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The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World

  • Roger E.A. Farmer

    ()

    (UCLA Economics - University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Carine Nourry

    ()

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM), IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - Ministère de l'Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alain Venditti

    ()

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM), EDHEC Business School - Département Comptabilité, Droit, Finance et Economie)

Existing literature continues to be unable to offer a convincing explanation for the volatility of the stochastic discount factor in real world data. Our work provides such an explanation. We do not rely on frictions, market incompleteness or transactions costs of any kind. Instead, we modify a simple stochastic representative agent model by allowing for birth and death and by allowing for heterogeneity in agents' discount factors. We show that these two minor and realistic changes to the timeless Arrow-Debreu paradigm are sufficient to invalidate the implication that competitive financial markets efficiently allocate risk. Our work demonstrates that financial markets, by their very nature, cannot be Pareto efficient, except by chance. Although individuals in our model are rational; markets are not.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00796672.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00796672
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  1. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Working Papers 91-59, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Roger Farmer & Carine Nourry & Alain Venditti, 2009. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons: The Stochastic Case," NBER Working Papers 15025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Chao Gu & Randall Wright, 2011. "Endogenous Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 17510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  5. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
  6. Shell, Karl, 1971. "Notes on the Economics of Infinity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 1002-11, Sept.-Oct.
  7. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Wright, Randall, 2013. "Liquidity and asset-market dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 275-294.
  8. Malinvaud, Edmond, 1987. "The Overlapping Generations Model in 1947," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 103-05, March.
  9. Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2010. "Theoretical Notes on Bubbles and the Current Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8038, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  11. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2006. "Bubbles and capital flow volatility: Causes and risk management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-53, January.
  12. Eugene F. Fama, 1963. "Mandelbrot and the Stable Paretian Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 420.
  13. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2011. "Bubbly Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 16750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. James Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance," CDMA Working Paper Series 200902, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  16. Farmer, Roger E A, 2012. "Qualitative Easing: How it Works and Why it Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 9153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  18. Barsky, Robert B & De Long, J Bradford, 1993. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(2), pages 291-311, May.
  19. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 18413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, 08.
  21. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  22. Roger E.A. Farmer & Carine Nourry & Alain Venditti, 2009. "Debt, deficits and finite horizons: the stochastic case," Working Papers halshs-00439336, HAL.
  23. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-44, September.
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