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Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests For Seasonal Unit Roots

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Jansson

    (UC Berkeley and CREATES)

  • Morten Ø. Nielsen

    () (Queen's University and CREATES)

Abstract

In an important generalization of zero frequency autoregressive unit root tests, Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, and Yoo (1990) developed regression-based tests for unit roots at the seasonal frequencies in quarterly time series. We develop likelihood ratio tests for seasonal unit roots and show that these tests are "nearly efficient" in the sense of Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), i.e. that their asymptotic local power functions are indistinguishable from the Gaussian power envelope. Nearly efficient testing procedures for seasonal unit roots have been developed, including point optimal tests based on the Neyman-Pearson Lemma as well as regression-based tests, e.g. Rodrigues and Taylor (2007). However, both require the choice of a GLS detrending parameter, which our likelihood ratio tests do not.In an important generalization of zero frequency autoregressive unit root tests, Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, and Yoo (1990) developed regression-based tests for unit roots at the seasonal frequencies in quarterly time series. We develop likelihood ratio tests for seasonal unit roots and show that these tests are "nearly efficient" in the sense of Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), i.e. that their asymptotic local power functions are indistinguishable from the Gaussian power envelope. Nearly efficient testing procedures for seasonal unit roots have been developed, including point optimal tests based on the Neyman-Pearson Lemma as well as regression-based tests, e.g. Rodrigues and Taylor (2007). However, both require the choice of a GLS detrending parameter, which our likelihood ratio tests do not.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Jansson & Morten Ø. Nielsen, 2009. "Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests For Seasonal Unit Roots," Working Paper 1224, Economics Department, Queen's University.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1224
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    1. Michael Jansson, 2008. "Semiparametric Power Envelopes for Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(5), pages 1103-1142, September.
    2. Michael Jansson & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 2321-2332, September.
    3. Smith, Richard J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert & del Barrio Castro, Tomas, 2009. "Regression-Based Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 527-560, April.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    5. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    6. Rothenberg, Thomas J. & Stock, James H., 1997. "Inference in a nearly integrated autoregressive model with nonnormal innovations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 269-286, October.
    7. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
    8. Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "Efficient tests of the seasonal unit root hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 548-573, December.
    9. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    10. Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2004. "Asymptotic Distributions For Regression-Based Seasonal Unit Root Test Statistics In A Near-Integrated Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 645-670, August.
    11. Gregoir, Stephane, 2006. "Efficient tests for the presence of a pair of complex conjugate unit roots in real time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 45-100, January.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    13. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
    14. Ulrich K. M¸ller & Graham Elliott, 2003. "Tests for Unit Roots and the Initial Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1269-1286, July.
    15. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Unit Root Testing In Practice: Dealing With Uncertainty Over The Trend And Initial Condition," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 587-636, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Skrobotov, Anton, 2018. "On bootstrap implementation of likelihood ratio test for a unit root," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 154-158.
    2. Eroğlu, Burak Alparslan & Göğebakan, Kemal Çağlar & Trokić, Mirza, 2018. "Powerful nonparametric seasonal unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 75-80.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Likelihood Ratio Test; Seasonal Unit Root Hypothesis;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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