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Lewis revisited : tropical polities competing on the world market 1830-1938

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  • Federico, Giovanni

Abstract

Since the seminal work by W.A. Lewis, exports of primary products have been deemed the main or sole source of growth in tropical countries before the Great Depression. This conventional wisdom, however, relies on very limited evidence. This paper analyses the growth of exports with a constant market share analysis for 84 tropical polities. Exports grew a lot, but less than total trade, while relative prices of tropical products remained roughly constant. We thus tentatively infer that the decline in the tropical shares on world trade reflects an insufficient demand for tropical products. Asia mastered well these headwinds throughout the whole period, while African polities blossomed after World War One. The loser was (South) America, and most notably the Caribbean former slave colonies especially before 1870.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico, Giovanni, 2016. "Lewis revisited : tropical polities competing on the world market 1830-1938," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 23305, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:whrepe:23305
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher David Absell, 2020. "The rise of coffee in the Brazilian south‐east: tariffs and foreign market potential, 1827–40," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(4), pages 964-990, November.
    2. Federico, Giovanni, 2017. "Exports and American divergence. Lost decades and Emancipation collapse in Latin American and the Caribbean 1820-1870," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 24208, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.

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    Keywords

    International Trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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