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The Value of Public Price Forecasts: Additional Evidence in the Live Hog Market

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  • Manfredo, Mark R.
  • Sanders, Dwight R.

Abstract

USDA and Cooperative Extension Service forecasts of hog prices are directly tested for incremental value vis-à-vis futures-based forecasts in a forecast encompassing framework. At horizons less than six months, the lean hog futures-based forecast is found to be more accurate than both the USDA and Extension Service forecasts, and the difference in forecasting performance is statistically significant. Not only are the agency forecasts less accurate, but neither the USDA nor the Extension Service forecasts add incremental information relative to the futures forecast. The results suggest that extension forecasters may want to refocus forecasting efforts on basis relationships, longer forecast horizons, or commodities without active futures markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2004. "The Value of Public Price Forecasts: Additional Evidence in the Live Hog Market," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 22(2), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jloagb:59395
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.59395
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    2. Freebairn, John W., 1978. "An Evaluation of Outlook Information for Australian Agricultural Commodities," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(03), pages 1-21, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    2. Ates, Aaron M. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2019. "Forecasting Meat Prices Using Consumer Expectations from the Food Demand Survey (FooDS)," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 50(01), March.
    3. Vollmer, Teresa & Holst, Carsten, 2016. "Dienen Terminmarktnotierungen Für Schlachtschweine Zur Prognose Zukünftiger Preisentwicklungen?," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244806, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. Franken, Jason & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2013. "Information Transmission between Livestock Futures and Expert Price Forecasts," 2013 Conference, April 22-23, 2013, St. Louis, Missouri 285806, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    5. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Evelyn V. Colino & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(1), pages 1-15.
    7. Bekkerman, Anton & Brester, Gary W. & Taylor, Mykel, 2016. "Forecasting a Moving Target: The Roles of Quality and Timing for Determining Northern U.S. Wheat Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(01), pages 1-17, January.

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