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Inflation persistence in central and eastern European countries

Author

Listed:
  • Zsolt Darvas

    (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Bruegel, Brussels, Belgium and Corvinus University Budapest)

  • Balazs Varga

    (OTP Fund Management Ltd.)

Abstract

This article studies inflation persistence with time-varying coefficient autoregressions for twelve central European countries, in comparison with the United States and the euro area. Inflation persistence tends to be higher in times of high inflation. Since the oil price shocks, inflation persistence has declined both in the US and the euro-area. In most central and eastern European countries, for which our study covers 1993-2012, inflation persistence has also declined, with the main exceptions of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia, where persistence seems to be rather stable. These findings have implications for the conduct of monetary policy and for a possible membership in the euro area. We also conclude that the OLS estimate of an autoregression is likely upward biased relative to the time-average of time-varying parameters, when the parameters change.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas & Balazs Varga, 2013. "Inflation persistence in central and eastern European countries," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1327, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1327
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    Cited by:

    1. Bogdan DIMA & Ştefana Maria DIMA & Flavia BARNA, 2019. "Inflation Contagion Effects in the Baltic Countries: A Time-varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic Volatility Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 72-87, March.
    2. Timo Henckel & Gordon D. Menzies & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2013. "The Great Recession and the Two Dimensions of European Central Bank Credibility," CAMA Working Papers 2013-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Alptekin, Aynur & Broadstock, David C. & Chen, Xiaoqi & Wang, Dong, 2019. "Time-varying parameter energy demand functions: Benchmarking state-space methods against rolling-regressions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 26-41.
    4. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    5. Oloko, Tirimisiyu F. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Lakhani, Noman, 2021. "Fractional cointegration between gold price and inflation rate: Implication for inflation rate persistence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Bruno Carrasco & Hiranya Mukhopadhyay, 2014. "Reserve Bank of India’s Policy Dilemmas: Reconciling Policy Goals in Times of Turbulence," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 393, Asian Development Bank.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Oil price–inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 1527-1542, March.
    8. Scott W. Hegerty, 2020. "Structural breaks and regional inflation convergence for five new Euro members," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 219-239, May.
    9. Hasan Engin Duran & Burak Dindaroğlu, 2021. "Regional inflation persistence in Turkey," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 460-491, March.
    10. Uliha, Gábor, 2016. "Az olajár gyengülő makrogazdasági hatásai. Két versengő elmélet szintézise [Weakening macroeconomic effects of the oil price. A synthesis of two competing theories]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 787-818.
    11. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Persistence of Inflation in Thailand," MPRA Paper 66203, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Darvas, Zsolt, 2015. "Does money matter in the euro area? Evidence from a new Divisia index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 123-126.
    13. Jozsef Moczar, 2016. "Noether's Theorem and the Lie Symmetries of Goodwin-model," Working Papers 1601, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    14. Oloko, Tirimisiyu F. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Lakhani, Noman, 2021. "Oil price shocks and inflation rate persistence: A Fractional Cointegration VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 259-275.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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