Directed graphs, information structure and forecast combinations: an empirical examination of US unemployment rates
Previous studies show that it is not always optimal to combine forecasts of alternative models. In this paper, we propose to use the recent advances in modeling directed acyclic graphs to study the issue of forecast combinations. In forecasting US unemployment rates, we demonstrate that the proposed procedure can be a useful tool for comparing information in rival forecasts and guiding the combination of individual forecasts. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998.
"Forecasting Economic Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, December.
- Granger, Clive W. J., 2003. "Some aspects of causal relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 69-71, January.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003.
"A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Steffen L. Lauritzen & Thomas S. Richardson, 2002. "Chain graph models and their causal interpretations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(3), pages 321-348.
- Hoover, Kevin D., 2005. "Automatic Inference Of The Contemporaneous Causal Order Of A System Of Equations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 69-77, February.
- Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003.
"Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
- Kevin Hoover & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 33, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001.
"Pooling of Forecasts,"
2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Zijun Wang & David A. Bessler, 2006. "Price and quantity endogeneity in demand analysis: evidence from directed acyclic graphs," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 34(1), pages 87-95, 01.
- David Harvey & Paul Newbold, 2000. "Tests for multiple forecast encompassing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 471-482.
- Min, C.K. & Zellner, A., 1992.
""Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Methods for Combining Models and Forecasts with Applications to Forecasting International Growth Rates","
90-92-23, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993. "Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
- Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
- Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
- Bunn, Derek W., 1985. "Statistical efficiency in the linear combination of forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 151-163.
- Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
- Swanson, Norman R & Zeng, Tian, 2001. "Choosing among Competing Econometric Forecasts: Regression-Based Forecast Combination Using Model Selection," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 425-440, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:4:p:353-366. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.