Banks, Asset Management or Consultancies' Inflation Forecasts: is there a better forecaster out there?
The Focus Survey is a cunningly designed economic survey carried out by the Central Bank of Brazil. However, along its existence there have occasionally been some criticisms that its median forecast is “biased” due to allegedly strategic reasons. Although different groups of agents do have different strategic behaviours, one cannot take for granted that some groups predict differently from others. This paper tests if there are statistically significant differences in forecast accuracy between different groups of participants in the Focus Survey. Evidence shows some differences in forecasting ability among groups, but overall financial system forecasters have similar forecasting accuracy than consultancies.
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