Uncovering Time-Varying Parameters with the Kalman-Filter and the Flexible Least Squares: a Monte Carlo Study
Using Monte Carlo methods, we compare the ability of the Kalman-filter, the Kalman-smoother and the flexible least squares (FLS) to uncover the parameters of an autoregression. We find that the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator performs much better that the time-varying coefficient methods when the parameters are in fact constant, but the OLS does very poorly when parameters change. Neither the FLS, nor the Kalman-filter and Kalman-smoother can uncover sudden changes in parameters. But when parameter changes are smoother, such as linear, sinusoid or even random walk changes in the parameters, the FLS with a weight parameter 100 works reasonably well and typically outperforms even the Kalman-smoother, which is in turn performed better than the Kalman-filter.
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- Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1988.
"The Flexible Least Squares Approach to Time-Varying Linear Regression,"
Staff General Research Papers Archive
11198, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Kalaba, Robert & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1988. "The flexible least squares approach to time-varying linear regression," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 43-48, March.
- Kalaba, Robert & Rasakhoo, Nima & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1989.
"A FORTRAN program for time-varying linear regression via flexible least squares,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,
Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 291-309, February.
- Kalaba, R. & Rasakhoo, N. & Tesfatsion, L., 1988. "A Fortran Program For Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Papers m8730, Southern California - Department of Economics.
- Kalaba, Robert E. & Rasakhoo, N. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1989. "A Fortran Program for Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11195, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1990. "Flexible Least Squares for Approximately Linear Systems," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11190, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Robert Kalaba & Leigh Tesfatsion, 1995.
"A Multicriteria Approach to Model Specification and Estimation,"
- Kalaba, Robert & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1996. "A multicriteria approach to model specification and estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 193-214, February.
- Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1996. "A Multicriteria Approach to Model Specification and Estimation," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1684, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Giovanni Montana & Kostas Triantafyllopoulos & Theodoros Tsagaris, 2007. "Flexible least squares for temporal data mining and statistical arbitrage," Papers 0709.3884, arXiv.org.
- Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1989. "Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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