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An Evaluation Of Crop Forecast Accuracy For Corn And Soybeans: Usda And Private Information Services

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  • Egelkraut, Thorsten M.
  • Garcia, Philip
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Good, Darrel L.

Abstract

Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USDA and two private services. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors across the agencies were highly correlated. Relative accuracy varied by crop and month. In corn, USDA 's forecasts ranked as most accurate in all periods except in August during recent times, and improved more markedly as harvest progressed. In soybeans, forecast errors were very similar with the private agencies ranking as most accurate in August and September and making largest relative improvements in August during recent times. The USDA provided the most accurate October and November forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2002. "An Evaluation Of Crop Forecast Accuracy For Corn And Soybeans: Usda And Private Information Services," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19068, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrtwo:19068
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19068
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2006. "Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: Methods, Performance and Market Impacts over 1970 - 2005," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37514, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    2. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2005. "Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: Methods, Performance and Market Impacts over 1970 - 2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14785, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    3. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2003. "Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: An Overview of Methods, Performance and Market Impacts," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37496, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.

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    Crop Production/Industries;

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