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Modelling trends in central England temperatures


  • Terence C. Mills

    (Loughborough University, UK)

  • David I. Harvey

    (Loughborough University, UK)


Trends are extracted from the central England temperature (CET) data available from 1723, using both annual and seasonal averages. Attention is focused on fitting non-parametric trends and it is found that, while there is no compelling evidence of a trend increase in the CET, there have been three periods of cooling, stability, and warming, roughly associated with the beginning and the end of the Industrial Revolution. There does appear to have been an upward shift in trend spring temperatures, but forecasting of current trends is hazardous because of the statistical uncertainty surrounding them. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Terence C. Mills & David I. Harvey, 2003. "Modelling trends in central England temperatures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 35-47.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:1:p:35-47 DOI: 10.1002/for.857

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2002. "Unit roots and double smooth transitions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 675-683.
    3. Gomez, Victor, 2001. "The Use of Butterworth Filters for Trend and Cycle Estimation in Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 365-373, July.
    4. Pollock, D. S. G., 2000. "Trend estimation and de-trending via rational square-wave filters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 317-334, December.
    5. Pollock, D. S. G., 2001. "Methodology for trend estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 75-96, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalo, Jesús & Gadea Rivas, María Dolores, 2017. "Trends in distributional characteristics : Existence of global warming," UC3M Working papers. Economics 24121, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    2. Jewson Stephen & Penzer Jeremy, 2006. "Estimating Trends in Weather Series: Consequences for Pricing Derivatives," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, September.
    3. repec:bla:jorssa:v:180:y:2017:i:3:p:769-791 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Tommaso Proietti & Eric Hillebrand, 2017. "Seasonal changes in central England temperatures," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(3), pages 769-791, June.

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