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Change in persistence tests for panels

Author

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  • Cerqueti, Roy

    ()

  • Costantini, Mauro

    ()

  • Gutierrez, Luciano

    ()

Abstract

In this paper we propose a set of new panel tests to detect changes in persistence. These statistics are used to test the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a change in persistence from I(0) to I(1) or viceversa. Alternative of unknown direction is also considered. The limiting distributions of the panel tests are derived and small sample properties are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments under the hypothesis that the individual series are cross-sectionally independently distributed. These tests have a good size and power properties. Cross-sectional dependence is also considered. A procedure of de-factorizing proposed by Stock and Watson (2002) is applied. Monte Carlo analysis is conducted and the defactored panel tests show to have good size and power. The empirical results obtained from applying these tests to a panel covering 15 European countries between 1970 and 2006 suggest that inflation rate changes from I(1) to I(0) when cross-correlation is considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerqueti, Roy & Costantini, Mauro & Gutierrez, Luciano, 2007. "Change in persistence tests for panels," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp07040, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  • Handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp07040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    3. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A & Weil, David N, 1987. "The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 358-374, June.
    4. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
    5. Costantini, Mauro & Gutierrez, Luciano, 2007. "Simple panel unit root tests to detect changes in persistence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 363-368, September.
    6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    7. A. M. Robert Taylor, 2005. "On the use of Sub-sample Unit Root Tests to Detect Changes in Persistence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 759-778, September.
    8. Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Vanessa Smith & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Tests for a change in persistence against the null of difference-stationarity," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 291-311, December.
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    11. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    12. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November.
    13. Emery, Kenneth M., 1994. "Inflation persistence and Fisher effects: Evidence of a regime change," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 141-152, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Persistence; Stationarity; Panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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