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Innovation-Led Transitions in Energy Supply

Author

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  • Derek Lemoine

Abstract

Generalizing models of directed technical change, I show that complementarities between innovations and factors of production (here, energy resources) can drive transitions away from a dominant sector. In a calibrated numerical implementation, the economy gradually transitions energy supply from coal to gas and then to renewable energy, even in the absence of policy. The welfare-maximizing tax on carbon emissions is J-shaped, immediately redirects most research to renewables, and rapidly transitions energy supply directly to renewables. The emission tax is twice as valuable as either the welfare-maximizing research subsidy or the welfare-maximizing mandate to use renewable resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Derek Lemoine, 2024. "Innovation-Led Transitions in Energy Supply," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 29-65, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:16:y:2024:i:1:p:29-65
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200369
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    Cited by:

    1. Jo, Ara & Miftakhova, Alena, 2024. "How constant is constant elasticity of substitution? Endogenous substitution between clean and dirty energy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Ara Jo & Christos Karydas, 2023. "Firm Heterogeneity, Industry Dynamics and Climate Policy," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 23/378, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    3. David Popp, 2019. "Environmental policy and innovation: a decade of research," CESifo Working Paper Series 7544, CESifo.
    4. Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani & Filippo Natoli, 2025. "The macroeconomic effects of a greener technology mix," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1482, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Zhu, Zhishuang & Liao, Hua & Liu, Li, 2021. "The role of public energy R&D in energy conservation and transition: Experiences from IEA countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Katinka Holtsmark & Katinka Kristine Holtsmark, 2024. "Can Revenue Recycling Kill Green Technology?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11510, CESifo.
    7. Xu, Qi & Liu, Kui, 2024. "Hero or Devil: A comparison of different carbon tax policies for China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    8. David Popp, 2019. "Environmental Policy and Innovation: A Decade of Research," NBER Working Papers 25631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Campiglio, Emanuele & Spiganti, Alessandro & Wiskich, Anthony, 2024. "Clean innovation, heterogeneous financing costs, and the optimal climate policy mix," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. Ara Jo & Alena Miftakhova, 2022. "How Constant is Constant Elasticity of Substitution? Endogenous Substitution between Clean and Dirty Energy," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 22/369, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    11. Wiskich, Anthony, 2024. "A carbon tax versus clean subsidies: Optimal and suboptimal policies for the clean transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Katharine Heyl & Felix Ekardt & Lennard Sund & Paula Roos, 2022. "Potentials and Limitations of Subsidies in Sustainability Governance: The Example of Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-26, November.
    13. Hassan, Mahmoud & Lee, Ji-Yong & Rouge, Luc & Kouzez, Marc, 2025. "The impact of green public finance and green taxes on environmental and non-environmental innovation," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Ara Jo & Christos Karydas, 2022. "Firm Heterogeneity, Industry Dynamics and Climate Policy," Department of Economics Working Papers 94/22, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    15. André Grimaud & Luc Rouge, 2025. "Technology Shocks, Directed Technical Progress and Climate Change," Working Papers hal-05022723, HAL.
    16. Wagener, Florian & de Zeeuw, Aart, 2021. "Stable partial cooperation in managing systems with tipping points," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    17. Wiskich, Anthony, 2021. "A comment on innovation with multiple equilibria and "The environment and directed technical change"," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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