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Anything but gold. The golden constant revisited

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  • Jean-François Carpantier

    (corresponding member UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

Abstract

This paper revisits the golden constant - the gold property of keeping a constant purchasing power - via a comparison with a set of 17 commodities (energy, metals, agricultural products). We first use graphical devices of the CPI-deflated commodity prices, then stationarity tests designed to assess how fast the real prices of the commodities revert to their “constant” and, finally, measurements of their convergence speed. We find that the real price of gold is far from a constant, farther than the real price of most other commodities. We also note that the mean reversion of gold real price to its constant/average is weaker and slower than for most other commodities. These findings suggest that most commodities do a better job than gold when it comes to keeping a constant purchasing power. A portfolio of commodities would provide a liquidity similar to gold, while offering to investors a more stable protection against inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Carpantier, 2020. "Anything but gold. The golden constant revisited," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020036, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2020036
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    Cited by:

    1. Min Bai & Ly Ho, 2023. "How do gold and oil react to the COVID-19 pandemic: A review," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(7), pages 2876-2902, November.
    2. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Oil and gold as a hedge and safe-haven for metals and agricultural commodities with portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    3. Arfaoui, Nadia & Yousaf, Imran & Jareño, Francisco, 2023. "Return and volatility connectedness between gold and energy markets: Evidence from the pre- and post-COVID vaccination phases," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 617-634.
    4. Depren, Özer & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Kılıç Depren, Serpil, 2021. "Changes of gold prices in COVID-19 pandemic: Daily evidence from Turkey's monetary policy measures with selected determinants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gold; inflation; safe haven; portfolio diversification; hedging; commodities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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