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Does Benford’s Law hold in economic research and forecasting?


  • Stefan Günnel
  • Karl-Heinz Tödter



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Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Günnel & Karl-Heinz Tödter, 2009. "Does Benford’s Law hold in economic research and forecasting?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 273-292, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:36:y:2009:i:3:p:273-292 DOI: 10.1007/s10663-008-9084-1

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002. "Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-2.
    2. De Ceuster, Marc J. K. & Dhaene, Geert & Schatteman, Tom, 1998. "On the hypothesis of psychological barriers in stock markets and Benford's Law," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 263-279, September.
    3. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2001. "Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55.
    4. Christin Schäfer & Jörg-Peter Schräpler & Klaus-Robert Müller & Gert G. Wagner, 2005. "Automatic Identification of Faked and Fraudulent Interviews in the German SOEP," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 125(1), pages 183-193.
    5. Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187.
    6. B. D. McCullough & H. D. Vinod, 2003. "Verifying the Solution from a Nonlinear Solver: A Case Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 873-892, June.
    7. George Judge & Laura Schechter, 2009. "Detecting Problems in Survey Data Using Benford’s Law," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(1).
    8. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Pooling of forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, June.
    9. McCullough, B. D. & McGeary, Kerry Anne & Harrison, Teresa D., 2006. "Lessons from the JMCB Archive," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1093-1107, June.
    10. Michael Berlemann & Forrest Nelson, 2005. "Forecasting Inflation via Experimental Stock Markets Some Results from Pilot Markets," ifo Working Paper Series 10, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 2007. "Viewpoint: Replication in economics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 715-733, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Hofmarcher & Kurt Hornik, 2013. "First Significant Digits and the Credit Derivative Market During the Financial Crisis," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 7(2), June.

    More about this item


    Benford’s Law; Fraud detection; Regression coefficients; Standard errors; Growth and inflation forecasts; Rounding; C8; C52; C12;

    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General


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