IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mkg/wpaper/1302.html

Inflation Persistence in Central and Eastern European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Zsolt Darvas
  • Balázs Varga

    (OTP Fund Management and Corvinus University of Budapest)

Abstract

This paper studies inflation persistence with time-varying-coefficient autoregressions for twelve Central-European countries, in comparison with the US and the euro-area. Inflation persistence tends to be higher in times of high inflation. Since the oil price shocks, inflation persistence declined both in the US and euro-area. In most central and eastern European countries, for which our time period covers 1993-2012, inflation persistence has also declined, with the main exceptions of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia, where persistence seems to be rather stable. We also concluded that the OLS estimate of an autoregression is likely upward biased when the parameters change.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas & Balázs Varga, 2013. "Inflation Persistence in Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 1302, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest, revised Jul 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:1302
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web.uni-corvinus.hu/matkg/working_papers/wp_2013_2_darvas_varga.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    2. Franta, Michal & Saxa, Branislav & Šmídková, Kateřina, 2007. "Inflation persistence: euro area and new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 810, European Central Bank.
    3. Kim, Jae-Young & Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Amador, Rosa Badillo, 2002. "Corrigendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series" [J. Econom. 95 (2000) 97-116]," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 389-392, August.
    4. M. Dossche & G. Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/340, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
    6. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Harrison, Barry, 2010. "Inflation persistence and nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 81-83, February.
    7. Kalaba, Robert & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1988. "The flexible least squares approach to time-varying linear regression," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 43-48, March.
    8. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank & Altissimo, Filippo, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area: a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    10. Rob Ackrill and Simeon Coleman, 2012. "Inflation dynamics in central and eastern European countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2012/01, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    11. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November.
    12. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
    13. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    14. Zsolt Darvas & Balázs Varga, 2012. "Uncovering Time-Varying Parameters with the Kalman-Filter and the Flexible Least Squares: a Monte Carlo Study," Working Papers 1204, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    15. Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1990. "Flexible Least Squares for Approximately Linear Systems," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11190, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
    17. Giovanni Montana & Kostas Triantafyllopoulos & Theodoros Tsagaris, 2007. "Flexible least squares for temporal data mining and statistical arbitrage," Papers 0709.3884, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bogdan DIMA & Ştefana Maria DIMA & Flavia BARNA, 2019. "Inflation Contagion Effects in the Baltic Countries: A Time-varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic Volatility Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 72-87, March.
    2. Timo Henckel & Gordon D. Menzies & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2013. "The Great Recession and the Two Dimensions of European Central Bank Credibility," CAMA Working Papers 2013-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Alptekin, Aynur & Broadstock, David C. & Chen, Xiaoqi & Wang, Dong, 2019. "Time-varying parameter energy demand functions: Benchmarking state-space methods against rolling-regressions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 26-41.
    4. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    5. Oloko, Tirimisiyu F. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Lakhani, Noman, 2021. "Fractional cointegration between gold price and inflation rate: Implication for inflation rate persistence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Bruno Carrasco & Hiranya Mukhopadhyay, 2014. "Reserve Bank of India’s Policy Dilemmas: Reconciling Policy Goals in Times of Turbulence," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 393, Asian Development Bank.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Oil price–inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 1527-1542, March.
    8. Scott W. Hegerty, 2020. "Structural breaks and regional inflation convergence for five new Euro members," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 219-239, May.
    9. Hasan Engin Duran & Burak Dindaroğlu, 2021. "Regional inflation persistence in Turkey," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 460-491, March.
    10. Uliha, Gábor, 2016. "Az olajár gyengülő makrogazdasági hatásai. Két versengő elmélet szintézise [Weakening macroeconomic effects of the oil price. A synthesis of two competing theories]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 787-818.
    11. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Persistence of Inflation in Thailand," MPRA Paper 66203, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Darvas, Zsolt, 2015. "Does money matter in the euro area? Evidence from a new Divisia index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 123-126.
    13. Jozsef Moczar, 2016. "Noether's Theorem and the Lie Symmetries of Goodwin-model," Working Papers 1601, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    14. Oloko, Tirimisiyu F. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Lakhani, Noman, 2021. "Oil price shocks and inflation rate persistence: A Fractional Cointegration VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 259-275.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    2. Zsuzsanna Zsibók & Balázs Varga, 2012. "Inflation Persistence in Hungary: a Spatial Analysis," Working Papers 1203, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    3. Josipa VIŠIC & Blanka ŠKRABIC, 2010. "Determinants of Incoming Cross-Border M&A: Evidence from European Transition Economies," EcoMod2010 259600168, EcoMod.
    4. Brian Micallef & Reuben Ellul, 2020. "How Do Estimates of Inflation Persistence in Malta Compare with Other EU Countries?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(7), pages 1-31, July.
    5. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    6. Hans KREMERS & Andreas LOESCHEL, 2010. "The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
    7. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2020. "Inflation dynamics in Uganda: a quantile regression approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 161-187, May.
    8. Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
    9. Ian Babetskii & Ales Bulir & Fabrizio Coricelli & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2008. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Ten Years of Inflation Targeting," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, edition 1, volume 6, number rb06/1 edited by Ian Babetskii & Katerina Smidkova.
    10. Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Testing for a break in persistence under long‐range dependencies," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 263-285, May.
    11. Otavio Ribeiro de Medeiros and Vitor Leone, 2012. "Multiple Changes in Persistence vs. Explosive Behaviour: The Dotcom Bubble," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2012/02, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    12. Séverine Menguy, 2009. "Heterogeneity in Inflation Persistence and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 121-141.
    13. Roy Cerqueti & Mauro Costantini & Luciano Gutierrez, 2009. "New panel tests to assess inflation persistence," Working Papers 54-2009, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Oct 2009.
    14. repec:rim:rimwps:24-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Milas, Costas & Dergiades, Theologos & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2024. "An assessment of inflation targeting," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    16. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horvath, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/1, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    17. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    18. Martins, Luis F. & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2014. "Testing for persistence change in fractionally integrated models: An application to world inflation rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 502-522.
    19. Jan Babecký & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(2), pages 102-127, June.
    20. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo, 2010. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 262-273, January.
    21. Agnieszka Leszczynska & Katarzyna Hertel, 2013. "Inflation persistence – a disaggregated approach," EcoMod2013 5692, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:1302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Balazs Varga The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Balazs Varga to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mkbkehu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.