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Stabilizing through Poor Information

  • Gabriel DESGRANGES
  • Stéphane GAUTHIER

    ()

    (THEMA, Université de Cergy-Pontoise; 33, boulevard du Port, 95011 Cergy-Pontoise cedex, France - ENSAE and CREST; 3 avenue Pierre Larousse, 92245 Malako¤ cedex,France)

This paper studies the effect of asymmetric information on equilibrium stability in a class of linear models where the actual state depends on the forecasts about it. Stability is deffined by the so-called eductive criterion which relies on common knowledge of rationality. The main result is that stability obtains when the proportion of uninformed agents is high enough. The expectational behavior of these agents indeed displays more inertia. This behavior, and then the actual outcome, are therefore easier to predict. This result is linked to the issue of informational efficiency. Extensions to cases with higher order uncertainty, additional agents heterogeneity, and sunspots are also considered.

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Paper provided by THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise in its series THEMA Working Papers with number 2008-32.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2008-32
Contact details of provider: Postal: 33, boulevard du port - 95011 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex
Phone: 33 1 34 25 60 63
Fax: 33 1 34 25 62 33
Web page: http://thema.u-cergy.fr
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  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
  2. R. Guesnerie, 2002. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 439-480, March.
  3. Nimark, Kristoffer, 2008. "Dynamic pricing and imperfect common knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 365-382, March.
  4. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  5. Guesnerie, Roger, 1992. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1254-78, December.
  6. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May.
  7. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  8. Christian Hellwig, . "Monetary Business Cycle Models: Imperfect Information (Review Article, March 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 377, UCLA Department of Economics.
  9. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  10. Gabriel Desgranges & Pierre-Yves Geoffard & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Do Prices Transmit Rationally Expected Information?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 124-153, 03.
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