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Privileged Information Exacerbates Market Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Desgranges

    (THEMA)

  • Stéphane Gauthier

    () (CREST)

Abstract

We study how asymmetric information affects market volatility in a linear setup where the outcome is determined by forecasts about this same outcome. The unique rational expectations equilibrium will be stable when it is the only rationalizable solution. It has been established in the literature that stability obtains when the sensitivity of the outcome to agents' forecasts is less than 1, provided that this sensitivity is common knowledge. Relaxing this common knowledge assumption, instability obtains when the proportion of agents who a priori know the sensitivity is large, and the uninformed agents believe it is possible that the sensitivity is greater than 1

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Desgranges & Stéphane Gauthier, 2011. "Privileged Information Exacerbates Market Volatility," Working Papers 2011-14, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2011-14
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. DeGennaro, Ramon P. & Shrieves, Ronald E., 1997. "Public information releases, private information arrival and volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 295-315, December.
    2. Nimark, Kristoffer, 2008. "Dynamic pricing and imperfect common knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 365-382, March.
    3. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    4. Jansen, David-Jan & de Haan, Jakob, 2007. "Were verbal efforts to support the euro effective? A high-frequency analysis of ECB statements," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 245-259, March.
    5. Pearce, David G, 1984. "Rationalizable Strategic Behavior and the Problem of Perfection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 1029-1050, July.
    6. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    7. Christian Hellwig, "undated". "Monetary Business Cycle Models: Imperfect Information (Review Article, March 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 377, UCLA Department of Economics.
    8. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
    9. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    10. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric Information; Common Knowledge; Eductive Learning; Rational Expectations; Rationalizability; Volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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