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Bounded rationality and strategic complementarity in a macroeconomic model: policy effects, persistence, and multipliers

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Abstract

Motivated by recent developments in the bounded rationality and strategic complementarity literatures, we examine an intentionally simple and stylized aggregative economic model when the assumptions of fully rational expectations and no strategic interactions are relaxed. We show that small deviations from rational expectations, taken alone, lead only to small deviations from classical policy-ineffectiveness, but that the situation can change dramatically when strategic complementarity is introduced. Strategic complementarity magnifies the effects of even small departures from rational expectations, producing equilibria with policy effectiveness, output persistence, and multiplier effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Antulio N. Bomfim & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Bounded rationality and strategic complementarity in a macroeconomic model: policy effects, persistence, and multipliers," Working Papers 97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:97-18
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    1. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:1:p:39-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Anderlini, Luca & Canning, David, 2001. "Structural Stability Implies Robustness to Bounded Rationality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 395-422, December.
    3. Ripamonti, Alexandre, 2013. "Rational Valuation Formula (RVF) and Time Variability in Asset Rates of Return," MPRA Paper 79460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Seonghwan Oh & Michael Waldman, 2005. "The Index of Leading Economic Indicators as a Source of Expectational Shocks," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 75-95, Winter.
    5. Anderlini, Luca & Canning, David, 2000. "Structural stability and robustness to bounded rationality," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0002, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    6. Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco, 2019. "Beliefs formation and the puzzle of forward guidance power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 20-32.
    7. Thijssen, J.J.J., 2003. "Investment under uncertainty, market evolution and coalition spillovers in a game theoretic perspective," Other publications TiSEM 672073a6-492e-4621-8d4a-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. François R. Velde, 2009. "Chronicle of a Deflation Unforetold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(4), pages 591-634, August.
    9. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    10. Tobias Rötheli, 2005. "Applied Welfare Economics with Bounded Rationality: Public Policies Toward Remote Sensing," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 39-47, February.
    11. Weder, Mark, 2004. "Near-rational expectations in animal spirits models of aggregate fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 249-265, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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