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Determinacy and Indeterminacy in Monetary Policy Rules with Money

  • John Keating

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

  • Andrew Lee Smith

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

Does Friedman’s k-percent rule guarantee a unique equilibrium outcome? We show analytically the answer to this question is sensitive to the method of aggregation. Focusing on broad measures of money, we show that fixing the growth rate of the true monetary aggregate will generate a unique rational expectations equilibrium. Since the true monetary aggregate is parametric, we show this determinacy result extends to the non-parametric Divisia monetary aggregate growth rule. Interestingly, Friedman’s proposal to fix the growth rate of the broad simple-sum monetary aggregate is shown to result in indeterminacy stemming from this aggregate’s inaccuracy in tracking the true monetary aggregate. Determinacy regions of interest rate rules reacting to the growth rate of monetary aggregates are also discussed and a novel Taylor principle is shown to hold for such rules when the monetary aggregate is accurately measured. All of these results are presented in the framework of the canonical New-Keynesian model.

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File URL: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/2013Papers/201310.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 201310.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201310
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  1. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
  2. Barnett, William A., 2012. "Getting it Wrong: How Faulty Monetary Statistics Undermine the Fed, the Financial System, and the Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262016915, June.
  3. William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & W. Erwin Diewert, 2005. "The Theory of Monetary Aggregation (book front matter)," Macroeconomics 0511008, EconWPA.
  4. John Keating & Andrew Lee Smith, 2013. "Price Versus Financial Stability: A role for money in Taylor rules?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201307, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  5. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
  6. McCallum, Bennett T., 1998. "Solutions to linear rational expectations models: a compact exposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 143-147, November.
  7. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2010. "The Barnett Critique After Three Decades: A New Keynesian Analysis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 736, Boston College Department of Economics.
  8. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-83, October.
  9. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  10. William A Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2011. "Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., volume 2, number 7580, 05.
  11. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Another Look at Long-Run Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 6597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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