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Optimal Military Spending in the US: A Time Series Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio d'Agostino

    (University of Perugia and UWE, Bristol)

  • Luca Pieroni

    (University of Perugia and UWE, Bristol)

  • J Paul Dunne

    (Department of Economics, British University in Egypt and UWE, Bristol)

Abstract

This paper extends previous work on the optimal size of government spend- ing by including nested functional decompositions of military spending into consumption and investment. Post World War II US data are then used to estimate nested non-linear growth models using semiparametric methods. As expected, investment in military and non-military expenditure are both found to be productive expenditures. Moreover there is little evidence to suggest that current military spending is having a negative impact on economic growth in the US, while civilian consumption only tends to have only a weak impact. This does not imply that society will necessarily bene?t from a reallocation of more spending to the military sector, nor that it is the best way to achieve economic growth. It does suggest that the US economy is not necessarily being hindered by its current military burden.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio d'Agostino & Luca Pieroni & J Paul Dunne, 2009. "Optimal Military Spending in the US: A Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 0903, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwe:wpaper:0903
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Naceur Khraief & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Saleheen Khan, 2018. "Are Fluctuations in Military Spending Transitory or Permanent? International Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1198-1212.
    2. Ramesh Chandra Das & Soumyananda Dinda & Frank Martin, 2018. "Defence Outlays Across Countries: Are They Converging?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 7(1), pages 109-129, June.
    3. Pierluigi Daddi & Giorgio d’Agostino & Luca Pieroni, 2018. "Does military spending stimulate growth? An empirical investigation in Italy," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 440-458, June.
    4. Giorgio d'Agostino & Luca Pieroni & J Paul Dunne, 2010. "Assessing the Effects of Military Expenditure on Growth," Working Papers 1012, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    5. Julien Malizard, 2014. "Dépenses militaires et croissance économique dans un contexte non linéaire. Le cas français," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 65(3), pages 601-618.
    6. Okey Mawussé Komlagan Nézan, 2016. "Public Expenditure and Private Sector Investment in WAEMU Countries," Working Papers 328, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    7. Malizard, Julien, 2015. "Does military expenditure crowd out private investment? A disaggregated perspective for the case of France," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 44-52.
    8. Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Does Military Spending Nonlinearly Affect Economic Growth in South Africa?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 474-487, June.
    9. Wang, Tung-Pao & Shyu, Stacy Huey-Pyng & Chou, Han-Chung, 2012. "The impact of defense expenditure on economic productivity in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2104-2114.
    10. Giorgio d’Agostino & John Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2019. "Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 509-524, July.
    11. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios (ed.), 2012. "The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195392777, Decembrie.
    12. d'Agostino, G. & Dunne, J.P. & Pieroni, L., 2016. "Corruption and growth in Africa," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 71-88.
    13. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2014. "The nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth: New global evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 474-483.
    14. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2017. "Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 719-730, November.
    15. J. Paul Dunne & Christine S. Makanza, 2019. "Nonlinear Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2019-04, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    16. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2015. "Defence And Non-Defence Spending In The Usa: Stimuli To Economic Growth? Comparative Findings From A Semiparametric Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(4), pages 359-370, October.
    17. Kollias, Christos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2013. "Guns, highways and economic growth in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 449-455.
    18. Julien Malizard, 2016. "Military expenditure and economic growth in the European Union: Evidence from SIPRI’s extended dataset," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 38-44, October.
    19. Clements, Benedict J. & Gupta, Sanjeev & Khamidova, Saida, 2021. "Is military spending converging to a low level across countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 433-441.
    20. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Öcal & Jülide Yildirim, 2023. "Distinct Asymmetric Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth for Different Income Groups of Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 477-494, May.
    21. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Kumar Mahalik, Mantu & Khan, Saleheen, 2018. "Military Spending Response to Defense Shocks? International Evidence," MPRA Paper 87362, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jun 2018.
    22. Kollias Christos & Tzeremes Panayiotis & Paleologou Suzanna-Maria, 2020. "Defence Spending and Unemployment in the USA: Disaggregated Analysis by Gender and Age Groups," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(2), pages 1-13, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; productive state spending; military spending; semi-parametric estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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