208.
    22. Pablo Pincheira, 2012. "Are Forecast Combinations Efficient?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 661, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
    24. Bermejo Mancera, Miguel Ángel & Peña, Daniel & Sánchez, Ismael, 2011. "Densidad de predicción basada en momentos condicionados y máxima entropía : aplicación a la predicción de potencia eólica," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws111813, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    25. Giovanni De Luca & Alfonso Carfora, 2014. "Predicting U.S. recessions through a combination of probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 127-144, February.
    26. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, May.

  29. Ahmad, A.H. & Harvey, David I. & Pentecost, Eric J., 2011. "Exchange rate regime verification: An alternative method of testing for regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 96-98, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad Hassan Ahmad & Eric J. Pentecost, 2020. "Testing the ‘Fear of Floating’ Hypothesis: A Statistical Analysis for Eight African Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 407-430, April.
    2. Ahmad, A.H. & Pentecost, Eric J., 2012. "Identifying aggregate supply and demand shocks in small open economies: Empirical evidence from African countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 272-291.
    3. A H Ahmad & Eric J Pentecost, 2012. "The Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in African Countries," Department of Economics Working Papers 4/12, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    4. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Pentecost, Eric J. & Stack, Marie M., 2023. "Foreign aid, debt interest repayments and Dutch disease effects in a real exchange rate model for African countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Mohamed Bouabidi, 2022. "The Tunisian exchange rate regime: Is it really floating?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4684-4704, October.
    6. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Muhammad Shahbaz & Trinh Thi Mai & Moade Shubita, 2021. "Development of Vietnamese stock market: Influence of domestic macroeconomic environment and regional markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1435-1458, January.
    7. Ahmad Ahmad & Olalekan Aworinde, 2015. "Structural breaks and twin deficits hypothesis in African countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-35, February.

  30. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2011. "Testing For Unit Roots In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend And Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 957-991, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2011. "Testing for Unit Roots and the Impact of Quadratic Trends, with an Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 514-547, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 342-358, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Lisa Xiao, 2010. "Testing for nonlinear deterministic components when the order of integration is unknown," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 379-391, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Bent Jesper Christensen & Robinson Kruse & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2013. "A unified framework for testing in the linear regression model under unknown order of fractional integration," CREATES Research Papers 2013-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Pierre Perron & Mototsugu Shintaniz & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2020. "Trigonometric Trend Regressions of Unknown Frequencies with Stationary or Integrated Noise," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2020-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. Pierre Perron & Mototsugu Shintani & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2015. "Testing for Flexible Nonlinear Trends with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 15-00001, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    4. Takamitsu Kurita & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023. "Johansen Test with Fourier-Type Smooth Nonlinear Trends in Cointegrating Relations," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1216, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

  34. Harris, David & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Sakkas, Nikolaos D., 2010. "Local Asymptotic Power Of The Im-Pesaran-Shin Panel Unit Root Test And The Impact Of Initial Observations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 311-324, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010. "The impact of the initial condition on robust tests for a linear trend," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 292-302, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. David I. Harvey & Neil M. Kellard & Jakob B. Madsen & Mark E. Wohar, 2010. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: Four Centuries of Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 367-377, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Md. Rabiul Islam, 2010. "Quality-adjusted Human Capital and Productivity Growth," Monash Economics Working Papers 48-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Zahra (Mila) Elmi & Omid Ranjbar, 2018. "Re-testing Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: new evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 441-454, January.
    3. Cécile Couharde & Vincent Geronimi & Armand Taranco, 2012. "Les hausses récentes des cours des matières premières traduisent-elles l'entrée dans un régime de prix plus élevés?," Post-Print hal-01385858, HAL.
    4. Winkelried, Diego, 2015. "Piecewise linear trends and cycles in primary commodity prices," Working Papers 2015-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    5. Arezki, Rabah & Lederman, Daniel & Zhao, Hongyan, 2011. "The relative volatility of commodity prices : a reappraisal," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5903, The World Bank.
    6. Hyeongwoo Kim & Yunxiao Zhang, 2017. "Investigating Properties of Commodity Price Responses to Real and Nominal Shocks," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2017-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    7. Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
    8. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Dachraoui, Hajer & Sebri, Maamar, 2021. "Natural resource rents and economic growth in the top resource-abundant countries: A PMG estimation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2010. "From Trends in Commodities and Manufactures to Country Terms of Trade," MERIT Working Papers 2010-022, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    10. Joseph P Byrne & Ryuta Sakemoto & Bing Xu, 2020. "Commodity price co-movement: heterogeneity and the time-varying impact of fundamentals [Oil price shocks and the stock market: evidence from Japan]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(2), pages 499-528.
    11. Chiara Casoli & Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti, 2021. "Permanent-Transitory decomposition of cointegrated time series via Dynamic Factor Models, with an application to commodity prices," Working Papers 2021.19, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Boris Petkov, 2018. "Natural Resource Abundance: Is it a Blessing or is it a Curse," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 25-56, September.
    13. Opa Kapijimpanga, 2023. "Debt Sustainability in the Context of African Dependency and Underdevelopment," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 66(3), pages 251-259, December.
    14. Skrobotov, Anton, 2022. "On robust testing for trend," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    15. Tarlok Singh, 2023. "Do terms of trade affect economic growth? Robust evidence from India," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 491-521, April.
    16. Dierk Herzer, 2009. "Cross-country heterogeneity and the trade-income relationship," FIW Working Paper series 026, FIW.
    17. Ghoshray Atanu & Kejriwal Mohitosh & Wohar Mark, 2014. "Breaks, trends and unit roots in commodity prices: a robust investigation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 23-40, February.
    18. Ourens, Guzmán, 2017. "Uneven growth in the extensive margin: explaining the lag of agricultural economies," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1704, CEPREMAP.
    19. Atanu Ghoshray & Madhavi Pundit, 2021. "Economic growth in China and its impact on international commodity prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2776-2789, April.
    20. V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2014. "The Optimal Extraction of Exhaustible Resources," Economic Policy Paper 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    21. Jean-François Carpantier, 2021. "Commodity Prices in Empirical Research," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 199-227, Springer.
    22. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2023. "Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    23. Yu Ri Kim, 2019. "Does aid for trade diversify the export structure of recipient countries?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(9), pages 2684-2722, September.
    24. Harvey, David I. & Kellard, Neil M. & Madsen, Jakob B. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Long-Run Commodity Prices, Economic Growth, and Interest Rates: 17th Century to the Present Day," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 57-70.
    25. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
    26. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
    27. Byrne, Joseph P & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2010. "Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-102, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    28. Tilton, John E., 2013. "The terms of trade debate and the policy implications for primary product producers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 196-203.
    29. Fernandez, Viviana, 2019. "A readily computable commodity price index: 1900–2016," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    30. Spinola, Danilo, 2020. "Uneven development and the balance of payments constrained model: Terms of trade, economic cycles, and productivity catching-up," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 220-232.
    31. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2014. "Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169726, Agricultural Economics Society.
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    91. Sabna Ali & Syed Mansoob Murshed & Elissaios Papyrakis, 2023. "Oil, export diversification and economic growth in Sudan: evidence from a VAR model," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(1), pages 77-96, January.
    92. Jean-François Carpantier, 2020. "Anything but gold. The golden constant revisited," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020036, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    93. Fernandez, Viviana, 2014. "Linear and non-linear causality between price indices and commodity prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 40-51.
    94. David Harvey & Neil Kellard & Jakob Madsen & Mark Wohar, 2012. "Trends and Cycles in Real Commodity Prices: 1650-2010," CEH Discussion Papers 010, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    95. Georg V. Lehecka, 2014. "Have food and financial markets integrated?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2087-2095, June.
    96. József Popp & Judit Oláh & Mária Farkas Fekete & Zoltán Lakner & Domicián Máté, 2018. "The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
    97. Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 2012. "The Malthusian Paradox: Declining Food Prices in the Very Long Run," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124240, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
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  38. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Rejoinder," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 658-667, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Stephan Smeekes & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010. "Bootstrap union tests for unit roots in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Discussion Papers 10/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

  39. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Unit Root Testing In Practice: Dealing With Uncertainty Over The Trend And Initial Condition," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 587-636, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Simple, Robust, And Powerful Tests Of The Breaking Trend Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 995-1029, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  41. Harris, David & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Testing For A Unit Root In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1545-1588, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  42. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Seasonal unit root tests and the role of initial conditions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 409-442, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  43. Harvey David I & Leybourne Stephen J & Xiao Bin, 2008. "A Powerful Test for Linearity When the Order of Integration is Unknown," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-24, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  44. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "A simple, robust and powerful test of the trend hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1302-1330, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  45. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2007. "Testing for time series linearity," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(1), pages 149-165, March.

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    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong (ed.), 2012. "The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262018234, December.
    2. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-28, April.
    3. Ana Romão & Ricardo Barradas, 2024. "Macroeconomic determinants of households' indebtedness in Portugal: What really matters in the era of financialisation?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 383-401, January.
    4. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Regis, Paulo José, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: Nonlinear unit root tests revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 343-346.
    5. E Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "Real Exchange Rates and Time-Varying Trade Costs," Working Papers 600537, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    6. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Bin Xiao, 2007. "A powerful test for linearity when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 07/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    7. Pierluigi Daddi & Giorgio d’Agostino & Luca Pieroni, 2018. "Does military spending stimulate growth? An empirical investigation in Italy," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 440-458, June.
    8. Jinzhao Chen, 2012. "Crisis, Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity: Evidence from China in Transformation," Working Papers halshs-00660654, HAL.
    9. Ghoshray, A., 2018. "The Dynamic Properties of Natural Resource Prices," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277210, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Juan Cuestas & Dean Garratt, 2011. "Is real GDP per capita a stationary process? Smooth transitions, nonlinear trends and unit root testing," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 555-563, December.
    11. Bent Jesper Christensen & Robinson Kruse & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2013. "A unified framework for testing in the linear regression model under unknown order of fractional integration," CREATES Research Papers 2013-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Microstructure order flow: statistical and economic evaluation of nonlinear forecasts," Working Papers 2010_30, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    13. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald Macdonald, 2010. "Three-Regime Asymmetric STAR Modeling and Exchange Rate Reversion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1447-1467, October.
    14. Giorgio d'Agostino & Luca Pieroni & J Paul Dunne, 2009. "Optimal Military Spending in the US: A Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 0903, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    15. Yoon, Gawon, 2009. "It's all the miners' fault: On the nonlinearity in U.S. unemployment rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1449-1454, November.
    16. Bob Nobay & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics in the U.S.: Global but Not Local Mean Reversion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 135-150, February.
    17. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Heshmati, Almas & Azam, Muhammad, 2015. "Are Unemployment Rates in OECD Countries Stationary? Evidence from Univariate and Panel Unit Root Tests," IZA Discussion Papers 9571, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin & Jaouad Madkour, 2013. "Testing Interval Forecasts: a GMM-Based Approach," Post-Print hal-01385898, HAL.
    19. David O. Cushman & Glauco De Vita & Emmanouil Trachanas, 2023. "Is the Fisher effect asymmetric? Cointegration analysis and expectations measurement," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3727-3748, October.
    20. Greenidge, Kevin & Drakes, Lisa & Craigwell, Roland, 2011. "A Note on Causality between Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings using Panel Tests," MPRA Paper 40931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "On the performance of a nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity in the presence of linearity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1389-1396.
    22. Aslan, Alper, 2011. "Does natural gas consumption follow a nonlinear path over time? Evidence from 50 US States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4466-4469.
    23. Wahab, Bashir A. & Adewuyi, Adeolu O., 2021. "Analysis of major properties of metal prices using new methods: Structural breaks, non-linearity, stationarity and bubbles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    24. Dilem Yildirim & Ralf Becker & Denise R Osborn, 2009. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests for Nonlinear Threshold Models," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0915, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    25. Kaufmann, Hendrik & Kruse, Robinson & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2012. "On tests for linearity against STAR models with deterministic trends," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-492, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    26. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2016. "‘Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India’ — A failed replication (negative Type 1 and Type 2)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 150-160.
    27. Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU & Christophe HURLIN & Jaouad MADKOUR, 2011. "Testing Interval Forecasts: A New GMM-based Test," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1549, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    28. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Nonlinearity in real exchange rates: an approach with disaggregated data and a new linearity test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1125-1132.
    29. Roland Craigwell & Allan Wright, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and corruption in developing economies: Evidence from linear and non-linear panel Granger causality tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2272-2283.
    30. Mikko Myrskylä & Joshua Goldstein, 2013. "Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 237-260, February.
    31. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zaman, Khair Uz, 2014. "Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 183-195.
    32. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2009. "3-Regime symmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-07, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    33. Saša Obradoviæ & Lela Ristiæ & Nemanja Lojanica, 2018. "Are unemployment rates stationary for SEE10 countries? Evidence from linear and nonlinear dynamics," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 559-583.
    34. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    35. Lingxiang Zhang, 2020. "Linearity tests and stochastic trend under the STAR framework," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2271-2282, December.
    36. Erdas Mehmet Levent, 2019. "Validity of Weak-Form Market Efficiency in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs): Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 399-428, December.
    37. Ayca Doganer, 2022. "Determining Unemployment Hysteresis in European Countries Using Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests: The 1991-2020 Period," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 753-785, December.
    38. E Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "Forecasting the Real Exchange Rate using a Long Span of Data. A Rematch: Linear vs Nonlinear," Working Papers 601190, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    39. Selahattin GÜRİŞ & Burak GÜRİŞ & Muhammed TIRAŞOĞLU, 2017. "Do military expenditures converge in NATO countries? Linear and nonlinear unit root test evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 237-248, Summer.
    40. Yusuf TUNA & Ayca DOGANER & Guldenur CETIN, 2022. "Determining the Relationships Between Domestic Credits, Economic Growth and Inflation in Turkiye by Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 16(2), pages 173-187.

  46. Harvey David I & Leybourne Stephen J & Taylor A.M. Robert, 2006. "On Robust Trend Function Hypothesis Testing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  47. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2006. "Power of a Unit‐Root Test and the Initial Condition," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 739-752, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Westerlund, Joakim, 2014. "Pooled panel unit root tests and the effect of past initialization," Working Papers fe_2014_06, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    2. Sven Otto, 2020. "Unit Root Testing with Slowly Varying Trends," Papers 2003.04066, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    3. Kerry Patterson & Michael A. Thornton, 2013. "A review of econometric concepts and methods for empirical macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 2, pages 4-42, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Hugo Ferrer-Pérez & María-Isabel Ayuda & Antonio Aznar, 2019. "Improving the Performance of a Long-Run Variance Ratio Test for a Unit Root," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 258-274, June.
    5. Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Tzavalis, Elias & Vrontos, Ioannis, 2017. "On Bayesian analysis and unit root testing for autoregressive models in the presence of multiple structural breaks," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 70-90.
    6. Anton Skrobotov, 2016. "On Trend Breaks and Initial Condition in Unit Root Testing," Working Papers 0097, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
    7. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Suvankulov, Farrukh & Su, Yongyang & Chau, Frankie, 2012. "Some cautions on the use of nonlinear panel unit root tests: Evidence from a modified series-specific non-linear panel unit-root test," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 810-816.
    8. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    9. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    10. Anton Skrobotov, 2013. "Double Unit Roots Testing, GLS-detrending and Uncertainty over the Initial Conditions," Working Papers 0083, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.

  48. Harvey, David I. & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Sample size, lag order and critical values of seasonal unit root tests," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2734-2751, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Sephton, 2008. "Critical values of the augmented fractional Dickey–Fuller test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 437-450, November.
    2. Diaz-Emparanza, Ignacio, 2014. "Numerical distribution functions for seasonal unit root tests," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 237-247.
    3. Sebastian Kripfganz & Daniel C. Schneider, 2019. "Response surface regressions for critical value bounds and approximate p-values in equilibrium correction models," Discussion Papers 1901, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    4. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817707.
    5. Pui Sun Tam, 2013. "Finite-sample distribution of the augmented Dickey--Fuller test with lag optimization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3495-3511, August.
    6. Gabriel Pons, 2006. "Testing Monthly Seasonal Unit Roots With Monthly and Quarterly Information," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 191-209, March.
    7. Tomás del Barrio Castro & Andrii Bodnar & Andreu Sansó Rosselló, 2015. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Seasonal Unit Root Tests with OLS and GLS Detrending," DEA Working Papers 73, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    8. Nazlioglu, Saban & Lee, Junsoo, 2020. "Response surface estimates of the LM unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    9. Díaz-Emparanza, Ignacio & Moral, M. Paz, 2014. "Numerical distribution functions for seasonal stability tests," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 44-49.
    10. Jesús Otero & Jeremy Smith, 2012. "Response surface models for the Leybourne unit root tests and lag order dependence," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 473-486, September.
    11. Jesús Otero & Jeremy Smith, 2013. "Response Surface Estimates of the Cross-Sectionally Augmented IPS Tests for Panel Unit Roots," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 1-9, January.
    12. Díaz-Emparanza Herrero, Ignacio & Moral Zuazo, María Paz, 2013. "Seasonal Stability Tests in gretl. An Application to International Tourism Data," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).

  49. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  50. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2005. "On testing for unit roots and the initial observation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(1), pages 97-111, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Sven Otto, 2020. "Unit Root Testing with Slowly Varying Trends," Papers 2003.04066, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    2. Kerry Patterson & Michael A. Thornton, 2013. "A review of econometric concepts and methods for empirical macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 2, pages 4-42, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. David Harris & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Nikoloas D. Sakkas, 2008. "Local asymptotic power of the Im-Pesaran-Shin panel unit root test and the impact of initial observations," Discussion Papers 08/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    4. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2013. "Recursive adjustment, unit root tests and structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 62-82, January.
    5. Sven Otto, 2021. "Unit root testing with slowly varying trends," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 85-106, January.
    6. Karavias, Yiannis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2013. "The Power Performance of Fixed-T Panel Unit Root Tests allowing for Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 46012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ahlgren, Niklas & Juselius, Mikael, 2009. "Tests for Cointegration Rank and the Initial Condition," Working Papers 539, Hanken School of Economics.
    8. Anton Skrobotov, 2016. "On Trend Breaks and Initial Condition in Unit Root Testing," Working Papers 0097, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
    9. Yiannis Karavias & Elias Tzavalis, 2017. "Local power of panel unit root tests allowing for structural breaks," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1123-1156, November.
    10. Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2006. "Minimizing the impact of the initial condition on testing for unit roots," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 285-310.
    11. Yaya, OlaOluwa Simon & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Carcel, Hector, 2015. "Testing fractional persistence and non-linearities in the natural gas market: An application of non-linear deterministic terms based on Chebyshev polynomials in time," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 240-245.
    12. Shelef, Amit, 2016. "A Gini-based unit root test," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 763-772.
    13. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Nikolaos D. Sakkas, 2008. "Panel root tests and the impact of initial observations," Discussion Papers 06/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    14. David I. Harvey, & Stephen J. Leybourne, & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for a unit root when uncertain about the trend [Revised to become 07/03 above]," Discussion Papers 06/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    15. Aristidou Chrystalleni & Harvey David I. & Leybourne Stephen J., 2017. "The Impact of the Initial Condition on Covariate Augmented Unit Root Tests," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, January.
    16. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "The impact of the initial condition on robust tests for a linear trend," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    17. Meng, Ming & Lee, Hyejin & Cho, Myeong Hyeon & Lee, Junsoo, 2013. "Impacts of the initial observation on unit root tests using recursive demeaning and detrending procedures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 195-199.
    18. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Unit root testing in practice: dealing with uncertainty over the trend and initial condition," Discussion Papers 07/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    19. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    20. Kajal Lahiri & Zhongwen Liang & Huaming Peng, 2017. "The Local Power of the IPS Test with Both Initial Conditions and Incidental Trends," CESifo Working Paper Series 6313, CESifo.
    21. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    22. Anton Skrobotov, 2013. "Double Unit Roots Testing, GLS-detrending and Uncertainty over the Initial Conditions," Working Papers 0083, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.

  51. David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2005. "Evidence for common features in G7 macroeconomic time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 165-175.

    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Zhichao & Feng, Yuanhua, 2013. "Modeling of the impact of the financial crisis and China's accession to WTO on China's exports to Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 474-483.
    2. Chen, Xiaoshan & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "Evaluating growth cycle synchronisation in the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 342-351, March.
    3. Zhichao Guo & Yuanhua Feng & Xiangyong Tan, 2010. "Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products," Working Papers CIE 32, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    4. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
    5. Zhichao Guo & Yuanhua Feng & Xiangyong Tan, 2011. "Impact of China's accession to WTO and the financial crisis on China's exports to Germany," Working Papers CIE 36, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    6. David Griffiths, 2007. "Forecasting income shares: are mean-reversion assumptions appropriate?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(21), pages 2699-2711.
    7. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    8. Fernandez, Viviana, 2006. "Does domestic cooperation lead to business-cycle convergence and financial linkages?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 369-396, July.
    9. Zhichao Guo & Yuanhua Feng & Thomas Gries, 2015. "Changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 262-279, May.

  52. David I. Harvey & Paul Newbold, 2005. "Forecast Encompassing and Parameter Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 815-835, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2016. "Does the Federal Reserve have Private Information about its Future Actions?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 498-517, July.
    2. Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2010. "To Combine Forecasts or to Combine Information?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 534-570.
    3. Chrystalleni Aristidou & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US," Discussion Papers 2015/13, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    4. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Mise, Emi & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 81-102.
    5. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin, 2010. "Investing under model uncertainty: Decision based evaluation of exchange rate forecasts in the US, UK and Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 403-422, April.
    6. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Barrow, Devon & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2019. "Another look at forecast selection and combination: Evidence from forecast pooling," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 226-235.
    7. Vasyl Golosnoy & Yarema Okhrin, 2015. "Using information quality for volatility model combinations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 1055-1073, June.

  53. David I. Harvey & Terence C. Mills, 2004. "Tests for Stationarity in Series with Endogenously Determined Structural Change," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 863-894, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    2. Landajo, Manuel & Presno, María José, 2010. "Nonparametric pseudo-Lagrange multiplier stationarity testing," MPRA Paper 25659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Costantini, Mauro & Sen, Amit, 2016. "A simple testing procedure for unit root and model specification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 37-54.
    4. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2010. "Stationarity testing under nonlinear models. Some asymptotic results," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 392-405, September.
    5. Alper Kara & Dilem Yıldırım & Gül İpek Tunç, 2021. "Market Efficiency In Non-Renewable Resource Markets: Evidence From Stationarity Tests With Structural Changes," ERC Working Papers 2103, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
    6. Chun‐Yu Ho & Dan Li, 2008. "Rising regional inequality in China: Policy regimes and structural changes," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 245-259, June.
    7. D., Ivan, 2017. "Stability of the labour shares: evidence from OECD economies," MPRA Paper 79822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Noriega Antonio E. & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2011. "Stationarity, structural breaks, and economic growth in Mexico: 1895-2008," Working Papers 2011-11, Banco de México.
    9. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    10. Ivan D. Trofimov, 2019. "Stability of Labour Shares: Evidence from OECD Economies," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89.
    11. Peter Sephton, 2017. "Finite Sample Critical Values of the Generalized KPSS Stationarity Test," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(1), pages 161-172, June.
    12. María Presno & Manuel Landajo, 2010. "Computation of limiting distributions in stationarity testing with a generic trend," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 165-183, March.
    13. Alper Kara & Dilem Yildirim & G. Ipek Tunc, 2023. "Market efficiency in non-renewable resource markets: evidence from stationarity tests with structural changes," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 279-290, June.

  54. Harvey, David I. & Newbold, Paul, 2003. "The non-normality of some macroeconomic forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-653.

    Cited by:

    1. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Mwamba, Muteba, 2015. "A multivariate model for the prediction of stock returns in an emerging market: A comparison of parametric and non-parametric models," MPRA Paper 62028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tara M. Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2332-2342.
    3. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2009. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," Discussion Papers 09-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    4. Kontogeorgos, Georgios & Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2019. "An analysis of the Eurosystem/ECB projections," Working Paper Series 2291, European Central Bank.
    5. Timur Hulagu & Saygin Sahinoz, 2011. "Enflasyon Belirsizligi ve Beklentilerdeki Uyusmazlik," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1104, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2001. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for power-transformed time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws010503, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Marián Vávra, 2020. "Assessing distributional properties of forecast errors for fan-chart modelling," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2841-2858, December.
    8. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2013. "Banks, Asset Management or Consultancies' Inflation Forecasts: is there a better forecaster out there?," Working Papers Series 310, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Timur Hulagu & Saygin Sahinoz, 2012. "Is Disagreement a Good Proxy for Inflation Uncertainty? Evidence from Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(1), pages 53-62.
    10. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2009. "How reliable are forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for countries with limited coverage?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 376-388, December.
    11. João Henrique Gonçalves Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2018. "Uncertainty And Density Forecasts Of Arma Models: Comparison Of Asymptotic, Bayesian, And Bootstrap Procedures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 388-419, April.
    12. BRATU SIMIONESCU, Mihaela, 2012. "Two Quantitative Forecasting Methods For Macroeconomic Indicators In Czech Republic," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 3(1), pages 71-87.
    13. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2007. "Accuracy of GDP growth forecasts for transition countries: Ten years of forecasting assessed," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 29-45.
    14. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2015. "Bootstrap multi-step forecasts of non-Gaussian VAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 834-848.
    15. Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. Víctor López-Pérez, 2017. "Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 147-174, February.

  55. Terence C. Mills & David I. Harvey, 2003. "Modelling trends in central England temperatures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 35-47.

    Cited by:

    1. Jewson Stephen & Penzer Jeremy, 2006. "Estimating Trends in Weather Series: Consequences for Pricing Derivatives," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Terence C. Mills, 2012. "Semi-parametric modelling of temperature records," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 361-383, May.
    3. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2020. "Trends in distributional characteristics: Existence of global warming," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 153-174.
    4. Tommaso Proietti & Eric Hillebrand, 2017. "Seasonal changes in central England temperatures," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(3), pages 769-791, June.
    5. He, Changli & Kang, Jian & Teräsvirta, Timo & Zhang, Shuhua, 2019. "The shifting seasonal mean autoregressive model and seasonality in the Central England monthly temperature series, 1772–2016," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 1-24.
    6. Changli He & Jian Kang & Timo Teräsvirta & Shuhua Zhang, 2019. "Long monthly temperature series and the Vector Seasonal Shifting Mean and Covariance Autoregressive model," CREATES Research Papers 2019-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

  56. David I. Harvey & Terence C. Mills, 2003. "A Note On Busetti–Harvey Tests For Stationarity In Series With Structural Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 159-164, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Anton Skrobotov, 2013. "Local Structural Trend Break in Stationarity Testing," Working Papers 0074, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    2. Su, Chi-Wei & Tsangyao, Chang & Chang, Hsu-Ling, 2011. "Purchasing power parity for fifteen Latin American countries: Stationary test with a Fourier function," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 839-845, October.
    3. Anton Skrobotov, 2012. "Bias Correction of KPSS Test with Structural Break for Reducing of Size Distortion - in Russian," Working Papers 0044, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2012.
    4. Skrobotov Anton, 2013. "Bias Correction of KPSS Test with Structural Break for Reducing of Size Distortion," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 33-61, December.
    5. Jerome Geyer‐Klingeberg & Andreas W. Rathgeber, 2021. "Determinants of the WTI‐Brent price spread revisited," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 736-757, May.
    6. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.

  57. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "How great are the great ratios?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 163-177.

    Cited by:

    1. Ivan D. Trofimov, 2017. "Capital Productivity In Industrialised Economies: Evidence From Error-Correction Model And Lagrange Multiplier Tests," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(215), pages 53-80, October –.
    2. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    3. Claude Lopez & Javier Reyes, 2005. "Real Interest Rate Stationarity and Per Capita Consumption Growth Rate," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2005-02, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2007.
    4. Camarero, Mariam & Picazo-Tadeo, Andrés J. & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2008. "Is the environmental performance of industrialized countries converging? A 'SURE' approach to testing for convergence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 653-661, July.
    5. Arjun & Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2024. "Testing the Balanced Growth Hypothesis in the Presence of Structural Breaks: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(1), pages 1-35.
    6. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Petrova, Katerina & Price, Simon, 2019. "Time-varying cointegration and the UK great ratios," Bank of England working papers 789, Bank of England.
    7. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
    8. Luca Zamparelli, 2011. "Induced Innovation, Endogenous Growth, and Income Distribution: a Model along Classical Lines," Working Papers CELEG 1102, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    9. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2017. "Capital productivity in industrialized economies: evidence from error-correction model and Lagrange Multiplier tests," MPRA Paper 81655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Holmes, Mark J. & Shen, Xin, 2013. "A note on the average propensity to consume, wealth and threshold adjustment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 309-313.
    11. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Great Ratios, Balanced Growth and Stochastic Trends: Evidence for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_20, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    12. Don Harding, 2020. "Econometric Foundations of the Great Ratios of Economics," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-300, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    13. Hong Li & Vince Daly, 2009. "Testing the balanced growth hypothesis: evidence from China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 185-200, September.
    14. Ekaterina Ponomareva & Alexandra Bozhechkova & Alexandr Knobel, 2012. "Factors of Economic Growth," Published Papers 172, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    15. Menyah, Kojo & Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2010. "Energy consumption, pollutant emissions and economic growth in South Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1374-1382, November.
    16. Herzer, Dierk & Kemper, Niels & Zamparelli, Luca, 2009. "Balanced growth and structural breaks: Evidence for Germany," MPRA Paper 14944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Chang, Juin-Jen & Lin, Chang-Ching & Lin, Hsieh-Yu, 2016. "Great ratios and international openness," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 110-121.
    18. Diego Romero-Avila, 2008. "A confirmatory analysis of the unit root hypothesis for OECD consumption-income ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2271-2278.
    19. Mark J. HOLMES & Xin SHEN, 2015. "On Wealth Volatility, Asymmetries And The Average Propensity To Consume In The United States," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 69-78.
    20. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Petrova, Katerina & Price, Simon, 2020. "Time-varying cointegration with an application to the UK Great Ratios," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    21. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Are OECD consumption-income ratios stationary after all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 107-117, January.

  58. David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2002. "Unit roots and double smooth transitions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 675-683.

    Cited by:

    1. Hepsag, Aycan, 2017. "New unit root tests with two smooth breaks and nonlinear adjustment," MPRA Paper 83353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Saumitra N. Bhaduri & Ashwin Andrew Samuel, 2009. "International Equity Market Integration," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(1), pages 45-66, April.
    3. Changli He & Rickard Sandberg, 2006. "Dickey–Fuller Type of Tests against Nonlinear Dynamic Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 835-861, December.
    4. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2019. "Asymmetric adjustment, non-linearity and housing price bubbles: New international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Dukpa Kim & Tatsushi Oka & Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Inference Related to Common Breaks in a Multivariate System with Joined Segmented Trends with Applications to Global and Hemispheric Temperatures," Papers 1805.09937, arXiv.org.
    6. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
    7. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis, 2014. "Smooth transition trends and labor force participation rates in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 629-652, March.
    8. Sandberg, Rickard, 2016. "Trends, unit roots, structural changes, and time-varying asymmetries in U.S. macroeconomic data: the Stock and Watson data re-examined," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 699-713.
    9. He, Changli & Sandberg, Rickard, 2005. "Testing for Unit Roots in Nonlinear Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 582, Stockholm School of Economics.
    10. Terence C. Mills, 2012. "Semi-parametric modelling of temperature records," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 361-383, May.
    11. Terence Mills & Kerry Patterson, 2013. "Carmichael's Arctan Trend: Precursor of Smooth Transition Functions," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2013-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    12. Robert Sollis, 2004. "Evidence on purchasing power parity from univariate models: the case of smooth transition trend-stationarity," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    13. Terence C. Mills, 2007. "Time series modelling of two millennia of northern hemisphere temperatures: long memory or shifting trends?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(1), pages 83-94, January.
    14. He, Changli & Sandberg, Rickard, 2005. "Dickey-Fuller Type of Tests against Nonlinear Dynamic Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 580, Stockholm School of Economics.
    15. Rickard Sandberg, 2018. "Unit Root Testing in Multiple Smooth Break Models with Nonlinear Dynamics," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 942-952, November.
    16. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    17. Matthew T. Holt & Timo Teräsvirta, 2017. "Global Hemispheric Temperatures and Co–Shifting: A Vector Shifting–Mean Autoregressive Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2017-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Robert Sollis, 2005. "Evidence on purchasing power parity from univariate models: the case of smooth transition trend‐stationarity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 79-98, January.
    19. Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, "undated". "Detection and attribution of climate change through econometric methods," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-015, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    20. Noriega Antonio E. & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2011. "Stationarity, structural breaks, and economic growth in Mexico: 1895-2008," Working Papers 2011-11, Banco de México.
    21. Li, Yushu & Shukur, Ghazi, 2009. "Testing for Unit Root against LSTAR Model: Wavelet Improvement under GARCH Distortion," CAFO Working Papers 2009:6, Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics.
    22. Richard S. J. Tol & Francisco Estrada & Carlos Gay-García, 2012. "The persistence of shocks in GDP and the estimation of the potential economic costs of climate change," Working Paper Series 4312, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    23. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsieh, Chun-Kuei, 2021. "Facing up to the polysemy of purchasing power parity: New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 247-265.
    24. Terence C. Mills & David I. Harvey, 2003. "Modelling trends in central England temperatures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 35-47.

  59. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Seasonal unit root tests with seasonal mean shifts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 295-302, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Herwartz, Helmut & Maxand, Simone & Walle, Yabibal M., 2017. "Heteroskedasticity-robust unit root testing for trending panels," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 314, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Sven Otto, 2020. "Unit Root Testing with Slowly Varying Trends," Papers 2003.04066, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    3. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2017. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," ESRB Working Paper Series 45, European Systemic Risk Board.
    4. Helmut Herwartz & Yabibal M. Walle, 2018. "A powerful wild bootstrap diagnosis of panel unit roots under linear trends and time-varying volatility," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 379-411, March.
    5. D. Ventosa-Santaul a & M. G -Zald & F. H. Wallace, 2015. "The real exchange rate, regime changes and volatility shifts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(24), pages 2445-2454, May.
    6. Luis C. Nunes & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2011. "On LM‐type tests for seasonal unit roots in the presence of a break in trend," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 108-134, March.
    7. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Signaling asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2012, Bank of Finland.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Popp, Stephan, 2011. "An application of a new seasonal unit root test to inflation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 707-716, October.
    9. Hao Jin & Si Zhang & Jinsuo Zhang, 2017. "Spurious regression due to neglected of non-stationary volatility," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 1065-1081, September.
    10. Soo-Bin Jeong & Bong-Hwan Kim & Tae-Hwan Kim & Hyung-Ho Moon, 2017. "Unit Root Tests In The Presence Of Multiple Breaks In Variance," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 345-361, June.
    11. B. da Silva Lopes, Artur C., 2005. "Finite sample effects of pure seasonal mean shifts on Dickey-Fuller tests," MPRA Paper 125, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2006.
    12. Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew & Zhu, Linxu, 2018. "Not all cities are alike: House price heterogeneity and the design of macro-prudential policies in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Popp, Stephan, 2007. "Modified seasonal unit root test with seasonal level shifts at unknown time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 111-117, November.
    14. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2012. "Unit roots, nonlinearities and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2012-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    15. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2016. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2016, Bank of Finland.
    16. Artur C. B. Da Silva Lopes, 2008. "Finite Sample Effects Of Pure Seasonal Mean Shifts On Dickey–Fuller Tests: A Simulation Study," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 528-538, September.
    17. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    18. Westerlund, Joakim & Costantini, Mauro & Narayan, Paresh & Popp, Stephan, 2009. "Seasonal Unit Root Tests for Trending and Breaking Series with Application to Industrial Production," Working Papers in Economics 377, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    19. Tomás Barrio & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Testing for Periodic Integration with a Changing Mean," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 45-75, June.
    20. Shaen Corbet & John W. Goodell & Samet Gunay & Kerem Kaskaloglu, 2023. "Are DeFi tokens a separate asset class from conventional cryptocurrencies?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(2), pages 609-630, March.
    21. Joo-Yeon Hyun & Hyeong Ho Mun & Tae-Hwan Kim & Jinook Jeong, 2010. "The effect of a variance shift on the Breusch-Godfrey's LM test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 399-404.
    22. Mendez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Seasonal Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in agricultural time series: Monthly exports and domestic supply in Argentina," MPRA Paper 63831, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2015.

  60. Harvey, David I. & Mills, Terence C., 2002. "Common features in UK sectoral output," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 91-104, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2013. "Common trends and common cycles in stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 472-476.
    2. Harvey, David I. & Mills, Terence C., 2005. "Corrigendum to ''Common features in UK sectoral output'': [Economic Modelling 19 (2002) 91-104]," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 207-211, January.
    3. Mills, Terence C. & Crafts, Nicholas F. R., 2004. "Sectoral output trends and cycles in Victorian Britain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 217-232, March.
    4. Christoph Schleicher & Francisco Barillas, 2005. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 214, Society for Computational Economics.

  61. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2001. "Innovational Outlier Unit Root Tests With an Endogenously Determined Break in Level," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 559-575, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Post-Print hal-00956937, HAL.
    2. Popp, Stephan, 2007. "Identification of the true break date in innovational outlier unit root tests," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 152, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).
    3. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
    4. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    5. Kojo Menyah & Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2012. "Wagner'S Law Revisited: A Note From South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(2), pages 200-208, June.
    6. Popp, Stephan, 2007. "Modified seasonal unit root test with seasonal level shifts at unknown time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 111-117, November.
    7. Michael Princ, 2016. "Structural Distress Index: Structural Break Analysis of the Czech and Polish Stock Markets," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 125-137.
    8. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
    9. Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & María Dolores Gadea, 2023. "Testing for multiple level shifts with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 801-819, September.
    10. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Seasonal unit root tests with seasonal mean shifts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 295-302, July.
    11. Seong Yeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2017. "Fractional Unit Root Tests Allowing for a Structural Change in Trend under Both the Null and Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, January.
    12. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    13. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses 0115, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    14. David I. Harvey & Terence C. Mills, 2004. "Tests for Stationarity in Series with Endogenously Determined Structural Change," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 863-894, December.
    15. Mendez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Seasonal Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in agricultural time series: Monthly exports and domestic supply in Argentina," MPRA Paper 63831, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2015.
    16. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
    17. Luis C. Nunes, 2004. "LM-Type tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in Trend," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 190, Econometric Society.

  62. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2001. "Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Günnel & Karl-Heinz Tödter, 2009. "Does Benford’s Law hold in economic research and forecasting?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 273-292, August.
    2. Isiklar, Gultekin, 2005. "On aggregation bias in fixed-event forecast efficiency tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 312-316, December.
    3. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," KOF Working papers 08-190, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    4. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 25-36.
    5. Xiao, Jinzhi & Lence, Sergio H. & Hart, Chad, 2014. "Usda And Private Analysts' Forecasts Of Ending Stocks: How Good Are They?," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170642, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. López Moctezuma Gabriel & Capistrán Carlos, 2010. "Forecast Revisions of Mexican Inflation and GDP Growth," Working Papers 2010-11, Banco de México.
    7. Bruno Deschamps & Christos Ioannidis, 2014. "The Efficiency of Multivariate Macroeconomic Forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(5), pages 509-523, September.
    8. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725.
    9. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2006. "How Far Ahead Can We Forecast? Evidence From Cross-country Surveys," Discussion Papers 06-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    10. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2009. "Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200906, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    11. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
    12. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2010. "Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners," Discussion Papers 10-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    13. Chen, Qiwei & Costantini, Mauro & Deschamps, Bruno, 2016. "How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 154-167.
    14. Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
    15. Ager, P. & Kappler, M. & Osterloh, S., 2009. "The accuracy and efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A further application and extension of the pooled approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 167-181.
    16. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2006. "An analysis of a panel of Spanish GDP forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1287-1292.
    17. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2004. "Behavioural biases among interest rate forecasters?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 319-321.
    18. Harvey, David I. & Newbold, Paul, 2003. "The non-normality of some macroeconomic forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-653.
    19. Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465, April.
    20. Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Does The Market Anticipate Smoothing In Usda Crop Production Forecasts?," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20145, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    21. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos, 2013. "Can rational stubbornness explain forecast biases?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 141-151.
    22. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.

  63. David Harvey & Paul Newbold, 2000. "Tests for multiple forecast encompassing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 471-482.

    Cited by:

    1. Bentes, Sonia R. & Menezes, Rui, 2013. "On the predictability of realized volatility using feasible GLS," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 58-66.
    2. Daniel Andrés Jaimes Cárdenas & jair Ojeda Joya, 2010. "Reglas de Taylor y previsibilidad fuera de muestra de la tasa de cambio en Latinoamérica," Borradores de Economia 7308, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Predictive Ability of Competing Models for South Africa’s Fixed Business Non- Residential Investment Spending," Working Papers 201229, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
    5. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2007. "Does implied volatility provide any information beyond that captured in model-based volatility forecasts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2535-2549, August.
    6. Costantini, Mauro & Pappalardo, Carmine, 2010. "A hierarchical procedure for the combination of forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 725-743, October.
    7. Dimitriadis, Timo & Schnaitmann, Julie, 2021. "Forecast encompassing tests for the expected shortfall," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 604-621.
    8. Costantini, Mauro & Gunter, Ulrich & Kunst, Robert M., 2014. "Forecast combinations in a DSGE-VAR lab," Economics Series 309, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    9. Manfredo, Mark R. & Richards, Timothy J., 2005. "Hedging Yield with Weather Derivatives: A Role for Options," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19369, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Forecast combination, non-linear dynamics, and the macroeconomy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(3), pages 653-686, March.
    11. Roccazzella, Francesco & Candelon, Bertrand, 2022. "Should we care about ECB inflation expectations?," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    12. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2006. "On the informational efficiency of S&P500 implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 139-153, August.
    13. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2016. "Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-212.
    14. Siliverstovs, B. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    15. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Whitehouse, Emily J., 2017. "Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 833-847.
    16. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    17. Antonis Michis, 2012. "Monitoring Forecasting Combinations with Semiparametric Regression Models," Working Papers 2012-2, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    18. Dimitriadis, Timo & Liu, Xiaochun & Schnaitmann, Julie, 2020. "Encompassing tests for value at risk and expected shortfall multi-step forecasts based on inference on the boundary," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    19. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "Prequential forecasting in the presence of structure breaks in natural gas spot markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2363-2384, November.
    20. David Bessler & Zijun Wang, 2012. "D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 295-314, August.
    21. Sasa Zikovic & Randall Filer, 2012. "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 3980, CESifo.
    22. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2004. "Comparing Hedging Effectiveness: An Application of the Encompassing Principle," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-14, April.
    23. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223, April.
    24. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2003. "Minimum Variance Hedging And The Encompassing Principle: Assessing The Effectiveness Of Futures Hedges," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22247, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    25. Khalaf, Lynda & Saunders, Charles J., 2017. "Monte Carlo forecast evaluation with persistent data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-10.
    26. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2008. "Model selection for forecast combination," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    27. Anthony H. Tu & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen, 2016. "What Derives the Bond Portfolio Value-at-Risk: Information Roles of Macroeconomic and Financial Stress Factors," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    28. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2004. "Predicting Pork Supplies: An Application of Multiple Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 605-615, December.
    29. Håvard Hungnes, 2018. "Encompassing tests for evaluating multi-step system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 871, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    30. Bessler, David & Kibriya, Shahriar & Chen, Junyi & Price, Ed, 2014. "On Forecasting Conflict in Sudan: 2009-2012," MPRA Paper 60069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Christian Gourieroux & Wei Liu, 2009. "Control and Out‐of‐Sample Validation of Dependent Risks," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 683-707, September.
    32. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
    33. José Dias Curto & João Tomaz & José Castro Pinto, 2009. "A new approach to bad news effects on volatility: the multiple-sign-volume sensitive regime EGARCH model (MSV-EGARCH)," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 8(1), pages 23-36, April.
    34. Zijun Wang, 2010. "Directed graphs, information structure and forecast combinations: an empirical examination of US unemployment rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 353-366.
    35. Charles S. Bos & Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms, 2001. "Inflation, Forecast Intervals and Long Memory Regression Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-029/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    36. Şener, Emrah & Baronyan, Sayad & Ali Mengütürk, Levent, 2012. "Ranking the predictive performances of value-at-risk estimation methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 849-873.
    37. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2002. "Usda Production Forecasts For Pork, Beef, And Broilers: An Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-14, July.
    38. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    39. Harvey, David I. & Newbold, Paul, 2003. "The non-normality of some macroeconomic forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-653.
    40. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Boris, Keith, 2009. "Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-196.
    41. Glynn Tonsor & Ted Schroeder, 2011. "Multivariate forecasting of a commodity portfolio: application to cattle feeding margins and risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(11), pages 1329-1339.
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    1. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Staff Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
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    3. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
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    35. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 529, European Central Bank.
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    38. Mehmet Balcilar & Nico Katzke & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Precious Metal Prices Help in Forecasting South African Inflation?," Working Papers 03/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    39. Zhou, Huimin & Dang, Yaoguo & Yang, Yingjie & Wang, Junjie & Yang, Shaowen, 2023. "An optimized nonlinear time-varying grey Bernoulli model and its application in forecasting the stock and sales of electric vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
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    41. Klaus Abberger, 2006. "Qualitative Business Surveys in Manufacturing and Industrial Production - What can be Learned from Industry Branch Results?," ifo Working Paper Series 31, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    42. Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
    43. Daniel Aaronson & Scott A. Brave & Michael Fogarty & Ezra Karger & Spencer D. Krane, 2021. "Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade," Working Paper Series WP-2021-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 18 Jun 2021.
    44. Imene Mootamri & Mohamed Boutahar & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2008. "A fractionally integrated exponential STAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Post-Print halshs-00390134, HAL.
    45. Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Predictive Ability of Competing Models for South Africa’s Fixed Business Non- Residential Investment Spending," Working Papers 201229, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    46. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Mehmet Balcilar, 2014. "Forecasting US Real Private Residential Fixed Investment Using a Large Number of Predictors," Working papers 2014-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    47. Racine Ly & Fousseini Traore & Khadim Dia, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks," Papers 2101.03087, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    48. Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Research Papers in Economics 2020-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    49. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2016. "Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 157-171, January.
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    51. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & McNamara, Dylan C., 2014. "Where is the Fed in the distribution of forecasters?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 296-312.
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    794. Shao, Renyuan & Roe, Brian E., 2002. "The Design And Pricing Of Fixed And Moving Window Contracts: An Application Of Asian-Basket Option Pricing Methods To The Hog Finishing Sector," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19823, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    795. E Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "Forecasting the Real Exchange Rate using a Long Span of Data. A Rematch: Linear vs Nonlinear," Working Papers 601190, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    796. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
    797. Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2018. "A note on the predictive power of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP," Discussion Papers 10/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    798. Giovanni De Luca & Alfonso Carfora, 2014. "Predicting U.S. recessions through a combination of probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 127-144, February.
    799. Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Hassani, Hossein, 2022. "‘Modelling’ UK tourism demand using fashion retail sales," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    800. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.
    801. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2004. "Forecast Encompassing And Futures Market Efficiency: The Case Of Milk Futures," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20267, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    802. Hamid Baghestani, 2009. "Survey evidence on forecast accuracy of U.S. term spreads," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 156-162, August.
    803. Dbouk, Wassim & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2018. "Predicting daily oil prices: Linear and non-linear models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 149-165.
    804. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2010. "Revisiting the Dollar-Euro Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-41, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    805. Sollis, Robert, 2008. "U.S. dollar real exchange rates: Nonlinearity revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 516-528, June.
    806. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "Crude oil price volatility and equity return predictability: A comparative out-of-sample study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    807. Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Ghodsi, Zara & Ghodsi, Mansi & Heravi, Saeed & Hassani, Hossein, 2017. "Cross country relations in European tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 151-168.
    808. Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Hassani, Hossein & Heravi, Saeed & Huang, Xu, 2019. "Forecasting tourism demand with denoised neural networks," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 134-154.
    809. Barbaglia, Luca & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Onorante, Luca & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Ratto, Marco & Tiozzo Pezzoli, Luca, 2022. "Testing big data in a big crisis: Nowcasting under COVID-19," Working Papers 2022-06, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
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    811. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
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    815. Kuo-Hsuan Chin, 2019. "Fiscal Stimulus on Bayesian DSGE Models," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(6), pages 688-708.
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    817. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics.
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    819. Kasai, Ndahiriwe & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rules for South Africa," MPRA Paper 40699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    837. Fernandez, Viviana, 2007. "Wavelet- and SVM-based forecasts: An analysis of the U.S. metal and materials manufacturing industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 80-89.
    838. Ebru Caglayan Akay & Sinem Guler Kangalli Uyar, 2016. "Determining the Functional Form of Relationships between Oil Prices and Macroeconomic Variables: The Case of Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 880-891.
    839. Daniel Grenouilleau, 2006. "The Stacked Leading Indicators Dynamic Factor Model: A Sensitivity Analysis of Forecast Accuracy using Bootstrapping," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 249, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    840. Eduard Baitinger, 2021. "Forecasting asset returns with network‐based metrics: A statistical and economic analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1342-1375, November.
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    842. N. Alemohammad & S. Rezakhah & S. H. Alizadeh, 2020. "Markov switching asymmetric GARCH model: stability and forecasting," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1309-1333, June.
    843. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi & Bayat , Saeed & Karami , Hooman, 2013. "Common Factors of CPI Sub-aggregates and Forecast of Inflation," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, October.
    844. Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
    845. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada.
    846. Perez, Javier J., 2007. "Leading indicators for euro area government deficits," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-275.
    847. Herrera, Gabriel Paes & Constantino, Michel & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Pistori, Hemerson & Su, Jen-Je & Naranpanawa, Athula, 2019. "Long-term forecast of energy commodities price using machine learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 214-221.
    848. Mark R. Manfredo & Dwight R. Sanders, 2004. "The forecasting performance of implied volatility from live cattle options contracts: Implications for agribusiness risk management," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 217-230.
    849. Steffen Henzel, 2008. "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," ifo Working Paper Series 55, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    850. Zhou, Feite & Huang, Zhehao & Zhang, Changhong, 2022. "Carbon price forecasting based on CEEMDAN and LSTM," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    851. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "A Critical Review of Posch, J. and F. Rumler (2015), 'Semi-Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,' Journal of Forecasting 34(2): 145-62," MPRA Paper 65665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    852. Riccardo Corradini, 2019. "A Set of State–Space Models at a High Disaggregation Level to Forecast Italian Industrial Production," J, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-53, November.
    853. Truong Ngoc Cuong & Sam-Sang You & Le Ngoc Bao Long & Hwan-Seong Kim, 2022. "Seaport Resilience Analysis and Throughput Forecast Using a Deep Learning Approach: A Case Study of Busan Port," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-25, October.
    854. Barış Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan & Hüseyin Kaya, 2023. "Nowcasting Turkish Food Inflation Using Daily Online Prices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 171-190, September.
    855. Kostas Andriosopoulos & Nikos Nomikos, 2012. "Risk management in the energy markets and Value-at-Risk modelling: a Hybrid approach," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/47, European University Institute.
    856. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.
    857. Ulrich Gunter & Irem Önder & Stefan Gindl, 2019. "Exploring the predictive ability of LIKES of posts on the Facebook pages of four major city DMOs in Austria," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 375-401, May.
    858. Fernando Moraes & Rodrigo De-Losso, 2020. "Risk Factor Centrality and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2020_17, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    859. Veiga, Helena, 2006. "Volatility forecasts: a continuous time model versus discrete time models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws062509, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    860. Hassani, Hossein & Webster, Allan & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Heravi, Saeed, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Tourist arrivals using optimal Singular Spectrum Analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 322-335.
    861. Olivier BIAU & Angela D´ELIA, 2010. "Euro Area GDP Forecast Using Large Survey Dataset - A Random Forest Approach," EcoMod2010 259600029, EcoMod.
    862. Fukuda, Kosei, 2006. "Monitoring unit root and multiple structural changes: An information criterion approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 121-130.
    863. Michael H. Breitner & Christian Dunis & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim & Christopher Neely & Georgios Sermpinis & Georgios Sermpinis & Charalampos Stasinakis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoul, 2014. "Inflation and Unemployment Forecasting with Genetic Support Vector Regression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 471-487, September.
    864. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "Crude oil price changes and the United Kingdom real gross domestic product growth rate: An out-of-sample investigation," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    865. Krzysztof Drachal & Daniel González Cortés, 2022. "Estimation of Lockdowns’ Impact on Well-Being in Selected Countries: An Application of Novel Bayesian Methods and Google Search Queries Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, December.
    866. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Commodity price forecasting via neural networks for coffee, corn, cotton, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar, and wheat," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 169-181, July.
    867. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    868. Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2023. "Energy-Related Uncertainty and International Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 202336, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    869. Kanas, Angelos & Vasiliou, Dimitrios & Eriotis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Revisiting bank profitability: A semi-parametric approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 990-1005.
    870. Célérier, C., 2009. "Forecasting inflation in France," Working papers 262, Banque de France.
    871. Richard D. F. Harris & Murat Mazibas, 2022. "A component Markov regime‐switching autoregressive conditional range model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 650-683, April.
    872. Julie K. Smith, 2012. "PCE inflation and core inflation," Working Papers 1203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    873. Reimers Hans-Eggert, 2003. "Does Money Include Information for Prices in the Euro Area? / Enthält Geld Informationen für die Preisentwicklung im Eurowährungsgebiet?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 223(5), pages 581-602, October.
    874. David Ubilava, 2022. "A comparison of multistep commodity price forecasts using direct and iterated smooth transition autoregressive methods," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 687-701, September.
    875. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    876. Döhrn, Roland, 2013. "Transportation Data as a Tool for Nowcasting Economic Activity – The German Road Pricing System as an Example," Ruhr Economic Papers 395, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    877. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Farhangdoost, Sara & Hoffman, Linwood A. & Adam, Brian D., 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. season-average farm price of corn: Derivation of an alternative futures-based forecasting model," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    878. Hakeem‐Ur Rehman & Guohua Wan & Raza Rafique, 2023. "A hybrid approach with step‐size aggregation to forecasting hierarchical time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 176-192, January.
    879. Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B. & Darné, O., 2008. "OPTIM: a quarterly forecasting tool for French GDP," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 31-47, Autumn.
    880. Nima Nonejad, 2020. "A detailed look at crude oil price volatility prediction using macroeconomic variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1119-1141, November.
    881. Ulrich Gunter, 2019. "Estimating and forecasting with a two-country DSGE model of the Euro area and the USA: the merits of diverging interest-rate rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1283-1323, April.
    882. Qi, Lingzhi & Li, Xixi & Wang, Qiang & Jia, Suling, 2023. "fETSmcs: Feature-based ETS model component selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1303-1317.
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Chapters

  1. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2009. "Forecast Combination and Encompassing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 4, pages 169-198, Palgrave Macmillan.

    Cited by:

    1. Fuentes, Julieta & Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez, Julio, 2014. "Selecting and combining experts from survey forecasts," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws140905, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Whitehouse, Emily J., 2017. "Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 833-847.
    3. Hyun Hak Kim, 2013. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Dimension Reduction Methods: The Case of Korea," Working Papers 2013-26, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    4. Dimitriadis, Timo & Liu, Xiaochun & Schnaitmann, Julie, 2020. "Encompassing tests for value at risk and expected shortfall multi-step forecasts based on inference on the boundary," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    5. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223, April.
    6. Bordignon, Silvano & Bunn, Derek W. & Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2013. "Combining day-ahead forecasts for British electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 88-103.
    7. David G. McMillan, 2021. "Predicting GDP growth with stock and bond markets: Do they contain different information?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3651-3675, July.
    8. Narayan Kundan Kishor, 2021. "Forecasting real‐time economic activity using house prices and credit conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 213-227, March.
    9. Ulrich Gunter, 2021. "Improving Hotel Room Demand Forecasts for Vienna across Hotel Classes and Forecast Horizons: Single Models and Combination Techniques Based on Encompassing Tests," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-36, November.
    10. Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro, 2010. "Fiscal sustainability and the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts: do supranational forecasts rather than government forecasts make a difference?," GEMF Working Papers 2010-07, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    11. Timo Dimitriadis & Julie Schnaitmann, 2019. "Forecast Encompassing Tests for the Expected Shortfall," Papers 1908.04569, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    12. McMillan, David G., 2019. "Stock return predictability: Using the cyclical component of the price ratio," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 228-242.

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