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George William Evans

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Learning and Macroeconomics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 421-451, May.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Crazy economic models
      by Mark Buchanan in The Physics of Finance on 2011-10-11 18:27:00
    2. Learning in macroeconomics...
      by Mark Buchanan in The Physics of Finance on 2011-10-14 19:01:00
  2. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 2006. "Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 249-264, March.

    Mentioned in:

    1. [経済]学習しない英国人？
      by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-11-11 14:00:00
  3. George W. Evans & Eran Guse & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2007-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 05 Jun 2007.

    Mentioned in:

    1. "Deep Recession Calls for Healthy Dose of Fiscal Stimulation"
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2009-08-03 01:06:09
  4. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542, Elsevier.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Sampling Out of What?
      by Agent Continuum in Agent Continuum on 2009-12-06 04:19:36

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2011. "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 159-191, July.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes (AEJ:MA 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Evans, George W, 1989. "Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950-1985," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 213-237, July-Sept.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Output and unemployment dynamics in the United States: 1950–1985 (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1989) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy: a Nonlinear Analysis," Discussion Papers 22-01, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

    Cited by:

    1. Ashwin, Julian & Beaudry, Paul & Ellison, Martin, 2025. "Neural network learning for nonlinear economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Dobrew, Michael & Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Röttger, Joost, 2025. "Make-up strategies with incomplete markets and bounded rationality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    3. Salle, Isabelle L., 2023. "What to target? Insights from a lab experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 514-533.
    4. Olena Kostyshyna & Tolga Özden & Yang Zhang, 2024. "Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals," Staff Working Papers 24-14, Bank of Canada.
    5. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    6. Chatterji, Shurojit & Kajii, Atsushi, 2023. "Decentralizability of efficient allocations with heterogeneous forecasts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).

  2. Evans, George & Gibbs, Christopher & McGough, Bruce, 2021. "A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast," Working Papers 2021-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

  3. George Evans & Roger Guesnerie & Bruce Mcgough, 2019. "Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models," Post-Print halshs-02084319, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Desgranges & Sayantan Ghosal, 2021. "Partial Consensus in Large Games and Markets," Working Papers 2021_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Evans, George W. & Hommes, Cars & McGough, Bruce & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 44-63.
    3. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
    4. Kuhle, Wolfgang, 2021. "Equilibrium with computationally constrained agents," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 77-92.
    5. Gabriel Desgranges & Sayantan Ghosal, 2021. "Heterogeneous beliefs and approximately self-fulfilling outcomes," Working Papers 2021_07, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

  4. George Evans & Cars Hommes & Bruce McGough & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments," Staff Working Papers 19-27, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Annarita Colasante & Alba Ruiz-Buforn, 2024. "The effect of time-varying fundamentals in learning-to-forecast experiments," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 19(4), pages 619-647, October.
    2. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal stimulus in expectations-driven liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-687.
    3. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Forecast revisions in the presence of news: a lab investigation," Working Papers 0714, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    4. Ina Hajdini, 2022. "Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 22-03R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 06 Mar 2023.
    5. Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2018. "Speculation and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    7. Mikhail Anufriev & Aleksei Chernulich & Jan Tuinstra, 2020. "Asset Price Volatility and Investment Horizons: An Experimental Investigation," Working Papers 20200053, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Aug 2020.
    8. Elton Beqiraj & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Carolina Serpieri, 2020. "Bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations: Euler versus anticipated-utility approach," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 249-273, August.
    9. Leonid Serkov & Sergey Krasnykh, 2023. "The Specific Behavior of Economic Agents with Heterogeneous Expectations in the New Keynesian Model with Rigid Prices and Wages," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, February.
    10. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal Stimulus In Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 0683, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    11. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Salle, Isabelle, 2025. "Learning to be rational in the presence of news: A lab investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    12. Airaudo, Marco, 2020. "Temptation and forward-guidance," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

  5. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Expectations, stagnation and fiscal policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2016, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Salle, Isabelle L., 2023. "What to target? Insights from a lab experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 514-533.
    2. E. Quaghebeur, 2013. "Learning and the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/851, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Learning to Believe in Secular Stagnation," Discussion Papers 2017-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    4. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Raf Wouters, 2024. "Survey Expectations, Adaptive Learning and Inflation Dynamics," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp781, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    5. Lansing, Kevin J., 2021. "Endogenous forecast switching near the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-169.
    6. George W. Evans & Bruce Mcgough, 2018. "Interest‐Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 939-965, August.
    7. Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) & Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) & Petrova, Diana (Петрова, Диана) & Chaikina, Anastasiia (Чайкина, Анастасия) & Nikanorov, Ivan (Никаноров, Иван), 2018. "Analysis of Approaches to Studying the Problem of Long-Term Stagnation in Modern Economies [Анализ Подходов К Изучению Проблемы Долговременной Стагнации В Современных Экономиках]," Working Papers 031810, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

  6. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Expectations, stagnation and fiscal policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2016, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Salle, Isabelle L., 2023. "What to target? Insights from a lab experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 514-533.
    2. E. Quaghebeur, 2013. "Learning and the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/851, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Learning to Believe in Secular Stagnation," Discussion Papers 2017-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    4. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Raf Wouters, 2024. "Survey Expectations, Adaptive Learning and Inflation Dynamics," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp781, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    5. Lansing, Kevin J., 2021. "Endogenous forecast switching near the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-169.
    6. George W. Evans & Bruce Mcgough, 2018. "Interest‐Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 939-965, August.
    7. Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) & Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) & Petrova, Diana (Петрова, Диана) & Chaikina, Anastasiia (Чайкина, Анастасия) & Nikanorov, Ivan (Никаноров, Иван), 2018. "Analysis of Approaches to Studying the Problem of Long-Term Stagnation in Modern Economies [Анализ Подходов К Изучению Проблемы Долговременной Стагнации В Современных Экономиках]," Working Papers 031810, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

  7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Ramon Marimon, 2015. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Working Papers 14, Barcelona School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis," Staff Reports 198, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria near an Indeterminate Steady State," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Apr 2002.
    3. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Pedro Rui Mazeda Gil, 2009. "Animal Spirits and the Composition of Innovation in a Lab-Equipment R&D Model," FEP Working Papers 336, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    5. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
    6. Arifovic, Jasmina & Evans, George W. & Kostyshyna, Olena, 2020. "Are sunspots learnable? An experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Brüggmann, Daniel, 2020. "Women’s employment, income and divorce in West Germany: a causal approach," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 54(1), pages 1-5.
    9. Jasmina Arifovic, 2019. "Evolution of sunspot like behavior in the agent based economies of bank runs," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 365-389, March.
    10. Dixon, Huw & Pourpourides, Panayiotis M., 2016. "On imperfect competition with occasionally binding cash-in-advance constraints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 72-85.
    11. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2008. "Expectational Stability in Multivariate Models," Faculty Working Papers 06/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    12. Pedro Mazeda Gil, 2010. "Animal Spirits and the Composition of Innovation in a Lab-Equipment R&D Model with Transition," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_040, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.

  8. Jasmina Arifovic & George Evans & Olena Kostyshyna, 2013. "Are Sunspots Learnable? An Experimental Investigation in a Simple General-Equilibrium Model," Staff Working Papers 13-14, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Luba Petersen & Jasmina Arifovic, 2015. "Escaping Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Experimental Evidence," Discussion Papers dp15-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    2. Battiston, Pietro & Harrison, Sharon G., 2024. "Believe it or not: Experimental evidence on sunspot equilibria with social networks," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 223-247.
    3. Konstantinos Georgalos & Indrajit Ray & Sonali SenGupta, 2020. "Nash versus coarse correlation," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(4), pages 1178-1204, December.
    4. Jasmina Arifovic & Janet Hua Jiang, 2014. "Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs," Staff Working Papers 14-12, Bank of Canada.
    5. Siebert, Jan & Yang, Guanzhong, 2017. "Discoordination and miscoordination caused by sunspots in the laboratory," Working Papers on East Asian Studies 114/2017, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of East Asian Studies IN-EAST.
    6. Dietmar Fehr & Frank Heinemann & Aniol Llorente-Saguer, 2013. "The power of sunspots: an experimental analysis," Working Papers 13-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Siebert, Jan & Yang, Guanzhong, 2020. "Coordination problems triggered by sunspots in the laboratory," Ruhr Economic Papers 848, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    9. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2019. "Experiments in macroeconomics: methods and applications," Post-Print halshs-01809937, HAL.
    10. Georgalos, Konstantinos & Ray, Indrajit & Gupta, Sonali Sen, 2019. "Nash vs. Coarse Correlation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2019/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    11. Arifovic, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Salle, I., 2016. "Learning to believe in Simple Equilibria in a Complex OLG Economy - evidence from the lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

  9. Branch, William & Evans, George W & McGough, Bruce, 2012. "Finite Horizon Learning," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-16, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    Cited by:

    1. Evans, George W. & Hommes, Cars & McGough, Bruce & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 44-63.
    2. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    3. Michael Woodford, 2018. "Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite," NBER Working Papers 24692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pratiti Chatterjee & Fabio Milani, 2020. "Perceived Uncertainty Shocks, Excess Optimism-Pessimism, and Learning in the Business Cycle," Working Papers 202101, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    5. Isabelle Salle & Murat Yildizoglu & Martin Zumpe & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2012. "Modelling social learning in an Agent-Based new keynesian macroeconomic model," Post-Print hal-00779045, HAL.
    6. Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
    7. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    8. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    9. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2014. "Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 241-256.

  10. Honkapohja, Seppo & Sargent, Thomas & Evans, George W. & Williams, Noah, 2012. "Bayesian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection," CEPR Discussion Papers 8917, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2023. "Anchored Inflation Expectations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-47, January.
    2. Tortorice, Daniel L, 2018. "The business cycle implications of fluctuating long run expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 266-291.
    3. Fabrizio Coricelli & Zorobabel Bicaba, 2015. "Learning to open up: Capital account liberalizations in the post-Bretton Woods era," Working Papers halshs-01267264, HAL.
    4. Vidakovic, Neven, 2014. "Exchange rate regime and household's choice of debt," MPRA Paper 54219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Audzei, Volha, 2023. "Learning and cross-country correlations in a multi-country DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

  11. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Fiscal policy and learning," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2012, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2013. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Working Paper 13-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "The Consequences of Uncertain Debt Targets," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-18, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    3. E. Quaghebeur, 2013. "Learning and the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/851, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Stephen J. Cole, 2021. "Learning and the Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 157-200, February.
    5. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
    6. Cole, Stephen J., 2016. "The Limits of Central Bank Forward Guidance under Learning," Working Papers and Research 2016-02, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
    7. Alexander D. Gromov, 2017. "The Efficiency of Russian Higher Education Institutions and its Determinants," HSE Working papers WP BRP 40/EDU/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

  12. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2012. "Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    2. Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2013. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Working Paper 13-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Di Pace, Frederico & Mitra, Kaushik & Zhang, Shoujian, 2016. "Adaptive learning and labour market dynamics," Bank of England working papers 633, Bank of England.
    4. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2011. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," MPRA Paper 30625, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    6. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Brecht Boone & Ewoud Quaghebeur, 2017. "Real-Time Parameterized Expectations And The Effects Of Government Spending," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/939, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "The Consequences of Uncertain Debt Targets," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-18, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    9. E. Quaghebeur, 2013. "Learning and the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/851, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2015. "Learnability of an equilibrium with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-74.
    11. Honkapohja, Seppo, 2015. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2015, Bank of Finland.
    12. Honkapohja, Seppo & Turunen-Red, Arja H. & Woodland, Alan D., 2011. "Growth, expectations and tariffs," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2011, Bank of Finland.
    13. Sinitskaya, Ekaterina & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2015. "Macroeconomies as constructively rational games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 152-182.
    14. Gibbs, Christopher G. & Kulish, Mariano, 2017. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 157-174.
    15. Chávez, Ricardo & García, Carlos J., 2016. "Reforma tributaria en fases," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(330), pages .275-310, abril-jun.
    16. Bartholomew Moore, 2016. "The stability of learning prior to an anticipated change in the target inflation rate," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 267-293.
    17. Moore, Bartholomew, 2016. "Anticipated disinflation and recession in the New Keynesian model under learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 49-52.

  13. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Fiscal policy and learning," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2012, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2013. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Working Paper 13-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "The Consequences of Uncertain Debt Targets," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-18, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    3. E. Quaghebeur, 2013. "Learning and the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/851, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Stephen J. Cole, 2021. "Learning and the Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 157-200, February.
    5. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
    6. Cole, Stephen J., 2016. "The Limits of Central Bank Forward Guidance under Learning," Working Papers and Research 2016-02, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
    7. Alexander D. Gromov, 2017. "The Efficiency of Russian Higher Education Institutions and its Determinants," HSE Working papers WP BRP 40/EDU/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

  14. Honkapohja, Seppo & Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W., 2012. "Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Guido Ascari & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Coherence without Rationality at the ZLB," Working Papers 784, DNB.
    2. William A. Barnett & Giovanni Bella & Taniya Ghosh & Paolo Mattana & Beatrice Venturi, 2020. "Shilnikov Chaos, Low Interest Rates, and New Keynesian Macroeconomics," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202001, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2020.
    3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    4. Hommes, C.H. & Lustenhouwer, J., 2016. "Managing Heterogeneous and Unanchored Expectations: A Monetary Policy Analysis," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    5. Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2013. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Working Paper 13-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Magris, Francesco & Onori, Daria, 2024. "Taylor and fiscal rules: When do they stabilize the economy?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 68-89.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Bella, Giovanni & Ghosh, Taniya & Mattana, Paolo & Venturi, Beatrice, 2022. "Is policy causing chaos in the United Kingdom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. James B. Bullard, 2016. "Permazero," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(2).
      • James B. Bullard, 2015. "Permazero," Speech 256, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
      • James Bullard, 2016. "Permazero," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 415-429, Spring/Su.
    9. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    11. Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2019. "Ideologically-charged terminology: austerity, fiscal consolidation, and sustainable governance," CESifo Working Paper Series 7613, CESifo.
    12. He Nie & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2023. "The promises (and perils) of control-contingent forward guidance," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 77-98, July.
    13. Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 19368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal stimulus in expectations-driven liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-687.
    15. Schmidt, Sebastian, 2016. "Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 36-53.
    16. Brecht Boone & Ewoud Quaghebeur, 2017. "Real-Time Parameterized Expectations And The Effects Of Government Spending," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/939, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    17. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
    18. Honkapohja, Seppo, 2015. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2015, Bank of Finland.
    19. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2013. "Do heterogeneous expectations constitute a challenge for policy interaction?," Working Papers Series 2 13-02, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    20. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Learning to Believe in Secular Stagnation," Discussion Papers 2017-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    21. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Matthias Weber, 2015. "Monetary Policy under Behavioral Expectations: Theory and Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-087/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2015. "Comparing Inflation and Price-Level Targeting: The Role of Forward Guidance and Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 27-59, December.
    23. Ravn, Morten & Mertens, Karel, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Jonathan Swarbrick, 2021. "Occasionally Binding Constraints in Large Models: A Review of Solution Methods," Discussion Papers 2021-5, Bank of Canada.
    25. Hommes, C.H. & Lustenhouwer, J., 2015. "Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps under Endogenous Credibility," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    26. Bilbiie, Florin, 2018. "Neo-Fisherian Policies and Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 13334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Lansing, Kevin J., 2021. "Endogenous forecast switching near the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-169.
    28. Bartholomew Moore, 2016. "The stability of learning prior to an anticipated change in the target inflation rate," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 267-293.
    29. Yunjong Eo & Nigel Mcclung, 2025. "Determinacy and E‐Stability with Interest Rate Rules at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 951-979, June.
    30. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal Stimulus In Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 0683, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    31. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    32. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    33. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    34. Piero Ferri & Fabio Tramontana, 2018. "Debt Persistence in a Deflationary Environment: A Regime-Switching Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 421-442, August.
    35. Arifovic, Jasmina & Petersen, Luba, 2017. "Stabilizing expectations at the zero lower bound: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-43.
    36. Rodríguez Arosemena, Nicolás, 2018. "The Dominium Mundi Game and the Case for Artificial Intelligence in Economics and the Law," MPRA Paper 90560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. George W. Evans & Bruce Mcgough, 2018. "Interest‐Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 939-965, August.
    38. William A. Barnett & Giovanni Bella & Taniya Ghosh & Paolo Mattana & Beatrice Venturi, 2021. "Chaos in the UK New Keynesian Macroeconomy," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202119, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2021.
    39. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2018. "Fiscal stimulus in an expectation driven liquidity trap," BERG Working Paper Series 138, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    40. Eo, Yunjong & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland.
    41. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.

  15. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Murray, James, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," MPRA Paper 57409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Paloviita, Maritta & Kinnunen, Helvi, 2011. "Real time analysis of euro area fiscal policies: adjustment to the crisis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2011, Bank of Finland.
    4. Uehara, Takuro, 2013. "Ecological threshold and ecological economic threshold: Implications from an ecological economic model with adaptation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 374-384.
    5. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    6. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," IMK Working Paper 99-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Saxell, Tanja, 2014. "Industrial organization studies on pharmaceutical markets," Research Reports P65, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Inflation puzzles, the Phillips Curve and output expectations: new perspectives from the Euro Zone," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-153, February.
    9. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    10. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hallett, Andrew Hughes, 2011. "The great moderation under the microscope: decomposition of macroeconomic cycles in US and UK aggregate demand," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2011, Bank of Finland.

  16. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Murray, James, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," MPRA Paper 57409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Paloviita, Maritta & Kinnunen, Helvi, 2011. "Real time analysis of euro area fiscal policies: adjustment to the crisis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2011, Bank of Finland.
    4. Uehara, Takuro, 2013. "Ecological threshold and ecological economic threshold: Implications from an ecological economic model with adaptation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 374-384.
    5. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    6. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," IMK Working Paper 99-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Saxell, Tanja, 2014. "Industrial organization studies on pharmaceutical markets," Research Reports P65, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Inflation puzzles, the Phillips Curve and output expectations: new perspectives from the Euro Zone," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-153, February.
    9. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    10. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hallett, Andrew Hughes, 2011. "The great moderation under the microscope: decomposition of macroeconomic cycles in US and UK aggregate demand," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2011, Bank of Finland.

  17. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W., 2011. "Notes on Agents’ Behavioral Rules Under Adaptive Learning and Studies of Monetary Policy," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-04, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    Cited by:

    1. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Firm-specific labor, trend inflation, and equilibrium stability," Research Working Paper RWP 12-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    2. Mele, Antonio & Molnar, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2018. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 22/2018, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    3. Milani, Fabio, 2006. "A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?," MPRA Paper 809, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence," Macroeconomics 0506013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2017. "Transparency, expectations anchoring and inflation target," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 261-273.
    6. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "Trend inflation, sticky prices, and expectational stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 175-187.
    7. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2014. "A pitfall of expectational stability analysis," Research Working Paper RWP 14-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2012. "Learning about monetary policy rules when labor market search and matching frictions matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 523-535.
    9. Muto, Ichiro, 2013. "Productivity growth, transparency, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 329-344.
    10. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
    11. Greta Meggiorini & Fabio Milani, 2021. "Behavioral New Keynesian Models: Learning vs. Cognitive Discounting," CESifo Working Paper Series 9039, CESifo.
    12. Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 680-692.

  18. Evans, George W., 2011. "The Stagnation Regime of the New Keynesian Model and Current US Policy," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-06, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    Cited by:

    1. Spahn, Peter, 2016. "Population growth, saving, interest rates and stagnation: Discussing the Eggertsson-Mehrotra model," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 04-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.

  19. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Liquidity trap and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2012, Bank of Finland.
    2. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2013. "Fiscal foundations of inflation: imperfect knowledge," Staff Reports 649, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, pages 52-67, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Di Pace, Frederico & Mitra, Kaushik & Zhang, Shoujian, 2016. "Adaptive learning and labour market dynamics," Bank of England working papers 633, Bank of England.
    5. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2011. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," MPRA Paper 30625, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bruce Preston, 2013. "Comment on "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 47-58, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    8. Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 19368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. E. Quaghebeur, 2013. "Learning and the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/851, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Honkapohja, Seppo, 2015. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2015, Bank of Finland.
    11. De Grauwe, Paul & Foresti, Pasquale, 2018. "Animal Spirits and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Daniel Choi & Mark Holmes, 2014. "Budget deficits and real interest rates: a regime-switching reflection on Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, January.
    13. Alfred Haug, 2016. "A New Test of Ricardian Equivalence Using the Narrative Record on Tax Changes," Working Papers 1607, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2016.
    14. Caprioli, Francesco, 2015. "Optimal fiscal policy under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 101-124.
    15. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2015. "Comparing Inflation and Price-Level Targeting: The Role of Forward Guidance and Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 27-59, December.
    16. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
    17. Lorenzo Esposito & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2019. "Defaultnomics: Making Sense of the Barro-Ricardo Equivalence in a Financialized World," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_933, Levy Economics Institute.
    18. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers In An Rbc Model With Learning," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 240-283, January.
    19. Divino, José Angelo & Orrillo, Jaime, 2017. "Failure of the Ricardian Equivalence Theory in Economies with Incomplete Markets," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 37(1), May.
    20. Martin Eichenbaum, 2023. "On the limits of rational expectations for policy analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1221-1237, November.
    21. Jose Angelo Divino & Jaime Orrillo, 2022. "Robust effects of a debt-financed tax cut in an economy with incomplete markets," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(1), pages 191-200, February.
    22. Eunji Kim & Yoonhee Ha & Sangheon Kim, 2017. "Public Debt, Corruption and Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-30, March.
    23. Branch, William A. & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2019. "Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    24. Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2013. "E-stability in the stochastic Ramsey model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 407-410.

  20. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2010. "Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-32, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Reiner Franke & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Taking Stock: A Rigorous Modelling Of Animal Spirits In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1152-1182, December.
    2. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2021. "Optimal constrained interest-rate rules under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 287-325.
    3. Carsten Nielsen, 2011. "Price stabilizing, Pareto improving policies," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 459-500, June.
    4. Scheffknecht, Lukas & Geiger, Felix, 2011. "A behavioral macroeconomic model with endogenous boom-bust cycles and leverage dynamcis," FZID Discussion Papers 37-2011, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    5. Knight, John & Satchell, Stephen & Srivastava, Nandini, 2014. "Steady state distributions for models of locally explosive regimes: Existence and econometric implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 281-288.
    6. Brock, William A. & Haslag, Joseph H., 2016. "A tale of two correlations: Evidence and theory regarding the phase shift between the price level and output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 40-57.
    7. Roger Guesnerie & Pedro Jara-Moroni, 2009. "Expectational coordination in simple economic contexts: concepts and analysis with emphasis on strategic substitutabilities," PSE Working Papers halshs-00574957, HAL.
    8. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H., 2010. "The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Elias, Christopher J., 2022. "Adaptive learning with heterogeneous expectations in an estimated medium-scale New Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Hung, Kuo-Che & Ma, Tai, 2017. "The effects of expectations-based monetary policy on international stock markets: An application of heterogeneous agent model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 70-87.
    11. Man-Keung Tang & Mr. Xiangrong Yu, 2011. "Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 2011/209, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Grimaud, Alex, 2023. "Price setting frequency and the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Machado, Vicente da Gama, 2013. "Monetary policy rules, asset prices and adaptive learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 251-258.
    14. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    15. Florian Hartmann & Matthieu Charpe & Peter Flaschel & Roberto Veneziani, 2016. "A Basic Model of Real-Financial Market Interactions with Heterogeneous Opinion Dynamics," IEER Working Papers 104, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, revised 26 May 2016.
    16. Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2015. "Learnability of an equilibrium with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-74.
    17. Akvile Bertasiute & Domenico Massaro & Matthias Weber, 2018. "The behavioral economics of currency unions: Economic integration and monetary policy," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 49, Bank of Lithuania.
    18. Kurz, Mordecai & Piccillo, Giulia & Wu, Howei, 2013. "Modeling diverse expectations in an aggregated New Keynesian Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1403-1433.
    19. Vicente da Gama Machado, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers Series 274, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Flaschel, Peter & Charpe, Matthieu & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño Acosta, Christian & Veneziani, Roberto, 2017. "Macroeconomic and stock market interactions with endogenous aggregate sentiment dynamics," BERG Working Paper Series 125, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    21. William Branch & Bruce McGough, 2011. "Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 395-421, June.
    22. Gáti, Laura, 2022. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations: an endogenous gain learning model," Working Paper Series 2685, European Central Bank.
    23. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2013. "Monetary policy transmission in a model with animal spirits and house price booms and busts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2862-2881.
    24. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9891.
    25. Anna Agliari & Domenico Massaro & Nicolò Pecora & Alessandro Spelta, 2017. "Inflation Targeting, Recursive Inattentiveness, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1587-1619, October.
    26. Markus Demary, 2017. "Yield curve responses to market sentiments and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(2), pages 309-344, July.
    27. Salle, Isabelle L., 2015. "Modeling expectations in agent-based models — An application to central bank's communication and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 130-141.
    28. Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2014. "Towards a consumer sentiment channel of monetary policy," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 91, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    29. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2016. "Internal or external devaluation? What does the EC Consumer Survey tell us about macroeconomic adjustment in the Euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 88-103.
    30. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2007. "Diverse Beliefs and Time Variability of Risk Premia," Discussion Papers 06-044, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    31. Hommes, C.H. & Lustenhouwer, J., 2015. "Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps under Endogenous Credibility," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    32. Adriana Cornea & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2013. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-015/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    33. Joseph Haslag & William Brock, 2014. "On Understanding the Cyclical Behavior of the Price Level and Inflation," Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 01 Jul 2014.
    34. Sergio Santoro, 2017. "Heterogeneity and learning with complete markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 183-211, June.
    35. Volker Wieland, 2012. "Model comparison and robustness: a proposal for policy analysis after the financial crisis," Chapters, in: Robert M. Solow & Jean-Philippe Touffut (ed.), What’s Right with Macroeconomics?, chapter 2, pages 33-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    36. Bonam, Dennis & Goy, Gavin, 2019. "Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 25-42.
    37. John Knight & Stephen Satchell & Nandini Srivastava, 2012. "Steady-State Distributions for Models of Bubbles: their Existence and Econometric Implications," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1208, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    38. Blake LeBaron, 2021. "Microconsistency in Simple Empirical Agent-Based Financial Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 83-101, June.
    39. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Optimal Monetary Policy, and the Merit of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1535-1554, October.
    40. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
    41. Yingying Xu & Zhixin Liu & Xing Zhang, 2017. "Heterogeneous Or Homogeneous Inflation Expectation Formation Models: A Case Study Of Chinese Households And Financial Participants," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(04), pages 859-874, September.
    42. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
    43. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.
    44. Branch, William A. & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2019. "Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.

  21. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2010. "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-33, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    Cited by:

    1. Kuang, Pei, 2014. "A model of housing and credit cycles with imperfect market knowledge," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 419-437.
    2. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. William A. Branch & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2014. "Financial Frictions, the Housing Market, and Unemployment," Working Paper Series 2014-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Berardi, Michele, 2020. "Learning from prices: information aggregation and accumulation in an asset market," MPRA Paper 102139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2011. "Stock market volatility and learning," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121739, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Uribe, Jorge & Fernández, Julián, 2014. "Burbujas financieras y comportamiento reciente de los mercados de acciones en América Latina," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 81, pages 57-90, April.
    7. Caspi, Itamar & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date stamping historical periods of oil price explosivity: 1876–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 582-587.
    8. Anton Nakov & Galo Nuño, 2011. "Learning from experience in the stock market," Working Papers 1132, Banco de España.
    9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    10. Michele Berardi, 2018. "Information aggregation and learning in a dynamic asset pricing model," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 241, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    12. Evans, George W. & Hommes, Cars & McGough, Bruce & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 44-63.
    13. Enders, Zeno & Hakenes, Hendrik Hakenes, 2014. "On the Existence and Prevention of Speculative Bubbles," Working Papers 0567, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    14. Michele Berardi, 2015. "Prices, fundamental values and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 214, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    15. Namun Cho & Tae-Seok Jang, 2019. "Asset Market Volatility and New Keynesian Macroeconomics: A Game-Theoretic Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 245-266, June.
    16. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    17. Andrea Giusto, 2015. "Learning to Agree: A New Perspective on Price Drift," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 276-282.
    18. Adam, Klaus & Beutel, Johannes & Marcet, Albert, 2014. "Stock price booms and expected capital gains," Working Papers 14-12, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    19. Itamar Caspi & Nico Katzke & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Date stamping historical oil price bubbles: 1876 - 2014," Working Papers 20/2014, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    20. Herrera Luis & Vázquez Jesús, 2023. "Interpreting Structural Shocks and Assessing Their Historical Importance," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 375-425, January.
    21. Ikeda, Taro, 2014. "Asymmetric preferences in real-time learning and the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 487-489.
    22. John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2014. "Behavioral Economics and Macroeconomic Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Berardi, Michele, 2021. "Uncertainty, sentiments and time-varying risk premia," MPRA Paper 106922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2013. "High frequency trading and end-of-day price dislocation," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    25. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "Asset pricing with expectation shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-82.
    26. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    27. Juan Carlos Castro Fernández & Juan Carlos Castro Fernández, 2022. "Big Recessions and Slow Recoveries," Documentos de Trabajo UEC 20128, Universidad Externado de Colombia.
    28. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2010. "Recurrent Bubbles," Discussion Paper Series DP2010-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Nov 2010.
    29. Georges, Christophre & Pereira, Javier, 2021. "Market stability with machine learning agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    30. Michele Berardi, 2016. "Endogenous time-varying risk aversion and asset returns," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 581-601, July.
    31. Gáti, Laura, 2022. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations: an endogenous gain learning model," Working Paper Series 2685, European Central Bank.
    32. Sudipto Bhattacharya & Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "A Reconsideration of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 931-973, August.
    33. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in asset pricing: Empirical evidence from the S&P500," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 1-16.
    34. Ortiz, Marco, 2013. "Learning Through the Yield Curve," Working Papers 2013-018, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    35. Branch, William & McGough, Bruce, 2016. "Heterogeneous beliefs and trading inefficiencies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 786-818.
    36. Hommes, Cars H., 2014. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 1(1-2), pages 75-97, January.
    37. Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Rational Speculators, Contrarians and Excess Volatility," MPRA Paper 43490, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Pignataro, Giuseppe & Raggi, Davide & Pancotto, Francesca, 2024. "On the role of fundamentals, private signals, and beauty contests to predict exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 687-705.
    39. Andrew Filardo & Paul Hubert & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-16, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    40. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2018. "Perpetual learning and apparent long memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 343-365.
    41. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2013. "Bubbles, crashes and risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 254-258.
    42. Giusto, Andrea, 2014. "Adaptive learning and distributional dynamics in an incomplete markets model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 317-333.
    43. Andrea Giusto, 2015. "Approximate aggregation revisited: higher moments do matter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(14), pages 1138-1143, September.
    44. LeBaron, Blake, 2012. "Heterogeneous gain learning and the dynamics of asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 424-445.
    45. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2014. "Speculative behaviour and oil price predictability," Discussion Paper Series 2014_09, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2014.
    46. Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Long-run growth uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80.
    47. Kieran McQuinn & Teresa Monteiro & Conor O’Toole, 2021. "House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 25-47, January.
    48. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," IMK Working Paper 99-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    49. Zhang, Tongbin, 2021. "Stock prices and the risk-free rate: An internal rationality approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    50. Schuler, Tobias & Corrado, Luisa, 2019. "Financial cycles, credit bubbles and stabilization policies," Working Paper Series 2336, European Central Bank.
    51. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2011. "Great Moderation or Great Mistake: Can rising confidence in low macro-risk explain the boom in asset prices?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8700, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    52. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhang, Wei & Xiong, Xiong & Wang, Xue & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2021. "The double-edged role of social learning: Flash crash and lower total volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 405-420.
    53. Georges, Christophre, 2015. "Risk preference and stability under learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 105-108.
    54. Eric Gaus & Arunima Sinha, 2015. "Characterizing Investor Expectations for Assets with Varying Risk," Working Papers 15-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    55. Shin, Michael, 2021. "Subjective expectations, experiences, and stock market participation: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 672-689.
    56. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    57. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    58. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2013. "Perpetual learning and stock return predictability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 19-22.
    59. Pei Kuang & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Potential Output Pessimism and Austerity in the European Union," Discussion Papers 22-08, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    60. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti & Christopher L. Gilbert & J. Roderick McCrorie, 2015. "Testing for Mild Explosivity and Bubbles in LME Non-Ferrous Metals Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 763-782, September.
    61. Airaudo, Marco & Cardani, Roberta & Lansing, Kevin J., 2013. "Monetary policy and asset prices with belief-driven fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1453-1478.
    62. Michele Berardi, 2020. "Learning from Prices: Information Aggregation and Accumulation in an Asset Price Model," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2009, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    63. Jonathan Cook, 2017. "Estimating the portion of technical analysts in a market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(41), pages 4127-4137, September.
    64. Moreira, Afonso M. & Martins, Luis F., 2020. "A new mechanism for anticipating price exuberance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 199-221.
    65. Xing, Dun-Zhong & Li, Hai-Feng & Li, Jiang-Cheng & Long, Chao, 2021. "Forecasting price of financial market crash via a new nonlinear potential GARCH model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
    66. Kuang, Pei & Yao, Yao, 2017. "Are rational explosive solutions learnable?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 62-66.
    67. Branch, William A., 2016. "Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-42.
    68. Michele Berardi, 2016. "Herding through learning in an asset pricing model," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 223, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    69. Taro Ikeda, 2017. "Asymmetric Preferences and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1831-1838, December.
    70. Lof, Matthijs, 2013. "Essays on Expectations and the Econometrics of Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 59064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    71. Taro Ikeda, 2016. "Relume: A fractal analysis for the US stock market," Discussion Papers 1637, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    72. Thorsten Lehnert, 2020. "Fear and stock price bubbles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, May.
    73. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
    74. Uribe Gil, Jorge Mario, 2013. "Testing for multiple bubbles with daily data," Documentos de Trabajo 11028, Universidad del Valle, CIDSE.

  22. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2009. "Expectations, deflation traps and macroeconomic policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2009, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Fabrizio Venditti, 2010. "Down the non-linear road from oil to consumer energy prices: no much asymmetry along the way," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 751, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal stimulus in expectations-driven liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-687.
    3. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal Stimulus In Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 0683, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    4. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2018. "Fiscal stimulus in an expectation driven liquidity trap," BERG Working Paper Series 138, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

  23. Evans, George & Bullard, James & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2009. "A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-11, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    Cited by:

    1. Evans, George W. & Hommes, Cars & McGough, Bruce & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 44-63.
    2. Murray, James, 2011. "Learning and judgment shocks in U.S. business cycles," MPRA Paper 29257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    4. Kris De Jaegher, 2016. "Endogenous thresholds and assurance networks in collective action," Rationality and Society, , vol. 28(2), pages 202-252, May.
    5. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Good luck or good policy? An expectational theory of macro volatility switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2755-2770.
    6. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "Asset pricing with expectation shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-82.
    7. Laura Veldkamp & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," Working Papers 06-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    8. Wigniolle, B., 2014. "Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 188-208.
    9. Volha Audzei, 2012. "Efficiency of Central Bank Policy During the Crisis : Role of Expectations in Reinforcing Hoarding Behavior," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp477, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    10. Farmer, Roger & Nourry, Carine & Venditti, Alain, 2013. "The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World," CEPR Discussion Papers 9283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "A heterogeneous agent exchange rate model with speculators and non-speculators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 203-223.
    12. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Staggered updating in an artificial financial market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2809-2825, September.
    13. Cars Hommes, 2017. "From self-fulfilling mistakes to behavioral learning equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-018/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2018. "Perpetual learning and apparent long memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 343-365.
    15. Gene Ambrocio, 2020. "Rational exuberance booms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 263-282, January.
    16. Raouf Boucekkine & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2016. "Introduction to International Financial Markets and Banking Systems Crises," AMSE Working Papers 1824, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    17. Volha Audzei, 2015. "Information Acquisition and Excessive Risk: Impact of Policy Rate and Market Volatility," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp536, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

  24. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2009. "Expectations, deflation traps and macroeconomic policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2009, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Fabrizio Venditti, 2010. "Down the non-linear road from oil to consumer energy prices: no much asymmetry along the way," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 751, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal stimulus in expectations-driven liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-687.
    3. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal Stimulus In Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 0683, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    4. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2018. "Fiscal stimulus in an expectation driven liquidity trap," BERG Working Paper Series 138, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

  25. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Learning and Macroeconomics," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-3, University of Oregon Economics Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Liquidity trap and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2012, Bank of Finland.
    2. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Baranowski, Ryan, 2015. "Adaptive learning and monetary exchange," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Dietrichson, Jens, 2013. "Coordination Incentives, Performance Measurement and Resource Allocation in Public Sector Organizations," Working Papers 2013:26, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    5. Alan Kirman, 2014. "Is it rational to have rational expectations?," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 13(1), pages 29-48, June.
    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    7. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    8. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Baysian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-11, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    9. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Loretta J. Mester, 2016. "Recent Inflation Developments and Challenges for Research and Monetary Policymaking : The 47th Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy, Insel Reichenau, Germany 5-12-2016," Speech 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    12. Audzei, Volha & Slobodyan, Sergey, 2022. "Sparse restricted perceptions equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2017. "Currency Value," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 416-441.
    14. Brecht Boone & Ewoud Quaghebeur, 2017. "Real-Time Parameterized Expectations And The Effects Of Government Spending," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/939, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    15. Karanasos, Menelaos & Paraskevopoulos,Alexandros & Canepa, Alessandra, 2020. "Unified Theory for the Large Family of Time Varying Models with Arma Representations: One Solution Fits All," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202008, University of Turin.
    16. Isabelle Salle & Murat Yildizoglu & Martin Zumpe & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2012. "Modelling social learning in an Agent-Based new keynesian macroeconomic model," Post-Print hal-00779045, HAL.
    17. Kose, M. Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "The Consequences of Uncertain Debt Targets," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-18, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    19. Martin ZUMPE, 2010. "Monetary Policy Rules, Learning and Stability: a Survey of the Recent Literature (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2010-01, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    20. Pavol Povala & Anna Cieslak, 2012. "Understanding bond risk premia," 2012 Meeting Papers 771, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso, 2022. "The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 215-238, November.
    22. Honkapohja, Seppo, 2015. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2015, Bank of Finland.
    23. Honkapohja, Seppo & Turunen-Red, Arja H. & Woodland, Alan D., 2011. "Growth, expectations and tariffs," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2011, Bank of Finland.
    24. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    25. Gáti, Laura, 2022. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations: an endogenous gain learning model," Working Paper Series 2685, European Central Bank.
    26. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "Learning and coordination with dispersed information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-33.
    27. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Learning, optimal monetary delegation and stock prices dynamics," Working Papers of BETA 2017-37, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    28. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2015. "Comparing Inflation and Price-Level Targeting: The Role of Forward Guidance and Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 27-59, December.
    29. Werner Hölzl & Gerhard Schwarz, 2014. "Der WIFO-Konjunkturtest: Methodik und Prognoseeigenschaften," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(12), pages 835-850, December.
    30. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "Learning, robust monetary policy and the merit of precaution," Post-Print hal-03030047, HAL.
    31. Giusto, Andrea, 2014. "Adaptive learning and distributional dynamics in an incomplete markets model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 317-333.
    32. Hommes, C.H. & Lustenhouwer, J., 2015. "Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps under Endogenous Credibility," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    33. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2009. "Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Matteo G. Richiardi, 2015. "The future of agent-based modelling," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 141, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    35. Andrea Giusto, 2015. "Approximate aggregation revisited: higher moments do matter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(14), pages 1138-1143, September.
    36. Fabio Milani & Sung Ho Park, 2019. "Expectations and Macro-Housing Interactions in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from Korea," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 375-402, April.
    37. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    38. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2012. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-48.
    39. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    40. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2010. "Endogenous Persistence in an Estimated DSGE Model under Imperfect Information," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0310, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    41. Audzei, Volha, 2023. "Learning and cross-country correlations in a multi-country DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    42. Kobielarz, Michal, 2018. "The economics of monetary unions," Other publications TiSEM b0293536-68ec-4905-bffd-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    43. Koursaros, Demetris, 2019. "Learning expectations using multi-period forecasts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-25.
    44. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2012. "Imperfect Information, Optimal Monetary Policy and Informational Consistency," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1012, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    45. Miura, Shogo, 2023. "Households’ assets, sentiment shocks and business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    46. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Cost Channel and Inflation Inertia," Working Paper Series 2012:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    47. Doshchyn, Artur & Giommetti, Nicola, 2013. "Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 49617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Poledna, Sebastian & Miess, Michael Gregor & Hommes, Cars & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Economic forecasting with an agent-based model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    49. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.
    50. John Duffy, 2022. "Why macroeconomics needs experimental evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 5-29, January.
    51. Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2022. "Efectos de la comunicación del banco central sobre el desacuerdo en las expectativas de la tasa de política monetaria: evidencias para Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 14(2), pages 375-409, June.
    52. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Rafael Wouters, 2023. "Professional Survey Forecasts and Expectations in DSGE Models," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp766, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    53. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2020. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers 2020-12, Banco de México.
    54. Duffy, John & Shin, Michael, 2024. "Heterogeneous experience and constant-gain learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    55. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    56. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the initialization of adaptive learning algorithms: A review of methods and a new smoothing-based routine," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 175, Economics, The University of Manchester.

  26. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 501, Central Bank of Chile.

    Cited by:

    1. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2017. "Is stock investment contagious among siblings?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1505-1528, June.
    2. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.
    3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0808, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    4. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Stability under Learning: the Endogenous Growth Problem," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp1708, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    5. Woodford, Michael, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Stabilization Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 14, pages 723-828, Elsevier.
    6. Murray, James, 2011. "Learning and judgment shocks in U.S. business cycles," MPRA Paper 29257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Francesca Rondina & Christian Matthes, 2015. "Two-sided Learning in New Keynesian Models: Dynamics, (Lack of) Convergence and the Value of Information," Working Papers 661, Barcelona School of Economics.
    8. Kornivska Valeriya O., 2013. "Modern State of the Russian, Ukrainian and European Markets in the Context of the Parity Financial and Investment Partnership of the Countries," Business Inform, RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE), Kharkiv National University of Economics, issue 8, pages 51-55.
    9. Tim Taylor & Richard Harrison, 2008. "Misperceptions, heterogeneous expectations and macroeconomic dynamics," 2008 Meeting Papers 710, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Chevillon, Guillaume & Massmann, Michael & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2010. "Inference in models with adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 341-351, April.
    11. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Is central bank conservatism desirable under learning ?," Post-Print hal-02167169, HAL.
    12. Nicholas Herro & James Murray, 2013. "Dynamics of Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Impact on the Macroeconomy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 257-270.
    13. Kozicki, Sharon, 2012. "Macro has progressed," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 23-28.
    14. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    15. Fabio Busetti & Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno, 2014. "Deflationary shocks and de-anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 252, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2017. "A Note On Trend Growth And Learning About Monetary Policy Rules In A Two-Block World Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 243-258, January.
    17. Stefano Eusepi, 2008. "Central bank transparency and nonlinear learning dynamics," Staff Reports 342, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Christian Matthes & Francesca Rondina, 2017. "Two-sided Learning and Short-Run Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model of the Economy," Working Papers 1705E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    19. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2017. "Learning can generate long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 1-9.
    20. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2015. "Central bank accountability under adaptive learning," Working Papers of BETA 2015-32, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    21. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    22. Norbert Christopeit & Michael Massmann, 2010. "Consistent Estimation of Structural Parameters in Regression Models with Adaptive Learning," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-077/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    23. Gáti, Laura, 2022. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations: an endogenous gain learning model," Working Paper Series 2685, European Central Bank.
    24. Caprioli, Francesco, 2015. "Optimal fiscal policy under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 101-124.
    25. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
    26. Tokuoka, Kiichi, 2013. "Saving response to unemployment of a sibling," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 58-75.
    27. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    28. Arturo Ormeno, 2009. "Disciplining expectations: adding survey expectations in learning models," 2009 Meeting Papers 1140, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    29. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Expectations, Learning, and the Changing Relationship between Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 080923, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    30. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Local Learning Dynamics," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(57), pages 1-15.
    31. Gabriel DESGRANGES & Stéphane GAUTHIER, 2008. "Stabilizing through Poor Information," THEMA Working Papers 2008-32, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    32. Ichiro Muto, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Learning from the Central Bank's Forecast," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    33. Stefano Eusepi, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and the Liquidity Trap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 373-397, March.
    34. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2014. "Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 241-256.
    35. Xiao, Wei, 2013. "Learning about monetary policy rules when the housing market matters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 500-515.
    36. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Can inflation contract discipline central bankers when agents are learning?," Working Papers of BETA 2017-25, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    37. Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2013. "Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules in a two-block world economy," Kiel Working Papers 1818, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    38. Herro, Nicholas & Murray, James, 2011. "Dynamics of Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Impact on the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 30387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Adam Kot & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," NBP Working Papers 52, Narodowy Bank Polski.

  27. Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," Kiel Working Papers 1341, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Dufrénot & Guillaume A. Khayat, 2017. "Monetary Policy Switching in the Euro Area and Multiple Steady States: An Empirical Investigation," Post-Print hal-01590000, HAL.
    2. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Liquidity trap and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2012, Bank of Finland.
    3. Ashwin, Julian & Beaudry, Paul & Ellison, Martin, 2025. "Neural network learning for nonlinear economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    5. Roc Armenter, 2013. "The perils of nominal targets," Working Papers 14-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Hommes, C.H. & Lustenhouwer, J., 2016. "Managing Heterogeneous and Unanchored Expectations: A Monetary Policy Analysis," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    7. Cordelius Ilgmann & Martin Menner, 2011. "Negative nominal interest rates: history and current proposals," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 383-405, December.
    8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2014. "Managing Self-organization of Expectations through Monetary Policy: a Macro Experiment," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    10. Fabian Eser, 2009. "Optimal Fiscal Stabilisation through Government Spending," Economics Papers 2009-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    11. Arifovic, Jasmina & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2018. "Learning to live in a liquidity trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 120-136.
    12. John C. Williams, 2009. "Heeding Daedalus: Optimal inflation and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2009-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Hess T. Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2011. "Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?," Working Paper Series 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Canzian, Giulia, 2011. "The psychology of inflation, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 660-670.
    15. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
    16. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal stimulus in expectations-driven liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-687.
    17. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Is central bank conservatism desirable under learning ?," Post-Print hal-02167169, HAL.
    18. Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2023. "The Stabilizing Effects of Publishing Strategic Central Bank Projections," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 826-868, April.
    19. Schmidt, Sebastian, 2016. "Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 36-53.
    20. Tiziana Assenza & William Brock & Cars Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def007, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    21. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    22. Ulrich van Suntum & Metin Kaptan & Cordelius Ilgmann, "undated". "Reducing the lower bound on market interest rates," Working Papers 200103, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    23. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    24. James B. Bullard, 2013. "Seven Faces of \\"The Peril\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 613-628.
    25. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
    26. Stefano Eusepi, 2008. "Central bank transparency and nonlinear learning dynamics," Staff Reports 342, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    27. Gilles Dufrénot & Anwar Khayat, 2014. "Monetary Policy Switching in the Euro Area and Multiple Equilibria: An Empirical Investigation," AMSE Working Papers 1408, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Jan 2014.
    28. Marco Airaudo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 171, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    29. Honkapohja, Seppo, 2015. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2015, Bank of Finland.
    30. Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
    31. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    32. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2013. "Do heterogeneous expectations constitute a challenge for policy interaction?," Working Papers Series 2 13-02, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    33. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Learning to Believe in Secular Stagnation," Discussion Papers 2017-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    34. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2023. "Price level targeting under fiscal dominance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    35. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2015. "Comparing Inflation and Price-Level Targeting: The Role of Forward Guidance and Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 27-59, December.
    36. Ravn, Morten & Mertens, Karel, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
    38. George W. Evans, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    39. Hommes, C.H. & Lustenhouwer, J., 2015. "Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps under Endogenous Credibility," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    40. Malisa Djukic & Hasan Hanic, 2012. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the Times of Crisis: Case of Serbia," Book Chapters, in: Paulino Teixeira & António Portugal Duarte & Srdjan Redzepagic & Dejan Eric (ed.), European Integration Process in Western Balkan Countries, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 296-309, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    41. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2009. "Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Bilbiie, Florin, 2018. "Neo-Fisherian Policies and Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 13334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Jasmina Arifovic & Alex Grimaud & Isabelle Salle & Gauthier Vermandel, 2024. "Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound," Post-Print hal-04502663, HAL.
    44. Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2017. "The Stabilizing Role of Forward Guidance: A Macro Experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168063, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    45. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    46. Roc Armenter, 2014. "The Perils of Nominal Targets," 2014 Meeting Papers 428, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    47. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal Stimulus In Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 0683, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    48. Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2013. "Liquidity Trap and the Conditional Policy Commitment: An Analysis under Adaptive Learning," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, June.
    49. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    50. Braun, R Anton & Koerber, Lena & Waki, Yuichiro, 2015. "Some Unpleasant Properties of Loglinearized Solutions When the Nominal Rate is Zero," Bank of England working papers 553, Bank of England.
    51. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Monetary-fiscal interactions under price level targeting," Papers 2010.14979, arXiv.org.
    52. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    53. Gelfer, Sacha, 2020. "The effects of professional forecast dissemination on macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 131-156.
    54. Siddhartha Chattopadhyay & Taniya Ghosh, 2019. "Taylor rule implementation of the Optimal policy at the zero lower bound: Does the cost channel matter?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    55. Arifovic, Jasmina & Petersen, Luba, 2017. "Stabilizing expectations at the zero lower bound: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-43.
    56. Rodríguez Arosemena, Nicolás, 2018. "The Dominium Mundi Game and the Case for Artificial Intelligence in Economics and the Law," MPRA Paper 90560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Nigel Grimwade & David G. Mayes & Jiao Wang, 2011. "Estimating the Effects of Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    58. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Mr. Marco Airaudo, 2012. "Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 2012/121, International Monetary Fund.
    59. Tolga Özden, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 714, DNB.
    60. Gobbi, Lucio & Mazzocchi, Ronny & Tamborini, Roberto, 2019. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the “new normal”," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    61. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2018. "Fiscal stimulus in an expectation driven liquidity trap," BERG Working Paper Series 138, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    62. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.
    63. Ms. Katerina Smídková & Viktor Kotlán & David Navrátil & Mr. Aleš Bulíř, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Communication: It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports," IMF Working Papers 2008/234, International Monetary Fund.
    64. Waters, George A., 2022. "The many faces of the taylor rule for advanced undergraduate macroeconomics," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

  28. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Robust learning stability with operational monetary policy rules," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 31/2007, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2011. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," MPRA Paper 30625, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 13259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jaqueson Kingeski Galimberti, 2019. "An approximation of the distribution of learning estimates in macroeconomic models," KOF Working papers 19-453, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2017. "On the initialization of adaptive learning in macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 26-53.
    6. Eric Gaus, 2013. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 439-453, October.
    7. George Waters, 2017. "Nominal GDP targeting under learning," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 153-159, January.
    8. Eric Gaus, 2012. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 13-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2012.
    9. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.

  29. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2007. "Representations and Sunspot Stability," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2007-1, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 28 Aug 2008.

    Cited by:

    1. Evans, George W & McGough, Bruce, 2018. "Equilibrium selection, observability and backward-stable solutions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Good luck or good policy? An expectational theory of macro volatility switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2755-2770.
    3. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Online Appendix to "Code and data files for "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?"," Online Appendices 22-197, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    4. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Heterogeneous sunspots solutions under learning and replicator dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 160, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    6. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.
    7. Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2019. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2019, Bank of Finland.
    8. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

  30. James B. Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "Monetary policy, judgment and near-rational exuberance," Working Papers 2007-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Cole, Stephen J. & Milani, Fabio, 2019. "The Misspecification Of Expectations In New Keynesian Models: A Dsge-Var Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 974-1007, April.
    2. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Murray, James, 2011. "Learning and judgment shocks in U.S. business cycles," MPRA Paper 29257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    5. Stefania D'Amico & Thomas B. King, 2015. "What Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Do?," Working Paper Series WP-2015-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
    7. Evans, David & Li, Jungang & McGough, Bruce, 2023. "Local rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 216-236.
    8. Mele, Antonio & Molnar, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2018. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 22/2018, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    9. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Good luck or good policy? An expectational theory of macro volatility switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2755-2770.
    10. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "Asset pricing with expectation shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-82.
    11. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Sentiment and the U.S. business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 289-311.
    12. Hommes, C.H. & Kiseleva, T. & Kuznetsov, Y. & Verbic, M., 2009. "Is more memory in evolutionary selection (de)stabilizing?," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    13. Adam, Klaus, 2009. "Monetary policy and aggregate volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 1-18.
    14. Georges, Christophre & Pereira, Javier, 2021. "Market stability with machine learning agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "A heterogeneous agent exchange rate model with speculators and non-speculators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 203-223.
    16. Cars Hommes, 2017. "From self-fulfilling mistakes to behavioral learning equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-018/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Zanetti Chini, Emilio, 2025. "Judgment can spur long memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    18. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    19. Bullard, James & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2010. "A Model Of Near-Rational Exuberance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 166-188, April.
    20. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    21. Gelfer, Sacha, 2020. "The effects of professional forecast dissemination on macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 131-156.
    22. Pei Kuang, 2019. "New Tests of Expectation Formation with Applications to Asset Pricing Models," 2019 Meeting Papers 187, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Equilibrium stability in a nonlinear cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    24. Pei Kuang & Li Tang & Renbin Zhang & Tongbin Zhang, 2025. "Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? A long-run perspective," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(2), pages 657-685, March.
    25. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2016. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria, Persistence Amplification & Monetary Policy," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    26. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    27. Pei Kuang & Renbin Zhang & Tongbin Zhang, 2019. "New Tests of Expectation Formation with Applications to Asset Pricing Models," Discussion Papers 19-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    28. Kuang, Pei & Tang, Li & Zhang, Renbin & Zhang, Tongbin, 2022. "Forecast disagreement about long-run macroeconomic relationships," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 371-387.

  31. Evans, G.W. & Guse, E. & Honkapohja, S, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0732, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Dufrénot & Guillaume A. Khayat, 2017. "Monetary Policy Switching in the Euro Area and Multiple Steady States: An Empirical Investigation," Post-Print hal-01590000, HAL.
    2. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Liquidity trap and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2012, Bank of Finland.
    3. Ashwin, Julian & Beaudry, Paul & Ellison, Martin, 2025. "Neural network learning for nonlinear economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    5. Roc Armenter, 2013. "The perils of nominal targets," Working Papers 14-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Hommes, C.H. & Lustenhouwer, J., 2016. "Managing Heterogeneous and Unanchored Expectations: A Monetary Policy Analysis," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    7. Cordelius Ilgmann & Martin Menner, 2011. "Negative nominal interest rates: history and current proposals," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 383-405, December.
    8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2014. "Managing Self-organization of Expectations through Monetary Policy: a Macro Experiment," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    10. Fabian Eser, 2009. "Optimal Fiscal Stabilisation through Government Spending," Economics Papers 2009-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    11. Arifovic, Jasmina & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2018. "Learning to live in a liquidity trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 120-136.
    12. John C. Williams, 2009. "Heeding Daedalus: Optimal inflation and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2009-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Hess T. Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2011. "Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?," Working Paper Series 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Canzian, Giulia, 2011. "The psychology of inflation, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 660-670.
    15. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
    16. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal stimulus in expectations-driven liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-687.
    17. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Is central bank conservatism desirable under learning ?," Post-Print hal-02167169, HAL.
    18. Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2023. "The Stabilizing Effects of Publishing Strategic Central Bank Projections," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 826-868, April.
    19. Schmidt, Sebastian, 2016. "Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 36-53.
    20. Tiziana Assenza & William Brock & Cars Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def007, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    21. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    22. Ulrich van Suntum & Metin Kaptan & Cordelius Ilgmann, "undated". "Reducing the lower bound on market interest rates," Working Papers 200103, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    23. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    24. James B. Bullard, 2013. "Seven Faces of \\"The Peril\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 613-628.
    25. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
    26. Stefano Eusepi, 2008. "Central bank transparency and nonlinear learning dynamics," Staff Reports 342, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    27. Gilles Dufrénot & Anwar Khayat, 2014. "Monetary Policy Switching in the Euro Area and Multiple Equilibria: An Empirical Investigation," AMSE Working Papers 1408, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Jan 2014.
    28. Marco Airaudo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 171, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    29. Honkapohja, Seppo, 2015. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2015, Bank of Finland.
    30. Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
    31. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    32. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2013. "Do heterogeneous expectations constitute a challenge for policy interaction?," Working Papers Series 2 13-02, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    33. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Learning to Believe in Secular Stagnation," Discussion Papers 2017-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    34. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2023. "Price level targeting under fiscal dominance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    35. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2015. "Comparing Inflation and Price-Level Targeting: The Role of Forward Guidance and Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 27-59, December.
    36. Ravn, Morten & Mertens, Karel, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
    38. George W. Evans, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    39. Hommes, C.H. & Lustenhouwer, J., 2015. "Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps under Endogenous Credibility," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    40. Malisa Djukic & Hasan Hanic, 2012. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the Times of Crisis: Case of Serbia," Book Chapters, in: Paulino Teixeira & António Portugal Duarte & Srdjan Redzepagic & Dejan Eric (ed.), European Integration Process in Western Balkan Countries, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 296-309, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    41. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2009. "Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Bilbiie, Florin, 2018. "Neo-Fisherian Policies and Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 13334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Jasmina Arifovic & Alex Grimaud & Isabelle Salle & Gauthier Vermandel, 2024. "Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound," Post-Print hal-04502663, HAL.
    44. Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2017. "The Stabilizing Role of Forward Guidance: A Macro Experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168063, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    45. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    46. Roc Armenter, 2014. "The Perils of Nominal Targets," 2014 Meeting Papers 428, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    47. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal Stimulus In Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 0683, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    48. Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2013. "Liquidity Trap and the Conditional Policy Commitment: An Analysis under Adaptive Learning," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, June.
    49. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    50. Braun, R Anton & Koerber, Lena & Waki, Yuichiro, 2015. "Some Unpleasant Properties of Loglinearized Solutions When the Nominal Rate is Zero," Bank of England working papers 553, Bank of England.
    51. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Monetary-fiscal interactions under price level targeting," Papers 2010.14979, arXiv.org.
    52. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    53. Gelfer, Sacha, 2020. "The effects of professional forecast dissemination on macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 131-156.
    54. Siddhartha Chattopadhyay & Taniya Ghosh, 2019. "Taylor rule implementation of the Optimal policy at the zero lower bound: Does the cost channel matter?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    55. Arifovic, Jasmina & Petersen, Luba, 2017. "Stabilizing expectations at the zero lower bound: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-43.
    56. Rodríguez Arosemena, Nicolás, 2018. "The Dominium Mundi Game and the Case for Artificial Intelligence in Economics and the Law," MPRA Paper 90560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Nigel Grimwade & David G. Mayes & Jiao Wang, 2011. "Estimating the Effects of Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    58. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Mr. Marco Airaudo, 2012. "Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 2012/121, International Monetary Fund.
    59. Tolga Özden, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 714, DNB.
    60. Gobbi, Lucio & Mazzocchi, Ronny & Tamborini, Roberto, 2019. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the “new normal”," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    61. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2018. "Fiscal stimulus in an expectation driven liquidity trap," BERG Working Paper Series 138, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    62. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.
    63. Ms. Katerina Smídková & Viktor Kotlán & David Navrátil & Mr. Aleš Bulíř, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Communication: It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports," IMF Working Papers 2008/234, International Monetary Fund.
    64. Waters, George A., 2022. "The many faces of the taylor rule for advanced undergraduate macroeconomics," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

  32. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Robust learning stability with operational monetary policy rules," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 31/2007, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2011. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," MPRA Paper 30625, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 13259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jaqueson Kingeski Galimberti, 2019. "An approximation of the distribution of learning estimates in macroeconomic models," KOF Working papers 19-453, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2017. "On the initialization of adaptive learning in macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 26-53.
    6. Eric Gaus, 2013. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 439-453, October.
    7. George Waters, 2017. "Nominal GDP targeting under learning," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 153-159, January.
    8. Eric Gaus, 2012. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 13-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2012.
    9. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.

  33. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Mitra, K., 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0705, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    Cited by:

    1. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Liquidity trap and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2012, Bank of Finland.
    2. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Evans, George & Gibbs, Christopher & McGough, Bruce, 2021. "A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast," Working Papers 2021-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    5. Branch, William & Evans, George W & McGough, Bruce, 2012. "Finite Horizon Learning," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-16, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2011. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," MPRA Paper 30625, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    9. Mariana Garcia-Schmidt & Michael Woodford, 2015. "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis," Working Papers Series 18, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    10. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Bernardo X. Fernandez & Jim Malley, 2011. "The Distributional Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms in General Equilibrium," CESifo Working Paper Series 3504, CESifo.
    13. Stephen J. Cole & Fabio Milani, 2020. "Heterogeneity in Individual Expectations, Sentiment, and Constant-Gain Learning," CESifo Working Paper Series 8343, CESifo.
    14. Brecht Boone & Ewoud Quaghebeur, 2017. "Real-Time Parameterized Expectations And The Effects Of Government Spending," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/939, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    15. Isabelle Salle & Murat Yildizoglu & Martin Zumpe & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2012. "Modelling social learning in an Agent-Based new keynesian macroeconomic model," Post-Print hal-00779045, HAL.
    16. E. Quaghebeur, 2013. "Learning and the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/851, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    17. De Grauwe, Paul & Foresti, Pasquale, 2018. "Animal Spirits and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Honkapohja, Seppo & Turunen-Red, Arja H. & Woodland, Alan D., 2011. "Growth, expectations and tariffs," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2011, Bank of Finland.
    19. Gáti, Laura, 2022. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations: an endogenous gain learning model," Working Paper Series 2685, European Central Bank.
    20. Michele Berardi, 2018. "Discrete beliefs space and equilibrium: a cautionary note," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 242, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    21. Stephen J. Cole, 2021. "Learning and the Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 157-200, February.
    22. Caprioli, Francesco, 2015. "Optimal fiscal policy under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 101-124.
    23. Gibbs, Christopher G. & Kulish, Mariano, 2017. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 157-174.
    24. Michele Berardi, 2015. "Expectations formation under adaptive learning and evolutionary dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 206, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    25. George W. Evans, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    26. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
    27. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2009. "Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Bartholomew Moore, 2016. "The stability of learning prior to an anticipated change in the target inflation rate," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 267-293.
    29. Han, Zhao, 2021. "Low-frequency fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 639-657.
    30. Cole, Stephen J., 2016. "The Limits of Central Bank Forward Guidance under Learning," Working Papers and Research 2016-02, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
    31. Fujiwara, Ippei & Waki, Yuichiro, 2020. "Fiscal forward guidance: A case for selective transparency," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 236-248.
    32. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers In An Rbc Model With Learning," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 240-283, January.
    33. Sinha, Arunima, 2015. "Government debt, learning and the term structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 268-289.
    34. Branch, William A. & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2019. "Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    35. Moore, Bartholomew, 2016. "Anticipated disinflation and recession in the New Keynesian model under learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 49-52.

  34. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2006. "Implementing Optimal Monetary Policy in New-Keynesian Models with Inertia," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-5, University of Oregon Economics Department.

    Cited by:

    1. George Waters, 2011. "Dangers of commitment under rational expectations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 371-381, October.
    2. Holden, Tom D., 2024. "Robust Real Rate Rules," EconStor Preprints 279481, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2024.
    3. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    4. McGough, Bruce & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2013. "Expectational stability of sunspot equilibria in non-convex economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1126-1141.

  35. William A. Branch & John B. Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2006. "Adaptive learning, endogenous inattention, and changes in monetary policy," Working Papers (Old Series) 0610, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Cone, Thomas E., 2008. "Optimal information acquisition and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1370-1389, December.

  36. George W. Evans & Avik Chakraborty, 2006. "Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Aug 2006.

    Cited by:

    1. cyril Dell'Eva & Eric Girardin & Patrick Pintus, 2020. "Monetary Policies and Destabilizing Carry Trades under Adaptive Learning," AMSE Working Papers 2022, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    2. Vikram Kumar, 2014. "Anticipated Liquidity Shock and Financial Market Equilibrium," Working Papers 14-08, Davidson College, Department of Economics.
    3. Ken Miyajima, 2013. "Foreign exchange intervention and expectation in emerging economies," BIS Working Papers 414, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. de Truchis, Gilles & Dell’Eva, Cyril & Keddad, Benjamin, 2017. "On exchange rate comovements: New evidence from a Taylor rule fundamentals model with adaptive learning," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 82-98.
    5. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2011. "Stock market volatility and learning," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121739, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2015. "Does data frequency matter for the impact of forward premium on spot exchange rate?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 45-53.
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2020. "Predicting exchange rate returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    8. Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Pippenger, John, 2018. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt1778z416, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    10. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2017. "Gresham's Law of Model Averaging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3589-3616, November.
    11. Pippenger, John E, 2010. "The Solution to the Forward-Bias and Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6br3599r, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    12. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
    13. Carmen Gloria Silva, 2010. "Forward premium puzzle and term structure of interest rates: the case of New Zealand," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 570, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Cosmin Ilut, 2012. "Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 33-65, July.
    15. Neslihan Topbas, 2014. "Tests of Rationality in Turkish Foreign Exchange Market," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(2), pages 65-78.
    16. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    17. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2020. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Karabiyik, Hande & Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh, 2016. "On the estimation and testing of predictive panel regressions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 115-125.
    19. Pippenger, John, 2017. "Forward Bias, The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2ff194s2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    20. Kevin J. Lansing & Jun Ma, 2014. "Explaining Exchange Rate Anomalies in a Model with Taylor-Rule Fundamentals and Consistent Expectations," Working Paper Series 2014-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    21. Moran, Kevin & Nono, Simplice Aimé, 2018. "Gradual learning about shocks and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 79-100.
    22. De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013. "Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
    23. Eleni Iliopulos & Erica Perego & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2018. "International business cycles: Information matters," THEMA Working Papers 2018-13, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    24. Nath, Golaka, 2013. "The Spot Forward Exchange Rate Relation in Indian Foreign Exchange Market - An Analysis," MPRA Paper 51591, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Katarzyna Czech, 2020. "Speculative trading and its effect on the forward premium puzzle: new evidence from Japanese yen market," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(2), pages 167-188.
    26. Pippenger, John, 2011. "A Complete Solution To The Forward-Bias Puzzle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt5gq9z4j0, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    27. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    28. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2018. "Perpetual learning and apparent long memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 343-365.
    29. Patrick A. Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2013. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," AMSE Working Papers 1333, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 05 Jun 2013.
    30. Wajid Shakeel Ahmed & Shoaib Khattak & Ijlal Ahmed, 2023. "Do forward premium rates predict the spot rates? Comparison of developed and emerging economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2178-2187, April.
    31. Arunima Sinha, 2016. "Learning and the Yield Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 513-547, March.
    32. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2011. "Learning generates Long Memory," ESSEC Working Papers WP1113, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    33. Spronk, Richard & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Carry trade and foreign exchange rate puzzles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 17-31.
    34. Pippenger, John, 2018. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity and Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2cm6p186, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    35. Matos, Paulo & Beviláqua, Giovanni & Filho, Jaime, 2012. "Previsão do câmbio real-dólar sob um arcabouço de apreçamento de ativos," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 66(3), October.
    36. Mantzura, Ariel & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2019. "Predicting foreign investors’ carry trade activity in the Israeli FX market using a time-varying currency risk premium approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 438-457.
    37. Gilles de Truchis & Florent Dubois, 2014. "Unbalanced Fractional Cointegration and the No-Arbitrage Condition on Commodity Markets," AMSE Working Papers 1445, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    38. Pintus, P. A. & Suda, J., 2013. "Learning Leverage Shocks and the Great Recession," Working papers 440, Banque de France.
    39. Pippenger, John, 2009. "The Forward-Bias Puzzle: A Solution Based on Covered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt4dd1075r, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    40. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2016. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge in a Small Open Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 28, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    41. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2012. "Model Uncertainty And Exchange Rate Volatility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 815-844, August.
    42. Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús & Lafuente Luengo, Juan Ángel, 2012. "Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 12960, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    43. Qian Zhang & Kuo-Jui Wu & Ming-Lang Tseng, 2019. "Exploring Carry Trade and Exchange Rate toward Sustainable Financial Resources: An application of the Artificial Intelligence UKF Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    44. Cho, Dooyeon & Chun, Sungju, 2019. "Can structural changes in the persistence of the forward premium explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 225-235.
    45. Reed, Jason R., 2019. "The forward premium puzzle and Markov-switching adaptive learning," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-17.
    46. Ahmad, Rubi & Rhee, S. Ghon & Wong, Yuen Meng, 2012. "Foreign exchange market efficiency under recent crises: Asia-Pacific focus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1574-1592.
    47. Pippenger, John E, 2009. "The Forward-Bias Puzzle: A Solution Based on Covered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt05d0t24b, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    48. Young Se Kim & Gwi Hwan Seol, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited: The Euro–US Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 360-378, July.
    49. Pippenger, John, 2011. "The solution to the forward-bias puzzle," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 296-304, April.
    50. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2011. "Modeling Exchange Rates with Incomplete Information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 11.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    51. Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.

  37. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2005. "Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 31 May 2006.

    Cited by:

    1. Suleyman Basak & Georgy Chabakauri, 2011. "Dynamic Hedging in Incomplete Markets: A Simple Solution," FMG Discussion Papers dp680, Financial Markets Group.
    2. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2006. "Robustifying learnability," Working Paper Series 593, European Central Bank.
    3. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2021. "Optimal constrained interest-rate rules under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 287-325.
    4. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. George Waters, 2011. "Dangers of commitment under rational expectations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 371-381, October.
    6. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    7. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    8. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2012. "Learning about monetary policy rules when labor market search and matching frictions matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 523-535.
    9. George Waters, 2017. "Nominal GDP targeting under learning," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 153-159, January.
    10. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2006. "Implementing Optimal Monetary Policy in New-Keynesian Models with Inertia," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-5, University of Oregon Economics Department.

  38. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-21, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 26 Oct 2006.

    Cited by:

    1. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dave, Chetan & Malik, Samreen, 2017. "A tale of fat tails," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 293-317.
    3. Waters, George A., 2009. "Chaos in the cobweb model with a new learning dynamic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1201-1216, June.
    4. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2011. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," MPRA Paper 30625, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kim, Young Se, 2009. "Exchange rates and fundamentals under adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 843-863, April.
    7. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
    8. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    9. Kenneth Kasa, 2007. "Learning and Model Validation," 2007 Meeting Papers 548, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. George W. Evans & William A.Branch, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-4, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    11. V. Lewis & A. Markiewicz, 2009. "Model Misspecification, Learning and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/563, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. Evans, David & Li, Jungang & McGough, Bruce, 2023. "Local rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 216-236.
    13. Fuster, Andreas & Hebert, Benjamin Michael & Laibson, David I., 2012. "Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations," Scholarly Articles 10139283, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    14. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Forecast combination, non-linear dynamics, and the macroeconomy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(3), pages 653-686, March.
    15. Tortorice, Daniel L, 2018. "The business cycle implications of fluctuating long run expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 266-291.
    16. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Good luck or good policy? An expectational theory of macro volatility switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2755-2770.
    17. Bao, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2010. "Individual Expectations, Limited Rationality and Aggregate Outcomes," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    18. Calvert Jump, Robert & Hommes, Cars & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Learning, heterogeneity, and complexity in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 446-470.
    19. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2013. "Biased Bayesian learning with an application to the risk-free rate puzzle," Working Papers 201366, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Stephen J. Cole & Fabio Milani, 2020. "Heterogeneity in Individual Expectations, Sentiment, and Constant-Gain Learning," CESifo Working Paper Series 8343, CESifo.
    21. Audzei, Volha & Slobodyan, Sergey, 2022. "Sparse restricted perceptions equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    22. Brecht Boone & Ewoud Quaghebeur, 2017. "Real-Time Parameterized Expectations And The Effects Of Government Spending," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/939, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    23. Parke, William R. & Waters, George A., 2014. "On The Evolutionary Stability Of Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(7), pages 1581-1606, October.
    24. Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2015. "Learnability of an equilibrium with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-74.
    25. De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013. "Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
    26. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9891.
    27. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June.
    28. Pfajfar, D., 2012. "Formation of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations," Other publications TiSEM f256da5c-c711-49c8-bd12-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    29. Cone, Thomas E., 2008. "Optimal information acquisition and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1370-1389, December.
    30. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Blommestein, Hans J. & Qian, Zongxin, 2012. "Animal Spirits in the Euro Area Sovereign CDS Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 9092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "A heterogeneous agent exchange rate model with speculators and non-speculators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 203-223.
    32. De Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-117.
    33. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
    34. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: Learning and predictor choice dynamics," Post-Print hal-00796301, HAL.
    35. Pei Kuang, 2014. "Learning Dynamics with Data (Quasi-) Differencing," Discussion Papers 15-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    36. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2012. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-48.
    37. Greta Meggiorini & Fabio Milani, 2021. "Behavioral New Keynesian Models: Learning vs. Cognitive Discounting," CESifo Working Paper Series 9039, CESifo.
    38. Jasmina Arifovic & Herbert Dawid & Christophe Deissenberg & Olena Kostyshyna, 2008. "Learning Benevolent Leadership in a Heterogenous Agents Economy," Working Papers halshs-00339761, HAL.
    39. Audzei, Volha, 2023. "Learning and cross-country correlations in a multi-country DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    40. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2949, CESifo.
    41. Eran Guse & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2022. "Communication and Learning: The Bilateral Information Transmission in the Cobweb Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 693-723, August.
    42. Cone, Thomas E., 2022. "Learning with unobserved regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    43. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
    44. Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015. "Macroprudential policy and forecasting using Hybrid DSGE models with financial frictions and State space Markov-Switching TVP-VARs," Open Access publications 10197/7333, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    45. Fabio Milani, 2007. "Learning and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 070802, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    46. Andrea Eross & Andrew Urquhart & Simon Wolfe, 2019. "Investigating risk contagion initiated by endogenous liquidity shocks: evidence from the US and eurozone interbank markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 35-53, January.
    47. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2012. "Model Uncertainty And Exchange Rate Volatility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 815-844, August.
    48. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
    49. Berardi, Michele, 2009. "Heterogeneous expectations, sunspot equilibria and their fragility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 276-279, December.
    50. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    51. Zhu, Jiahua & Bao, Te & Chia, Wai Mun, 2021. "Evolutionary selection of forecasting and quantity decision rules in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 363-404.

  39. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.

    Cited by:

    1. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Working Papers 2014-235, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Learning, Expectations Formation, and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-3, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    3. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01638220, HAL.
    5. de Truchis, Gilles & Dell’Eva, Cyril & Keddad, Benjamin, 2017. "On exchange rate comovements: New evidence from a Taylor rule fundamentals model with adaptive learning," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 82-98.
    6. Alistair DIEPPE & Alberto GONZÁLEZ PANDIELLA & Stephen HALL & Alpo WILLMAN, 2010. "MEMBER: Multi-Country Euro Area Model with Boundedly Estimated Rationality," EcoMod2010 259600046, EcoMod.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2017. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 23304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2017. "Empirical calibration of adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 219-237.
    9. Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Learning, Endogenous Indexation and Disinflation in the New-Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, September.
    11. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wei, Min, 2012. "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 239-254.
    12. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0808, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    13. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Kim, Young Se, 2009. "Exchange rates and fundamentals under adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 843-863, April.
    15. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.
    16. Kuang, Pei, 2016. "A Note On Learning In A Credit Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 845-855, April.
    17. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
    18. V. Lewis & A. Markiewicz, 2009. "Model Misspecification, Learning and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/563, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    19. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
    20. Carlos Huertas Campos & Eliana González Molano & Cristhian Ruiz Cardozo, 2015. "La formación de expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 880, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    22. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
    23. Evans, David & Li, Jungang & McGough, Bruce, 2023. "Local rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 216-236.
    24. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 8891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. George W. Evans & Avik Chakraborty, 2006. "Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Aug 2006.
    27. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Mitra, K., 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0705, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    28. Ricardo Nunes, 2009. "On the Epidemiological Microfoundations of Sticky Information," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 643-657, October.
    29. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
    30. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    31. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Misspecification and Expectations Correction in New Keynesian DSGE Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 623-649, October.
    32. Yu‐chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2008. "Adaptive Learning And Monetary Policy In An Open Economy: Lessons From Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 405-430, October.
    33. Ikeda, Taro, 2014. "Asymmetric preferences in real-time learning and the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 487-489.
    34. Fabio Milani, 2006. "The Evolution of the Fed's Inflation Target in an Estimated Model under RE and Learning," Working Papers 060704, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    35. Mele, Antonio & Molnar, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2018. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 22/2018, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    36. Milani, Fabio, 2006. "A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?," MPRA Paper 809, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Aguilar, Pablo & Vázquez, Jesús, 2021. "An Estimated Dsge Model With Learning Based On Term Structure Information," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(7), pages 1635-1665, October.
    38. Tortorice, Daniel L, 2018. "The business cycle implications of fluctuating long run expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 266-291.
    39. Ilek, Alex, 2021. "Are monetary surprises effective? The view of professional forecasters in Israel," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 516-530.
    40. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-24.
    41. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "Asset pricing with expectation shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-82.
    42. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Sentiment and the U.S. business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 289-311.
    43. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    44. Stephen J. Cole & Fabio Milani, 2020. "Heterogeneity in Individual Expectations, Sentiment, and Constant-Gain Learning," CESifo Working Paper Series 8343, CESifo.
    45. Audzei, Volha & Slobodyan, Sergey, 2022. "Sparse restricted perceptions equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    46. Brecht Boone & Ewoud Quaghebeur, 2017. "Real-Time Parameterized Expectations And The Effects Of Government Spending," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/939, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    47. Jan-Erik Antipin & Farid Jimmy Boumediene & Pär Österholm, 2014. "Forecasting Inflation Using Constant Gain Least Squares," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 2-15, June.
    48. Guerrazzi, Marco, 2011. "The animal spirits hypothesis and the Benhabib-Farmer condition for indeterminacy," MPRA Paper 30673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0508019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Arturo Ormeño, 2011. "Using Survey Data on Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 3552, CESifo.
    51. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Short-run price forecast performance of individual and composite models for 496 corn cash markets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(14), pages 2593-2620, October.
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    53. Piero Ferri & Anna Variato, 2010. "Uncertainty and Learning in Stochastic Macro Models," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 16(3), pages 297-310, August.
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    83. Piero Ferri, 2011. "Macroeconomics of Growth Cycles and Financial Instability," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14260.
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    87. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    88. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Working Papers hal-04141348, HAL.
    89. M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2008. "Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability," CESifo Working Paper Series 2293, CESifo.
    90. Anna Borucka, 2023. "Seasonal Methods of Demand Forecasting in the Supply Chain as Support for the Company’s Sustainable Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
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    92. Bonam, Dennis & Goy, Gavin, 2019. "Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 25-42.
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    95. Ormeno, Arturo & Molnar, Krisztina, 2014. "Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 20/2014, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    96. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Victor Bystrov, 2022. "The Evolution of Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics: The Case of Sweden," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 67-83.
    97. Antipin, Jan-Erik & Boumediene, Farid Jimmy & Österholm, Pär, 2013. "On the Usefulness of Constant Gain Least Squares when Forecasting the Unemployment Rate," Working Papers 129, National Institute of Economic Research.
    98. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2949, CESifo.
    99. Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2015. "The role of term structure in an estimated DSGE model with learning," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2015007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    100. Koursaros, Demetris, 2019. "Learning expectations using multi-period forecasts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-25.
    101. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers In An Rbc Model With Learning," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 240-283, January.
    102. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    103. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2013. "Perpetual learning and stock return predictability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 19-22.
    104. Gelfer, Sacha, 2020. "The effects of professional forecast dissemination on macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 131-156.
    105. Borup, Daniel, 2019. "Asset pricing model uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 166-189.
    106. Jouchi Nakajima & Yuki Teranishi, 2009. "The Evolution of Loan Rate Stickiness Across the Euro Area," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    107. Fabio Milani, 2007. "Learning and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 070802, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    108. Pei Kuang & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Potential Output Pessimism and Austerity in the European Union," Discussion Papers 22-08, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    109. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2014. "A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 104-107.
    110. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Sergio da Silva, 2012. "An empirical case against the use of genetic-based learning classifier systems as forecasting devices," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 354-369.
    111. Xuan, Chunji & Kim, Chang-Jin, 2020. "Structural breaks in the mean of dividend-price ratios: Implications of learning on stock return predictability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    112. Vázquez, Jesús & Aguilar, Pablo, 2021. "Adaptive learning with term structure information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    113. Sergey Slobodyan & Raf Wouters, 2009. "Learning in an Estimated Medium-Scale DSGE Model," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp396, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    114. Ormeño, Arturo, 2012. "Using Survey Data on Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 2012-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    115. Pintus, P. A. & Suda, J., 2013. "Learning Leverage Shocks and the Great Recession," Working papers 440, Banque de France.
    116. Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Pick, Andreas, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 685-707.
    117. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Adaptive Learning and Macroeconomic Inertia in the Euro Area," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 579-599, June.
    118. Daniel L. Tortorice, 2019. "Long-Run Expectations, Learning and the US Housing Market," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 497-531, October.
    119. Branch, William A., 2016. "Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-42.
    120. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141591, HAL.
    121. Luzzetti, Matthew N. & Neumuller, Seth, 2016. "Learning and the dynamics of consumer unsecured debt and bankruptcies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 22-39.
    122. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    123. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2020. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers 2020-12, Banco de México.
    124. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    125. Duffy, John & Shin, Michael, 2024. "Heterogeneous experience and constant-gain learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    126. Reed, Jason R., 2019. "The forward premium puzzle and Markov-switching adaptive learning," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-17.
    127. Ryuichi Yamamoto, 2022. "Predictor Choice, Investor Types, and the Price Impact of Trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 325-356, January.
    128. Branch, William A. & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2019. "Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    129. Steffen Henzel, 2008. "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," ifo Working Paper Series 55, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    130. Kuang, Pei & Tang, Li & Zhang, Renbin & Zhang, Tongbin, 2022. "Forecast disagreement about long-run macroeconomic relationships," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 371-387.
    131. Zhu, Jiahua & Bao, Te & Chia, Wai Mun, 2021. "Evolutionary selection of forecasting and quantity decision rules in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 363-404.
    132. Henzel, Steffen R., 2013. "Fitting survey expectations and uncertainty about trend inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 172-185.
    133. Henry Sabrowski, 2008. "Inflation Expectation Formation of German Consumers: Rational or Adaptive?," Working Paper Series in Economics 100, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    134. Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "Term structure and real-time learning," Working Papers 1803, Banco de España.
    135. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the initialization of adaptive learning algorithms: A review of methods and a new smoothing-based routine," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 175, Economics, The University of Manchester.

  40. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2005. "An Interview with Thomas J. Sargent," CESifo Working Paper Series 1434, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Per Krusell, 2007. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Per Krusell on Search and Matching," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), April.
    2. Chemla, Gilles & Hennessy, Christopher, 2019. "Equilibrium Counterfactuals," CEPR Discussion Papers 14146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Dobson, Peter, 2020. "ETFs tracking errors on global markets with consideration of regional diversity," MPRA Paper 103695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael R. Wickens, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Controversy Over Price Rigidity — How to Resolve it and How Bayesian Estimation has Led us Astray," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 617-630, September.
    6. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2009. "Testing a DSGE Model of the EU Using Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 435-471, September.
    7. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How did we get to where we are now? Reflections on 50 years of macroeconomic and financial econometrics," Discussion Papers 14/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Tom Engsted, 2009. "Statistical vs. Economic Significance in Economics and Econometrics: Further comments on McCloskey & Ziliak," CREATES Research Papers 2009-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Czereszenko, Witalij, 2021. "Pursuing the aim of Exchange Traded Funds at the time of Covid-19," MPRA Paper 111319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Roman Frydman & Michael Goldberg, 2015. "Change and Rationality in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory: A New Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Working Papers Series 8, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    11. Eijffinger, Sylvester & van der Cruijsen, Carin, 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2007. "Actual versus Perceived Central Bank Transparency : The Case of the European Central Bank," Discussion Paper 2007-78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    13. Marchionatti, Roberto & Sella, Lisa, 2015. "Is Neo-Walrasian Macroeconomics a Dead End?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201521, University of Turin.
    14. Kristoffer Nimark, 2009. "Non-nested Information Sets and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2009 Meeting Papers 896, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2015. "Testing macro models by indirect inference: a survey for users," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    16. Bodo Herzog & Stefanie Schnee, 2022. "Exploring a Dualism of Human Rationality: Experimental Study of a Cheating Contest Game," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-13, June.
    17. Mellár, Tamás, 2016. "Szolgálólányból királycsináló - avagy az ökonometria makroökonómiai térhódítása? [From maidservant to king-maker - or the macroeconomic advance of econometrics?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 285-306.
    18. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Meenagh, David & Le, Vo Phuong Mai, 2015. "Small sample performance of indirect inference on DSGE models," CEPR Discussion Papers 10382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2021. "Estimating macro models and the potentially misleading nature of Bayesian estimation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    20. Minford, Patrick & Xu, Yongdeng, 2024. "Indirect Inference- a methodological essay on its role and applications," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    21. Asad Zaman, 2020. "Models and Reality: How Did Models Divorced from Reality Become Epistemologically Acceptable?," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 12(1), pages 24-49, April.
    22. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "The Research Agenda: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez on Estimating DSGE Models," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), November.
    23. Roman Frydman & Michael Goldberg & Nicholas Mangee, 2015. "New Evidence for the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Why the REH Version Failed Empirically," Working Papers Series 2, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    24. Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael D. & Mangee, Nicholas, 2015. "Knightian uncertainty and stock-price movements: Why the REH present-value model failed empirically," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-38, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    25. Timo Ehrig & Todd Zenger, 2024. "Competing with Theories: Using Awareness and Confidence to secure Resources and Rents," Working Papers TIMES² 2024-078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    26. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2018. "Testing DSGE Models by indirect inference: a survey of recent findings," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    27. Duo Qin, 2006. "VAR Modelling Approach and Cowles Commission Heritage," Working Papers 557, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

  41. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Williams, N., 2005. "Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0545, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    Cited by:

    1. Gaetano Gaballo, 2008. "Interactive Learning and Behavioral Sunspots," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 1008, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
    2. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    3. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2017. "Empirical calibration of adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 219-237.
    4. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2006. "Robustifying learnability," Working Paper Series 593, European Central Bank.
    5. Dave, Chetan & Malik, Samreen, 2017. "A tale of fat tails," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 293-317.
    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0808, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    7. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Stability under Learning: the Endogenous Growth Problem," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp1708, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    8. Di Pace, Frederico & Mitra, Kaushik & Zhang, Shoujian, 2016. "Adaptive learning and labour market dynamics," Bank of England working papers 633, Bank of England.
    9. Carlos Huertas Campos & Eliana González Molano & Cristhian Ruiz Cardozo, 2015. "La formación de expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 880, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Alberto Locarno, 2012. "Monetary policy in a model with misspecified, heterogeneous and ever-changing expectations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 888, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
    12. Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2020. "Information weighting under least squares adaptive learning," Working Papers 2020-04, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    13. Anastasios Xepapadeas & Catarina Roseta-Palma, 2013. "Instabilities and robust control in natural resource management," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(3), pages 161-180, December.
    14. Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2023. "Anchored Inflation Expectations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-47, January.
    15. Jaqueson Kingeski Galimberti, 2019. "An approximation of the distribution of learning estimates in macroeconomic models," KOF Working papers 19-453, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    16. Mele, Antonio & Molnar, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2018. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 22/2018, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    17. Michele Berardi, 2020. "A probabilistic interpretation of the constant gain learning algorithm," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 393-403, October.
    18. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Good luck or good policy? An expectational theory of macro volatility switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2755-2770.
    19. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    20. Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2007. "Adaptive learning in practice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2659-2697, August.
    21. Bullard, J.B. & Suda, J., 2011. "The Stability of Macroeconomic Systems with Bayesian Learners," Working papers 332, Banque de France.
    22. Parke, William R. & Waters, George A., 2014. "On The Evolutionary Stability Of Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(7), pages 1581-1606, October.
    23. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    24. Sergey Slobodyan & Anna Bogomolova, & Dmitri Kolyuzhnov, 2006. "Stochastic Gradient versus Recursive Least Squares Learning," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp309, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    25. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov, 2008. "Economic Dynamics Under Heterogeneous Learning: Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Stability," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp378, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    26. Jess Benhabib & Chetan Dave, 2014. "Learning, Large Deviations and Rare Events," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 367-382, July.
    27. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the plausibility of adaptive learning in macroeconomics: A puzzling conflict in the choice of the representative algorithm," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 177, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    28. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2013. "A note on exact correspondences between adaptive learning algorithms and the Kalman filter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 139-142.
    29. Sergey Slobodyan & Atanas Christev, 2006. "On learnability of E–stable equilibria," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 451, Society for Computational Economics.
    30. Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2010. "Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 426-444, September.
    31. Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Long-run growth uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80.
    32. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(May), pages 203-217.
    33. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2019. "Smoothing-Based Initialization For Learning-To-Forecast Algorithms," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 1008-1023, April.
    34. Olena Kostyshyna & Tolga Özden & Yang Zhang, 2024. "Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals," Staff Working Papers 24-14, Bank of Canada.
    35. Damjan Pfajfar & Blaž Žakelj, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design: Evidence from the Laboratory," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Anna Bogomolova & Dmitri Kolyuzhnov, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules: The Problem of Stability Under Heterogeneous Learning," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp379, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    37. Emiliano Santoro & Damjan Pfajfar, 2006. "Heterogeneity and learning in inflation expectation formation: an empirical assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers 0607, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    38. Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    39. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    40. Duffy, John & Shin, Michael, 2024. "Heterogeneous experience and constant-gain learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    41. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2021. "Learning when to say no," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    42. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules: The Problem of Stability under Heterogeneous Learning," 2007 Meeting Papers 713, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    43. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the initialization of adaptive learning algorithms: A review of methods and a new smoothing-based routine," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 175, Economics, The University of Manchester.

  42. Bullard, J. & Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S., 2005. "Near-Rational Exuberance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0546, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Milani, 2011. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 379-401, May.
    2. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2008. "Information Acquisition and Under-Diversification," NBER Working Papers 13904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Laura Veldkamp & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," Working Papers 06-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    5. Vasiliki Skreta & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Ratings Shopping and Asset Complexity: A Theory of Ratings Inflation," NBER Working Papers 14761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Angelini, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "The Dutch block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 646, European Central Bank.
    7. Christian Hellwig, 2005. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition (March 2007, with Laura Veldkamp)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 369, UCLA Department of Economics.
    8. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Bounded memory, overparameterized forecast rules, and instability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 129-135, February.

  43. William A. Branch & John B. Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary policy, endogenous inattention, and the volatility trade-off," Working Papers (Old Series) 0411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Kwangyong Park, 2019. "Uncertainty, Attention Allocation and Monetary Policy Asymmetry," Working Papers 2019-5, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    4. Paul Hubert & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Imperfect information in macroeconomics," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458122, HAL.
    5. William A. Branch & John B. Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2006. "Adaptive learning, endogenous inattention, and changes in monetary policy," Working Papers (Old Series) 0610, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Nathan Goldstein & Ben‐Zion Zilberfarb, 2023. "The closer we get, the better we are?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 364-376, April.
    7. Yingying Xu & Zhixin Liu & Zichao Jia & Chi-Wei Su, 2017. "Is time-variant information stickiness state-dependent?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(3), pages 169-187, December.
    8. Lena Dräger, 2011. "Endogenous Persistence with Recursive Inattentiveness," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201103, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    9. Carola Conces Binder, 2021. "Central Bank Communication and Disagreement about the Natural Rate Hypothesis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 81-123, June.
    10. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Good luck or good policy? An expectational theory of macro volatility switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2755-2770.
    11. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0508019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Davide Bazzana, 2024. "Animal spirits, bankruptcies, and monetary policy effectiveness in a hybrid macroeconomic agent-based financial accelerator model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 29-61, January.
    13. Martin Ellison & Tony Yates, 2007. "Escaping Volatile Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 981-993, June.
    14. Pfajfar, D., 2012. "Formation of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations," Other publications TiSEM f256da5c-c711-49c8-bd12-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Matthias Weber, 2015. "Monetary Policy under Behavioral Expectations: Theory and Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-087/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
    17. Hahn, Volker, 2014. "Transparency In Monetary Policy, Signaling, And Heterogeneous Information," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 369-394, March.
    18. Park, Kwangyong, 2023. "Do more frequent price adjustments guarantee less effective monetary stimulus when uncertainty rises?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Orland, Andreas & Roos, Michael W.M., 2019. "Price-setting with quadratic adjustment costs: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 88-116.
    20. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Monetary Policy Switch, the Taylor Curve, and the Great Moderation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 59, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. Alberto Locarno, 2007. "Imperfect Knowledge, Adaptive Learning, and the Bias Against Activist Monetary Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 47-85, September.

  44. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Stable Indeterminacy with Inertia," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-4, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 Mar 2004.

    Cited by:

    1. Marco Ratto, 2008. "Analysing DSGE Models with Global Sensitivity Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 115-139, March.
    2. Ashima Goyal & Shruti Tripathi, 2015. "Stability and transitions in emerging market policy rules," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-003, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2011. "Heterogeneous expectations, Taylor rules and the merit of monetary policy inertia," MPRA Paper 31004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kitney, Paul, 2018. "Financial factors and monetary policy: Determinacy and learnability of equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 194-207.
    5. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    6. Guse, Eran A., 2008. "Learning in a misspecified multivariate self-referential linear stochastic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1517-1542, May.
    7. Yunjong Eo & Nigel Mcclung, 2025. "Determinacy and E‐Stability with Interest Rate Rules at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 951-979, June.
    8. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Optimal Monetary Policy, and the Merit of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1535-1554, October.
    9. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Cost Channel and Inflation Inertia," Working Paper Series 2012:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    10. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2010. "Dynamic predictor selection in a new Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1492-1508, August.
    11. Olivier Loisel, 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Working papers 161, Banque de France.

  45. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Friedman’s money supply rule vs optimal interest rate policy," Macroeconomics 0405002, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," MPRA Paper 13780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Eryilmaz, Unal, 2021. "Enflasyonist Koşullarda Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Bir Para Arzı Tahmini [Money Supply Forecast for the Turkish Economy in Inflationary Conditions]," MPRA Paper 111685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 550-566, November.
    4. Schabert, Andreas, 2005. "Discretionary Policy, Multiple Equilibria, and Monetary Instruments," CEPR Discussion Papers 5400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jukka Vauhkonen, 2004. "Banks' equity stakes in borrowing firms: A corporate finance approach," Game Theory and Information 0404003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 3577, CESifo.
    7. Schabert, Andreas & Stoltenberg, Christian, 2005. "Money demand and macroeconomic stability revisited," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-027, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. Llewellyn, David T. & Mayes, David G., 2003. "The role of market discipline in handling problem banks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2003, Bank of Finland.
    9. Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Money Supply and the Implementation of Interest Rate Targets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-059/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Jukka Vauhkonen, 2004. "Financial contracts and contingent control rights," Finance 0404022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Meixing DAI & Moïse SIDIROPOULOS, 2009. "Money growth rule and macro-financial stability under inflation-targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-05, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    12. Kemppainen, Kari, 2003. "Competition and regulation in European retail payment systems," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2003, Bank of Finland.
    13. Honkapohja, Seppo, 2015. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2015, Bank of Finland.
    14. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    15. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "The Design of a 'Two-Pillar' Monetary Policy Strategy," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Guender, Alfred V., 2003. "Optimal discretionary monetary policy in the open economy: Choosing between CPI and domestic inflation as target variables," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2003, Bank of Finland.
    17. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2012. "Choices Of Optimal Monetary Policy Instruments Under The Floating And The Basket-Peg Regimes," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 57(04), pages 1-31.
    18. Cone, Thomas E., 2022. "Learning with unobserved regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Mattia Guerini, 2013. "Is the Friedman Rule Stabilizing? Some Unpleasant Results in a Heterogeneous Expectations Framework," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def003, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    20. Meixing DAI, 2010. "Financial market imperfections and monetary policy strategy," Working Papers of BETA 2010-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    21. John Keating & Andrew Lee Smith, 2013. "Determinacy and Indeterminacy in Monetary Policy Rules with Money," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201310, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.

  46. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "The E-Correspondence Principle," CESifo Working Paper Series 1112, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. W D A Bryant, 2009. "General Equilibrium:Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6875.
    2. Paul Oslington, 2012. "General Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 446-448, September.

  47. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Policy interaction, expectation and the liquidity trap," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2003, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Liquidity trap and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2012, Bank of Finland.
    2. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Stabilizing expectations under monetary and fiscal policy coordination," Staff Reports 343, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2004. "Optimal monetary policy under commitment with a zero bound on nominal interest rates," Working Paper Series 377, European Central Bank.
    4. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Ragna Alstadheim & Dale Henderson, 2006. "Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps," Working Paper 2006/03, Norges Bank.
    6. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Mestre, R. & Sousa, J., 2015. "Global policy at the zero lower bound in a large-scale DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 134-153.
    8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Is central bank conservatism desirable under learning ?," Post-Print hal-02167169, HAL.
    10. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    11. Ryo Kato & Yoko Takeda, 2004. "Reviewing US Monetary Policy in Disinflation Era: A Primer," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    12. James B. Bullard, 2013. "Seven Faces of \\"The Peril\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 613-628.
    13. Stefano Eusepi, 2008. "Central bank transparency and nonlinear learning dynamics," Staff Reports 342, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Kshama Dwarakanath & Svitlana Vyetrenko & Tucker Balch, 2024. "Empirical Equilibria in Agent-based Economic systems with Learning agents," Papers 2408.12038, arXiv.org.
    15. Honkapohja, Seppo, 2015. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2015, Bank of Finland.
    16. Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2003. "Escapist policy rules," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/38, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    17. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2013. "Do heterogeneous expectations constitute a challenge for policy interaction?," Working Papers Series 2 13-02, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    18. Séverine Menguy, 2016. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in A Potential Zero Lower Bound Framework," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(6), pages 104-126, 06-2016.
    19. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Learning to Believe in Secular Stagnation," Discussion Papers 2017-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    20. João Braz Pinto & João Sousa Andrade, 2015. "A Monetary Analysis of the Liquidity Trap," GEMF Working Papers 2015-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    21. Ravn, Morten & Mertens, Karel, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. George W. Evans, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    23. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
    24. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2009. "Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Lansing, Kevin J., 2021. "Endogenous forecast switching near the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-169.
    26. Kshama Dwarakanath & Svitlana Vyetrenko & Peyman Tavallali & Tucker Balch, 2024. "ABIDES-Economist: Agent-Based Simulation of Economic Systems with Learning Agents," Papers 2402.09563, arXiv.org.
    27. Bartholomew Moore, 2016. "The stability of learning prior to an anticipated change in the target inflation rate," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 267-293.
    28. Orlando Gomes, . "Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    29. Waters, George A., 2007. "Regime changes, learning and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 255-282, June.
    30. Jialin Dong & Kshama Dwarakanath & Svitlana Vyetrenko, 2023. "Analyzing the Impact of Tax Credits on Households in Simulated Economic Systems with Learning Agents," Papers 2311.17252, arXiv.org.
    31. Stefano Eusepi, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and the Liquidity Trap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 373-397, March.
    32. Kshama Dwarakanath & Jialin Dong & Svitlana Vyetrenko, 2024. "Tax Credits and Household Behavior: The Roles of Myopic Decision-Making and Liquidity in a Simulated Economy," Papers 2408.10391, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    33. Olivier Loisel, 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Working papers 161, Banque de France.

  48. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Are stationary hyperinflation paths learnable?," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

    Cited by:

    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 12441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin Ellison & Joseph Pearlman, 2010. "Saddlepath Learning," Economics Series Working Papers 505, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Guse, Eran A., 2008. "Learning in a misspecified multivariate self-referential linear stochastic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1517-1542, May.
    4. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Central bank transparency under model uncertainty," Staff Reports 199, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  49. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.

    Cited by:

    1. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2006. "Robustifying learnability," Working Paper Series 593, European Central Bank.
    2. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2008. "Investment, interest rate policy, and equilibrium stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1489-1516, May.
    3. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2010. "Labor market search, the Taylor principle, and indeterminacy," Research Working Paper RWP 11-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Yamin Ahmad & James Murray, 2023. "Implications for determinacy with average inflation targeting," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 510-517.
    5. Guse, Eran A., 2010. "Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 42-57, May.
    6. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2011. "Heterogeneous expectations, Taylor rules and the merit of monetary policy inertia," MPRA Paper 31004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bruce McGough & George Evans, 2004. "Optimal Constrained Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 134, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Marcin Wolski, 2015. "Modern Monetary Rules: Any Role for Financial Targeting?☆," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 367-403, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Kitney, Paul, 2018. "Financial factors and monetary policy: Determinacy and learnability of equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 194-207.
    11. Bruce McGough & Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2004. "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument," Working Paper Series 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    13. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    14. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-24.
    15. Fabio Busetti & Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno, 2014. "Deflationary shocks and de-anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 252, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2013. "Biased Bayesian learning with an application to the risk-free rate puzzle," Working Papers 201366, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0508019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Stephen McKnight, 2015. "Are consumption taxes preferable to income taxes in preventing macroeconomic instability?," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2015-04, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    20. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "Trend inflation, sticky prices, and expectational stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 175-187.
    21. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2012. "Credit Market Distortions, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy," Other publications TiSEM 4f6b4313-c8e5-46c5-85a4-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    22. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    23. Hommes, C.H. & Kiseleva, T. & Kuznetsov, Y. & Verbic, M., 2009. "Is more memory in evolutionary selection (de)stabilizing?," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    24. Martin Ellison & Joseph Pearlman, 2010. "Saddlepath Learning," Economics Series Working Papers 505, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    25. Matthew Doyle & Jean-Paul Lam, 2010. "Is the New Keynesian Explanation of the Great Dis-Inflation Consistent with the Cross Country Data?," Working Papers 1010, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    26. Guse, Eran A., 2008. "Learning in a misspecified multivariate self-referential linear stochastic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1517-1542, May.
    27. Caprioli, Francesco, 2015. "Optimal fiscal policy under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 101-124.
    28. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
    29. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2012. "Learning about monetary policy rules when labor market search and matching frictions matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 523-535.
    31. De Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-117.
    32. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.
    33. Giusto, Andrea, 2014. "Adaptive learning and distributional dynamics in an incomplete markets model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 317-333.
    34. Andrea Giusto, 2015. "Approximate aggregation revisited: higher moments do matter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(14), pages 1138-1143, September.
    35. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
    36. Sergio Santoro, 2017. "Heterogeneity and learning with complete markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 183-211, June.
    37. Yunjong Eo & Nigel Mcclung, 2025. "Determinacy and E‐Stability with Interest Rate Rules at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 951-979, June.
    38. Jasmina Arifovic, 2019. "Evolution of sunspot like behavior in the agent based economies of bank runs," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 365-389, March.
    39. Airaudo, Marco, 2013. "Monetary policy and stock price dynamics with limited asset market participation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-22.
    40. Tomasz Michalak & Jacob Engwerda & Joseph Plasmans, 2009. "Strategic Interactions between Fiscal and Monetary Authorities in a Multi-Country New-Keynesian Model of a Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 2534, CESifo.
    41. Xiao, Wei, 2005. "Increasing Returns and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 2005-08, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
    42. Carravetta, Francesco & Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Model reference adaptive expectations in Markov-switching economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 551-559.
    43. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    44. Marco Airaudo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Equilibrium Determinacy and Inflation Measures for Interest Rate Rules," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(4), pages 573-592, October.
    45. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Optimal Monetary Policy, and the Merit of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1535-1554, October.
    46. Xiao, Wei, 2013. "Learning about monetary policy rules when the housing market matters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 500-515.
    47. Poledna, Sebastian & Miess, Michael Gregor & Hommes, Cars & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Economic forecasting with an agent-based model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    48. Asad Zaman, 2015. "Monetary Paradoxes of Baby-Sitting Cooperatives," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:132, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    49. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2010. "Dynamic predictor selection in a new Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1492-1508, August.
    50. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesca Diluiso, 2022. "Climate Actions, Market Beliefs and Monetary Policy," CEIS Research Paper 535, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Mar 2022.
    51. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Can inflation contract discipline central bankers when agents are learning?," Working Papers of BETA 2017-25, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    52. Locarno, Alberto & Delle Monache, Davide & Busetti, Fabio & Gerali, Andrea, 2017. "Trust, but verify. De-anchoring of inflation expectations under learning and heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1994, European Central Bank.
    53. Per Jansson & Anders Vredin, 2003. "Forecast‐Based Monetary Policy: The Case of Sweden," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 349-380, November.
    54. Shea, Paul, 2008. "Real-time rational expectations and indeterminacy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 530-533, June.
    55. Cornaro, Alessandra & Agliari, Anna, 2011. "Global and local determinacy in a one-step forward looking New Keynesian model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1354-1362, May.
    56. McGough, Bruce & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2013. "Expectational stability of sunspot equilibria in non-convex economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1126-1141.
    57. Eo, Yunjong & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland.
    58. Waters, George A., 2009. "Learning, Commitment, And Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 421-449, September.
    59. S. G. B Henry & A. R. Pagan, 2004. "The Econometrics of the New Keynesian Policy Model: Introduction," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 581-607, September.
    60. Adam Kot & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," NBP Working Papers 52, Narodowy Bank Polski.

  50. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2003. "Freidman's Money Supply Rule versus Optimal Interest Rate Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," MPRA Paper 13780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 3577, CESifo.
    4. Meixing DAI & Moïse SIDIROPOULOS, 2009. "Money growth rule and macro-financial stability under inflation-targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-05, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    5. Kemppainen, Kari, 2003. "Competition and regulation in European retail payment systems," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2003, Bank of Finland.
    6. Honkapohja, Seppo, 2015. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2015, Bank of Finland.
    7. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    8. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "The Design of a 'Two-Pillar' Monetary Policy Strategy," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2012. "Choices Of Optimal Monetary Policy Instruments Under The Floating And The Basket-Peg Regimes," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 57(04), pages 1-31.
    10. Cone, Thomas E., 2022. "Learning with unobserved regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Mattia Guerini, 2013. "Is the Friedman Rule Stabilizing? Some Unpleasant Results in a Heterogeneous Expectations Framework," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def003, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    12. Meixing DAI, 2010. "Financial market imperfections and monetary policy strategy," Working Papers of BETA 2010-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    13. John Keating & Andrew Lee Smith, 2013. "Determinacy and Indeterminacy in Monetary Policy Rules with Money," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201310, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.

  51. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Policy interaction, expectation and the liquidity trap," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2003, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Liquidity trap and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2012, Bank of Finland.
    2. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Stabilizing expectations under monetary and fiscal policy coordination," Staff Reports 343, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2004. "Optimal monetary policy under commitment with a zero bound on nominal interest rates," Working Paper Series 377, European Central Bank.
    4. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Ragna Alstadheim & Dale Henderson, 2006. "Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps," Working Paper 2006/03, Norges Bank.
    6. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Mestre, R. & Sousa, J., 2015. "Global policy at the zero lower bound in a large-scale DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 134-153.
    8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Is central bank conservatism desirable under learning ?," Post-Print hal-02167169, HAL.
    10. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    11. Ryo Kato & Yoko Takeda, 2004. "Reviewing US Monetary Policy in Disinflation Era: A Primer," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    12. James B. Bullard, 2013. "Seven Faces of \\"The Peril\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 613-628.
    13. Stefano Eusepi, 2008. "Central bank transparency and nonlinear learning dynamics," Staff Reports 342, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Kshama Dwarakanath & Svitlana Vyetrenko & Tucker Balch, 2024. "Empirical Equilibria in Agent-based Economic systems with Learning agents," Papers 2408.12038, arXiv.org.
    15. Honkapohja, Seppo, 2015. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2015, Bank of Finland.
    16. Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2003. "Escapist policy rules," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/38, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    17. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2013. "Do heterogeneous expectations constitute a challenge for policy interaction?," Working Papers Series 2 13-02, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    18. Séverine Menguy, 2016. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in A Potential Zero Lower Bound Framework," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(6), pages 104-126, 06-2016.
    19. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Learning to Believe in Secular Stagnation," Discussion Papers 2017-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    20. João Braz Pinto & João Sousa Andrade, 2015. "A Monetary Analysis of the Liquidity Trap," GEMF Working Papers 2015-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    21. Ravn, Morten & Mertens, Karel, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. George W. Evans, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    23. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
    24. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2009. "Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Lansing, Kevin J., 2021. "Endogenous forecast switching near the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-169.
    26. Kshama Dwarakanath & Svitlana Vyetrenko & Peyman Tavallali & Tucker Balch, 2024. "ABIDES-Economist: Agent-Based Simulation of Economic Systems with Learning Agents," Papers 2402.09563, arXiv.org.
    27. Bartholomew Moore, 2016. "The stability of learning prior to an anticipated change in the target inflation rate," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 267-293.
    28. Orlando Gomes, . "Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    29. Waters, George A., 2007. "Regime changes, learning and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 255-282, June.
    30. Jialin Dong & Kshama Dwarakanath & Svitlana Vyetrenko, 2023. "Analyzing the Impact of Tax Credits on Households in Simulated Economic Systems with Learning Agents," Papers 2311.17252, arXiv.org.
    31. Stefano Eusepi, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and the Liquidity Trap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 373-397, March.
    32. Kshama Dwarakanath & Jialin Dong & Svitlana Vyetrenko, 2024. "Tax Credits and Household Behavior: The Roles of Myopic Decision-Making and Liquidity in a Simulated Economy," Papers 2408.10391, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    33. Olivier Loisel, 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Working papers 161, Banque de France.

  52. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Multivariate Models," DELTA Working Papers 2003-28, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).

    Cited by:

    1. Bai, Yuting & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2013. "Infrequent Fiscal Stabilization," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-17, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Cho, In-Koo, 2005. "Introduction to learning and bounded rationality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 127-128, October.
    3. Roger Guesnerie, 2008. "Macroeconomic and monetary policies from the "eductive" viewpoint," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586749, HAL.
    4. Roger Guesnerie & Pedro Jara-Moroni, 2009. "Expectational coordination in simple economic contexts: concepts and analysis with emphasis on strategic substitutabilities," PSE Working Papers halshs-00574957, HAL.
    5. Martin Guzman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 2020. "Towards a dynamic disequilibrium theory with randomness," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 621-674.
    6. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2009. "Heterogeneous adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2009-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    7. Jara-Moroni, Pedro, 2012. "Rationalizability in games with a continuum of players," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 668-684.
    8. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie & Bruce Mcgough, 2010. "Eductive stability in real business cycle models," PSE Working Papers halshs-00565011, HAL.
    9. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures: Selecting among Multiple Discretionary Equilibria," MPRA Paper 24616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2013. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-18, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    12. Parke, William R. & Waters, George A., 2014. "On The Evolutionary Stability Of Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(7), pages 1581-1606, October.
    13. Harvey Gram & Geoffrey Harcourt, 2015. "Joan Robinson and MIT," Working Papers 9, City University of New York Graduate Center, Ph.D. Program in Economics.
    14. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2011. "Adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena: does heterogeneity matter?," Post-Print hal-00828981, HAL.
    15. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Eductive learning and the rationalizability of oligopoly games," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 401-404.
    16. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
    17. Gliksberg, Baruch, 2010. "The Role of Consumption-Labor Complementarity as a Source of Macroeconomic Instability," MPRA Paper 24816, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  53. Bill Branch & George W. Evans, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-32, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Oct 2004.

    Cited by:

    1. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Animal Spirits and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 2418, CESifo.
    2. Guido Ascari & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Coherence without Rationality at the ZLB," Working Papers 784, DNB.
    3. Shea, Paul, 2015. "Red herrings and revelations: does learning about a new variable worsen forecasts?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 395-406.
    4. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Hommes, C.H., 2013. "Reflexivity, Expectations Feedback and Almost Self-fulfilling Equilibria: Economic Theory, Empirical Evidence and Laboratory Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-19, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    6. Gaetano Gaballo, 2008. "Interactive Learning and Behavioral Sunspots," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 1008, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2017. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 23304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
    9. Volha Audzei & Sergey Slobodyan, 2024. "Dynamic Sparse Restricted Perceptions Equilibria," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp792, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    10. Anton Nakov & Galo Nuño, 2011. "Learning from experience in the stock market," Working Papers 1132, Banco de España.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    13. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Lines, Marji & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 246-257, February.
    15. Guse, Eran A., 2010. "Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 42-57, May.
    16. Bazzana, Davide & Foltz, Jeremy & Zhang, Ying, 2021. "Impact of climate smart agriculture on food security: an agent-based analysis," FEEM Working Papers 311096, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    17. Di Pace, Frederico & Mitra, Kaushik & Zhang, Shoujian, 2016. "Adaptive learning and labour market dynamics," Bank of England working papers 633, Bank of England.
    18. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2015. "Learning, hypothesis testing, and rational-expectations equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 93-105.
    20. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Di Pietro Marco & Giannini Bianca, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," wp.comunite 0119, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    21. Bolt, W. & Demertzis, D. & Diks, C.G.H. & Van der Leij, M.J., 2014. "Identifying Booms and Busts in House Prices under Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-13, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    22. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    23. George W. Evans & William A.Branch, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-4, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    24. Alberto Locarno, 2012. "Monetary policy in a model with misspecified, heterogeneous and ever-changing expectations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 888, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Massenot, Baptiste, 2020. "Pain of Paying in a Business Cycle Model," SAFE Working Paper Series 194, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2020.
    26. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
    27. Andrea Giusto, 2015. "Learning to Agree: A New Perspective on Price Drift," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 276-282.
    28. Evans, David & Li, Jungang & McGough, Bruce, 2023. "Local rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 216-236.
    29. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Macroeconomic modeling when agents are imperfectly informed," Discussion Papers 6_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    30. I. Salle & Marc Alexandre Senegas & Murat Yildizoglu, 2019. "How transparent about its inflation target should a central bank be?: An agent-based model assessment," Post-Print hal-03026559, HAL.
    31. Tiziana Assenza & Peter Heemeijer & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2013. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-016/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    32. Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco, 2019. "Beliefs formation and the puzzle of forward guidance power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 20-32.
    33. de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2017. "The international synchronisation of business cycles: the role of animal spirits," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68898, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    34. Tim Taylor & Richard Harrison, 2008. "Misperceptions, heterogeneous expectations and macroeconomic dynamics," 2008 Meeting Papers 710, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    35. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2022. "Trust and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 17087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Assenza, Tiziana & Berardi, Michele, 2009. "Learning in a credit economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1159-1169, May.
    37. Demery, David & Duck, Nigel W., 2007. "The theory of rational expectations and the interpretation of macroeconomic data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-18, March.
    38. Hagenhoff, Tim, 2018. "An aggregate welfare optimizing interest rate rule under heterogeneous expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 139, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    39. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2023. "On the use of current and forward-looking data in monetary policy: a behavioural macroeconomic approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 526-552.
    40. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2009. "Heterogeneous adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2009-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    41. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2008. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    42. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Foresti, Pasquale, 2019. "Fiscal Policies in Booms and Busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 13740, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Bao, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2010. "Individual Expectations, Limited Rationality and Aggregate Outcomes," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    44. Anufriev, Mikhail & Chernulich, Aleksei & Tuinstra, Jan, 2018. "A laboratory experiment on the heuristic switching model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 21-42.
    45. Tiziana Assenza & William Brock & Cars Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def007, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    46. Wiliam Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-19, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 15 May 2007.
    47. Audzei, Volha & Slobodyan, Sergey, 2022. "Sparse restricted perceptions equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    48. Georges, Christophre & Wallace, John C., 2009. "Learning Dynamics And Nonlinear Misspecification In An Artificial Financial Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 625-655, November.
    49. De Grauwe, Paul, 2008. "DSGE-Modelling: when agents are imperfectly informed," Working Paper Series 897, European Central Bank.
    50. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "Booms and busts: New Keynesian and behavioural explanations," Chapters, in: Robert M. Solow & Jean-Philippe Touffut (ed.), What’s Right with Macroeconomics?, chapter 6, pages 149-180, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    51. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    52. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    53. Alistair Macaulay & James Moberly, 2022. "Heterogeneity in imperfect inflation expectations:theory and evidence from a novel survey," Economics Series Working Papers 970, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 12441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin Ellison & Joseph Pearlman, 2010. "Saddlepath Learning," Economics Series Working Papers 505, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Guse, Eran A., 2008. "Learning in a misspecified multivariate self-referential linear stochastic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1517-1542, May.
    4. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Central bank transparency under model uncertainty," Staff Reports 199, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  55. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2002, Bank of Finland.

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    1. de Truchis, Gilles & Dell’Eva, Cyril & Keddad, Benjamin, 2017. "On exchange rate comovements: New evidence from a Taylor rule fundamentals model with adaptive learning," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 82-98.
    2. Favero, Carlo A. & Consolo, Agostino, 2009. "Monetary Policy Inertia: More a Fiction than a fact?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. James B. Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2003. "Determinacy, learnability, and monetary policy inertia," Working Papers 2000-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    5. Tesfaselassie, M.F. & Schaling, E. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-058-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    6. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2006. "Robustifying learnability," Working Paper Series 593, European Central Bank.
    7. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.
    8. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0808, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    10. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2021. "Optimal constrained interest-rate rules under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 287-325.
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    12. Martin ZUMPE, 2015. "The New Keynesian Model: an Interpretation of Michael Woodford\'s \"Interest and Prices\" (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2015-30, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    13. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Petros M. Migiakis, 2013. "Inflation persistence and the rationality of inflation expectations," Working Papers 151, Bank of Greece.
    14. Bruce McGough & George Evans, 2004. "Optimal Constrained Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 134, Society for Computational Economics.
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    25. Viktor Marinkov, 2020. "Communication at the Zero Lower Bound: The Case for Forward Guidance," Economics Series Working Papers 923, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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    29. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Bernardo X. Fernandez & Jim Malley, 2011. "The Distributional Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms in General Equilibrium," CESifo Working Paper Series 3504, CESifo.
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    35. Hagenhoff, Tim, 2018. "An aggregate welfare optimizing interest rate rule under heterogeneous expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 139, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    36. Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2008. "Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262123061, December.
    37. J. Huston McCulloch, 2005. "The Kalman Foundations of Adaptive Least Squares: Applications to Unemployment and Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 239, Society for Computational Economics.
    38. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2018. "Instability in the basic New Keynesian model under limited information," MPRA Paper 88015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules under Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 35, Bank of Greece.
    40. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    41. James Bullard & George Evans, 2004. "Near-Rational Exuberance," 2004 Meeting Papers 465, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    43. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    44. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-24.
    45. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland.
    46. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "Asset pricing with expectation shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-82.
    47. Fabio Busetti & Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno, 2014. "Deflationary shocks and de-anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 252, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    48. Machado, Vicente da Gama, 2013. "Monetary policy rules, asset prices and adaptive learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 251-258.
    49. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2013. "Biased Bayesian learning with an application to the risk-free rate puzzle," Working Papers 201366, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    50. Wiliam Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-19, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 15 May 2007.
    51. Paloviita, Maritta, 2007. "Estimating a small DSGE model under rational and measured expectations: some comparisons," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2007, Bank of Finland.
    52. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2004. "Learning in Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: The Case of an Open Economy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 236/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    53. Ferrero, Giuseppe, 2007. "Monetary policy, learning and the speed of convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3006-3041, September.
    54. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
    55. Martin ZUMPE, 2010. "Monetary Policy Rules, Learning and Stability: a Survey of the Recent Literature (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2010-01, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    56. Christian Matthes & Francesca Rondina, 2017. "Two-sided Learning and Short-Run Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model of the Economy," Working Papers 1705E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    57. Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2015. "Learnability of an equilibrium with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-74.
    58. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2015. "Central bank accountability under adaptive learning," Working Papers of BETA 2015-32, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    59. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
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    61. Hommes, C.H. & Kiseleva, T. & Kuznetsov, Y. & Verbic, M., 2009. "Is more memory in evolutionary selection (de)stabilizing?," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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    65. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June.
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    81. Agliari, Anna & Pecora, Nicolò & Spelta, Alessandro, 2015. "Coexistence of equilibria in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous beliefs," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 83-95.
    82. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2007. "The Value of Interest Rate Stabilization Policies When Agents Are Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2041-2056, December.
    83. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2008. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy: Lessons from Japan," Working Papers UWEC-2008-12-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2008.
    84. Xiao, Wei, 2005. "Increasing Returns and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 2005-08, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
    85. Martin Fukaè, 2005. "Do the Measurements of Financial Market Inflation Expectations Yield Relevant Macroeconomic Information?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(7-8), pages 344-362, July.
    86. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Instrument rules in monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2007, Bank of Finland.
    87. Eric Gaus, 2012. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 13-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2012.
    88. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "Robust Optimal Policies in a Behavioural New Keynesian Model," JRC Research Reports JRC111603, Joint Research Centre.
    89. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will monetary policy become more of a science?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    90. Ichiro Muto, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Learning from the Central Bank's Forecast," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    91. Maritta Paloviita, 2009. "Estimating open economy Phillips curves for the euro area with directly measured expectations," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 233-254.
    92. Mikael Bask, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(4), pages 338-354, November.
    93. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Cost Channel and Inflation Inertia," Working Paper Series 2012:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    94. Bask, Mikael & Selander, Carina, 2007. "Robust Taylor rules in an open economy with heterogeneous expectations and least squares learnig," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland.
    95. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Can inflation contract discipline central bankers when agents are learning?," Working Papers of BETA 2017-25, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    96. Philip Arestis & Alexander Mihailov, 2008. "Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields and Methods from Past to Future," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2008-64, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    97. Xiao, Wei & Xu, Junyi, 2014. "Expectations and optimal monetary policy: A stability problem revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 296-299.
    98. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in a hybrid New Keynesian model with a cost channel," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2007, Bank of Finland.
    99. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2016. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge in a Small Open Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 28, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    100. Zhou Lu & Te Bao & Xiaohua Yu, 2021. "Gender and Bubbles in Experimental Markets with Positive and Negative Expectation Feedback," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1307-1326, April.
    101. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova & Sergey Slobodyan, 2006. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous—Time Approximation," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp285, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    102. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2020. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers 2020-12, Banco de México.
    103. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2008_040, December.
    104. Henzel, Steffen & Mayer, Eric & Schimpfermann, Bodo, 2004. "E-Stabilty: Über die Lernbarkeit von rationalen Erwatungsgleichgewichten," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 55, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    105. Steffen Henzel, 2008. "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," ifo Working Paper Series 55, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    106. Salome Tvalodze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Tamar Mdivnishvili & Davit Tutberidze & Zviad Zedginidze, 2016. "The National Bank of Georgia's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System," NBG Working Papers 01/2016, National Bank of Georgia.
    107. Tomáš Holinka, 2010. "Proces učení a transparentnost centrální banky [Learning Process and Transparency of Central Bank]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(4), pages 458-470.
    108. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  56. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-14, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 27 Aug 2005.

    Cited by:

    1. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
    2. Evans, George W & McGough, Bruce, 2018. "Equilibrium selection, observability and backward-stable solutions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Balanced Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Consumption Taxes," CEPR Discussion Papers 5531, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy and stable indeterminacy with inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-7, April.
    5. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
    6. Weder, Mark, 2003. "On the plausibility of sunspot equilibria," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 65-81, March.
    7. Xiao, Wei, 2005. "Increasing Returns and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 2005-08, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
    8. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    9. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2007. "Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycle models under adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 879-903, April.
    10. Shea, Paul, 2016. "Short-sighted managers and learnable sunspot equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 117-126.
    11. McGough, Bruce & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2013. "Expectational stability of sunspot equilibria in non-convex economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1126-1141.
    12. Hirose, Yasuo, 2008. "Learnability and equilibrium selection under indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3459-3477, November.

  57. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Policy interaction, learning and the fiscal theory of prices," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2002, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    2. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Stabilizing expectations under monetary and fiscal policy coordination," Staff Reports 343, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Macroeconomics 0405008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. WILLIAM A. BRANCH & TROY DAVIG & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2008. "Monetary–Fiscal Policy Interactions under Implementable Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1095-1102, August.
    5. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "The Price Level, The Quantity Theory Of Money, And The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(1), pages 4-27, February.
    6. Begona Dominguez & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, 2019. "The effects of secondary markets for government bonds on inflation dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 249-273, April.
    7. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ragna Alstadheim & Dale Henderson, 2006. "Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps," Working Paper 2006/03, Norges Bank.
    9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 550-566, November.
    10. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule versus Optimal Interest Rate Policy," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-30, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Oct 2003.
    11. Kandil, Magda, 2005. "Money, interest, and prices: Some international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 129-147.
    12. Kauko, Karlo, 2002. "Links between securities settlement systems: An oligopoly theoretic approach," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2002, Bank of Finland.
    13. By Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2015. "Learning the monetary/fiscal interaction under trend inflation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 1146-1164.
    14. Peik Granlund, 2004. "Bank exit legislation in US, EU and Japanese financial centres," Finance 0405015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: some consequences of debt management policy," Staff Reports 515, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2013. "Do heterogeneous expectations constitute a challenge for policy interaction?," Working Papers Series 2 13-02, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    17. George W. Evans, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    18. Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Comment on: Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1177-1188, July.
    19. Granlund, Peik, 2002. "Bank exit legislationin US, EU and Japanese financial centres," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2002, Bank of Finland.
    20. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    21. Dhital, Saroj & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Haslag, Joseph H., 2021. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a frictional model of fiat money, nominal public debt and banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    22. Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Effects of the supply-side channel on stabilisation properties of policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Orlando Gomes, . "Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    24. Petia Ivanova, 2007. "The Fiscal Theory for the Cost Level and Monetarism," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 60-79.
    25. Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Stability consequences of fiscal policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Dominguez, Begona & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro, 2016. "The Effects of Secondary Markets and Unsecured Credit on Inflation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 75096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Branch, William A. & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2019. "Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.

  58. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2002, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. de Truchis, Gilles & Dell’Eva, Cyril & Keddad, Benjamin, 2017. "On exchange rate comovements: New evidence from a Taylor rule fundamentals model with adaptive learning," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 82-98.
    2. Favero, Carlo A. & Consolo, Agostino, 2009. "Monetary Policy Inertia: More a Fiction than a fact?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. James B. Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2003. "Determinacy, learnability, and monetary policy inertia," Working Papers 2000-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    5. Tesfaselassie, M.F. & Schaling, E. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-058-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    6. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2006. "Robustifying learnability," Working Paper Series 593, European Central Bank.
    7. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.
    8. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0808, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    10. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2021. "Optimal constrained interest-rate rules under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 287-325.
    11. James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2006. "Monetary policy, determinacy, and learnability in a two-block world economy," Working Papers 2006-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Martin ZUMPE, 2015. "The New Keynesian Model: an Interpretation of Michael Woodford\'s \"Interest and Prices\" (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2015-30, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    13. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Petros M. Migiakis, 2013. "Inflation persistence and the rationality of inflation expectations," Working Papers 151, Bank of Greece.
    14. Bruce McGough & George Evans, 2004. "Optimal Constrained Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 134, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    16. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Di Pietro Marco & Giannini Bianca, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," wp.comunite 0119, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    18. William A. Branch & John B. Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2006. "Adaptive learning, endogenous inattention, and changes in monetary policy," Working Papers (Old Series) 0610, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    19. Murray, James, 2011. "Learning and judgment shocks in U.S. business cycles," MPRA Paper 29257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Holtemöller, Oliver & Schult, Christoph, 2018. "Expectation formation, financial frictions, and forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    21. Francesca Rondina & Christian Matthes, 2015. "Two-sided Learning in New Keynesian Models: Dynamics, (Lack of) Convergence and the Value of Information," Working Papers 661, Barcelona School of Economics.
    22. Goodman, James, 2014. "Evidence for ecological learning and domain specificity in rational asset pricing and market efficiency," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 27-39.
    23. Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2007. "Inflation targeting, learning and Q volatility in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3699-3722, November.
    24. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 550-566, November.
    25. Viktor Marinkov, 2020. "Communication at the Zero Lower Bound: The Case for Forward Guidance," Economics Series Working Papers 923, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    26. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Mitra, K., 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0705, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    27. Luis‐Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta, 2008. "Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1033-1063, August.
    28. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Bernardo X. Fernandez & Jim Malley, 2011. "The Distributional Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms in General Equilibrium," CESifo Working Paper Series 3504, CESifo.
    30. Ikeda, Taro, 2014. "Asymmetric preferences in real-time learning and the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 487-489.
    31. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Is central bank conservatism desirable under learning ?," Post-Print hal-02167169, HAL.
    32. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Policy implications of learning from more accurate Central Bank Forecasts," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459994, HAL.
    33. Dennis, Richard & Ravenna, Federico, 2008. "Learning and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1964-1994, June.
    34. Berardi, Michele & Duffy, John, 2007. "The value of central bank transparency when agents are learning," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 9-29, March.
    35. Hagenhoff, Tim, 2018. "An aggregate welfare optimizing interest rate rule under heterogeneous expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 139, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    36. Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2008. "Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262123061, December.
    37. J. Huston McCulloch, 2005. "The Kalman Foundations of Adaptive Least Squares: Applications to Unemployment and Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 239, Society for Computational Economics.
    38. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2018. "Instability in the basic New Keynesian model under limited information," MPRA Paper 88015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules under Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 35, Bank of Greece.
    40. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    41. James Bullard & George Evans, 2004. "Near-Rational Exuberance," 2004 Meeting Papers 465, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    42. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    43. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    44. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-24.
    45. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland.
    46. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "Asset pricing with expectation shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-82.
    47. Fabio Busetti & Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno, 2014. "Deflationary shocks and de-anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 252, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    48. Machado, Vicente da Gama, 2013. "Monetary policy rules, asset prices and adaptive learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 251-258.
    49. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2013. "Biased Bayesian learning with an application to the risk-free rate puzzle," Working Papers 201366, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    50. Wiliam Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-19, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 15 May 2007.
    51. Paloviita, Maritta, 2007. "Estimating a small DSGE model under rational and measured expectations: some comparisons," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2007, Bank of Finland.
    52. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2004. "Learning in Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: The Case of an Open Economy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 236/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    53. Ferrero, Giuseppe, 2007. "Monetary policy, learning and the speed of convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3006-3041, September.
    54. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
    55. Martin ZUMPE, 2010. "Monetary Policy Rules, Learning and Stability: a Survey of the Recent Literature (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2010-01, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    56. Christian Matthes & Francesca Rondina, 2017. "Two-sided Learning and Short-Run Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model of the Economy," Working Papers 1705E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
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    58. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2015. "Central bank accountability under adaptive learning," Working Papers of BETA 2015-32, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    59. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
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    61. Hommes, C.H. & Kiseleva, T. & Kuznetsov, Y. & Verbic, M., 2009. "Is more memory in evolutionary selection (de)stabilizing?," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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    69. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "A heterogeneous agent exchange rate model with speculators and non-speculators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 203-223.
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    71. George W. Evans, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    72. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "Learning, robust monetary policy and the merit of precaution," Post-Print hal-03030047, HAL.
    73. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Performance of Inflation Targeting Based on constant Interest Rate Projections," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 130, Society for Computational Economics.
    74. Eric Schaling & James Bullard, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in the Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 362, Society for Computational Economics.
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    77. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Estimating open economy Phillips curves for the euro area with directly measured expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2008, Bank of Finland.
    78. Mikael Bask & Carina Selander, 2009. "Robust Taylor rules under heterogeneity in currency trade," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 283-313, October.
    79. James, Jonathan G. & Lawler, Phillip, 2010. "Macroeconomic shocks, unionized labour markets and central bank disclosure policy: How beneficial is increased transparency?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 506-516, December.
    80. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
    81. Agliari, Anna & Pecora, Nicolò & Spelta, Alessandro, 2015. "Coexistence of equilibria in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous beliefs," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 83-95.
    82. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2007. "The Value of Interest Rate Stabilization Policies When Agents Are Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2041-2056, December.
    83. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2008. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy: Lessons from Japan," Working Papers UWEC-2008-12-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2008.
    84. Xiao, Wei, 2005. "Increasing Returns and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 2005-08, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
    85. Martin Fukaè, 2005. "Do the Measurements of Financial Market Inflation Expectations Yield Relevant Macroeconomic Information?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(7-8), pages 344-362, July.
    86. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Instrument rules in monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2007, Bank of Finland.
    87. Eric Gaus, 2012. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 13-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2012.
    88. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "Robust Optimal Policies in a Behavioural New Keynesian Model," JRC Research Reports JRC111603, Joint Research Centre.
    89. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will monetary policy become more of a science?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    90. Ichiro Muto, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Learning from the Central Bank's Forecast," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    91. Maritta Paloviita, 2009. "Estimating open economy Phillips curves for the euro area with directly measured expectations," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 233-254.
    92. Mikael Bask, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(4), pages 338-354, November.
    93. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Cost Channel and Inflation Inertia," Working Paper Series 2012:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    94. Bask, Mikael & Selander, Carina, 2007. "Robust Taylor rules in an open economy with heterogeneous expectations and least squares learnig," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland.
    95. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Can inflation contract discipline central bankers when agents are learning?," Working Papers of BETA 2017-25, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    96. Philip Arestis & Alexander Mihailov, 2008. "Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields and Methods from Past to Future," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2008-64, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    97. Xiao, Wei & Xu, Junyi, 2014. "Expectations and optimal monetary policy: A stability problem revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 296-299.
    98. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in a hybrid New Keynesian model with a cost channel," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2007, Bank of Finland.
    99. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2016. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge in a Small Open Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 28, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    100. Zhou Lu & Te Bao & Xiaohua Yu, 2021. "Gender and Bubbles in Experimental Markets with Positive and Negative Expectation Feedback," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1307-1326, April.
    101. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova & Sergey Slobodyan, 2006. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous—Time Approximation," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp285, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    102. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2020. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers 2020-12, Banco de México.
    103. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2008_040, December.
    104. Henzel, Steffen & Mayer, Eric & Schimpfermann, Bodo, 2004. "E-Stabilty: Über die Lernbarkeit von rationalen Erwatungsgleichgewichten," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 55, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    105. Steffen Henzel, 2008. "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," ifo Working Paper Series 55, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    106. Salome Tvalodze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Tamar Mdivnishvili & Davit Tutberidze & Zviad Zedginidze, 2016. "The National Bank of Georgia's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System," NBG Working Papers 01/2016, National Bank of Georgia.
    107. Tomáš Holinka, 2010. "Proces učení a transparentnost centrální banky [Learning Process and Transparency of Central Bank]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(4), pages 458-470.
    108. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  59. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Expectational Stability of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Forward-looking Linear Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 14 Jan 2002.

    Cited by:

    1. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 157, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria near an Indeterminate Steady State," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Apr 2002.
    3. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Jolana Stejskalova, 2016. "Impact of the information on tax burden on the stock market," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2016-62, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    5. Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2007. "Macro Dynamics in a Model with Uncertainty," Working Papers (-2012) 0704, University of Bergamo, Department of Economics.
    6. Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "How Did Financial-Crisis-Based Criticisms of Market Efficiency Get It So Wrong?," Working Papers CEB 09-048.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    8. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 May 2003.
    9. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 2012. "Some Properties of Autocoherent Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
    12. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "Indeterminancy from inflation forecast targeting : problem or pseudo-problem?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Win), pages 25-51.
    13. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.
    14. Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2007. "Endogenous Cycles, Debt and Monetary Policy," Working Papers (-2012) 0703, University of Bergamo, Department of Economics.
    15. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2008. "Expectational Stability in Multivariate Models," Faculty Working Papers 06/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    16. Berardi, Michele, 2009. "Heterogeneous expectations, sunspot equilibria and their fragility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 276-279, December.
    17. Jolana Stejskalová, 2017. "The Impact of Attention to News about Tax Changes on the Stock Market," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(6), pages 2113-2121.

  60. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2002. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3434, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Research 146, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    3. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2006. "Robustifying learnability," Working Paper Series 593, European Central Bank.
    4. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Stabilizing expectations under monetary and fiscal policy coordination," Staff Reports 343, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Evans, George W & McGough, Bruce, 2018. "Equilibrium selection, observability and backward-stable solutions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-10.
    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0808, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary policy and learning," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 88(Q3), pages 11-16.
    8. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2021. "Optimal constrained interest-rate rules under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 287-325.
    9. Bruce McGough & George Evans, 2004. "Optimal Constrained Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 134, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Timeless perspective vs. discretionary monetary policy in forward-looking models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Mar), pages 43-56.
    11. Woodford, Michael, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Stabilization Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 14, pages 723-828, Elsevier.
    12. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Francesca Rondina & Christian Matthes, 2015. "Two-sided Learning in New Keynesian Models: Dynamics, (Lack of) Convergence and the Value of Information," Working Papers 661, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    15. Minford, Patrick & Hatcher, Michael, 2014. "Stabilization policy, rational expectations and price-level versus infl?ation targeting: a survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 9820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
    17. Evans, David & Li, Jungang & McGough, Bruce, 2023. "Local rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 216-236.
    18. George Waters, 2011. "Dangers of commitment under rational expectations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 371-381, October.
    19. Olivier Loisel, 2004. "Monetary policy rules to preclude booms and busts," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    20. Preston, Bruce, 2008. "Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3661-3681, November.
    21. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Yu‐chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2008. "Adaptive Learning And Monetary Policy In An Open Economy: Lessons From Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 405-430, October.
    23. Assenza, Tiziana & Berardi, Michele, 2009. "Learning in a credit economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1159-1169, May.
    24. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Bernardo X. Fernandez & Jim Malley, 2011. "The Distributional Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms in General Equilibrium," CESifo Working Paper Series 3504, CESifo.
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    27. Dennis, Richard & Ravenna, Federico, 2008. "Learning and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1964-1994, June.
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    29. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Long swings and chaos in the exchange rate in a DSGE model with a Taylor rule," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2007, Bank of Finland.
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    32. Campiglio, Emanuele & Lamperti, Francesco & Terranova, Roberta, 2023. "Believe me when I say green! Heterogeneous expectations and climate policy uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119258, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    33. Seppo Honkapohja, 2013. "Comment on "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations"," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 288-293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2018. "Instability in the basic New Keynesian model under limited information," MPRA Paper 88015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Tiziana Assenza & William Brock & Cars Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def007, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    36. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    37. Fabrizio Mattesini & Lorenza Rossi, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Automatic Stabilizers: The Role of Progressive Taxation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 825-862, August.
    38. Horvath, Michal, 2009. "The effects of government spending shocks on consumption under optimal stabilization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 815-829, October.
    39. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0508019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Wei Zhao & Yi Lu & Genfu Feng, 2019. "How Many Agents are Rational in China’s Economy? Evidence from a Heterogeneous Agent-Based New Keynesian Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 575-611, August.
    41. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2004. "Learning in Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: The Case of an Open Economy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 236/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    42. Llosa Gonzalo & Tuesta Vicente, 2007. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when the Cost Channel Matters," Working Papers 2007-014, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    43. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Lorenza Rossi & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Comparison," Working Papers 0727, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    44. Ferrero, Giuseppe, 2007. "Monetary policy, learning and the speed of convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3006-3041, September.
    45. Andrea Ferrero, 2008. "The advantage of flexible targeting rules," Staff Reports 339, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    46. Michele Berardi, 2009. "Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous and Misspecified Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 79-100, February.
    47. Holden, Tom D., 2024. "Robust Real Rate Rules," EconStor Preprints 279481, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2024.
    48. Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2015. "Learnability of an equilibrium with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-74.
    49. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2015. "Central bank accountability under adaptive learning," Working Papers of BETA 2015-32, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    50. Akvile Bertasiute & Domenico Massaro & Matthias Weber, 2018. "The behavioral economics of currency unions: Economic integration and monetary policy," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 49, Bank of Lithuania.
    51. Kurz, Mordecai & Piccillo, Giulia & Wu, Howei, 2013. "Modeling diverse expectations in an aggregated New Keynesian Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1403-1433.
    52. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    53. Krisztina Molnar & Sergio Santoro, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Agents Are Learning," 2008 Meeting Papers 679, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    54. Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
    55. Gáti, Laura, 2022. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations: an endogenous gain learning model," Working Paper Series 2685, European Central Bank.
    56. Mishra, Sagarika & Dhole, Sandip, 2014. "Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 194-204.
    57. Olivier Loisel, 2004. "Interest Rate Rules Ensuring Strong Local Equilibrium Determinacy," Working Papers 2004-03, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    58. Caprioli, Francesco, 2015. "Optimal fiscal policy under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 101-124.
    59. Areosa, Waldyr Dutra & Areosa, Marta B.M., 2016. "The inequality channel of monetary transmission," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 214-230.
    60. Nicolò Pecora & Alessandro Spelta, 2013. "Macroeconomic Stability and Heterogeneous Expectations," DEM Working Papers Series 037, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    61. Michele Berardi & John Duffy, 2010. "Real-Time, Adaptive Learning via Parameterized Expectations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 147, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    62. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    63. Chadha, J.S. & Corrado, L., 2007. "On the Determinacy of Monetary Policy under Expectational Errors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0722, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    64. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
    65. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy: What is Wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," NBER Working Papers 10747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    66. Bas Van Aarle & Harry Garretsen & Florence Huart, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 407-434, November.
    67. George W. Evans, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    68. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "Learning, robust monetary policy and the merit of precaution," Post-Print hal-03030047, HAL.
    69. Marzioni, Stefano, 2014. "Signals and learning in a new Keynesian economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 114-131.
    70. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Hughes Hallett Andrew & Acocella Nicola, 2008. "Policy games, policy neutrality and Tinbergen controllability under rational expectations," wp.comunite 0034, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    71. Berardi, Michele, 2008. "Should monetary policy respond to private sector expectations?," MPRA Paper 19285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Eric Gaus, 2013. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 439-453, October.
    73. Mikael Bask & Carina Selander, 2009. "Robust Taylor rules under heterogeneity in currency trade," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 283-313, October.
    74. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2025. "Robust optimal monetary policies in behavioral New Keynesian DSGE models," Working Papers in Public Economics 261, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    75. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2007. "The Value of Interest Rate Stabilization Policies When Agents Are Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2041-2056, December.
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    98. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2017. "Can inflation contract discipline central bankers when agents are learning?," Working Papers of BETA 2017-25, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
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    100. Xiao, Wei & Xu, Junyi, 2014. "Expectations and optimal monetary policy: A stability problem revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 296-299.
    101. Marta B. M. Areosa & Waldyr D. Areosa & Pierre Monnin, 2016. "How Would Monetary Policy Look Like if John Rawls Had Been Hired as a Chairman of the Fed?," Working Papers Series 447, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    102. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in a hybrid New Keynesian model with a cost channel," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2007, Bank of Finland.
    103. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
    104. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2016. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge in a Small Open Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 28, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    105. Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    106. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2020. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers 2020-12, Banco de México.
    107. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    108. Waters, George A., 2009. "Learning, Commitment, And Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 421-449, September.
    109. Adam Kot & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," NBP Working Papers 52, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    110. Olivier Loisel, 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Working papers 161, Banque de France.
    111. Waters, George A., 2022. "The many faces of the taylor rule for advanced undergraduate macroeconomics," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

  61. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Policy interaction, learning and the fiscal theory of prices," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2002, Bank of Finland.

    Cited by:

    1. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    2. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Stabilizing expectations under monetary and fiscal policy coordination," Staff Reports 343, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Macroeconomics 0405008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. WILLIAM A. BRANCH & TROY DAVIG & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2008. "Monetary–Fiscal Policy Interactions under Implementable Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1095-1102, August.
    5. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "The Price Level, The Quantity Theory Of Money, And The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(1), pages 4-27, February.
    6. Begona Dominguez & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, 2019. "The effects of secondary markets for government bonds on inflation dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 249-273, April.
    7. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ragna Alstadheim & Dale Henderson, 2006. "Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps," Working Paper 2006/03, Norges Bank.
    9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 550-566, November.
    10. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule versus Optimal Interest Rate Policy," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-30, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Oct 2003.
    11. Kandil, Magda, 2005. "Money, interest, and prices: Some international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 129-147.
    12. Kauko, Karlo, 2002. "Links between securities settlement systems: An oligopoly theoretic approach," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2002, Bank of Finland.
    13. By Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2015. "Learning the monetary/fiscal interaction under trend inflation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 1146-1164.
    14. Peik Granlund, 2004. "Bank exit legislation in US, EU and Japanese financial centres," Finance 0405015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: some consequences of debt management policy," Staff Reports 515, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2013. "Do heterogeneous expectations constitute a challenge for policy interaction?," Working Papers Series 2 13-02, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    17. George W. Evans, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    18. Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Comment on: Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1177-1188, July.
    19. Granlund, Peik, 2002. "Bank exit legislationin US, EU and Japanese financial centres," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2002, Bank of Finland.
    20. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    21. Dhital, Saroj & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Haslag, Joseph H., 2021. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a frictional model of fiat money, nominal public debt and banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    22. Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Effects of the supply-side channel on stabilisation properties of policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Orlando Gomes, . "Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    24. Petia Ivanova, 2007. "The Fiscal Theory for the Cost Level and Monetarism," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 60-79.
    25. Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Stability consequences of fiscal policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Dominguez, Begona & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro, 2016. "The Effects of Secondary Markets and Unsecured Credit on Inflation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 75096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Branch, William A. & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2019. "Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.

  62. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 May 2003.

    Cited by:

    1. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 157, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
    3. Evans, George W & McGough, Bruce, 2018. "Equilibrium selection, observability and backward-stable solutions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-10.
    4. Bruce McGough & George Evans, 2004. "Optimal Constrained Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 134, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Mr. Marco Airaudo & Salvatore Nisticò & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2015. "Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2015/016, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Shu-Heng Chen & Chung-Chih Liao & Pei-Jung Chou, 2008. "On the plausibility of sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(1), pages 25-41, June.
    8. William A. Branch & Troy Davig & Bruce McGough, 2007. "Expectational stability in regime-switching rational expectations models," Research Working Paper RWP 07-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    9. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    10. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
    12. Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2015. "Learnability of an equilibrium with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-74.
    13. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2011. "Investment and Monetary Policy: Learning and Determinacy of Equilibrium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 959-992, August.
    14. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.
    15. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
    16. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: Learning and predictor choice dynamics," Post-Print hal-00796301, HAL.
    17. Sergio Santoro, 2017. "Heterogeneity and learning with complete markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 183-211, June.
    18. Jasmina Arifovic, 2019. "Evolution of sunspot like behavior in the agent based economies of bank runs," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 365-389, March.
    19. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    20. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2007. "Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycle models under adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 879-903, April.
    21. Shea, Paul, 2016. "Short-sighted managers and learnable sunspot equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 117-126.
    22. Cornaro, Alessandra & Agliari, Anna, 2011. "Global and local determinacy in a one-step forward looking New Keynesian model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1354-1362, May.
    23. McGough, Bruce & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2013. "Expectational stability of sunspot equilibria in non-convex economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1126-1141.
    24. Berardi, Michele, 2009. "Heterogeneous expectations, sunspot equilibria and their fragility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 276-279, December.

  63. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2001. "Expectational Stability of Resonant Frequency Sunspot Equilibria," CESifo Working Paper Series 497, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
    2. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.

  64. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2001. "Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria Near an Indeterminate Steady State," CESifo Working Paper Series 478, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis," Staff Reports 198, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
    3. Eusepi, Stefano, 2007. "Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1115-1131, May.
    4. Bruce McGough & George Evans, 2004. "Optimal Constrained Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 134, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2002. "Chaotic Interest-Rate Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 72-78, May.
    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "The E‐Correspondence Principle," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(293), pages 33-50, February.
    7. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy and stable indeterminacy with inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-7, April.
    8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    9. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 May 2003.
    10. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
    12. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Heterogeneous sunspots solutions under learning and replicator dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 160, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.
    14. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    15. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Chaotic Interest Rate Rules: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 10272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  65. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Woodford, Michael, 2005. "Robustly optimal monetary policy with near-rational expectations," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/12, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, "undated". "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2013. "Fiscal foundations of inflation: imperfect knowledge," Staff Reports 649, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, pages 52-67, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Olivier Loisel, 2015. "The Implementation of Stabilization Policy," Working papers 556, Banque de France.
    6. James B. Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2003. "Determinacy, learnability, and monetary policy inertia," Working Papers 2000-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    8. Giuseppe Ferrero, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Transition to Rational Expectations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 499, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2006. "Robustifying learnability," Working Paper Series 593, European Central Bank.
    10. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Stabilizing expectations under monetary and fiscal policy coordination," Staff Reports 343, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Ashima Goyal & Shruti Tripathi, 2015. "Stability and transitions in emerging market policy rules," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-003, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    12. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.
    13. Klaus Masuch & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Massimo Rostagno & Huw Pill, 2003. "The role of money in monetary policymaking," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 158-191, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0808, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    15. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2021. "Optimal constrained interest-rate rules under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 287-325.
    16. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Macroeconomics 0405008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Colin C. Caines, 2016. "Can Learning Explain Boom-Bust Cycles In Asset Prices? An Application to the US Housing Boom," International Finance Discussion Papers 1181, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2006. "Monetary policy, determinacy, and learnability in a two-block world economy," Working Papers 2006-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Michele Berardi, 2009. "Expectations, learning and policy rule," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 112, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    20. James B. Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2004. "Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?," Working Papers 2003-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. Di Pace, Frederico & Mitra, Kaushik & Zhang, Shoujian, 2016. "Adaptive learning and labour market dynamics," Bank of England working papers 633, Bank of England.
    22. Bruce McGough & George Evans, 2004. "Optimal Constrained Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 134, Society for Computational Economics.
    23. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    26. Murray, James, 2011. "Learning and judgment shocks in U.S. business cycles," MPRA Paper 29257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    28. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2012. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    29. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2005. "Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. George W. Evans & William A.Branch, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-4, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    31. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
    32. Carlos Huertas Campos & Eliana González Molano & Cristhian Ruiz Cardozo, 2015. "La formación de expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 880, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    33. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
    34. Spagat, Michael & Rosal, Joao Mauricio, 2002. "Structural Uncertainty and Central Bank Conservatism: The Ignorant Should Keep Their Eyes Shut," CEPR Discussion Papers 3568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Florin Bilbiie, 2008. "Limited Asset Market Participation, Monetary Policy and (Inverted) Aggregate Demand Logic," Post-Print hal-00622865, HAL.
    36. George Waters, 2011. "Dangers of commitment under rational expectations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 371-381, October.
    37. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 550-566, November.
    38. Boehl, Gregor & Hommes, Cars, 2025. "Rational vs. irrational beliefs in a complex world," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    39. Grimaud, Alex, 2021. "Precautionary saving and un-anchored expectations," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 08/2021, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    40. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2005. "Determinacy, learnability, and discretionary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 181-185, May.
    41. Barnett, William A. & Eryilmaz, Unal, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Determinacy: An Inquiry in Open Economy New Keynesian Framework," MPRA Paper 111567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Olivier Loisel, 2004. "Monetary policy rules to preclude booms and busts," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    43. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Andreas Schabert, 2007. "Federal Reserve Policy viewed through a Money Supply Lens," Working Papers 2007-02, Swiss National Bank.
    44. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Koursaros, Demetris & Otto, Glenn, 2024. "Asymmetry in inflation persistence under inflation targeting," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    45. George W. Evans & Avik Chakraborty, 2006. "Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Aug 2006.
    46. Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 19368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Assenza, Tiziana & Berardi, Michele, 2009. "Learning in a credit economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1159-1169, May.
    48. Jaqueson Kingeski Galimberti, 2019. "An approximation of the distribution of learning estimates in macroeconomic models," KOF Working papers 19-453, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    49. Ikeda, Taro, 2014. "Asymmetric preferences in real-time learning and the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 487-489.
    50. Dennis, Richard & Ravenna, Federico, 2008. "Learning and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1964-1994, June.
    51. Mele, Antonio & Molnar, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2018. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 22/2018, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    52. Berardi, Michele & Duffy, John, 2007. "The value of central bank transparency when agents are learning," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 9-29, March.
    53. Hagenhoff, Tim, 2018. "An aggregate welfare optimizing interest rate rule under heterogeneous expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 139, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    54. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Williams, N., 2005. "Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0545, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    55. Anssi Rantala, 2004. "Adaptive learning and multiple equilibria in a natural rate monetary model with unemployment persistence," GE, Growth, Math methods 0404005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    57. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules under Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 35, Bank of Greece.
    58. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    59. James Bullard & George Evans, 2004. "Near-Rational Exuberance," 2004 Meeting Papers 465, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    60. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    61. Davide Debortoli & Junior Maih & Ricardo Nunes, 2011. "Loose commitment in medium-scale macroeconomic models: theory and applications," International Finance Discussion Papers 1034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    62. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-24.
    63. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland.
    64. Justin Svec & Daniel L. Tortorice, 2022. "Asserting Independence: Optimal Monetary Policy When the Central Bank and Political Authority Disagree," Working Papers 2201, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    65. Machado, Vicente da Gama, 2013. "Monetary policy rules, asset prices and adaptive learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 251-258.
    66. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    67. Fabrizio Mattesini & Lorenza Rossi, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Automatic Stabilizers: The Role of Progressive Taxation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 825-862, August.
    68. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
    69. Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2017. "A Note On Trend Growth And Learning About Monetary Policy Rules In A Two-Block World Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 243-258, January.
    70. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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    51. Victor Hugo Puican Rodriguez & Liliana del Carmen Suárez Santa Cruz & Abel Salazar Asalde & Alejandro Alcántara Suyón & Freddy Manuel Camacho Delgado, 2024. "The Effect of Taxes and Tax Refunds on the Economic Activity of the Energy Industry in Peru," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 36-47, July.
    52. Hatzinikolaou, Dimitris, 2010. "How to Turn a Recession into a Depression: The Role of the Media, of the Politicians, and of the Political Analysts," MPRA Paper 45391, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2010.
    53. Homburg, Stefan, 2017. "A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198807537, Decembrie.
    54. Zheng, Biao & Zhang, Yuquan W. & Qu, Fang & Geng, Yong & Yu, Haishan, 2022. "Do rare earths drive volatility spillover in crude oil, renewable energy, and high-technology markets? — A wavelet-based BEKK- GARCH-X approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    55. Angel Asensio, 2008. "The growing evidence of Keynes's methodology advantage and its consequences within the four macro-markets framework," Post-Print halshs-00189221, HAL.
    56. Ray Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2483, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.

  67. Evans, G. E. & Guesnerie R., 1999. "Coordination on saddle path solutions : the eductive viewpoint. 1 - linear univariate models," DELTA Working Papers 1999-15, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).

    Cited by:

    1. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    2. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Multivariate Models," DELTA Working Papers 2003-28, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    3. Bai, Yuting & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2013. "Infrequent Fiscal Stabilization," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-17, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Roger Guesnerie, 2008. "Macroeconomic and monetary policies from the "eductive" viewpoint," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586749, HAL.
    5. Roger Guesnerie & Pedro Jara-Moroni, 2009. "Expectational coordination in simple economic contexts: concepts and analysis with emphasis on strategic substitutabilities," PSE Working Papers halshs-00574957, HAL.
    6. Martin Guzman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 2020. "Towards a dynamic disequilibrium theory with randomness," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 621-674.
    7. Jara-Moroni, Pedro, 2012. "Rationalizability in games with a continuum of players," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 668-684.
    8. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures: Selecting among Multiple Discretionary Equilibria," MPRA Paper 24616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2013. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-18, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    10. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
    11. Haomiao Yu, 2014. "Rationalizability in large games," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(2), pages 457-479, February.
    12. Orlando Gomes, . "Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    13. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.

  68. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja, S., 1998. "Stochastic Gradient Learning in the Cobweb Model," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 438, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Atanas Christev, 2007. "Learning Hyperinflations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 126, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    2. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    3. Davies, Ronald B. & Shea, Paul, 2010. "Adaptive learning with a unit root: An application to the current account," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 179-190, February.
    4. Mele, Antonio & Molnar, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2018. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 22/2018, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    5. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Williams, N., 2005. "Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0545, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Gauthier, Stephane, 2002. "Determinacy and Stability under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 354-374, February.
    7. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the plausibility of adaptive learning in macroeconomics: A puzzling conflict in the choice of the representative algorithm," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 177, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2017. "On the initialization of adaptive learning in macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 26-53.
    9. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2013. "A note on exact correspondences between adaptive learning algorithms and the Kalman filter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 139-142.
    10. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2019. "Smoothing-Based Initialization For Learning-To-Forecast Algorithms," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 1008-1023, April.
    11. Gunduz Caginalp, 2020. "Fat tails arise endogenously in asset prices from supply/demand, with or without jump processes," Papers 2011.08275, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    12. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2014. "A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 104-107.
    13. Colucci, Domenico & Valori, Vincenzo, 2005. "Error learning behaviour and stability revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, March.
    14. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2005. "Ways of learning in a simple economic setting: a comparison," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2005-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    15. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the initialization of adaptive learning algorithms: A review of methods and a new smoothing-based routine," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 175, Economics, The University of Manchester.

  69. Seppo Honkapohja & George W. Evans, 1996. "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," CESifo Working Paper Series 110, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Liquidity trap and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2012, Bank of Finland.
    2. Atanas Christev, 2007. "Learning Hyperinflations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 126, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Barrdear, John, 2015. "Towards a new Keynesian theory of the price level," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86315, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    5. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2003. "ML vs GMM Estimates of Hybrid Macroeconomic Models (With an Application to the New Phillips Curve)," Working papers 103, Banque de France.
    6. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Multivariate Models," DELTA Working Papers 2003-28, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    7. George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Paul Romer, 1996. "Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Klaus Adam, 2003. "Learning to Forecast and Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 297, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0808, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    10. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Francesca Rondina & Christian Matthes, 2015. "Two-sided Learning in New Keynesian Models: Dynamics, (Lack of) Convergence and the Value of Information," Working Papers 661, Barcelona School of Economics.
    12. Shurojit Chatterji & Ignacio N. Lobato, 2010. "Transformations of the state variable and learning dynamics," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 6(4), pages 385-403, December.
    13. Nunes, Ricardo, 2009. "Learning The Inflation Target," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 167-188, April.
    14. Tiziana Assenza & Peter Heemeijer & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2013. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-016/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Schaefer, Daniel & Singleton, Carl, 2018. "Unemployment and econometric learning," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 277-296.
    16. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Mitra, K., 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0705, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Jaqueson Kingeski Galimberti, 2019. "An approximation of the distribution of learning estimates in macroeconomic models," KOF Working papers 19-453, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    18. Bennett T. McCallum, 2008. "Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: Is New Keynesian Analysis Critically Flawed?," NBER Working Papers 14534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
    20. James Bullard & George Evans, 2004. "Near-Rational Exuberance," 2004 Meeting Papers 465, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1996. "Least squares learning with heterogeneous expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 197-201, November.
    22. Adam, K., 2000. "Adaptive Learning and the Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation," Economics Working Papers eco2000/25, European University Institute.
    23. Honkapohja, Seppo, 2015. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2015, Bank of Finland.
    24. Norbert Christopeit & Michael Massmann, 2010. "Consistent Estimation of Structural Parameters in Regression Models with Adaptive Learning," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-077/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    25. Chatterji, Shurojit, 2004. "Subjective temporary equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 1757-1780, July.
    26. Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2011. "Optimal Disinflation Under Learning," 2011 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Tan, Kang Yong, 2009. "Learning and international transmission of shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1033-1052, September.
    28. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja, S., 1998. "Stochastic Gradient Learning in the Cobweb Model," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 438, Department of Economics.
    29. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2015. "Comparing Inflation and Price-Level Targeting: The Role of Forward Guidance and Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 27-59, December.
    30. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2010. "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-33, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    31. Marzioni, Stefano & Traficante, Guido, 2023. "Learning with uncertain inflation target," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 624-634.
    32. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the plausibility of adaptive learning in macroeconomics: A puzzling conflict in the choice of the representative algorithm," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 177, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    33. Marzioni, Stefano, 2014. "Signals and learning in a new Keynesian economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 114-131.
    34. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
    35. Seppo Honkapohja & George W. Evans, 1996. "Convergence of Learning Algorithms without a Projection Facility," CESifo Working Paper Series 109, CESifo.
    36. Wenzelburger, Jan, 2006. "Learning in linear models with expectational leads," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 854-884, November.
    37. Chatterji, Shurojit & Chattopadhyay, Subir, 2000. "Global stability in spite of "local instability" with learning," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-165, March.
    38. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2008. "Expectational Stability in Multivariate Models," Faculty Working Papers 06/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    39. Bullard, James & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2010. "A Model Of Near-Rational Exuberance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 166-188, April.
    40. Frank Hespeler, 2012. "On Boundary Conditions Within the Solution of Macroeconomic Dynamic Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 265-291, October.
    41. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Adaptive Learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 183, Society for Computational Economics.

  70. George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Paul Romer, 1996. "Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Ka-Kit Iong & Andreas Irmen, 2020. "The Supply of Hours Worked and Endogenous Growth Cycles," DEM Discussion Paper Series 20-10, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    2. Bill Dupor, 2005. "Keynesian Conundrum: Multiplicity and Time Consistent Stabilization," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 154-177, January.
    3. Orlando Gomes, 2005. "Knowledge creation and technology difusion: a framework to understand economic growth," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 20(2), pages 41-61, December.
    4. Kongsamut, Piyabha & Rebelo, Sérgio & Xie, Danyang, 1997. "Beyond Balanced Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1693, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria near an Indeterminate Steady State," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Apr 2002.
    7. Orlando Gomes, 2004. "The Optimal Control of Technology Choices," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Pedro Gil & Fernanda Figueiredo, 2013. "Firm size distribution under horizontal and vertical innovation," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 129-161, January.
    9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    10. Homero Cuevas, 2001. "Un modelo clásico de crecimiento económico," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 3(4), pages 32-51, January-J.
    11. Christian Ragacs & Thomas Steinberger & Martin Zagler, 1998. "Growth Theories and the Persistence of Output Fluctuations: The Case of Austria," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp060, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    12. Derek Lemoine, 2017. "Innovation-Led Transitions in Energy Supply," NBER Working Papers 23420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gino Gancia & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2005. "Horizontal innovation in the theory of growth and development," Economics Working Papers 831, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    14. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2012. "The "Mystery of the Printing Press" Monetary Policy and Self-fulfilling Debt Crises," Discussion Papers 1424, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Aug 2014.
    15. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Mitra, K., 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0705, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Robert Amano & Thomas J. Carter & Kevin Moran, 2012. "Inflation and Growth: A New Keynesian Perspective," Staff Working Papers 12-23, Bank of Canada.
    17. Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    18. Gomes, Orlando, 2015. "Optimal resource allocation in a representative investor economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 72-84.
    19. Kamihigashi, Takashi, 1999. "Chaotic dynamics in quasi-static systems: theory and applications1," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 183-214, March.
    20. Christoph Gortz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2013. "Learning, Capital Embodied Technology and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 708-723, October.
    21. Shunsuke Shinagawa & Eiji Tsuzuki, 2019. "Policy Lag and Sustained Growth," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 5(3), pages 403-431, October.
    22. Georg Erber, 2003. "Unwarranted final demand shocks of public deficits reductions in Germany," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 38(1), pages 38-50, January.
    23. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
    24. Sochirca, Elena & Afonso, Óscar & Gil, Pedro Mazeda, 2013. "Technological-knowledge bias and the industrial structure under costly investment and complementarities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 440-451.
    25. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Cyclical growth in a Goodwin–Kalecki–Marx model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 108(2), pages 145-171, March.
    26. Jan Toporowski, 2013. "The Elgar Companion to Hyman Minsky," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 175-177, January.
    27. Park, Hyun, 2020. "Indeterminate equilibrium growth with product and R&D spillovers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 286-298.
    28. Schwark, Florentine, 2014. "Energy price shocks and medium-term business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 112-121.
    29. Abderrezak, Ali, 1998. "On the Duration of Growth Cycles: An International Study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 343-355.
    30. Simone Marsiglio & Marco Tolotti, 2015. "Endogenous Growth and Technological Progress with Innovation Driven by Social Interactions," Working Papers 9, Venice School of Management - Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
    31. Karayalcin, Cem & Mitra, Devashish, 1999. "Multiple equilibria, coordination, and transitional growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 297-316, December.
    32. Honkapohja, Seppo & Turunen-Red, Arja H. & Woodland, Alan D., 2011. "Growth, expectations and tariffs," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2011, Bank of Finland.
    33. Patrick M. Emerson & Bruce McGough, 2018. "Learning About Education," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 263-277, January.
    34. Homero Cuevas, 2001. "La autonomía extrema del Banco Central en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 3(5), pages 220-227, July-Dece.
    35. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9891.
    36. Arifovic, Jasmina & Evans, George W. & Kostyshyna, Olena, 2020. "Are sunspots learnable? An experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    37. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin J. Lansing, 1999. "Fiscal policy, increasing returns, and endogenous fluctuations," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    38. Elena Sochirca & Pedro Mazeda Gil & Oscar Afonso, 2013. "Technology Structure and Skill Structure: Costly Investment and Complementarity Effects Quantification," FEP Working Papers 478, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    39. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 10003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Tatsuro Iwaisako & Koichi Futagami, 2013. "Patent protection, capital accumulation, and economic growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(2), pages 631-668, March.
    41. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Working Papers 0040, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    42. Maria João Thompson, 2007. "Complementarities and Costly Investment in a One-Sector Growth Model," NIPE Working Papers 8/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    43. Oscar Afonso & Sara Monteiro & Maria Thompson, 2012. "Innovation Economy, Productive Public Expenditures and Economic Growth," NIPE Working Papers 13/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    44. Gaowang Wang & Heng-fu Zou, 2010. "Multiple Equilibria and Indeterminacy in an Optimal Growth Model with Endogenous Capital Depreciation," CEMA Working Papers 392, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    45. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2007. "Knightian Uncertainty and Poverty Trap in a Model of Economic Growth," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-502, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    46. Piero Ferri, 2010. "Growth Cycles and the Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH)," Chapters, in: Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & L. Randall Wray (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Hyman Minsky, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    47. De Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-117.
    48. Óscar Afonso & Sara Monteiro & Maria Thompson, 2010. "A Growth Model for the Quadruple Helix Innovation Theory," FEP Working Papers 370, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    49. Jürgen Antony & Torben Klarl & Erik E. Lehmann, 2017. "Productive and harmful entrepreneurship in a knowledge economy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 189-202, June.
    50. Iwaisako, Tatsuro & Tanaka, Hitoshi, 2017. "Product cycles and growth cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 22-40.
    51. Piero Ferri & AnnaMaria Variato, 2010. "Financial Fragility, the Minskian Triad, and Economic Dynamics," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 70-82.
    52. David M. Frankel, 2010. "Rent Seeking and Economic Fragility," Levine's Bibliography 661465000000000159, UCLA Department of Economics.
    53. Smolny, Werner, 1997. "Endogenous innovations in a model of the firm: Theory and empirical application for West-German manufacturing firms," Discussion Papers 39, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
    54. Jasmina Arifovic, 2019. "Evolution of sunspot like behavior in the agent based economies of bank runs," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 365-389, March.
    55. Murakami, Hiroki, 2018. "Existence and uniqueness of growth cycles in post Keynesian systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 293-304.
    56. Park, Hyun & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2004. "Indeterminacy and fiscal policies in a growing economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 645-660, January.
    57. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2001. "Animal Spirits meets Creative Destruction," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 130, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    58. John Bryant, 2005. "Coordination, Fragility, High-Powered Money, and the Liquidity Trap: A "Tobinesque" Parable," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 97-106, Winter.
    59. Reikard, Gordon, 2005. "Endogenous technical advance and the stochastic trend in output: A neoclassical approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1476-1490, December.
    60. Burda, Michael C. & Weder, Mark, 1998. "Endogenes Wachstum, gleichgewichtige Arbeitslosigkeit und persistente Konjunkturzyklen," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,9, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    61. Hans Kind, 2001. "Gains and losses from trade when countries differ in public knowledge stock," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(3), pages 274-293, September.
    62. Eicher, Theo & García-Peñalosa, Cecilia, 2008. "Endogenous strength of intellectual property rights: Implications for economic development and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 237-258, February.
    63. Bryant, John, 2002. "Trade, credit and systemic fragility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 475-489, March.
    64. Pedro Mazeda Gil, 2010. "Animal Spirits and the Composition of Innovation in a Lab-Equipment R&D Model with Transition," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_040, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    65. Shea, Paul, 2016. "Short-sighted managers and learnable sunspot equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 117-126.
    66. Waters, George A., 2007. "Regime changes, learning and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 255-282, June.
    67. Maria João Ribeiro Thompson, 2003. "Complementarities, Costly Investment and Multiple Equilibria in a One-Sector Endogenous Growth Model," NIPE Working Papers 7/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    68. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
    69. Gil, Pedro Mazeda & Afonso, Oscar & Brito, Paulo, 2019. "Economic growth, the high-tech sector, and the high skilled: Theory and quantitative implications," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 89-105.
    70. Eran Guse, 2004. "Expectational Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 97, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    71. Doi, Junko & Mino, Kazuo, 2005. "Technological spillovers and patterns of growth with sector-specific R&D," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 557-578, December.
    72. Óscar Afonso & Maria Thompson, 2009. "Costly Investment, Complementarities and the Skill Premium," FEP Working Papers 323, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    73. Maria Thompson, 2008. "Complementarities and costly investment in a growth model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 94(3), pages 231-240, September.
    74. Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Thompson, Maria, 2016. "The skill premium and economic growth with costly investment, complementarities and international trade of intermediate goods," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 73-86.
    75. Arnold, Lutz G., 2000. "Stability of the Market Equilibrium in Romer's Model of Endogenous Technological Change: A Complete Characterization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 69-84, January.
    76. Goulas, Eleftherios & Zervoyianni, Athina, 2013. "Growth, deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 380-392.
    77. McGough, Bruce & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2013. "Expectational stability of sunspot equilibria in non-convex economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1126-1141.
    78. Blackley, Paul R., 2000. "Sources of sectoral fluctuations in business fixed investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 473-484.

  71. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 1996. "Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 1310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Pekarski, Sergey, 2011. "Budget deficits and inflation feedback," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11, February.
    2. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
    3. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    4. David Finck, 2022. "Optimal Monetary Policy UnderHeterogeneous Beliefs," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202243, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Guse, Eran A., 2010. "Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 42-57, May.
    6. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Are stationary hyperinflation paths learnable?," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Mathieu Pedemonte & Hiroshi Toma & Esteban Verdugo, 2023. "Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience," Working Papers 23-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, 2003. "A Classification System for Economic Stochastic Control Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 114, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 867-896, August.
    11. Chappell, David & Peel, David A., 1998. "A note on some properties of the ESTAR model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 311-315, September.
    12. Nunes, Ricardo, 2009. "Learning The Inflation Target," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 167-188, April.
    13. Marcet, A. & Nicolini, J.P., 1997. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," Papers 9721, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    14. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
    15. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 8891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Mitra, K., 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0705, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
    18. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2016. "Uncertainty in forecasting inflation and monetary policy design: Evidence from the laboratory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 849-864.
    20. Olena Kostyshyna & Luba Petersen & Jing Yang, 2022. "A Horse Race of Monetary Policy Regimes: An Experimental Investigation," NBER Working Papers 30530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland.
    22. YiLi Chien & In-Koo Cho & B. Ravikumar, 2020. "Convergence to Rational Expectations in Learning Models: A Note of Caution," Working Papers 2020-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 19 Sep 2020.
    23. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2006. "Are hyperinflation paths learnable?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2725-2748, December.
    24. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2008. "Learning in the Credit Card Market," NBER Working Papers 13822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 1998. "Why do monetary policies matter? : An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model," Papers 98-47, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    26. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)," Other publications TiSEM 24250de3-0ad7-48dc-9c2a-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    27. Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Adaptive expectations coordination in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 117-140, October.
    28. Arifovic, Jasmina & Evans, George W. & Kostyshyna, Olena, 2020. "Are sunspots learnable? An experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    29. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2023. "A review of inflation expectations and perceptions research in the past four decades: a bibliometric analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 279-302, May.
    30. Mary A. Burke & Michael Manz, 2011. "Economic literacy and inflation expectations: evidence from a laboratory experiment," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    31. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October.
    32. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
    33. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2012. "Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 667, Central Bank of Chile.
    34. Wenzelburger, Jan, 2006. "Learning in linear models with expectational leads," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 854-884, November.
    35. Dai Zusai, 2018. "Evolutionary dynamics in heterogeneous populations: a general framework for an arbitrary type distribution," Papers 1805.04897, arXiv.org, revised May 2019.
    36. Eran Guse, 2004. "Learning with Heterogeneous Expectations in an Evolutionary World," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 99, Society for Computational Economics.
    37. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    38. Taner Yigit, 2007. "Inflation Targeting : An Indirect Approach to Assess the Direct Impact," Working Papers 0706, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    39. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Monetary policy, expectations and commitment," Working Paper Series 124, European Central Bank.
    40. Negroni, Giorgio, 2005. "Eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 931-952, May.
    41. George Evans & William Branch, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 312, Society for Computational Economics.
    42. Zhang, Lingxiang, 2013. "Modeling China's inflation dynamics: An MRSTAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 440-446.
    43. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers In An Rbc Model With Learning," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 240-283, January.
    44. Guse, Eran A., 2004. "Expectational business cycles," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2004, Bank of Finland.
    45. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Other publications TiSEM 38fac5ce-fe8f-4b61-a679-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    46. Susan K. Laury & Charles A. Holt, 2000. "Classroom Games: Making Money," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 205-213, Spring.
    47. Eran Guse, 2004. "Expectational Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 97, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    48. Jasmina Arifovic & James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 1995. "Learning in a model of economic growth and development," Working Papers 1995-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    49. Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
    50. Damjan Pfajfar & Blaž Žakelj, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design: Evidence from the Laboratory," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    51. Guse, Eran A., 2014. "Adaptive learning, endogenous uncertainty, and asymmetric dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 355-373.
    52. Dziubiński, Marcin & Roy, Jaideep, 2012. "Popularity of reinforcement-based and belief-based learning models: An evolutionary approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 433-454.
    53. Jõeveer, Karin & Kepp, Kaido, 2023. "What drives drivers? Switching, learning, and the impact of claims in car insurance," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

  72. Seppo Honkapohja & George W. Evans, 1996. "Convergence of Learning Algorithms without a Projection Facility," CESifo Working Paper Series 109, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Mele, Antonio & Molnar, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2018. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 22/2018, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    2. Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2007. "Adaptive learning in practice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2659-2697, August.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1999. "Inflation and Welfare: Comment on Robert Lucas," NBER Working Papers 6979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October.
    5. Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Supply-side reforms and learning dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 291-309, March.
    6. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

  73. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1993. "Adaptive Forecasts," CEP Discussion Papers dp0135, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    Cited by:

    1. Ferrero, Giuseppe, 2007. "Monetary policy, learning and the speed of convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3006-3041, September.
    2. Martin Ellison & Andrew Scott, 2009. "Learning and Price Volatility in Duopoly Models of Resource Depletion," OxCarre Working Papers 025, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.

  74. Evans, George W. & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "Information, Forecasts and Measurement of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Dupasquier, Chantal & Guay, Alain & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "A Survey of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 577-595, July.
    2. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2003. "Measuring US core inflation: A common trends approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 197-212, June.
    3. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Hahn, Franz & Ruenstler, Gerhard, 1996. "Potential Output, the Natural Rate of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve in a Multivariate Structural Time Series Framework," Economics Series 33, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    6. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2015. "Measuring international business cycles by saving for a rainy day," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 1266-1290, November.
    7. Vashchelyuk, N.V. (Ващелюк, Н.В.) & Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2016. "Determination of the Output Gap for the Russian Economy [Определение Разрыва Выпуска Для Российской Экономики]," Working Papers 2137, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    8. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1995. "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9504003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1994. "Is the Business Cycles a Necessary Consequence of Stochastic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 4650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," CAMA Working Papers 2017-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, "undated". "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy," Staff Working Papers 95-2, Bank of Canada.
    12. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
    13. Schumacher, Christian, 2000. "Forecasting trend output in the Euro area," HWWA Discussion Papers 109, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    14. Beyaert, Arielle & Quesada Medina, Alfonso J., 2001. "Computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition in the case of cointegrated systems with I(0) variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 283-289, September.
    15. Rotemberg, Julio J. & Woodford, Michael, 1999. "The cyclical behavior of prices and costs," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1051-1135, Elsevier.
    16. Tino Berger & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2023. "Cyclical consumption," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-064/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    18. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2010. "Measuring Business Cycles by Saving for a Rainy Day," NBER Working Papers 16075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Morley, James & Wong, Benjamin, 2018. "Estimating and Accounting for the Output Gap with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2018-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2019.
    20. Donald Robertson & Anthony Garratt & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 521-542.
    21. Norberto Rodríguez-Niño & Alejandra Ramírez-Ramírez, 2018. "Metodologías semi-estructurales para estimar la Inflación básica mensual en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1040, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. Pierre St-Amant, 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest Rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9602004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2015. "The multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition with I(1) and I(2) series," MPRA Paper 66319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Ángel Estrada & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 0009, Banco de España.
    25. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," MPRA Paper 91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Plato, Gerald E. & Hoffman, Linwood A., 2007. "Measuring the Influence of Commodity Fund Trading on Soybean Price Discovery," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37568, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    27. Gradzewicz, Michal & Kolasa, Marcin, 2004. "Estimating the output gap in the Polish economy: the VECM approach," MPRA Paper 28227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Anthony Garratt & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2004. "Inside the black box: permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 35, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    29. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
    30. Mardi Dungey & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jing Jian & Simon van Norden, 2013. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition: Implications from an Exact Structural Identification," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-23, CIRANO.
    31. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Staff Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.
    32. Polbin, Andrey & Skrobotov, Anton, 2017. "Спектральная Оценка Компоненты Бизнес Цикла Ввп России С Учетом Высокой Зависимости От Условий Торговли [Spectral estimation of the business cycle component of the Russian GDP under high dependence," MPRA Paper 78667, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Ben Smit & Le Roux Burrows, 2002. "Estimating potential output and output gaps for the South African economy," Working Papers 05/2002, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    34. Kum Hwa Oh & Eric Zivot & Drew Creal, 2006. "The Relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition andUnobserved Component Models with Correlated Shocks," Working Papers UWEC-2006-16-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    35. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?," Macroeconomics 9506001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Timothy Cogley, 1997. "Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-21.
    37. Robert F. Mulligan, 2016. "An Empirical Comparison of Canadian-American Business Cycle Fluctuations with Special Reference to the Phillips Curve," Advances in Austrian Economics, in: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics, volume 20, pages 163-194, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    38. Pierre St-Amant & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
    39. Gonzalo, J. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Systematic Framework for Analyzing the Dynamic Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Cahiers de recherche 9603, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    40. Morley, James & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2716, European Central Bank.
    41. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, 1999. "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England.
    42. Paolo Guarda, 2002. "Potential output and the output gap in Luxembourg: some alternative methods," BCL working papers 4, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    43. Alessandro Barbarino & Travis J. Berge & Andrea Stella, 2024. "The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1065-1081, September.
    44. Adom, Philip Kofi & Insaidoo, Michael & Minlah, Michael Kaku & Abdallah, Abdul-Mumuni, 2017. "Does renewable energy concentration increase the variance/uncertainty in electricity prices in Africa?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 81-100.
    45. Christian Schumacher, 2001. "Trend and Cycle in the Euro-Area: A Permanent-Transitory Decomposition Using a Cointegrated VAR Model," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 352-363.
    46. Timothy Cogley, "undated". "How Fast Can the New Economy Grow? A Bayesian Analysis of the Evolution of Trend Growth," Working Papers 2133301, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
    47. Oh, Kum Hwa & Zivot, Eric & Creal, Drew, 2008. "The relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions that are popular in economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 207-219, October.
    48. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2023. "How credible are Okun coefficients? The gap version of Okun’s law for G7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1467-1514, June.

  75. Evans, G.W. & Guesnerie, R., 1992. "Rationalizability, Strong Rationality and Expectational Stability," DELTA Working Papers 92-03, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).

    Cited by:

    1. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 157, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    3. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Multivariate Models," DELTA Working Papers 2003-28, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    4. Gabriel Desgranges & Sayantan Ghosal, 2021. "Partial Consensus in Large Games and Markets," Working Papers 2021_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0808, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    6. Bai, Yuting & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2013. "Infrequent Fiscal Stabilization," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-17, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Stability under Learning: the Endogenous Growth Problem," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp1708, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    8. Roger Guesnerie, 2008. "Macroeconomic and monetary policies from the "eductive" viewpoint," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586749, HAL.
    9. Roger Guesnerie & Pedro Jara-Moroni, 2007. "Expectational coordination in a class of economic models: Strategic substitutabilities versus strategic complementarities," Working Papers halshs-00587837, HAL.
    10. Chatterji, Shurojit & Ghosal, Sayantan, 2004. "Local coordination and market equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 255-279, February.
    11. Desgranges, Gabriel & Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Expectations Coordination On A Sunspot Equilibrium: An Eductive Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 7-41, February.
    12. Maik Heinemann, 2003. "Are Rational Expectations Equilibria with Private Information Eductively Stable?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 267, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
    14. Roger Guesnerie & Pedro Jara-Moroni, 2009. "Expectational coordination in simple economic contexts: concepts and analysis with emphasis on strategic substitutabilities," PSE Working Papers halshs-00574957, HAL.
    15. Jara-Moroni, Pedro, 2012. "Rationalizability in games with a continuum of players," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 668-684.
    16. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie & Bruce Mcgough, 2010. "Eductive stability in real business cycle models," PSE Working Papers halshs-00565011, HAL.
    17. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures: Selecting among Multiple Discretionary Equilibria," MPRA Paper 24616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2013. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-18, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    20. Branch, William A., 2002. "Local convergence properties of a cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 63-85, November.
    21. Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 1999. "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 456, Department of Economics.
    22. Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Adaptive expectations coordination in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 117-140, October.
    23. Ghosal, Sayantan, 2006. "Intertemporal coordination in two-period markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 11-35, December.
    24. Negroni, Giorgio, 2005. "Eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with identical fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 420-443, November.
    25. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Eductive learning and the rationalizability of oligopoly games," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 401-404.
    26. Negroni, Giorgio, 2005. "Eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 931-952, May.
    27. António Caleiro, 2007. "What Does Economics Assume About People?s Knowledge? Who knows?," Economics Working Papers 04_2007, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    28. António Caleiro, 2005. "How to Classify a Government? Can a Neural Network do it?," Economics Working Papers 9_2005, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    29. Gabriel Desgranges & Sayantan Ghosal, 2021. "Heterogeneous beliefs and approximately self-fulfilling outcomes," Working Papers 2021_07, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    30. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2014. "Sequential coordination, higher-order belief dynamics and the E-stability principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-279.
    31. Hens, Thorsten, 1997. "Stability of tatonnement processes of short period equilibria with rational expectations," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 41-67, August.

  76. George W. Evans & L Reichlin, 1992. "Information," CEP Discussion Papers dp0111, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    Cited by:

    1. Ades, Peter K. & Burgman, Mark A. & Linacre, Nicholas A. & Stewart-Oaten, Allen, 2005. "Incorporating collateral information using an adaptive management framework for the regulation of transgenic crops:," EPTD discussion papers 137, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Luís A. Aguirre & Antônio Aguirre, 1995. "A tutorial introduction to nonlinear dynamics in economics," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 088, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    3. Sabatini, Fabio, 2005. "Measuring Social Capital in Italy: An Exploratory Analysis," AICCON Working Papers 12-2005, Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit.

  77. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1992. "Adaptive Learning and Expectational Stability: An Introduction - (Now published as Ch.4 in 'Learning Rationality in Economics', A Kirman and M Salmon (eds), 1995, Basil Blackwell, Oxford), pp.102-126.," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 248, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.

    Cited by:

    1. Heinemann, Maik, 1997. "Convergence of Adaptive Learning and the Concept of Expectational Stability in Linear Rational Expectations Models with Multiple Equilibria," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-207, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    2. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & van Marrewijk, Charles, 1995. "Why do sanctions need time to work? Adjustment, learning and anticipation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 75-86, April.

  78. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, "undated". "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-14, University of Oregon Economics Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 17182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2011. "Stock market volatility and learning," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121739, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Chan, Kalok & Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang, 2018. "Conditional co-skewness and safe-haven currencies: A regime switching approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 58-80.
    4. Hommes, Cars & in ’t Veld, Daan, 2017. "Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 101-124.
    5. Scheffknecht, Lukas & Geiger, Felix, 2011. "A behavioral macroeconomic model with endogenous boom-bust cycles and leverage dynamcis," FZID Discussion Papers 37-2011, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    6. Michele Berardi, 2018. "Information aggregation and learning in a dynamic asset pricing model," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 241, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    7. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    8. Cars Hommes & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Joep Sonnemans, 2021. "Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(2), pages 414-433, June.
    9. Michele Berardi, 2015. "Prices, fundamental values and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 214, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    11. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
    12. Masahiko Egami & Yuki Shigeta & Katsutoshi Wakai, 2014. "The change of correlation structure across industries:an analysis in the regime-switching framework," Discussion papers e-14-002, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    13. Nabil Maghrebi & Mark J. Holmes & Kosuke Oya, 2014. "Financial instability and the short-term dynamics of volatility expectations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 377-395, March.
    14. Audzei, Volha & Slobodyan, Sergey, 2022. "Sparse restricted perceptions equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013. "Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
    16. Michele Berardi, 2016. "Endogenous time-varying risk aversion and asset returns," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 581-601, July.
    17. James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Yan, Yu & Tong, Yan & Wang, Yiming, 2025. "Momentum mechanisms under heterogeneous beliefs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    19. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
    20. Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Markov switching models in asset pricing research," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-44, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Norbert Christopeit & Michael Massmann, 2013. "Estimating Structural Parameters in Regression Models with Adaptive Learning," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-111/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Hommes, Cars H., 2014. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 1(1-2), pages 75-97, January.
    23. Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Rational Speculators, Contrarians and Excess Volatility," MPRA Paper 43490, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Jess Benhabib & Chetan Dave, 2014. "Learning, Large Deviations and Rare Events," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 367-382, July.
    25. Cheng, Xin & Chen, Hongyi & Zhou, Yinggang, 2021. "Is the renminbi a safe-haven currency? Evidence from conditional coskewness and cokurtosis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    26. Cars Hommes, 2017. "From self-fulfilling mistakes to behavioral learning equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-018/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    27. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2018. "Perpetual learning and apparent long memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 343-365.
    28. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2011. "Learning generates Long Memory," ESSEC Working Papers WP1113, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    29. Li, Jinfang, 2022. "The sentiment pricing dynamics with short-term and long-term learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    30. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2012. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-48.
    31. Bernales, Alejandro & Chen, Louisa & Valenzuela, Marcela, 2017. "Learning and forecasts about option returns through the volatility risk premium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 312-330.
    32. Audzei, Volha, 2023. "Learning and cross-country correlations in a multi-country DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    33. Eric Gaus & Arunima Sinha, 2015. "Characterizing Investor Expectations for Assets with Varying Risk," Working Papers 15-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    34. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    35. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2017. "Exchange rate pass through, cost channel to monetary policy transmission, adaptive learning, and the price puzzle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 69-82.
    36. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2013. "Perpetual learning and stock return predictability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 19-22.
    37. Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2020. "Price discovery in the small and in the large: Momentum and reversal, bubbles, and crashes," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    38. Sang Ik Seok & Hoon Cho & Chanhi Park & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "Do Overnight Returns Truly Measure Firm-Specific Investor Sentiment in the KOSPI Market?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-14, July.
    39. Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Pick, Andreas, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 685-707.
    40. Branch, William A., 2016. "Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-42.
    41. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2012. "Model Uncertainty And Exchange Rate Volatility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 815-844, August.
    42. Michele Berardi, 2016. "Herding through learning in an asset pricing model," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 223, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    43. Du, Kai, 2019. "Investor expectations, earnings management, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 134-157.
    44. Lof, Matthijs, 2013. "Essays on Expectations and the Econometrics of Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 59064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2016. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria, Persistence Amplification & Monetary Policy," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    46. Reed, Jason R., 2019. "The forward premium puzzle and Markov-switching adaptive learning," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-17.

Articles

  1. George W. Evans & Christopher G. Gibbs & Bruce McGough, 2025. "A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 101-133, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Evans, David & Li, Jungang & McGough, Bruce, 2023. "Local rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 216-236.
    2. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

  3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Evans, George W. & Hommes, Cars & McGough, Bruce & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 44-63.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2021. "Learning when to say no," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "Bounded rationality and unemployment dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    2. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

  6. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Evans, David & Li, Jungang & McGough, Bruce, 2023. "Local rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 216-236.
    2. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    3. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Equilibrium stability in a nonlinear cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

  7. Arifovic, Jasmina & Evans, George W. & Kostyshyna, Olena, 2020. "Are sunspots learnable? An experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Jasmina Arifovic & Cars Hommes & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Isabelle Salle, 2020. "Ten isn’t large! Group size and coordination in a large-scale experiment," Staff Working Papers 20-30, Bank of Canada.

  8. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Equilibrium stability in a nonlinear cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Evans, David & Li, Jungang & McGough, Bruce, 2023. "Local rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 216-236.
    2. Eran Guse & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2022. "Communication and Learning: The Bilateral Information Transmission in the Cobweb Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 693-723, August.
    3. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

  9. George W Evans & Roger Guesnerie & Bruce McGough, 2019. "Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 821-852.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers In An Rbc Model With Learning," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 240-283, January.

    Cited by:

    1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    2. Amélie BARBIER-GAUCHARD & Thierry BETTI & Théo METZ, 2023. "Fiscal multipliers, public debt anchor and government credibility in a behavioural macroeconomic model," Working Papers of BETA 2023-14, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Ngo, Phuong V., 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers At The Zero Lower Bound: The Role Of Government Spending Persistence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 970-997, June.
    4. Erin Cottle Hunt, 2021. "Adaptive Learning, Social Security Reform, and Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 677-714, June.
    5. Matsue, Toyoki, 2022. "Role of worker flows in the relationship between job offers and employment," MPRA Paper 115316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Amelie Barbier-Gauchard & Thierry Betti & Theo Metz, 2023. "Fiscal multipliers, public debt anchor and government credibility in a behavioural macroeconomic model," Working Papers 2023.10, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    7. Eran Guse & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2022. "Communication and Learning: The Bilateral Information Transmission in the Cobweb Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 693-723, August.
    8. Pei Kuang & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Potential Output Pessimism and Austerity in the European Union," Discussion Papers 22-08, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    9. Severin Reissl, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers, expectations and learning in a macroeconomic agent‐based model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1704-1729, October.

  11. Evans, George W & McGough, Bruce, 2018. "Equilibrium selection, observability and backward-stable solutions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-10.

    Cited by:

    1. Guido Ascari & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Coherence without Rationality at the ZLB," Working Papers 784, DNB.
    2. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2014. "Managing Self-organization of Expectations through Monetary Policy: a Macro Experiment," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    3. Evans, David & Li, Jungang & McGough, Bruce, 2023. "Local rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 216-236.
    4. Mariana Garcia-Schmidt & Michael Woodford, 2015. "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis," Working Papers Series 18, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    5. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Rational Confidence and Neo-Fisherian Depressions," EconPol Working Paper 38, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Kim, Minseong, 2021. "On global determinacy of New Keynesian models," OSF Preprints ygd9x, Center for Open Science.
    7. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2021. "Determinacy without the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 28881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Holden, Thomas, 2016. "Existence and uniqueness of solutions to dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," EconStor Preprints 130142, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Cole, Stephen J. & Huh, Sungjun, 2024. "Measuring the effects of unconventional monetary policy tools under adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    10. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    11. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    12. George W. Evans & Bruce Mcgough, 2018. "Interest‐Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 939-965, August.
    13. Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    14. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

  12. George W. Evans & Bruce Mcgough, 2018. "Interest‐Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 939-965, August.

    Cited by:

    1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    2. Galdi, Giulio & Casarin, Roberto & Ferrari, Davide & Fezzi, Carlo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Elizabeth Bersson & Patrick Hürtgen & Matthias Paustian, 2024. "Expectations Formation, Sticky Prices, and the ZLB," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 365-393, March.
    4. Mariana Garcia-Schmidt & Michael Woodford, 2015. "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis," Working Papers Series 18, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    5. Tamborini Roberto, 2022. "Beware of Pitfalls in the European Central Bank’s Review of Monetary Policy Strategy," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 15-23, June.
    6. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2020. "Phillips Curve and output expectations: New perspectives from the Euro Zone," DEM Working Papers 2020/6, Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Rational Confidence and Neo-Fisherian Depressions," EconPol Working Paper 38, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Bersson, Betsy & Hürtgen, Patrick & Paustian, Matthias, 2019. "Expectations formation, sticky prices, and the ZLB," Discussion Papers 34/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Roberto Tamborini, 2024. "Inflation surprises in a New Keynesian economy with a “true” consumption function," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1192-1215, July.
    11. Chang, C-L. & Ilomäki, J. & Laurila, H. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "Central Bank Intervention, Bubbles and Risk in Walrasian Financial Markets," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-07, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    12. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Luigi Bonatti, & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "What to expect from inflation expectations: theory, empirics and policy issues," DEM Working Papers 2022/1, Department of Economics and Management.
    14. Chrysanthopoulou, Xakousti & Sidiropoulos, Moise & Tsioutsios, Alexandros, 2024. "Ricardian equivalence and positively sloped IS curve: (Dis)equilibrium insights," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    15. Yunjong Eo & Nigel Mcclung, 2025. "Determinacy and E‐Stability with Interest Rate Rules at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 951-979, June.
    16. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2024. "When Should Central Banks Fear Inflation Expectations?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10966, CESifo.
    17. Eran Guse & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2022. "Communication and Learning: The Bilateral Information Transmission in the Cobweb Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 693-723, August.
    18. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    19. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    20. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Inflation puzzles, the Phillips Curve and output expectations: new perspectives from the Euro Zone," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-153, February.
    21. Gobbi, Lucio & Mazzocchi, Ronny & Tamborini, Roberto, 2019. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the “new normal”," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    22. Bias Peter V. & Hall Joshua D., 2021. "A Test of Neo-Fisherism: 1964–2019," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 221-251, January.

  13. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Proaño Acosta, Christian & Lojak, Benjamin, 2020. "Monetary policy with a state-dependent inflation target in a behavioral two-country monetary union model," BERG Working Paper Series 161, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    3. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    4. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Koursaros, Demetris & Otto, Glenn, 2024. "Asymmetry in inflation persistence under inflation targeting," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Stefano Marzioni & Guido Traficante, 2020. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Uncertain Inflation Target," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 601-621, October.
    7. Marzioni, Stefano & Traficante, Guido, 2023. "Learning with uncertain inflation target," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 624-634.
    8. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    9. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2018. "Perpetual learning and apparent long memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 343-365.
    10. Kobielarz, Michal, 2018. "The economics of monetary unions," Other publications TiSEM b0293536-68ec-4905-bffd-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Marcus Giamattei, 2022. "Can Cold Turkey Reduce Inflation Inertia? Evidence on Disinflation and Level‐k Thinking from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2477-2517, December.
    12. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.

  14. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2014. "Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 220-238.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2013. "Bubbles, crashes and risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 254-258.

    Cited by:

    1. Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2016. "Black Monday, globalization and trading behavior of stock investors," Discussion Papers 18/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Herrera Luis & Vázquez Jesús, 2023. "Interpreting Structural Shocks and Assessing Their Historical Importance," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 375-425, January.
    3. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2013. "Perpetual learning and stock return predictability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 19-22.
    4. Guharay, Samar K. & Thakur, Gaurav S. & Goodman, Fred J. & Rosen, Scott L. & Houser, Daniel, 2013. "Analysis of non-stationary dynamics in the financial system," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 454-457.
    5. Taro Ikeda, 2016. "Relume: A fractal analysis for the US stock market," Discussion Papers 1637, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.

  16. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2013. "E-stability in the stochastic Ramsey model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 407-410.

    Cited by:

    1. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2012. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

  18. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2012. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations Are Not Rational?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1283, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2011. "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 159-191, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2011. "Representations And Sunspot Stability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 80-92, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. William Branch & George Evans, 2011. "Monetary policy and heterogeneous expectations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 365-393, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Bullard, James & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2010. "A Model Of Near-Rational Exuberance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 166-188, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Evans George W & McGough Bruce, 2010. "Implementing Optimal Monetary Policy in New-Keynesian Models with Inertia," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2010. "Corrigendum: Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(3), pages 640-641, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Optimal Monetary Policy, and the Merit of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1535-1554, October.

  25. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Noah Williams, 2010. "Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(1), pages 237-262, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2010. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1651-1680, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Learning and Macroeconomics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 421-451, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2009. "Anticipated fiscal policy and adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 930-953, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. WilliamA. Branch & John Carlson & GeorgeW. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention and the Volatility Trade-off," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 123-157, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1438-1463, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. James Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Judgment, and Near-Rational Exuberance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1163-1177, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Chakraborty, Avik & Evans, George W., 2008. "Can perpetual learning explain the forward-premium puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 477-490, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  34. William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Policy Interaction, Learning, And The Fiscal Theory Of Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 665-690, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. GEORGE W. EVANS & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2007. "Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1335-1356, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "The E‐Correspondence Principle," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(293), pages 33-50, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  38. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2006. "Are hyperinflation paths learnable?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2725-2748, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2019. "Short waves in Hungary, 1923 and 1946: Persistence, chaos, and (lack of) control," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 532-550.
    2. Baranowski, Ryan, 2015. "Adaptive learning and monetary exchange," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Wojciech W. Charemza & Yuriy Kharin & Vladislav Maevskiy, 2014. "Bilinear Forecast Risk Assessment for Non-systematic Inflation: Theory and Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Frauke Schleer-van Gellecom (ed.), Advances in Non-linear Economic Modeling, edition 127, pages 205-232, Springer.
    4. Sokic, Alexandre, 2010. "The monetary analysis of hyperinflation and the appropriate specification of the demand for money," MPRA Paper 21503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Guse, Eran A., 2010. "Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 42-57, May.
    6. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kuang, Pei, 2016. "A Note On Learning In A Credit Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 845-855, April.
    8. Francesco Caprioli & Pietro Rizza & Pietro Tommasino, 2011. "Optimal Fiscal Policy when Agents Fear Government Default," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1031-1043.
    9. Thomas J. Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The conquest of South American inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Kevin J. Lansing & Jun Ma, 2014. "Explaining Exchange Rate Anomalies in a Model with Taylor-Rule Fundamentals and Consistent Expectations," Working Paper Series 2014-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Óscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative hyperinflations: when can we rule them out?," Working Papers 0607, Banco de España.
    12. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 12441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2015. "Learnability of an equilibrium with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-74.
    14. Martin Ellison & Joseph Pearlman, 2010. "Saddlepath Learning," Economics Series Working Papers 505, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Guse, Eran A., 2008. "Learning in a misspecified multivariate self-referential linear stochastic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1517-1542, May.
    16. Arce, Oscar J., 2009. "Speculative hyperinflations and currency substitution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1808-1823, October.
    17. Caprioli, Francesco, 2015. "Optimal fiscal policy under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 101-124.
    18. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Tao Zha, 2008. "Learning, adaptive expectations, and technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Granato, J. & Guse, E. & Sunny Wong, M.C., 2006. "Learning from the Expectations of Others," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0605, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. El-Shagi, Makram, 2009. "Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    21. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2008. "Expectational Stability in Multivariate Models," Faculty Working Papers 06/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    22. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
    23. Jun-Hyun Ko & Hiroshi Morita, 2015. "How does hyperinflation shock the economy?: Panel VAR Approach," Working Papers e090, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.

  39. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  41. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 15-38, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  42. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 2006. "Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 249-264, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  43. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2005. "Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 303-323, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  44. Evans, George W. & Guesnerie, Roger, 2005. "Coordination on saddle-path solutions: the eductive viewpoint--linear multivariate models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 202-229, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  45. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 601-625, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  46. Evans George W & McGough Bruce, 2005. "Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-46, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  47. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy and stable indeterminacy with inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-7, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  48. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1809-1840, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  49. George W. Evans, 2005. "The design of monetary and fiscal policy: a global perspective - comments," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2009. "Is forward-looking inflation targeting destabilizing? The role of policy's response to current output under endogenous investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 409-430, February.
    2. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2011. "Heterogeneous expectations, Taylor rules and the merit of monetary policy inertia," MPRA Paper 31004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Anna Agliari & George Vachadze, 2011. "Homoclinic and Heteroclinic Bifurcations in an Overlapping Generations Model with Credit Market Imperfection," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 241-260, October.
    4. Olivier Loisel, 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Working papers 161, Banque de France.

  50. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  51. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 125-134, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  52. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  53. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 550-566, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  54. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  55. Evans, George W. & Guesnerie, Roger, 2003. "Coordination On Saddle-Path Solutions: The Eductive Viewpoint—Linear Univariate Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 42-62, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  56. George William Evans, 2001. "Expectations in Macroeconomics Adaptive versus Eductive Learning," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 52(3), pages 573-582.

    Cited by:

    1. Jason Lennard & Finn Meinecke & Solomos Solomou, 2023. "Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 844-870, August.
    2. Cars Hommes & Stefanie J. Huber & Daria Minina & Isabelle Salle, 2024. "Learning in a Complex World Insights from an OLG Lab Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 283, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    3. Mariam Camarero & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "External imbalances and recoveries," Working Papers 1912, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    4. YiLi Chien & In-Koo Cho & B. Ravikumar, 2021. "Stability and Equilibrium Selection in Learning Models: A Note of Caution," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 477-488, October.
    5. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
    6. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2011. "Stock market volatility and learning," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121739, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Clemens Buchen & Alberto Palermo, 2022. "Adverse Selection, Heterogeneous Beliefs, and Evolutionary Learning," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 343-362, June.
    8. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Multivariate Models," DELTA Working Papers 2003-28, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    9. Inkoo Cho & Noah Williams, 2024. "Collusive Outcomes Without Collusion," Papers 2403.07177, arXiv.org.
    10. Schaling, E. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2004. "Heterogeneous Information about the Term Structure of Interest rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Forecast Targeting," Discussion Paper 2004-14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Volha Audzei & Sergey Slobodyan, 2024. "Dynamic Sparse Restricted Perceptions Equilibria," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp792, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    12. Ashwin, Julian & Beaudry, Paul & Ellison, Martin, 2025. "Neural network learning for nonlinear economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
    14. Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W. & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2004. "Heterogenous information about the term structure, least-squares learning and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2004, Bank of Finland.
    15. Datta, Bikramaditya & Sethi, Rajiv, 2023. "The dynamics of leverage and the belief distribution of wealth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 20-31.
    16. Ren Wang & Wenhao Jia & Ran Sun, 2024. "“Words” and “actions” of environmental policy and their effects on regional green development: an empirical research based on China’s 88 cities," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(10), pages 26909-26944, October.
    17. Tasneem, Faria & Waters, George, 2017. "Forecasting MISO Electricity Prices: A Threshold Autoregressive Approach with Load Data," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), October.
    18. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0808, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    19. Damdinsuren, Erdenebulgan & Zaharieva, Anna, 2018. "Expectation Formation and Learning in the Labour Market with On-the-Job Search and Nash Bargaining," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 604, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    20. Weinig, Max & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2024. "Going viral: Inflation narratives and the macroeconomy," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 86, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    21. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2020. "Market selection with an endogenous state," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 51-59.
    22. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    23. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Macroeconomics 0405008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Colin C. Caines, 2016. "Can Learning Explain Boom-Bust Cycles In Asset Prices? An Application to the US Housing Boom," International Finance Discussion Papers 1181, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Tomohiro Hirano & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2025. "Growth and Fluctuations Economies with Land Speculation," CIGS Working Paper Series 25-012E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    26. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    27. James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2006. "Monetary policy, determinacy, and learnability in a two-block world economy," Working Papers 2006-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    28. Mikhail Anufriev & John Duffy & Valentyn Panchenko, "undated". "Planar Beauty Contests," Discussion Papers 2019-06, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    29. Williams, Noah, 2022. "Learning and equilibrium transitions: Stochastic stability in discounted stochastic fictitious play," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    30. Mathieu Pedemonte & Hiroshi Toma & Esteban Verdugo, 2023. "Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience," Working Papers 23-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    31. Bruce McGough & George Evans, 2004. "Optimal Constrained Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 134, Society for Computational Economics.
    32. Roger Guesnerie, 2008. "Macroeconomic and monetary policies from the "eductive" viewpoint," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586749, HAL.
    33. Andrea Alati & Johannes J. Fischer & Maren Froemel & Ozgen Ozturk, 2024. "Firms’ Sales Expectations and Marginal Propensity to Invest," Discussion Papers 2424, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    34. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Mr. Marco Airaudo & Salvatore Nisticò & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2015. "Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2015/016, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Marcin Wolski, 2015. "Modern Monetary Rules: Any Role for Financial Targeting?☆," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 367-403, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    37. Elizabeth Bersson & Patrick Hürtgen & Matthias Paustian, 2024. "Expectations Formation, Sticky Prices, and the ZLB," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 365-393, March.
    38. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Evans, George W. & Hommes, Cars & McGough, Bruce & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 44-63.
    40. Holtemöller, Oliver & Schult, Christoph, 2018. "Expectation formation, financial frictions, and forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    41. Adriana Cornea‐Madeira & João Madeira, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of Switching Expectations in UK Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 651-673, June.
    42. Kariuki, Caroline & Tiriongo, Samuel, 2021. "Market expectations versus outcomes: Sectoral credit market analysis in Kenya," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 48, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    43. Carlos Huertas Campos & Eliana González Molano & Cristhian Ruiz Cardozo, 2015. "La formación de expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 880, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    44. Anufriev, Mikhail & Duffy, John & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2022. "Learning in two-dimensional beauty contest games: Theory and experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    45. Acharya, Viral & Crosignani, Matteo & Eisert, Tim & Eufinger, Christian, 2023. "How do supply shocks to inflation generalize? Evidence from the pandemic era in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 18530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Severin Reissl, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, forecasting behaviour and policy experiments in a hybrid Agent-based Stock-flow-consistent model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 251-299, January.
    47. Chenyu Hou, 2023. "Learning and Subjective Expectation Formation: A Recurrent Neural Network Approach," Discussion Papers dp23-13, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    48. Alina Barnett & Martin Ellison, 2013. "Learning by Disinflating," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 731-746, June.
    49. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
    50. Cars Hommes & Sebastian Poledna, 2023. "Analyzing and forecasting economic crises with an agent-based model of the euro area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-013/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    51. Javier García-Cicco, 2022. "Alternative Monetary-Policy Instruments and Limited Credibility: An Exploration," Working Papers 115, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    52. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2018. "Demographics, monetary policy, and the zero lower bound," NBP Working Papers 284, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    53. Evans, David & Li, Jungang & McGough, Bruce, 2023. "Local rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 216-236.
    54. Hansen, Stephen & Mcmahon, Michael, 2011. "First impressions matter: signalling as a source of policy dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121736, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    55. Arifovic, Jasmina & Yıldızoğlu, Murat, 2019. "Learning the Ramsey outcome in a Kydland & Prescott economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 191-208.
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    218. Cars Hommes & Mario He & Sebastian Poledna & Melissa Siqueira & Yang Zhang, 2022. "CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model," Staff Working Papers 22-51, Bank of Canada.
    219. George W. Evans & Bruce Mcgough, 2018. "Interest‐Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 939-965, August.
    220. Yuemei Ji, 2023. "Shock Therapy in Transition Countries: A Behavioral Macroeconomic Approach," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 483-510, September.
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    222. Philip N. Jefferson, 2024. "Economic Uncertainty and the Evolution of Monetary Policymaking: A speech at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, Washington, D.C., April 16, 2024," Speech 98082, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    223. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in a hybrid New Keynesian model with a cost channel," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2007, Bank of Finland.
    224. Anat Bracha & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Inflation Levels and (In)Attention," Working Papers 22-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    225. Tolga Özden, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 714, DNB.
    226. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Equilibrium stability in a nonlinear cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    227. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2016. "Macroeconomic Policy in DGSE and Agent-Based Models Redux," Working Papers hal-03459348, HAL.
    228. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2005. "Ways of learning in a simple economic setting: a comparison," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2005-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    229. Xiao Wei & Xu Junyi, 2019. "Bounded rationality and the ineffectiveness of big push policies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-21, June.
    230. Biagio Bossone, 2025. "The Essential Role of Conventional Beliefs in Economics: Keynesian Unemployment Despite Price Flexibility," Working Papers PKWP2504, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    231. Mingli Chen & Andreas Joseph & Michael Kumhof & Xinlei Pan & Xuan Zhou, 2021. "Deep Reinforcement Learning in a Monetary Model," Papers 2104.09368, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    232. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Adaptive Learning and Macroeconomic Inertia in the Euro Area," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 579-599, June.
    233. John C. Williams, 2023. "Effective dialogue and well anchored inflation expectations: essential tools for navigating challenging times," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Central banking in the Americas: Lessons from two decades, volume 127, pages 149-162, Bank for International Settlements.
    234. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2016. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge in a Small Open Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 28, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    235. Martin Guzman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 2021. "Pseudo-wealth and Consumption Fluctuations [Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 372-391.
    236. Taro Ikeda, 2017. "Asymmetric Preferences and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1831-1838, December.
    237. John Duffy, 2022. "Why macroeconomics needs experimental evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 5-29, January.
    238. Jiaoying Pei, 2024. "Minimizing Errors or Surprises?," Papers 2404.08908, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    239. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Rafael Wouters, 2023. "Professional Survey Forecasts and Expectations in DSGE Models," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp766, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    240. Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    241. Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2021. "Policy and Macro Signals from Central Bank Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 255-296, June.
    242. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04095385, HAL.
    243. Severin Reissl, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers, expectations and learning in a macroeconomic agent‐based model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1704-1729, October.
    244. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    245. Duffy, John & Shin, Michael, 2024. "Heterogeneous experience and constant-gain learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
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    248. Ashutosh Vashishtha, 2020. "Cobweb price dynamics under the presence of agricultural futures market: theoretical analysis," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(2), pages 131-162, June.
    249. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2021. "Learning when to say no," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    250. Katsuhiro Oshima, 2021. "Heterogeneous beliefs, monetary policy, and stock price volatility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 79-125, March.
    251. Thomas A. Lubik & Massimiliano Marzo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Perceptions in a Behavioral New Keynesian Model," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 22(2), pages 255-287, November.
    252. Piero Ferri, 2007. "The Labour Market And Technical Change In Endogenous Cycles," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 609-633, November.
    253. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    254. Meggiorini, Greta, 2023. "Behavioral New Keynesian Models: An empirical assessment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
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    257. Waters, George A., 2022. "The many faces of the taylor rule for advanced undergraduate macroeconomics," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

  57. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001. "Convergence In Monetary Inflation Models With Heterogeneous Learning Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  58. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2000. "Convergence for difference equations with vanishing time-dependence, with applications to adaptive learning," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(3), pages 717-725.

    Cited by:

    1. Atanas Christev, 2007. "Learning Hyperinflations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 126, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    2. Damjanovic, Tatiana & Girdėnas, Šarūnas & Liu, Keqing, 2015. "Stationarity of econometric learning with bounded memory and a predicted state variable," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 93-96.
    3. Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 1999. "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 456, Department of Economics.
    4. Van Zandt, Timothy & Lettau, Martin, 2001. "Robustness of Adaptive Expectations as an Equilibrium Selection Device," CEPR Discussion Papers 2882, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Bao, Te & Duffy, John, 2016. "Adaptive versus eductive learning: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 64-89.

  59. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1998. "Convergence of learning algorithms without a projection facility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 59-86, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  60. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, S., 1998. "Stochastic gradient learning in the cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 333-337, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  61. Evans, Geroge W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Romer, Paul, 1998. "Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 495-515, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  62. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 1998. "Calculation, Adaptation And Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 156-182, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2017. "Empirical calibration of adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 219-237.
    2. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Iovino, Luigi, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Guse, Eran A., 2010. "Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 42-57, May.
    4. Marcet, A. & Nicolini, J.P., 1997. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," Papers 9721, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    5. Basse, Tobias & Wegener, Christoph, 2022. "Inflation expectations: Australian consumer survey data versus the bond market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 416-430.
    6. Mariana Garcia-Schmidt & Michael Woodford, 2015. "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis," Working Papers Series 18, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    7. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Mitra, K., 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0705, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Branch, William A., 2002. "Local convergence properties of a cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 63-85, November.
    9. Matthew S. Wilson, 2018. "Rationality with preference discovery costs," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 85(2), pages 233-251, August.
    10. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2008. "Replicator dynamics in a Cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 224-244, February.
    11. Granato, J. & Guse, E. & Sunny Wong, M.C., 2006. "Learning from the Expectations of Others," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0605, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Volkan Hacioglu, 2015. "Bayesian Expectations and Strategic Complementarity: Implications for Macroeconomic Stability," Post-Print hal-01404402, HAL.
    13. Eran Guse, 2004. "Learning with Heterogeneous Expectations in an Evolutionary World," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 99, Society for Computational Economics.
    14. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2025. "Robust optimal monetary policies in behavioral New Keynesian DSGE models," Working Papers in Public Economics 261, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    15. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 8072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jasmina Arifovic & Herbert Dawid & Christophe Deissenberg & Olena Kostyshyna, 2008. "Learning Benevolent Leadership in a Heterogenous Agents Economy," Working Papers halshs-00339761, HAL.
    17. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "Robust Optimal Policies in a Behavioural New Keynesian Model," JRC Research Reports JRC111603, Joint Research Centre.
    18. Colucci, Domenico & Valori, Vincenzo, 2005. "Error learning behaviour and stability revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, March.
    19. Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.

  63. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1998. "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(1), pages 23-44.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  64. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1996. "Least squares learning with heterogeneous expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 197-201, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    2. Shu-Heng Chen & Chung-Chih Liao & Pei-Jung Chou, 2008. "On the plausibility of sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(1), pages 25-41, June.
    3. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
    4. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "Learning and coordination with dispersed information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-33.
    5. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2023. "Estimation of heuristic switching in behavioral macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Granato, J. & Guse, E. & Sunny Wong, M.C., 2006. "Learning from the Expectations of Others," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0605, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Giusto, Andrea, 2014. "Adaptive learning and distributional dynamics in an incomplete markets model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 317-333.
    8. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October.
    9. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: Learning and predictor choice dynamics," Post-Print hal-00796301, HAL.
    10. Mason, Charles F. & Phillips, Owen R., 2001. "Dynamic learning in a two-person experimental game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1305-1344, September.
    11. Eran Guse, 2004. "Learning with Heterogeneous Expectations in an Evolutionary World," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 99, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Eran Guse & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2022. "Communication and Learning: The Bilateral Information Transmission in the Cobweb Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 693-723, August.
    13. Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
    14. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04095385, HAL.

  65. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Atanas Christev, 2007. "Learning Hyperinflations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 126, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    2. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis," Staff Reports 198, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime, 2001. "On learning to forecast in an endogenous growth model with externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1139-1156, August.
    4. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    5. George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Paul Romer, 1996. "Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Eusepi, Stefano, 2007. "Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1115-1131, May.
    7. Damdinsuren, Erdenebulgan & Zaharieva, Anna, 2018. "Expectation Formation and Learning in the Labour Market with On-the-Job Search and Nash Bargaining," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 604, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    8. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 27, Econometric Society.
    9. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August.
    10. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
    11. Marcet, A. & Nicolini, J.P., 1997. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," Papers 9721, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    12. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Policy interaction, expectations, and the liquidity trap," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 557, Econometric Society.
    14. Marek Weretka & Daniel Quint, 2022. "Slope-takers in anonymous markets," GRAPE Working Papers 64, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    15. Brock, William A. & de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Expectational diversity in monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 725-759, June.
    16. LeBaron, Blake, 2001. "Evolution And Time Horizons In An Agent-Based Stock Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 225-254, April.
    17. Chen Xiaohong & White Halbert, 2002. "Asymptotic Properties of Some Projection-based Robbins-Monro Procedures in a Hilbert Space," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-55, April.
    18. Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 1999. "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 456, Department of Economics.
    19. Stefano Eusepi, 2008. "Central bank transparency and nonlinear learning dynamics," Staff Reports 342, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Martin Ellison & Andrew Scott, 2009. "Learning and Price Volatility in Duopoly Models of Resource Depletion," OxCarre Working Papers 025, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    21. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Maldonado, Wilfredo Fernando Leiva, 2001. "A note on learning chaotic sunspot equilibrium," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 423, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    22. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
    23. Michele Berardi & John Duffy, 2010. "Real-Time, Adaptive Learning via Parameterized Expectations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 147, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    24. Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Alternative Monetary Rules for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Canada," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 466, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Oct 2000.
    25. Negroni, Giorgio, 2005. "Eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with identical fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 420-443, November.
    26. Seppo Honkapohja & George W. Evans, 1996. "Convergence of Learning Algorithms without a Projection Facility," CESifo Working Paper Series 109, CESifo.
    27. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jihye Jeon, 2018. "Firms' Beliefs and Learning: Models, Identification, and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers tecipa-620, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    28. Dudek, Maciej K., 2010. "A consistent route to randomness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 354-381, January.
    29. Chen, Xiaohong & White, Halbert, 1998. "Nonparametric Adaptive Learning with Feedback," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 190-222, September.
    30. Pooya Molavi, 2019. "Macroeconomics with Learning and Misspecification: A General Theory and Applications," 2019 Meeting Papers 1584, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    31. Negroni, Giorgio, 2005. "Eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 931-952, May.
    32. Reiner Franke & Tim Nesemann, 1999. "Two destabilizing strategies may be jointly stabilizing," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 1-18, February.
    33. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
    34. In-Koo Cho, 2001. "Convergence of Least Squares Learning in Self-Referential Discontinuous Stochastic Models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(9), pages 1.
    35. Stefano Eusepi, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and the Liquidity Trap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 373-397, March.
    36. Wilfredo Leiva, 1999. "Adaptive learning in models with lagged variables," Economics Working Papers 413, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    37. Branch, William A., 2016. "Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-42.
    38. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova & Sergey Slobodyan, 2006. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous—Time Approximation," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp285, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    39. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    40. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 190, Society for Computational Economics.

  66. Evans, George & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "Information, forecasts, and measurement of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 233-254, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  67. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Learning, convergence, and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 1071-1098, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, "undated". "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime, 2001. "On learning to forecast in an endogenous growth model with externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1139-1156, August.
    3. Ennis, Huberto M. & Keister, Todd, 2005. "Government policy and the probability of coordination failures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 939-973, May.
    4. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 27, Econometric Society.
    5. Lin, Yo-Long, 2017. "Is the price path learnable under a fixed exchange rate regime?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 355-366.
    6. Roberts, Mark A., 1997. "The effect of the time-structure of information on the expectational-stability of rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 157-162, December.
    7. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 557, Econometric Society.
    8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    9. James Bullard & George Evans, 2004. "Near-Rational Exuberance," 2004 Meeting Papers 465, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 May 2003.
    11. Audzei, Volha & Slobodyan, Sergey, 2022. "Sparse restricted perceptions equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Sergey Slobodyan, 2000. "Sunspot Fluctuations: A Way Out of a Development Trap?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1720, Econometric Society.
    13. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1996. "Least squares learning with heterogeneous expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 197-201, November.
    14. Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Bounded rationality in macroeconomics A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 509-518, June.
    15. Martin Ellison & Andrew Scott, 2009. "Learning and Price Volatility in Duopoly Models of Resource Depletion," OxCarre Working Papers 025, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    16. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
    17. Patir, Assaf, 2019. "Synchronization in Sunspot Models," MPRA Paper 95720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.
    19. Seppo Honkapohja & George W. Evans, 1996. "Convergence of Learning Algorithms without a Projection Facility," CESifo Working Paper Series 109, CESifo.
    20. Halberstadt, Arne, 2015. "The term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy: Learning about economic dynamics from a FAVAR," Discussion Papers 02/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
    22. António Caleiro, 2007. "What Does Economics Assume About People?s Knowledge? Who knows?," Economics Working Papers 04_2007, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    23. Bullard, James & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2010. "A Model Of Near-Rational Exuberance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 166-188, April.
    24. Charemza, Wojciech & Díaz, Carlos & Makarova, Svetlana, 2019. "Quasi ex-ante inflation forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 994-1007.
    25. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2016. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge in a Small Open Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 28, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    26. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova & Sergey Slobodyan, 2006. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous—Time Approximation," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp285, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    27. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 190, Society for Computational Economics.

  68. Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 157, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
    3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria near an Indeterminate Steady State," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Apr 2002.
    4. George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Paul Romer, 1996. "Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Damdinsuren, Erdenebulgan & Zaharieva, Anna, 2018. "Expectation Formation and Learning in the Labour Market with On-the-Job Search and Nash Bargaining," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 604, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    6. Bruce McGough & George Evans, 2004. "Optimal Constrained Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 134, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 27, Econometric Society.
    8. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August.
    9. Barucci, Emilio, 2001. "Fading memory learning in a class of forward-looking models with an application to hyperinflation dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 233-252, April.
    10. Enrique Urbano Arellano & Xinyang Wang, 2023. "Social Learning of General Rules," Papers 2310.15861, arXiv.org.
    11. Desgranges, Gabriel & Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Expectations Coordination On A Sunspot Equilibrium: An Eductive Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 7-41, February.
    12. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 557, Econometric Society.
    13. Brock, William A. & de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Expectational diversity in monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 725-759, June.
    14. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy and stable indeterminacy with inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-7, April.
    15. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    16. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 May 2003.
    17. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 1999. "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 456, Department of Economics.
    19. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
    20. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Maldonado, Wilfredo Fernando Leiva, 2001. "A note on learning chaotic sunspot equilibrium," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 423, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    21. Arifovic, Jasmina & Evans, George W. & Kostyshyna, Olena, 2020. "Are sunspots learnable? An experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    22. Jasmina Arifovic & George Evans & Olena Kostyshyna, 2013. "Are Sunspots Learnable? An Experimental Investigation in a Simple General-Equilibrium Model," Staff Working Papers 13-14, Bank of Canada.
    23. Flam, Sjur Didrik & Mirman, Leonard J., 1998. "Groping for optimal growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 191-207, September.
    24. Julien, Ludovic A., 2003. "Chômage d’équilibre, équilibres multiples et défauts de coordination," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 523-562, Décembre.
    25. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.
    26. Seppo Honkapohja & George W. Evans, 1996. "Convergence of Learning Algorithms without a Projection Facility," CESifo Working Paper Series 109, CESifo.
    27. Jasmina Arifovic, 2019. "Evolution of sunspot like behavior in the agent based economies of bank runs," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 365-389, March.
    28. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hung, Hing & Zhu, Peiyuan, 2006. "An analysis of the cobweb model with boundedly rational heterogeneous producers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 750-768, December.
    29. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Peiyuan Zhu, 2003. "Fading Memory Learning in the Cobweb Model with Risk Averse Heterogeneous Producers," Research Paper Series 108, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    30. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
    31. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October.
    32. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 503-536, September.
    33. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    34. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    35. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2007. "Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycle models under adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 879-903, April.
    36. Wilfredo Leiva, 1999. "Adaptive learning in models with lagged variables," Economics Working Papers 413, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    37. Zhou Lu & Te Bao & Xiaohua Yu, 2021. "Gender and Bubbles in Experimental Markets with Positive and Negative Expectation Feedback," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1307-1326, April.
    38. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova & Sergey Slobodyan, 2006. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous—Time Approximation," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp285, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    39. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    40. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 190, Society for Computational Economics.

  69. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Convergence of least squares learning to a non-stationary equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 131-136, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2015. "Learning, hypothesis testing, and rational-expectations equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 93-105.
    2. Brock, William A. & de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Expectational diversity in monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 725-759, June.
    3. Kuang, Pei & Yao, Yao, 2017. "Are rational explosive solutions learnable?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 62-66.

  70. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "On the preservation of deterministic cycles when some agents perceive them to be random fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 705-721.

    Cited by:

    1. Guido Ascari & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Coherence without Rationality at the ZLB," Working Papers 784, DNB.
    2. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
    4. Joao Ricardo Faria, 2004. "Small departures from rationality magnify fluctuations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(5), pages 1-5.
    5. Nunes, Ricardo, 2009. "Learning The Inflation Target," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 167-188, April.
    6. Evans, David & Li, Jungang & McGough, Bruce, 2023. "Local rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 216-236.
    7. Ginburgh, V. & Michel, P., 1992. "Optimal Policy Business Cycle," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92-01, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    8. Ramon Marimon & Stephen E. Spear & Shyam Sunder, 1993. "Expectationally-driven market volatility: An experimental study," Economics Working Papers 21, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. GINSBURGH, V. & MICHEL, Ph., 1998. "Optimal policy business cycles," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1311, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    10. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    11. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Consistent expectations and misspecification in stochastic non-linear economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 659-676, April.
    12. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Equilibrium stability in a nonlinear cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    13. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

  71. Evans, George W, 1993. "Sectoral Imbalance and Unemployment in the United Kingdom: 1963-84," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 440-456, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Danny Quah, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0275, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Ali Rıza ÖZDEMİR & Burak DARICI, 2015. "Which Group of Individuals are subjected to Get Long-Term Unemployed During and After a Recession? Evidence from TurkeyAuthor-Name: Hacı Mehmet TAŞÇI," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 23(24).
    3. Maria E. Canon & Mingyu Chen & Elise Marifian, 2013. "Labor mismatch in the Great Recession: a review of indexes using recent U.S. data," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 95(May), pages 237-272.
    4. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Aggregate and regional disaggregate fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2081, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

  72. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1993. "Learning and economic fluctuations: Using fiscal policy to steer expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 595-602, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Yangru Wu & Junxi Zhang, 2003. "Uniqueness and Stability of Equilibria in a Model with Endogenous Markups and Labor Supply," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 177-191, May.
    2. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1996. "Endogenous public policy and multiple equilibria," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 653-662, April.
    3. Patrick M. Emerson & Shawn D. Knabb, 2013. "Bounded rationality, expectations, and child labour," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(3), pages 900-927, August.

  73. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1993. "Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.

    Cited by:

    1. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Atanas Christev, 2007. "Learning Hyperinflations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 126, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 488, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Williams, Noah, 2022. "Learning and equilibrium transitions: Stochastic stability in discounted stochastic fictitious play," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Marcet, A. & Nicolini, J.P., 1997. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," Papers 9721, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    7. Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2020. "Information weighting under least squares adaptive learning," Working Papers 2020-04, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    8. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Koursaros, Demetris & Otto, Glenn, 2024. "Asymmetry in inflation persistence under inflation targeting," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 2006. "Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 249-264, March.
    10. Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2005. "Money and Prices in Models of Bounded Rationality in High Inflation Economies," Working Papers 217, Barcelona School of Economics.
    11. Kaushik Mitra, "undated". "Is more data better?," Discussion Papers 00/44, Department of Economics, University of York.
    12. Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 1999. "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 456, Department of Economics.
    13. Martin Ellison & Andrew Scott, 2009. "Learning and Price Volatility in Duopoly Models of Resource Depletion," OxCarre Working Papers 025, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    14. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Tan, Kang Yong, 2009. "Learning and international transmission of shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1033-1052, September.
    15. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin J. Lansing, 1999. "Fiscal policy, increasing returns, and endogenous fluctuations," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Klaus Adam, 2007. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, April.
    17. Francisco Blasques & Falk Bräuning & Iman Van Lelyveld, 2016. "A dynamic network model of the unsecured interbank lending market," Working Papers 16-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    18. Ellis, Christopher J., 1998. "Multiple Equilibria and Rules of Thumb," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 27-54, January.
    19. Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 1996. "Learning, regime switches, and equilibrium asset pricing dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 979-1006.
    20. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
    21. Waters, George A., 2007. "Regime changes, learning and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 255-282, June.
    22. Hughes Hallett, A. J. & Piscitelli, Laura, 2002. "Testing for hysteresis against nonlinear alternatives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 303-327, December.

  74. Evans George W. & Guesnerie Roger, 1993. "Rationalizability, Strong Rationality, and Expectational Stability," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 632-646, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  75. Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 1992. "Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 207-224, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Shea, Paul, 2015. "Red herrings and revelations: does learning about a new variable worsen forecasts?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 395-406.
    2. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Brock, W.A., 1995. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    4. Evans, George & Gibbs, Christopher & McGough, Bruce, 2021. "A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast," Working Papers 2021-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    5. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review Of Alternative Expectations Regimes In Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, And Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-19, October.
    6. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Iovino, Luigi, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Brock, W.A. & Dindo, P.D.E. & Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Adaptive Rational Equilibrium with Forward Looking Agents, fortcoming in International Journal of Economic Theory (IJET) 2006, special issue in honor of Jean-Michel Grandmont," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-15, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    8. Anderlini, Luca & Canning, David, 2001. "Structural Stability Implies Robustness to Bounded Rationality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 395-422, December.
    9. Kelly, David L. & Shorish, Jamsheed, 2000. "Stability of Functional Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 215-250, December.
    10. Zhengyuan Gao & Christian M. Hafner, 2019. "Looking Backward and Looking Forward," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-24, June.
    11. Guse, Eran A., 2010. "Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 42-57, May.
    12. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
    13. Grimaud, Alex, 2021. "Precautionary saving and un-anchored expectations," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 08/2021, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    14. Mariana Garcia-Schmidt & Michael Woodford, 2015. "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis," Working Papers Series 18, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    15. Ginburgh, V. & Michel, P., 1992. "Optimal Policy Business Cycle," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92-01, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    16. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Mitra, K., 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0705, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Antulio N. Bomfim, "undated". "\"Forecasting the Forecasts of Others:\" Expectational Heterogeneity and Aggregate Dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    18. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    19. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
    20. Brock, William A. & de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Expectational diversity in monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 725-759, June.
    21. Riccardo Bianchi Vimercati & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Joao Guerreiro, 2021. "Fiscal Stimulus with Imperfect Expectations: Spending vs. Tax Policy," NBER Working Papers 29134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Chetan Dave, 2011. "Are Investment Expectations Rational, Adaptive Or Regressive?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 212-225, January.
    23. Joachim Zietz & Ghassem Homaifar, 1994. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(3), pages 461-475, September.
    24. Stéphane Dupraz, 2017. "A Kinked-Demand Theory of Price Rigidity," Working papers 656, Banque de France.
    25. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    26. Elias, Christopher J., 2022. "Adaptive learning with heterogeneous expectations in an estimated medium-scale New Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    27. Ardalan, Kavous, 2018. "Neurofinance versus the efficient markets hypothesis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 170-176.
    28. Tortorice, Daniel L, 2018. "The business cycle implications of fluctuating long run expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 266-291.
    29. GINSBURGH, V. & MICHEL, Ph., 1998. "Optimal policy business cycles," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1311, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    30. Hommes, C.H. & Lux, T., 2009. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forcast Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    31. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2001. "Heterogeneous forecasts and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 145-161, February.
    32. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006. "Survey Expectations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 715-776, Elsevier.
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    353. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Francisco J. Lozano & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2021. "Prosperity or Real Estate Bubble? Exuberance Probability Index of Real Housing Prices in Chile," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-24, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rankin, Neil, 1993. "Nominal Rigidity And Monetary Uncertainty," Economic Research Papers 268612, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    2. Keith Blackburn & Alessandra Pelloni, 2005. "Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 262-282, April.

  79. Evans, George W., 1989. "A measure of the U.S. output gap," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 285-289.

    Cited by:

    1. Slevin, Geraldine, 2001. "Potential Output and the Output Gap in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/01, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
    3. Francisco J. Goerlich Gisbert, 1992. "Un test alternativo de la hipótesis de sustitución intertemporal del trabajo," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 16(2), pages 259-280, May.
    4. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," MPRA Paper 91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
    6. Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July.
    7. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    8. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2007-04, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    9. Hyeon-Seung Huh, 2006. "A forecast based NAIRU measure of the US," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 177-182.

  80. Evans, George W., 1989. "The fragility of sunspots and bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 297-317, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    3. Ennis, Huberto M. & Keister, Todd, 2005. "Government policy and the probability of coordination failures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 939-973, May.
    4. Evans, George W & McGough, Bruce, 2018. "Equilibrium selection, observability and backward-stable solutions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-10.
    5. Guse, Eran A., 2010. "Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 42-57, May.
    6. Heinemann, Maik, 1997. "Convergence of Adaptive Learning and the Concept of Expectational Stability in Linear Rational Expectations Models with Multiple Equilibria," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-207, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    7. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    8. Emilio Barucci & Leonardo Landi, 1995. "Learning non-rational expectations equilibria," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 18(1), pages 15-31, March.
    9. Guocheng Xiang & Juan Tang & Shuntian Yao, 2022. "The Characteristics of the Housing Market and the Goal of Stable and Healthy Development in China’s Cities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, October.
    10. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Corbet, Shaen, 2020. "A systematic review of the bubble dynamics of cryptocurrency prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
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    15. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Online Appendix to "Code and data files for "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?"," Online Appendices 22-197, Review of Economic Dynamics.
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    24. Granato, J. & Guse, E. & Sunny Wong, M.C., 2006. "Learning from the Expectations of Others," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0605, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    33. Petia Ivanova, 2007. "The Fiscal Theory for the Cost Level and Monetarism," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 60-79.
    34. Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2019. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2019, Bank of Finland.
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    36. Kuang, Pei & Yao, Yao, 2017. "Are rational explosive solutions learnable?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 62-66.
    37. Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
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    40. Zheng-Zheng Li & Ran Tao & Chi-Wei Su & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2019. "Does Bitcoin bubble burst?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 91-105, January.
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    42. Lindstrom, Tomas, 1998. "A fuzzy design of the willingness to invest in Sweden," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-17, July.

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    1. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
    2. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    4. Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "Business survey forecasts and measurement of output trends in five European economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 52, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. James DeNicco & Christopher A. Laincz, 2018. "Jobless Recovery: A Time Series Look at the United States," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(1), pages 3-25, March.
    6. Dufourt, Frédéric & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2009. "Expected Inflation, Sunspots Equilibria and Persistent Unemployment Fluctuations," IZA Discussion Papers 4302, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Roger Perman & Stephan Gaetan & Christophe Tavera, 2013. "Okun's law - a meta analysis," Working Papers 1311, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    9. Dohyun CHUN & Hoon CHO & Doojin RYU, 2018. "Macroeconomic Structural Changes in a Leading Emerging Market: The Effects of the Asian Financial Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 22-42, December.
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    11. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2012. "The Importance of a Good Indicator for Global Excess Demand," GEMF Working Papers 2012-15, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
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    25. Omay, Tolga & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Stewart, Chris, 2021. "Is There Really Hysteresis in OECD Countries’ Unemployment Rates? New Evidence Using a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 107691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2021.
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    33. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2001. "Test procedures for unit roots in time series with level shifts at unknown time," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,39, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    34. Ho‐Chuan (River) Huang & Ya‐Kai Chang, 2005. "INVESTIGATING OKUN's LAW BY THE STRUCTURAL BREAK WITH THRESHOLD APPROACH: EVIDENCE FROM CANADA," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(5), pages 599-611, September.
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    43. Giovanni Razzu & Carl Singleton, 2014. "Gender and the Business Cycle: A Stocks and Flows Analysis of US and UK Labour Market States," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2014-10, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    44. Zakaria El Faiz & Said Tounsi, 2019. "Les Fluctuations Cycliques De La Production Et Du Chômage Au Maroc : Une Approche Sectorielle De La Loi D’Okun," Working Papers 1336, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barucci, Emilio & Landi, Leonardo, 1996. "Speculative dynamics with bounded rationality learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 284-300, June.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    3. Bai, Yuting & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2013. "Infrequent Fiscal Stabilization," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-17, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis in models without money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 145-164.
    5. Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "The relationship between DSGE and VAR models," CeMMAP working papers CWP21/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Bennett T. McCallum, 2008. "Determinacy, Learnability, And Plausibility In Monetary Policy Analysis: Additional Results," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 502, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Olivier Loisel, 2004. "Monetary policy rules to preclude booms and busts," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    8. Ramon Marimon & Stephen E. Spear & Shyam Sunder, 1993. "Expectationally-driven market volatility: An experimental study," Economics Working Papers 21, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Francesco Carravetta & Marco Sorge, 2010. "A “Nearly Ideal” Solution to Linear Time-Varying Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 331-353, April.
    10. Adrian Penalver & Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Deflationary Bias of the ZLB and the FED s Strategic Response," Working papers 843, Banque de France.
    11. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Online Appendix to "Code and data files for "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?"," Online Appendices 22-197, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    12. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures: Selecting among Multiple Discretionary Equilibria," MPRA Paper 24616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2013. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-18, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    14. McCallum, Bennett T., 2004. "On the relationship between determinate and MSV solutions in linear RE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 55-60, July.
    15. Caleiro, António, 2008. "How Can Voters Classify an Incumbent under Output Persistence," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-16, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 12441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Bennett T. McCallum, 2012. "A Continuity Refinement for Rational Expectations Solutions," NBER Working Papers 18323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Barrell, Ray & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen & Garratt, Anthony, 1997. "Learning about monetary union: An analysis of bounded rational learning in European labor markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 469-489, October.
    19. Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "Is the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Learnable?," NBER Working Papers 9961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Kaifu Zhang & Miklos Sarvary, 2015. "Differentiation with User-Generated Content," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 898-914, April.
    21. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "Indeterminancy from inflation forecast targeting : problem or pseudo-problem?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Win), pages 25-51.
    22. Boyd Iii, J.H. & Dotsey, M., 1990. "Interest Rate Rules And Nominal Determinacy," RCER Working Papers 222, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    23. Hall, S. G. & Garratt, A., 1995. "Model consistent learning and regime switching in the London Business School model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 87-95, April.
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    25. Wenzelburger, Jan, 2006. "Learning in linear models with expectational leads," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 854-884, November.
    26. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2014. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," NBER Working Papers 20070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
    28. António Caleiro, 2007. "What Does Economics Assume About People?s Knowledge? Who knows?," Economics Working Papers 04_2007, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    29. Petia Ivanova, 2007. "The Fiscal Theory for the Cost Level and Monetarism," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 60-79.
    30. Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2019. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2019, Bank of Finland.
    31. António Caleiro, 2005. "How to Classify a Government? Can a Neural Network do it?," Economics Working Papers 9_2005, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    32. Blake, Andrew P. & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Yates, Tony, 2013. "Monetary Policy Delegation and Equilibrium Coordination," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-54, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
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    Cited by:

    1. Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1985. "The Impossibility of Rational Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 1615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bjorn Wahlroos & Tom Berglund, 1984. "Stock Returns," Discussion Papers 598, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    3. Heinemann, Maik, 1997. "Convergence of Adaptive Learning and the Concept of Expectational Stability in Linear Rational Expectations Models with Multiple Equilibria," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-207, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    4. Marco M. Sorge, 2013. "A Note on Information Flows and Identification of News Shocks Models," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 56(1), pages 28-38.
    5. Christian Gouriéroux & Joann Jasiak & Alain Monfort, 2016. "Stationary Bubble Equilibria in Rational Expectation Models," Working Papers 2016-31, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    6. Schaefer, Daniel & Singleton, Carl, 2018. "Unemployment and econometric learning," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 277-296.
    7. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 May 2003.
    8. Boyd Iii, J.H. & Dotsey, M., 1990. "Interest Rate Rules And Nominal Determinacy," RCER Working Papers 222, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    9. Fanelli, Luca, 2012. "Determinacy, indeterminacy and dynamic misspecification in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 153-163.
    10. Wenzelburger, Jan, 2006. "Learning in linear models with expectational leads," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 854-884, November.
    11. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October.
    12. C. R. McKenzie & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Comparing Tests of Autoregressive Versus Moving Average Errors in Regression Models Using Bahadur's Asymptotic Relative Efficiency," ISER Discussion Paper 0537, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    13. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2007. "Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycle models under adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 879-903, April.
    14. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2004. "PPP rules, macroeconomic (In)stability and learning," International Finance Discussion Papers 814, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2009. "Ppp Exchange Rate Rules, Macroeconomic (In)Stability, And Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1103-1128, November.
    16. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2001. "Expectational Stability of Resonant Frequency Sunspot Equilibria," CESifo Working Paper Series 497, CESifo.

  84. Evans, George W, 1986. "A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 621-636, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2009. "A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003–2006," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(6), pages 869-880.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the South African Stock Market," Working Papers 201624, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Bettendorf, Timo & Chen, Wenjuan, 2013. "Are there bubbles in the Sterling-dollar exchange rate? New evidence from sequential ADF tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 350-353.
    4. Qin XIAO & Randolph TAN GEE KWANG, 2010. "Kalman Filter Estimation of Property Price Bubbles in Seoul," EcoMod2004 330600164, EcoMod.
    5. Edouard Djeutem & Ken Kasa, 2012. "Robustness and Exchange Rate Volatility," Discussion Papers dp12-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    6. Levin, Jay H., 1997. "Stabilization policy, exchange rate expectations, and international transmission," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-40, February.
    7. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 1993. "Teorías del tipo de cambio: una panorámica," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9307, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    9. Francesca Pancotto & Giorgio Addessi & Nicola Auteri, 2024. "Soccer Bubble: Is There a Speculative Bubble in the Price of International Soccer Players?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 535-556, June.
    10. Ahmed, Mumtaz & Bashir, Uzma & Ullah, Irfan, 2021. "Testing for explosivity in US-Pak Exchange Rate via Sequential ADF Procedures," MPRA Paper 109607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Daan Steenkamp, 2017. "How bubbly is the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    12. Wang, Miao & Wong, M. C. Sunny, 2015. "Rational speculative bubbles in the US stock market and political cycles," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-9.
    13. Murphy, Austin, 2008. "An empirical investigation of investor expectations in the currency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 108-133.
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    15. Charles R. Bean, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 31-52, Fall.
    16. Dettoni, Robinson & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "Testing the hypothesis of duration dependence in the U.S. housing market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    17. Roger J. Bowden, 1990. "Predictive Disequilibria and the Short Run Dynamics of Asset Prices," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 15(1), pages 65-87, June.
    18. Blau, Benjamin M., 2017. "The volatility of exchange rates and the non-normality of stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 41-52.
    19. Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Foreign exchange: macro puzzles, micro tools," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 51-69.
    20. Otavio De Medeiros, 2005. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Brazil," Finance 0503019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2003. "Evidence of Fueling of the 2000 New Economy Bubble by Foreign Capital Inflow: Implications for the Future of the US Economy and its Stock Market," Papers cond-mat/0306496, arXiv.org.
    22. Chakraborty, Avik, 2009. "Learning, The Forward Premium Puzzle, And Market Efficiency," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S1), pages 31-57, May.
    23. Efthymios Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2012. "A New Test for Rational Speculative Bubbles using Forward Exchange Rates: The Case of the Interwar German Hyperinflation," Working Papers 18599597, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    24. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "When the Bubble Bursts: Monetary Policy Rules and Foreign Exchange Market Behavior," Working Papers 2000-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    25. Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2011. "The Forward Discount Puzzle: Identi cation of Economic Assumptions," Working Papers 1112, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    26. Ahmad, Mahyudin, 2012. "Duration dependence test for rational speculative bubble: the strength and weakness," MPRA Paper 42156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    28. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
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    30. Emekter, Riza & Jirasakuldech, Benjamas & Snaith, Sean M., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange excess returns: Tests of asymmetry," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 179-192, July.
    31. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233409, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
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    33. Saumitra, Bhaduri, 2012. "Applying approximate entropy (ApEn) to speculative bubble in the stock market," MPRA Paper 38015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg & Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "A Resolution of the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: Imperfect Knowledge and Long Swings," Discussion Papers 08-31, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    35. Mohammad Zare & Omid Naghshineh A. & Erfan Salavati & Adel Mohammadpour, 2021. "An agent-based model and detect price manipulation based on intraday transaction data with simulation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(43), pages 4931-4949, September.
    36. Dettoni, Robinson & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2024. "Stock market prices and Dividends in the US: Bubbles or Long-run equilibria relationships?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    37. Brett Olsen & Jeffrey Stokes, 2015. "Is Farm Real Estate The Next Bubble?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 355-376, April.
    38. Andrea Bobula & Giuseppe De Arcangelis, 1997. "Speculative bubbles and excess returns in European exchange rates. Evidence from a nonparametric approach," Working Papers in Public Economics 23, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
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    40. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2016. "Are there Bubbles in Exchange Rates? Some New Evidence from G10 and Emerging Markets Countries," Working Papers in Economics 16/05, University of Waikato.
    41. Yvette Harman & Thomas Zuehlke, 2004. "Duration dependence testing for speculative bubbles," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 147-154, June.
    42. Maldonado, Wilfredo L. & Tourinho, Octávio A.F. & Valli, Marcos, 2012. "Exchange rate bubbles: Fundamental value estimation and rational expectations test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1033-1059.
    43. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    44. Douglas R. Emery, 2022. "Negative bubbles and the market for “dreams”: “Lemons” in the looking glass," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 5-16, March.

  85. George Evans, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-1233.

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    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "Consistent Expectations, Rational Expectations, Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies, and Least-Squares Learnability," NBER Working Papers 9218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Market Efficiency and Crises: Don’t Throw the Baby out with the Bathwater," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/239874, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Atanas Christev, 2007. "Learning Hyperinflations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 126, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. Cars Hommes & Stefanie J. Huber & Daria Minina & Isabelle Salle, 2024. "Learning in a Complex World Insights from an OLG Lab Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 283, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    5. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime, 2001. "On learning to forecast in an endogenous growth model with externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1139-1156, August.
    6. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Multivariate Models," DELTA Working Papers 2003-28, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    7. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    8. Hector Calvo Pardo, 2005. "Are the antiglobalists right? Gains-from-trade without a walrasian auctioneer," Working Papers halshs-00590718, HAL.
    9. Guse, Eran A., 2010. "Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 42-57, May.
    10. Bennett T. McCallum, "undated". "Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models," GSIA Working Papers 1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    11. Roger Guesnerie, 2008. "Macroeconomic and monetary policies from the "eductive" viewpoint," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586749, HAL.
    12. Heinemann, Maik, 1997. "Convergence of Adaptive Learning and the Concept of Expectational Stability in Linear Rational Expectations Models with Multiple Equilibria," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-207, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    13. Kenneth Kasa, 2000. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others in the Frequency Domain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 726-756, October.
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    16. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
    17. Olivier Loisel, 2004. "Monetary policy rules to preclude booms and busts," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    18. Hervé Le Bihan & Magali Marx & Julien Matheron, 2021. "Inflation tolerance ranges in the new keynesian model," Working Papers 2142, Banco de España.
    19. Roger Guesnerie & Pedro Jara-Moroni, 2009. "Expectational coordination in simple economic contexts: concepts and analysis with emphasis on strategic substitutabilities," PSE Working Papers halshs-00574957, HAL.
    20. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Inflation targeting and the liquidity trap," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    21. Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "How Did Financial-Crisis-Based Criticisms of Market Efficiency Get It So Wrong?," Working Papers CEB 09-048.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    22. Cédric Tille & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Discussion: Indeterminacy, Causality, and the Foundations of Monetary Policy Analysis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 121-130, March.
    23. Fabio Busetti & Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno, 2014. "Deflationary shocks and de-anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 252, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    24. Adrian Penalver & Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Deflationary Bias of the ZLB and the FED s Strategic Response," Working papers 843, Banque de France.
    25. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Online Appendix to "Code and data files for "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?"," Online Appendices 22-197, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    26. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures: Selecting among Multiple Discretionary Equilibria," MPRA Paper 24616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2013. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-18, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    28. Barnett, William & Chen, Guo, 2015. "Bifurcation of Macroeconometric Models and Robustness of Dynamical Inferences," Studies in Applied Economics 32, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
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    32. Martin ZUMPE, 2010. "Monetary Policy Rules, Learning and Stability: a Survey of the Recent Literature (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2010-01, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    33. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 12441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Barrell, Ray & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen & Garratt, Anthony, 1997. "Learning about monetary union: An analysis of bounded rational learning in European labor markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 469-489, October.
    35. Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "Is the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Learnable?," NBER Working Papers 9961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    45. Pierre-André Maugis, 2010. "Market Efficiencies and Market Risks," Post-Print halshs-00544324, HAL.
    46. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion," NBER Working Papers 7087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Maciej K. Dudek, 2005. "Expectation Formation and Endogenous Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 263, Society for Computational Economics.
    48. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(May), pages 203-217.
    49. Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "The Unique Minimum State Variable RE Solution is E-Stable in All Well Formulated Linear Models," NBER Working Papers 9960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2014. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," NBER Working Papers 20070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Petia Ivanova, 2007. "The Fiscal Theory for the Cost Level and Monetarism," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 60-79.
    52. Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2019. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2019, Bank of Finland.
    53. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A., 2014. "Structural Stability of the Generalized Taylor Rule," MPRA Paper 58737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    61. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
    62. Zhao, Mingjun, 2007. "Monetary policy under misspecified expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1278-1299, April.
    63. Wang, Miao & Wong, M.C. Sunny, 2005. "Learning dynamics in monetary policy: The robustness of an aggressive inflation stabilizing policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 143-151, March.

  86. Evans, George, 1985. "Bottlenecks and the Phillips Curve: A Disaggregated Keynesian Model of Inflation, Output, and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(378), pages 345-357, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Eva M. Köberl, 2011. "Kapazitätsauslastung, Produktionshemmnisse und Preisanpassungen unter dem Mikroskop," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 5(4), pages 43-54, December.
    2. George Kapetanios & Simon Price & Menelaos Tasiou & Alexia Ventouri, 2020. "State-level wage Phillips curves," CAMA Working Papers 2020-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Evans, George W., 2011. "The Stagnation Regime of the New Keynesian Model and Current US Policy," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-06, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Andersson, Malin & Masuch, Klaus & Schiffbauer, Marc, 2009. "Determinants of inflation and price level differentials across the euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1129, European Central Bank.
    5. Sarah Lein & Eva Koeberl, 2009. "Capacity utilisation, constraints and price adjustments under the microscope," KOF Working papers 09-239, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2007. "When Do Firms Adjust Prices? Evidence from Micro Panel Data," KOF Working papers 07-160, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    7. Magda Kandil, 2010. "The asymmetric effects of demand shocks: international evidence on determinants and implications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2127-2145.
    8. Kevin S. Nell, 2006. "Structural Change And Nonlinearities In A Phillips Curve Model For South Africa," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 600-617, October.
    9. Richard Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "The Intermittent Phillips Curve: Finding a Stable (But Persistence-Dependent) Phillips Curve Model Specification," Working Papers 19-09R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 14 Feb 2023.
    10. Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Douglas Laxton & Tamta Sopromadze & Mariam Tchanturia & Ana Nizharadze & Sergo Gadelia & Giorgi Gigineishvili & Jared Laxton, 2024. "Core Inflation Requiem: Paving the Way for a Dual-Component CPI in FPAS Central Banks," NBG Working Papers 01/2024, National Bank of Georgia.

  87. Evans, George & Gulamani, Riyaz, 1984. "Tests for Rationality of the Carlson-Parkin Inflation Expectations Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2018. "Rational overconfidence and social security: subjective beliefs, objective welfare," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(2), pages 179-229, March.
    2. Puah, Chin-Hong & Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun & Jais, Mohamad, 2011. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis on the Retail Trade Sector Using Survey Data from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 36699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Vaona, Andrea, 2014. "The price-price Phillips curve in small open economies and monetary unions: Theory and empirics," Kiel Working Papers 1904, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2009. "Rational Overconfidence and Social Security," Discussion Paper Series 0916, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    5. Campbell, Carl M., 2014. "The formation of wage expectations in the effort and quit decisions of workers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 313-322.
    6. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
    7. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy In Europe," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(2), pages 122-132, April.
    8. Harry Garretsen & Klaas Knot & Erwin Nijsse, 1998. "Learning about fundamentals: The widening of the French ERM bands in 1993," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(1), pages 25-41, March.
    9. Egginton, Don M., 1999. "Testing the efficiency and rationality of City forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-66, February.
    10. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    11. Aleksandra Rutkowska & Magdalena Szyszko, 2022. "New DTW Windows Type for Forward- and Backward-Lookingness Examination. Application for Inflation Expectation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 701-718, February.
    12. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2017. "Exchange rate pass through, cost channel to monetary policy transmission, adaptive learning, and the price puzzle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 69-82.
    13. Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2012. "Rationality of business operational forecasts: evidence from Malaysian distributive trade sector," MPRA Paper 37599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Pick, Andreas, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 685-707.
    15. Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Consumers' inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe," Serie Research Memoranda 0020, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    16. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Shazali, Abu Mansor, 2011. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Business Expectations: Implications from the Malaysian Agricultural Sector," MPRA Paper 36661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nielsen, Carsten Krabbe, 2008. "On rationally confident beliefs and rational overconfidence," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 381-404, May.

Chapters

  1. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Patrick A. Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2013. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," AMSE Working Papers 1333, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 05 Jun 2013.

  2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 5, pages 145-170, Central Bank of Chile.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542, Elsevier.

    Cited by:

    1. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, "undated". "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Keith Forrester, 2004. "‘The Quiet Revolution’?," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 18(2), pages 413-420, June.
    3. Atanas Christev, 2007. "Learning Hyperinflations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 126, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime, 2001. "On learning to forecast in an endogenous growth model with externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1139-1156, August.
    5. James B. Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2003. "Determinacy, learnability, and monetary policy inertia," Working Papers 2000-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Giuseppe Ferrero, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Transition to Rational Expectations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 499, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Baranowski, Ryan, 2015. "Adaptive learning and monetary exchange," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    8. Georges, Christophre, 2003. "Adjustment costs, learning, and indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 101-116, October.
    9. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    10. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 27, Econometric Society.
    11. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis in models without money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 145-164.
    12. Maldonado, Wilfredo Leiva & Tourinho, Octavio Augusto Fontes & Valli, Marcos, 2007. "Endogenous foreign capital flow in a CGE model for Brazil: The role of the foreign reserves," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 259-276.
    13. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    14. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2005. "Determinacy, learnability, and discretionary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 181-185, May.
    15. Maik Heinemann, 2003. "Are Rational Expectations Equilibria with Private Information Eductively Stable?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 267, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Mendoza, Enrique & Boz, Emine, 2010. "Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Olivier Loisel, 2004. "Monetary policy rules to preclude booms and busts," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    18. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 557, Econometric Society.
    19. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational heuristics? Expectations and behaviors in evolving economies with heterogeneous interacting agents," SciencePo Working papers Main halshs-03046977, HAL.
    20. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Marco Airaudo, 2005. "Learning about which measure of inflation to target," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 176, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. Luis‐Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta, 2008. "Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1033-1063, August.
    22. Bennett T. McCallum, 2008. "Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: Is New Keynesian Analysis Critically Flawed?," NBER Working Papers 14534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Inflation targeting and the liquidity trap," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    24. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2006. "Determinacy and expectational stability of equilibrium in a monetary sticky-price model with Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 827-846, May.
    25. Gersbach, Hans & Schniewind, Achim, 2005. "Awareness of General Equilibrium Effects and Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 5012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    27. James Bullard & George Evans, 2004. "Near-Rational Exuberance," 2004 Meeting Papers 465, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    29. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-24.
    30. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland.
    31. Kaushik Mitra, "undated". "Is more data better?," Discussion Papers 00/44, Department of Economics, University of York.
    32. Branch, William A., 2002. "Local convergence properties of a cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 63-85, November.
    33. Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 1999. "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 456, Department of Economics.
    34. Tuinstra, Jan, 2003. "Beliefs equilibria in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 145-164, February.
    35. Llosa Gonzalo & Tuesta Vicente, 2007. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when the Cost Channel Matters," Working Papers 2007-014, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    36. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
    37. Thomas Norman, 2012. "Learning Within Rational-Expectations Equilibrium," Economics Series Working Papers 591, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    38. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 1998. "Why do monetary policies matter? : An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model," Papers 98-47, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    39. C.H. Hommes & J.H. Sonnemans & J. Tuinstra & H. van de Velde, 2003. "Learning in Cobweb Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-020/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    40. Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Adaptive expectations coordination in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 117-140, October.
    41. Julien, Ludovic A., 2003. "Chômage d’équilibre, équilibres multiples et défauts de coordination," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 523-562, Décembre.
    42. Sergey Slobodyan, 2002. "Indeterminacy, Sunspots, and Development Traps," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 255, Society for Computational Economics.
    43. Robert Somogyi & Janos Vincze, 2011. "Price Rigidity and Strategic Uncertainty An Agent-based Approach," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1135, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    44. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2001. "Dynamics of Beliefs and Learning Under aL Processes - The Heterogeneous Case," Research Paper Series 55, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    45. Negroni, Giorgio, 2005. "Eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with identical fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 420-443, November.
    46. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "2009 International Conference "Financial System and Monetary Policy Implementation," Keynote Speech, The Role of "Determinacy" in Monetary Policy Analysis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 25-34, November.
    47. Hyun Park, 2009. "Ramsey fiscal policy and endogenous growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 39(3), pages 377-398, June.
    48. Maciej K. Dudek, 2005. "Expectation Formation and Endogenous Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 263, Society for Computational Economics.
    49. Park, Hyun & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2004. "Indeterminacy and fiscal policies in a growing economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 645-660, January.
    50. Xue-Zhong He, 2004. "Dynamics of Beliefs and Learning Under aL-Processes—The Homogeneous Case," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Economic Complexity, pages 363-390, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    51. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hung, Hing & Zhu, Peiyuan, 2006. "An analysis of the cobweb model with boundedly rational heterogeneous producers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 750-768, December.
    52. Negroni, Giorgio, 2005. "Eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 931-952, May.
    53. Chatterji, Shurojit & Lobato, Ignacio N., 2015. "On divergent dynamics with ordinary least squares learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-9.
    54. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Peiyuan Zhu, 2003. "Fading Memory Learning in the Cobweb Model with Risk Averse Heterogeneous Producers," Research Paper Series 108, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    55. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October.
    56. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 503-536, September.
    57. Dave, Chetan & Feigenbaum, James, 2007. "Precautionary Learning and Inflationary Biases," MPRA Paper 14876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    58. Bullard, James & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2010. "A Model Of Near-Rational Exuberance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 166-188, April.
    59. Lavan Mahadeva, 2007. "A model of market surprises," Bank of England working papers 327, Bank of England.
    60. Kaushik Mitra, "undated". "Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting Under Adaptive Learning," Discussion Papers 00/60, Department of Economics, University of York.
    61. Orlando Gomes, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Heterogeneous Expectations," Macroeconomics 0409023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    62. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2004. "PPP rules, macroeconomic (In)stability and learning," International Finance Discussion Papers 814, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    63. Antonio Caleiro, 2006. "How is confidence related to unemployment in Portugal?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 887-890.
    64. Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto, 2001. "Ten Years of Inflation Targeting: Design, Performance, Challenges," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 131, Central Bank of Chile.
    65. Haider, Adnan & Hameed, Shahzad & Wajid, Abdul, 2010. "Income Convergence Hypothesis: A Regional Comparison of selected East and South Asian Economies," MPRA Paper 23739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    66. Basdevant, Olivier, 2005. "Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1074-1089, December.
    67. Driskill, Robert, 2006. "Multiple equilibria in dynamic rational expectations models: A critical review," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 171-210, January.
    68. Hirose, Yasuo, 2008. "Learnability and equilibrium selection under indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3459-3477, November.
    69. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Stability of Competitive Equilibria with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Learning," Research Paper Series 37, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    70. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 190, Society for Computational Economics.

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