IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/14327_3.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Trends, cycles and structural breaks

In: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • Terence C. Mills

Abstract

This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook concentrates on the most important issues, models and techniques for research in macroeconomics, and highlights the core methodologies and their empirical application in an accessible manner. Each chapter is largely self-contained, whilst the comprehensive introduction provides an overview of the key statistical concepts and methods. All of the chapters include the essential references for each topic and provide a sound guide for further reading.

Suggested Citation

  • Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Trends, cycles and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 3, pages 45-60, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:14327_3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.elgaronline.com/view/9780857931016.00008.xml
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Tommaso Proietti, 2009. "On the Model-Based Interpretation of Filters and the Reliability of Trend-Cycle Estimates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 186-208.
    3. Carvalho, Vasco M. & Harvey, Andrew C., 2005. "Growth, cycles and convergence in US regional time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 667-686.
    4. Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14327.
    5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005. "Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
    7. Peter C. Young, 2011. "Gauss, Kalman and advances in recursive parameter estimation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 104-146, January.
    8. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2011. "Testing For Unit Roots In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend And Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 957-991, October.
    9. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Challenges of trending time series econometrics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 401-416.
    10. Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003. "General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, May.
    11. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2007. "Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 459-502, March.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
    13. Harris, David & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Testing For A Unit Root In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1545-1588, December.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    15. L. R. Klein & R. F. Kosobud, 1961. "Some Econometrics of Growth: Great Ratios of Economics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(2), pages 173-198.
    16. Kozicki, Sharon, 1999. "Multivariate detrending under common trend restrictions: Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 997-1028, June.
    17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    18. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    19. Thomas M. Trimbur, 2006. "Properties of higher order stochastic cycles," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, January.
    20. Harvey, Andrew C. & Trimbur, Thomas M. & Van Dijk, Herman K., 2007. "Trends and cycles in economic time series: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 618-649, October.
    21. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    22. Hendry, David F. & Massmann, Michael, 2007. "Co-Breaking: Recent Advances and a Synopsis of the Literature," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 33-51, January.
    23. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
    24. Carvalho, Vasco & Harvey, Andrew & Trimbur, Thomas, 2007. "A Note on Common Cycles, Common Trends, and Convergence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 12-20, January.
    25. White Halbert & Granger Clive W.J., 2011. "Consideration of Trends in Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, February.
    26. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    2. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
    4. Proietti, Tommaso, 2007. "Signal extraction and filtering by linear semiparametric methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 935-958, October.
    5. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    6. Fiona Atkins, 2005. "Financial Crises and Money Demand in Jamaica," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0512, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    7. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2006. "State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-029, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    8. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
    9. Fritz, Marlon, 2019. "Steady state adjusting trends using a data-driven local polynomial regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 312-325.
    10. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    11. Donald Robertson & Anthony Garratt & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 521-542.
    12. Tommaso Proietti, 2009. "Structural Time Series Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 9, pages 385-433, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Polbin, Andrey & Skrobotov, Anton, 2017. "Спектральная Оценка Компоненты Бизнес Цикла Ввп России С Учетом Высокой Зависимости От Условий Торговли [Spectral estimation of the business cycle component of the Russian GDP under high dependence," MPRA Paper 78667, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2016. "Measuring business cycles with structural breaks and outliers: Applications to international data," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 281-303.
    16. Günes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 550-566, July.
    17. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    18. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    19. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
    20. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2006. "A comparison of alternative asymptotic frameworks to analyse a structural change in a linear time trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 423-447, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics and Finance; Research Methods;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:14327_3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Darrel McCalla (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.e-elgar.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.