IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2019i1p72-87.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation Contagion Effects in the Baltic Countries: A Time-varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic Volatility Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Bogdan DIMA

    (West University of Timisoara, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, East-European Center for Research in Economics and Business (ECREB), Timisoara, Romania;)

  • Ştefana Maria DIMA

    (West University of Timisoara, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, East-European Center for Research in Economics and Business (ECREB), Timisoara, Romania)

  • Flavia BARNA

    (West University of Timisoara, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, East-European Center for Research in Economics and Business (ECREB), Timisoara, Romania.)

Abstract

Despite the recent progress in ensuring price stability, inflation persistence still is a key policy issue for the Central and Eastern European countries. Among various structural and functional determinants of potential inflation tensions, the increase in the degree of openness and the regional interdependences are playing an important role. The case of the Baltic countries can provide some interesting empirical evidence for the transmission of exogenous inflation shocks in the case of small open economies and can highlight the transmission channels which are associated with the existence of ‘dual inflation’. We propose a two-fold approach to this topic: (i) we advance a simple model aiming to capture some mechanisms which might produce inflation contagion effects; (ii) we test for the existence of such effects between the Baltic countries for January 1996 and April 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogdan DIMA & Ştefana Maria DIMA & Flavia BARNA, 2019. "Inflation Contagion Effects in the Baltic Countries: A Time-varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic Volatility Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 72-87, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2019:i:1:p:72-87
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_19/rjef1_2019p72-87.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zsolt Darvas & Balẳ Varga, 2014. "Inflation persistence in central and eastern European countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(13), pages 1437-1448, May.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    5. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    6. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    7. Alberto Musso & Livio Stracca & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Instability and Nonlinearity in the Euro-Area Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 181-212, June.
    8. Andong Zhu & Robert Pollin, 2005. "Inflation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Non-linear Analysis," Working Papers wp109, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    9. Hiranya Nath & Kiril Tochkov, 2010. "Relative Inflation Dynamics in the EU Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 1005, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    10. Alf Vanags & Morten Hansen, 2006. "Inflation in the Baltic States and Other EU New Member States: Similarities, Differences and Adoption of the Euro," SSE Riga/BICEPS Occasional Papers 1, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    11. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "How should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 195-259.
    12. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 132, European Central Bank.
    13. Mamdouh Abdelmoula M. ABDELSALAM, 2017. "Improving Phillips Curve’s Inflation Forecasts under Misspecification," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 54-76, September.
    14. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    15. Chien-Chiang Lee & Swee Yoong Wong, 2005. "Inflationary Threshold Effects In The Relationship Between Financial Development And Economic Growth: Evidence From Taiwan And Japan," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 49-69, June.
    16. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    17. Hiranya Nath & Kiril Tochkov, 2011. "Relative Inflation in the EU Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 201105, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
    18. Zhaosu MENG & Wei WEI & Xiaotong LIU & Kedong YIN, 2018. "The Influence of International Capital Flow on the Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 21-40, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jebabli, Ikram & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 66-98.
    2. Amine Ben Amar, 2022. "On the role of Islamic banks in the monetary policy transmission in Saudi Arabia," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(1), pages 55-94, March.
    3. Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes, 2015. "Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions: Specification, Estimation, and an Application," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 4Q, pages 323-352.
    4. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Forecasting US GNP growth: The role of uncertainty," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 541-559, August.
    5. Chance Ngamanya Mwabutwa & Nicola Viegi & Manoel Bittencourt, 2016. "Evolution Of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism In Malawi: A Tvp-Var Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 33-55, March.
    6. Coşkun Akdeniz, 2021. "Construction of the Monetary Conditions Index with TVP-VAR Model: Empirical Evidence for Turkish Economy," Springer Books, in: Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz (ed.), Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics, edition 1, pages 215-228, Springer.
    7. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain: Assessing the role of unconventional policies for a decade of household data," Papers 1912.09702, arXiv.org.
    9. Esteban Prieto & Sandra Eickmeier & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Time Variation in Macro‐Financial Linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1215-1233, November.
    10. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    11. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    12. Liang Xie & Xianzhong Mu & Kuanyuting Lu & Dongou Hu & Guangwen Hu, 2023. "The time-varying relationship between CO2 emissions, heterogeneous energy consumption, and economic growth in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 7769-7793, August.
    13. Kang, Sang Hoon & Islam, Faridul & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral, 2019. "The dynamic relationships among CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy sources, and economic growth in India: Evidence from time-varying Bayesian VAR model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 90-101.
    14. Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul & Nikiforos, Michalis, 2024. "Estimating a Time-Varying Distribution-Led Regime," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 163-176.
    15. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Jouchi Nakajima, 2021. "Steady‐state growth," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 40-52, April.
    17. Nakajima, Jouchi & Kasuya, Munehisa & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 225-245, September.
    18. Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2020. "Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1092-1110, July.
    19. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    20. Guevara, Carlos & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "The role of credit supply shocks in pacific alliance countries: A TVP-VAR-SV approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Baltic countries; inflation; Time-Varying Coefficients VAR; stochastic volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2019:i:1:p:72-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.