IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/has/discpr/1433.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does money matter in the euro area? Evidence from a new Divisia index

Author

Listed:
  • Zsolt Darvas

    (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and and Bruegel and Corvinus University of Budapest)

Abstract

Standard simple-sum monetary aggregates, like M3, sum up monetary assets that are imperfect substitutes and provide different transaction and investment services. Divisia monetary aggregates, originated from Barnett (1980), are derived from economic aggregation and index number theory and aim to aggregate the money components by considering their transaction service. No Divisia monetary aggregates are published for the euro area, in contrast to the United Kingdom and United States. We derive and make available a dataset on euro-area Divisia money aggregates for January 2001 – September 2014 using monthly data. We plan to update the dataset in the future. Using structural vector-autoregressions (SVAR), we find that Divisia aggregates have a significant impact on output about 1.5 years after a shock and tend also to have an impact on prices and interest rates. The latter result suggests that the European Central Bank reacted to developments in monetary aggregates. Divisia aggregates reacted negatively to unexpected increases in the interest rates. None of these results are significant when we use simple-sum measures of money. Our findings for the euro area complement the evidence from US data that Divisia monetary aggregates are useful in assessing the impacts of monetary policy and that they work better in SVAR models than simple-sum measures of money.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas, 2014. "Does money matter in the euro area? Evidence from a new Divisia index," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1433, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1433
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econ.core.hu/file/download/mtdp/MTDP1433.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Barnett, 2011. "Multilateral Aggregation-Theoretic Monetary Aggregation over Heterogeneous Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 6, pages 167-206, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Economic Monetary Aggregates: An Application of Index Number and Aggregation Theory," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 11-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Binner, Jane M. & Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Mullineux, Andrew W., 2009. "Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 99-114, February.
    4. Zsolt Darvas & Balẳ Varga, 2014. "Inflation persistence in central and eastern European countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(13), pages 1437-1448, May.
    5. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(2), pages 261-290, June.
    6. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 255-269, April.
    7. Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2002. "Analysing Divisia Aggregates for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 1103, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    9. Keating, John W. & Kelly, Logan J. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2014. "Solving the price puzzle with an alternative indicator of monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 188-194.
    10. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting \"M\" back in monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 761, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    12. Makram El-shagi & Logan J Kelly, 2014. "Liquidity in the liquidity crisis: evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates in Germany and the European crisis countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 63-72.
    13. Zsolt Darvas, 2010. "The case for reforming euro area entry criteria," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 32(2), pages 195-219, December.
    14. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting \\"M\\" back in monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1217-1264.
    15. William A. Barnett, 2000. "The User Cost of Money," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 6-10, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    16. Livio Stracca, 2004. "Does Liquidity Matter? Properties of a Divisia Monetary Aggregate in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 309-331, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ghosh, Taniya & Bhadury, Soumya, 2018. "Money's causal role in exchange rate: Do divisia monetary aggregates explain more?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 402-417.
    2. Barnett, William & Gaekwad, Neepa, 2021. "Multilateral Divisia monetary aggregates for the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 105528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. William A. Barnett & Neepa B. Gaekwad, 2018. "The Demand for Money for EMU: a Flexible Functional Form Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 353-371, April.
    4. Ghosh, Taniya & Parab, Prashant Mehul, 2018. "Testing the Friedman and Schwartz Hypothesis using Time Varying Correlation Analysis," MPRA Paper 90628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Maximilian C. Brill & Dieter Nautz & Lea Sieckmann, 2021. "Divisia monetary aggregates for a heterogeneous euro area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 247-278, February.
    6. Barnett, William A. & Ghosh, Taniya & Adil, Masudul Hasan, 2022. "Is money demand really unstable? Evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 606-622.
    7. Taniya Ghosh & Prashant Mehul Parab, 2019. "Testing the Friedman-Schwartz Hypothesis Using Time Varying Correlation," Working Papers id:12986, eSocialSciences.
    8. Matteo Farnè & Angela Montanari, 2022. "A Bootstrap Method to Test Granger-Causality in the Frequency Domain," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 935-966, March.
    9. Mehmet Ezer, 2019. "Do Monetary Aggregates Belong In A Monetary Model? Evidence From The Uk," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 509-530.
    10. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Shadow of the colossus: Euro area spillovers and monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    11. Barlow, David, 2023. "The stability of UK households Divisia money balances," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 451-459.
    12. Israr Ahmad Shah Hashmi & Arshad Ali Bhatti, 2019. "On the monetary measures of global liquidity," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, December.
    13. Hong, Puah & Leong, Choi-Meng & Mansor, Shazali & Lau, Evan, 2018. "Revisiting Money Demand in Malaysia: Simple-Sum versus Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(2), pages 267-278.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Shadow of the colossus: Euro area spillovers and monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. William A. Barnett & Neepa B. Gaekwad, 2018. "The Demand for Money for EMU: a Flexible Functional Form Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 353-371, April.
    3. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2012. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates for the GCC Countries," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Recent Developments in Alternative Finance: Empirical Assessments and Economic Implications, pages 1-37, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2021. "A Classical View of the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 333-366, March.
    5. Jones, Barry E. & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "Are money and consumption additively separable in the euro area? A non-parametric approach," Working Paper Series 704, European Central Bank.
    6. Israr Ahmad Shah Hashmi & Arshad Ali Bhatti, 2019. "On the monetary measures of global liquidity," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, December.
    7. William A. Barnett & Van H. Nguyen, 2021. "Constructing Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Singapore," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-15, August.
    8. Barry E. Jones & Livio Stracca, 2008. "Does Money Matter In The Is Curve? The Case Of The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(s1), pages 58-84, September.
    9. Chen, Zhengyang, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," EconStor Preprints 204579, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. John W. Keating & Logan J. Kelly & A. Lee Smith & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2019. "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 227-259, February.
    11. Dery, Cosmas & Serletis, Apostolos, 2021. "Interest Rates, Money, And Economic Activity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(7), pages 1842-1891, October.
    12. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2014. "Redundancy Or Mismeasurement? A Reappraisal Of Money," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(7), pages 1437-1465, October.
    13. Chen, Zhengyang & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2021. "Monetary transmission in money markets: The not-so-elusive missing piece of the puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Maximilian C. Brill & Dieter Nautz & Lea Sieckmann, 2021. "Divisia monetary aggregates for a heterogeneous euro area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 247-278, February.
    15. Jozsef Moczar, 2016. "Noether's Theorem and the Lie Symmetries of Goodwin-model," Working Papers 1601, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    16. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016. "Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1223-1266, September.
    17. William A. Barnett & Soumya Suvra Bhadury & Taniya Ghosh, 2016. "An SVAR Approach to Evaluation of Monetary Policy in India: Solution to the Exchange Rate Puzzles in an Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 871-893, November.
    18. Binner, Jane M. & Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Mullineux, Andrew W., 2009. "Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 99-114, February.
    19. Ghosh, Taniya & Bhadury, Soumya Suvra, 2018. "Has Money Lost Its Relevance? Resolving the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," MPRA Paper 90627, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Karoglou, Michail & Binner, Jane M., 2019. "Structural changes and the role of monetary aggregates in the UK," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 100-107.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Divisia index; Financial crisis; Monetary aggregation; Monetary policy; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1433. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nora Horvath (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehashu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.