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The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World

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Abstract

Existing literature continues to be unable to offer a convincing explanation for the volatility of the stochastic discount factor in real world data. Our work provides such an explanation. We do not rely on frictions, market incompleteness or transactions costs of any kind. Instead, we modify a simple stochastic representative agent model by allowing for birth and death and by allowing for heterogeneity in agents’ discount factors. We show that these two minor and realistic changes to the timeless Arrow-Debreu paradigm are sufficient to invalidate the implication that competitive financial markets efficiently allocate risk. Our work demonstrates that financial markets, by their very nature, cannot be Pareto efficient, except by chance. Although individuals in our model are rational; markets are not.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger E.A. Farmer & Carine Nourry & Alain Venditti, 2013. "The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World," AMSE Working Papers 1311, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 26 Feb 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1311
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2013-03-16 00:50:06

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Farmer, Roger E A & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2016. "The Theory of Unconventional Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11196, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Roger Farmer, 2014. "Asset Prices in a Lifecycle Economy," NBER Working Papers 19958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Campos Dias de Sousa, Ricardo Emanuel & Howden, David, 2015. "The Efficient Market Conjecture," MPRA Paper 79792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2018. "Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 106-124, October.
    5. Farmer, Roger, 2013. "The Natural Rate Hypothesis: an idea past its sell-by date," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(3), pages 244-256.
    6. de la Torre, Augusto & Ize, Alain, 2013. "The foundations of macroprudential regulation : a conceptual roadmap," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6575, The World Bank.
    7. Dmitry Plotnikov, 2014. "Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 14/77, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2016. "Pricing Assets in an Economy with Two Types of People," NBER Working Papers 22228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Beniamino Moro, 2013. "The Run On Repo and the Liquidity Shortage Problems of the Current Global Financial Crisis: Europe vs. The US," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 41-77, January.
    10. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "Particularitǎţi ale evoluţiei variabilelor financiare
      [Some particularities of the financial variables evolution]
      ," MPRA Paper 73481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Sep 2016.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inefficient markets; heterogeneous agents; overlapping generations; sunspots; extrinsic uncertainty; excess volatility.;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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