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Estimation of the conditional variance-covariance matrix of returns using the intraday range

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  • Harris, Richard D.F.
  • Yilmaz, Fatih

Abstract

This paper proposes a hybrid multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) estimator of the variance-covariance matrix of returns. The proposed estimator employs a range-based EWMA specification to estimate the conditional variances of returns, and a standard return-based EWMA specification to estimate the correlation between each pair of returns. The hybrid EWMA estimator offers an improvement over the standard EWMA estimator, both statistically and economically. Moreover, the hybrid EWMA estimator is less sensitive to the choice of decay factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Harris, Richard D.F. & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2010. "Estimation of the conditional variance-covariance matrix of returns using the intraday range," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 180-194, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:1:p:180-194
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    Cited by:

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      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Wei Kuang, 2021. "Conditional covariance matrix forecast using the hybrid exponentially weighted moving average approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1398-1419, December.
    4. Fiszeder, Piotr & Fałdziński, Marcin, 2019. "Improving forecasts with the co-range dynamic conditional correlation model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
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    7. Chen, Wei-Peng & Choudhry, Taufiq & Wu, Chih-Chiang, 2013. "The extreme value in crude oil and US dollar markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 191-210.

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