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Evaluating the forecasting performance of econometric models of air passenger traffic flows using multiple error measures

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  • Fildes, Robert
  • Wei, Yingqi
  • Ismail, Suzilah

Abstract

Airline traffic forecasting is important to airlines and regulatory authorities. This paper examines a number of approaches to forecasting short- to medium-term air traffic flows. It contributes as a rare replication, testing a variety of alternative modelling approaches. The econometric models employed include autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, time-varying parameter (TVP) models and an automatic method for econometric model specification. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model and various univariate alternatives are also included to deliver unconditional forecast comparisons. Various approaches for taking into account interactions between contemporaneous air traffic flows are examined, including pooled ADL models and the enhanced models with the addition of a "world trade" variable. Based on the analysis of a number of forecasting error measures, it is concluded that pooled ADL models that include the "world trade" variable outperform the alternatives, and in particular univariate methods; and, second, that automatic modelling procedures are enhanced through judgmental intervention. In contrast to earlier results, the TVP models do not improve accuracy. Depending on the preferred error measure, the difference in accuracy may be substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Fildes, Robert & Wei, Yingqi & Ismail, Suzilah, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of econometric models of air passenger traffic flows using multiple error measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 902-922, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y::i:3:p:902-922
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844, July.
    2. Xiao, Yi & Liu, John J. & Hu, Yi & Wang, Yingfeng & Lai, Kin Keung & Wang, Shouyang, 2014. "A neuro-fuzzy combination model based on singular spectrum analysis for air transport demand forecasting," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2013. "Border Region Bridge and Air Transport Predictability," MPRA Paper 59583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2013.
    4. Huang, Tao & Fildes, Robert & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "The value of competitive information in forecasting FMCG retail product sales and the variable selection problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 738-748.
    5. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
    6. repec:eee:touman:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:213-223 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gur Ali, Ozden & Pinar, Efe, 2016. "Multi-period-ahead forecasting with residual extrapolation and information sharing — Utilizing a multitude of retail series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 502-517.
    8. repec:taf:japsta:v:44:y:2017:i:7:p:1211-1224 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Emrouznejad, Ali & Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Petridis, Konstantinos, 2016. "A novel ranking procedure for forecasting approaches using Data Envelopment Analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 235-243.

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