Stabilizing through Poor Information
This paper studies the effect of asymmetric information on equilibrium stability in a class of linear models where the actual state depends on the forecasts about it. Stability is deffined by the so-called eductive criterion which relies on common knowledge of rationality. The main result is that stability obtains when the proportion of uninformed agents is high enough. The expectational behavior of these agents indeed displays more inertia. This behavior, and then the actual outcome, are therefore easier to predict. This result is linked to the issue of informational efficiency. Extensions to cases with higher order uncertainty, additional agents heterogeneity, and sunspots are also considered.
|Date of creation:||2008|
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- Nimark, Kristoffer, 2008.
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- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Expectations, learning and monetary policy : an overview of recent research," Research Discussion Papers 32/2007, Bank of Finland.
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- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
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- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
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- Christian Hellwig, "undated". "Monetary Business Cycle Models: Imperfect Information (Review Article, March 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 377, UCLA Department of Economics. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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